Amber Mafia - DP3

A-Deirdre wrote:

Jailor must out their target.

Yeah, I 100% think that before hammer Jailor should out a target.

Question: why?

We know scum have no roles to interfere with wills at this point. Why not have the Jailor leave their target in their will? Worst case scenario, they die and reveal their target. Best case, they survive and tell us.

If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role

True but its not great in the situation.

Today 4 town 2 mafia

We hit a scum, then its 4v1 going into the night with 2 town confirmed

-If they no kill

4v1 D4 in a 3p PoE with 2 confirmed town

If they get the misslynch, then they kill 1 confirmed town that night making it 2v1 D5

Now they get a D5 with a town kingmaker in a 50/50 having to convince 2 players

-If they kill

3v1 D4 in a 3p PoE with 1 confirmed town

They get the misslynch, then they kill anyone for the win that night

The functional difference is if they want to fight 2 days or 1 given them not killing just makes it more of a fight. And if they are roleblocked they die anyways.

In either situation we always eleminate whoever the Jailor said they would role block and just thank the scum for giving town a confirmed kingmaker.

If that makes sense

A-Deirdre wrote:

Jailor must out their target.

Yeah, I 100% think that before hammer Jailor should out a target.

Question: why?

We know scum have no roles to interfere with wills at this point. Why not have the Jailor leave their target in their will? Worst case scenario, they die and reveal their target. Best case, they survive and tell us.

Valid, but what is the advantage?

I feel like I should say less. At this point I am borderline coaching the mafia on things they may not figure out. Was about to say something else.

I think there’s a strong benefit to outing themselves now. We will have two confirmed town + another player confirmed to not be the lord of chaos.

If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role

So that's assuming we have an investigative role. If there is Trump Master in play and we're talking about everyone claiming today, then we can revisit this idea after they claim.

Im fine with waiting 24 hours or going now. I do feel they should out before the end of the day.

Also will say now tommorow I have a friends birthday party and Saturday taking my mom out for Mothers Day. Expect chunks of time where I will be ignoring the game. (Saying it now so people dont view my absence as game related)

Valid, but what is the advantage?

I guess there's not a lot, but at least scum won't know that they're the target going into the NP. Not that they can anything about it anyway. It will matter more if the Jailor doesn't out themselves this DP.

A-Deirdre wrote:

If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role

So that's assuming we have an investigative role. If there is Trump Master in play and we're talking about everyone claiming today, then we can revisit this idea after they claim.

If they existed I do not know why they would not have outed D2. I could see withholding the role result they got but flatly claiming they used their 1 shot and X player is town would be the obvious play.

I would be very suspicious of such a claim today and would demand some wild seeding to buy it.

A-Deirdre wrote:

If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role

So that's assuming we have an investigative role. If there is Trump Master in play and we're talking about everyone claiming today, then we can revisit this idea after they claim.

That’s not what I’m saying.

we lynch scum. There’s a NK. This means the person they jailed is town

I would say more, but I think you are right there is one. If I explained how a detail about it I would just be handing mafia a play book on what to do at that point which is why I just need to shut up >.<

A-Llewella wrote:

A-Deirdre wrote:

If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role

So that's assuming we have an investigative role. If there is Trump Master in play and we're talking about everyone claiming today, then we can revisit this idea after they claim.

If they existed I do not know why they would not have outed D2. I could see withholding the role result they got but flatly claiming they used their 1 shot and X player is town would be the obvious play.

I would be very suspicious of such a claim today and would demand some wild seeding to buy it.

Agreed 100%

That’s not what I’m saying.

we lynch scum. There’s a NK. This means the person they jailed is town

True, and we discover that after the NP instead of before it. I don't see the difference.

If they existed I do not know why they would not have outed D2. I could see withholding the role result they got but flatly claiming they used their 1 shot and X player is town would be the obvious play.

I would be very suspicious of such a claim today and would demand some wild seeding to buy it.

Same thought.

I would say more, but I think you are right there is one. If I explained how a detail about it I would just be handing mafia a play book on what to do at that point which is why I just need to shut up >.<

Yeah, I'm not planning on going more into depth on this, either. Just saying it's something we should be considering.

Where I’m at right now.

Living Players

A-Bleys

A-Brand

A-Caine

A-Llewella

A-Random

Conf Town

A-Deirdre

A-Caine(to myself)

POE

A-Bleys

A-Brand

A-Llewella

A-Random

I will re read the game tonight and re evaluate everyone in this Poe. Bleys was and is one of my strongest SRs. I’m not liking the way the replacement entered the game and the D1 from their predecessor is scummy af. Will do more detailed analysis later.

A-Brand Really should have been the D1 lunch but Flora retardedly detailed the wagon. I’m still at a loss with this slot. Their predecessor was objectively scummy but the replacement isn’t that bad.

A-Random - I had a very strong jailer read ok this slot and had him as strong town yesterday because of that jailer read. Knowing that they are not the jailer I need to re evaluate. I think there is a strong case to be made that I Mis cleared this slot. Oberon seemed adamant that whatever their blackmail request was has random’s finger prints all over it.

A-Llewella - need to fully re evaluate when I get home. I think their contributions so far this day phase has been fairly towny.

One thing to really note: Fiona’s play makes zero sense unless they were confident mafia could win. If they weren’t then their play was borderline game throwing.

This post I keep coming back to:

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/5k/amber-mafia---dp2?comment_number=535

Does Fiona put both their partners in there? This seems to indicate one of random / Llewella is scum

Still present. Still working my way through DP1. All of the complaining about anonymous accounts inhibiting the ability to make behavioral reads is sad. Excising past individual incidents actually raises the bar for behavioral analysis. If anonymity were maintained, the game analysis would be more driven by behavioral reads, not less.

A-Bleys wrote:

Still present. Still working my way through DP1. All of the complaining about anonymous accounts inhibiting the ability to make behavioral reads is sad. Excising past individual incidents actually raises the bar for behavioral analysis. If anonymity were maintained, the game analysis would be more driven by behavioral reads, not less.

How far have you read

I'm just past 500 posts. Took an hour and a half break for the gym.

A-Bleys wrote:

I'm just past 500 posts. Took an hour and a half break for the gym.

Any impressions so far

Yes, but I'm reading for the first time with the knowledge that certain players are certain alignments, so I want to work through my theories to completion before getting distracted talking about them with incomplete information.

A-Bleys wrote:

Maiden, I have 1600 posts to read through before I have behavioral reads.

I think you misunderstand my concern. I understand that a jailor exists. What I am asking is if anyone has been jailed after the Mafia used their illusionist. I want to confirm that we know the jailor is not dead before we give a jailor claim a free green check.

This is actually a great point. Everyone needs to claim if they had been jailed or not.

I have not been jailed

Have any of you been jailed since N1?

We should claim jailed / not jailed first that way mafia can’t fake claim jailor

Don't you mean Jailor should claim first and then get verified by a person confirming they were jailed?

A-Llewella wrote:

Don't you mean Jailor should claim first and then get verified by a person confirming they were jailed?

No because mafia can fake claim jailor and fake their partner as tbe person they jailed.

A-Caine wrote:

A-Llewella wrote:

Don't you mean Jailor should claim first and then get verified by a person confirming they were jailed?

No because mafia can fake claim jailor and fake their partner as tbe person they jailed.

I would prefer that. Then the Mafia have to bet their entire team in 1 swing.

I think it would be cleaner to get claims from everyone, then Jailor verifys their target, then player confirms. Lessens the chance of a 1v1 with a 50/50 standoff on 'who claims target first'

If the mafia does it and gets it wrong they die, easy day

If the mafia does it and gets it right its the standard 50/50

If the town does it first mafia will just echo the claim and its your standard 1v1

All thats a gamble they would probably not want and we will just narrow down the PoE cleanly

A-Caine wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

Maiden, I have 1600 posts to read through before I have behavioral reads.

I think you misunderstand my concern. I understand that a jailor exists. What I am asking is if anyone has been jailed after the Mafia used their illusionist. I want to confirm that we know the jailor is not dead before we give a jailor claim a free green check.

This is actually a great point. Everyone needs to claim if they had been jailed or not.

I have not been jailed

I haven’t either. I guess there is some chance that the first NK on Julian killed the Jailor, since their jailing of Pie should have happened before the NK resolved. If that’s the case, this is going to get dicey.

Claiming jailed first just cuts out the potential of a Mafia being forced to claim first and getting it wrong easily solving the day mechanically. (Or they put their entire team on the line and we solve the game today with more information to play with)

A-Llewella wrote:

Claiming jailed first just cuts out the potential of a Mafia being forced to claim first and getting it wrong easily solving the day mechanically. (Or they put their entire team on the line and we solve the game today with more information to play with)

Fair. I see your point