Periodic Table of Elements Mafia - DP1

Magoroth wrote:

what if you’re about to lose? something…

?

Summing it up I do not see much consistent thought in their positions. It really feels like they have intention to kill with little consideration or logic reflecting an intention tell and their purported reads just feel fake to me.

This is basically how I see DP1. Bullshit a bunch then pick someone to kill. Unless scum egregiously fucks up (rare) scumhunting is just performative and ineffective because the information asymmetry is at its highest - it's 99% wifom. DP1 I lynch almost purely on intuition and just shitstir, then I actually start to analyze once we have a flip to work with. The flip is like the loose thread that let's you unravel the game. Until I have it generating activity and reactions is a better use of my time than generating bullshit wifom analysis of largely inscrutable behavior.

Helz wrote:

Actually rereading what I just posted I think I would really like to hear more thoughts that are not about flavor. I feel like the majority of your stuff is flavor focused and I would like to hear analysis..

Good thing I was already planning on doing this with a more extensive read list. I don't have a lot of time before I eat dinner, so I'm going to break this into pieces and do a few players at a time.

Kohai - Given town atp. Helz already mentioned that it can at least be useful to have someone who is known town throughout this DP, and a few others have mentioned that it takes someone who is usually the focus of attention this early off the table, which is a nice change of pace. Been a while since he's chimed in (yes, I know, Shavuot) and the last post was just to unvote, so I'd like to get more insight from him.

Bullish - Slight scum. Much as I liked his early post about me only liking 3 elements, there just hasn't been a lot since. The sus on Magoroth is unclear. It initially looked like an RVS, but then he talks about Magoroth "over compensating," townreads Rex for no reason I can see, and states a lack of opposition with a mass character claim. I don't think Pie stated that there's any anti-claim mechanic in play here, but I pushing for a mass claim here of any kind rubs me the wrong way.

Magoroth - I've landed on null for Magoroth after catching up. His post about "read[ing] emotion in" my posts felt pretty genuine to past interactions with him as town (he always seems to specifically call me out for not posting more organically) and the pushback on exploring Thoth's role more in depth looked a little townie, though in retrospect, he wasn't the first to push back on more info there. Largely spent the early DP just pushing a little to see how people responded to scum accusations and questioning Thoth about some of the aspects of his role without getting into the details (though surmising that Thoth's role could somehow function as anti-claim raised a small flag, don't really get where that thinking comes from).

The metal softclaim was a little off when there was generally pushback against softclaims like that, but what's been pinging me back to neutral is how he's dancing around his scumreads, saying he doesn't have any only to say he "could say" he scumreads Rex and has some uncertainty towards Mag1c. I get wanting to play things different and I'm not so much sussing a difference in behavior, but rather the decision to be so insecure about his early stage reads only to shift back to null on him later. Not going straight to a VTL is fine, but this all seems very cagey. The uncertainty seems kind of genuine, but that's the best I can say about it.

Thoth - Slight town. That early claim definitely helps my perspective on him. I don't think scum Thoth opts to ask about this obscure element and then designs this role on the fly. There's an outside chance that, given scum can only ask about two characters, he just goes for a low likelihood claim and someone on his team comes in with a pre-packaged role that gives him some cover for numerous DPs. The main thing that's holding me back from a solid townread is the DP4 aspect. Having to wait 3 more DPs to figure out what his role is gives him a lot of cover, and it reminds me a lot of games where someone (looking at Pie here) gave a late DP Innocent Child claim and just coasted on that to victory. That being said, his responses to efforts to clarify his role are consistent with what he's said, and if there's anything I've experienced from Thoth that usually makes weird role claims from him stand out as scummy, it's inconsistencies. Maybe he's gotten better at supporting fake claims or he's getting help, but I doubt it.

Back with more later.

Luckily I play with a bunch of autistic guys who love to quixotically attempt to rationalize the irrational, so I can always rely on you generating analysis of my schizo DP1 antics.

I dislike that thoth is posting in discord and not engaging on here to questions being asked to him

Mikal wrote:

I dislike that thoth is posting in discord and not engaging on here to questions being asked to him

True

Unvote

VTL Thoth

Mikal wrote:

I dislike that thoth is posting in discord and not engaging on here to questions being asked to him

if he was scum wouldn’t he just not post in the discord lol

No. Think it means hes active and around and avoiding the game

I dislike that thoth is posting in discord and not engaging on here to questions being asked to him

I get the annoyance and with anyone else, it would ping me too. With Thoth, it's just kind of what he does. NAI to me.

Mikal wrote:

No. Think it means hes active and around and avoiding the game

I mean if he was scum wouldn’t he just avoid posting in the Discord if he wanted to pretend to be inactive? I do that as scum

Mikal wrote:

You can justify that however you want. But the refusal to comply and cooperate with town and blaming it on bad town play is idiotic

I don’t want to go into this weird political/religious idea you guys have. But, I sincerely do not give a single fuck about “cooperating with the town”. People should get better at reading because “the Town” does not exist. Groupthink is a thing and if people engage in it, that’s on them lol.

Just wanted to say this because sooooooo many times I heard this here and I just don’t care about the Town.

Mikal wrote:

Explain your limitations in detail?

That one I made after the game started. It was to get neutral read with the bonus of flipping the game pretending to be neutral at the end of game. I figured being mid read allowed to block Mafia from connecting with a lost wolf as I hunted for flagging from either side and I was also looking for mafia attempts to buddy me if they thought I was neutral. It was a challenge that lined up well with my win condition and made me push myself but did not impact the bad elimination as I was killed for not giving the detail of what exact kind of protective I was.

Alright, reads R2:

Casey: Null. Some light thoughts aside that largely just make them look reasonable, I can't say there's anything that pings me in either direction. Being opposed to softclaims, responding to my mixed read on Thoth with reasons to townread him that largely comport with what I posted about him later, and doing some WIFOM on my unwillingness to say "I am town" straight up is all fine, but it's also NAI from Casey.

Mag1c: Slight town/null. Pinged by the same late reveal of Thoth's role, largely thinking well about how this kind of role could have been inserted from a modpsych perspective. Honestly, the early decision to amorphously sus me for unknown reasons is pushing me towards a town gutread, I think a lot of people have been pretty quick to put me in their town pile. His read on Magoroth is pretty basic, but supported by past behavior in terms of activity. They're all pretty weak reasons to townread him, so he's teetering into null.

Shining: Null. Just not enough to go off of. His uncertainty pings me as slight town, but that's mainly because I've seen how he usually plays games as scum and he's usually more assertive than this. That lack of consistency with his scum play is a weak enough read that I can't put weight on it. Mostly, he's talked about Thoth's role and modpsych of Pie associated with it and the PGO, specifically. It's all NAI.

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

Actually rereading what I just posted I think I would really like to hear more thoughts that are not about flavor. I feel like the majority of your stuff is flavor focused and I would like to hear analysis..

Good thing I was already planning on doing this with a more extensive read list. I don't have a lot of time before I eat dinner, so I'm going to break this into pieces and do a few players at a time.

Kohai - Given town atp. Helz already mentioned that it can at least be useful to have someone who is known town throughout this DP, and a few others have mentioned that it takes someone who is usually the focus of attention this early off the table, which is a nice change of pace. Been a while since he's chimed in (yes, I know, Shavuot) and the last post was just to unvote, so I'd like to get more insight from him.

Bullish - Slight scum. Much as I liked his early post about me only liking 3 elements, there just hasn't been a lot since. The sus on Magoroth is unclear. It initially looked like an RVS, but then he talks about Magoroth "over compensating," townreads Rex for no reason I can see, and states a lack of opposition with a mass character claim. I don't think Pie stated that there's any anti-claim mechanic in play here, but I pushing for a mass claim here of any kind rubs me the wrong way.

Magoroth - I've landed on null for Magoroth after catching up. His post about "read[ing] emotion in" my posts felt pretty genuine to past interactions with him as town (he always seems to specifically call me out for not posting more organically) and the pushback on exploring Thoth's role more in depth looked a little townie, though in retrospect, he wasn't the first to push back on more info there. Largely spent the early DP just pushing a little to see how people responded to scum accusations and questioning Thoth about some of the aspects of his role without getting into the details (though surmising that Thoth's role could somehow function as anti-claim raised a small flag, don't really get where that thinking comes from).

The metal softclaim was a little off when there was generally pushback against softclaims like that, but what's been pinging me back to neutral is how he's dancing around his scumreads, saying he doesn't have any only to say he "could say" he scumreads Rex and has some uncertainty towards Mag1c. I get wanting to play things different and I'm not so much sussing a difference in behavior, but rather the decision to be so insecure about his early stage reads only to shift back to null on him later. Not going straight to a VTL is fine, but this all seems very cagey. The uncertainty seems kind of genuine, but that's the best I can say about it.

Thoth - Slight town. That early claim definitely helps my perspective on him. I don't think scum Thoth opts to ask about this obscure element and then designs this role on the fly. There's an outside chance that, given scum can only ask about two characters, he just goes for a low likelihood claim and someone on his team comes in with a pre-packaged role that gives him some cover for numerous DPs. The main thing that's holding me back from a solid townread is the DP4 aspect. Having to wait 3 more DPs to figure out what his role is gives him a lot of cover, and it reminds me a lot of games where someone (looking at Pie here) gave a late DP Innocent Child claim and just coasted on that to victory. That being said, his responses to efforts to clarify his role are consistent with what he's said, and if there's anything I've experienced from Thoth that usually makes weird role claims from him stand out as scummy, it's inconsistencies. Maybe he's gotten better at supporting fake claims or he's getting help, but I doubt it.

Back with more later.

also. I claimed metal in the astronomical sense. for an astronomer all elements heavier than hydrogen and helium are metals. I dunno how that’s damaging. I just said I am not two things, I could still be like 100 others lol

I’ll state that I find a Lunatic/Banana/?? quite possible at this point. I don’t find Rex genuinely scummy and it makes me feel like there’s at least one scum on his train

Don't think you have to necessarily cooperate all the time but if you are at l-1 and refuse to claim because you want to jerk off your ego and think you should not claim because its big brained.

No one's going to feel bad when you get hammered and then they will get pissed you lost the game for them

You can do whatever. Just will keep getting killer over and over and throwing the game instead of trying to play to your wincon

Largely agree with this about dp1

Magoroth wrote:

Yeah, I’m not really liking Rex’s response here. If anything he looks more nervous and gated than Helz. Don’t think it has to come from scum but it doesn’t look good.

Same, myself and at least 1 other person were town reading him, he's getting too defensive for having just 2 votes on him.

I agree with theory that activated IC should only pop when they are about to be lynched, or could be in a position to lead town. In the first scenario they can generate associations on a wagon without being actually lynched, which is very useful. In Kohai's case I understand his reasoning to pop IC so soon. It's still suboptimal but I understand his reasoning.

In any case I think everyone agrees to take Kohai and Thoth off the table for today.

also. I claimed metal in the astronomical sense. for an astronomer all elements heavier than hydrogen and helium are metals. I dunno how that’s damaging. I just said I am not two things, I could still be like 100 others lol

I mean, fair. Wasn't really scumreading you over it, but noted.

Magoroth wrote:

Bullish wrote:

I would not be opposed to a mass character claim.

what would this achieve?

This is classic mafia theory, I've typed this out before but it looks like google did not index it.

mass char claim makes sense if 2 of the 3 are true:

1. chars are not closely linked to roles
2. char pool is limited, so CCs are possible
3. there is a clear theme split

In our case 1 is true, 2 and 3 are half true. So I'm not opposed to a mass char claim, but I won't advocate for it very hard either.

RexFavilla wrote:

Summing it up I do not see much consistent thought in their positions. It really feels like they have intention to kill with little consideration or logic reflecting an intention tell and their purported reads just feel fake to me.

This is basically how I see DP1. Bullshit a bunch then pick someone to kill. Unless scum egregiously fucks up (rare) scumhunting is just performative and ineffective because the information asymmetry is at its highest - it's 99% wifom. DP1 I lynch almost purely on intuition and just shitstir, then I actually start to analyze once we have a flip to work with. The flip is like the loose thread that let's you unravel the game. Until I have it generating activity and reactions is a better use of my time than generating bullshit wifom analysis of largely inscrutable behavior.

I actually agree with this but have a different take on it. Yes DP1s are marginal at best. But it's important to 1) generate associations, and 2) eek out as much as margin as you can because DP1 actions snowball into later DPs such that even a minor advantage could be very consequential down the line. So yes it's a bunch of bullshit back and forth but it's important bullshit.

Reads R3 (I mean to get through these tonight):

Banana - Null. Much as I also like how Luna was covering Magoroth behaviorally, just agreeing with him doesn't tell me much. Some minor thoughts on Kohai's choice to out the IC and on Thoth's claim just don't do much to move the needle. So far, Banana's mainly just been agreeing with others or questioning reads, so there's too little to go off of.

Mikal - Null. Early thoughts mainly focused on Thoth's role and being happy about Kohai being IC, later got into an argument with Helz on the usual playstyle shit. Reads make some sense from his perspective, albeit I disagree with him on Thoth and don't really get his perspective on Bullish or Rex (both of whom he seems to read based on some big presumptions about how they usually engage early as scum, which is fair, but pretty weak). I kind of want to put him into town as a gutread because I'd say he's usually more easily distractable as town, but that's an even weaker reason to read him, so null it is.

Luna - Slight town. The pushback on the Magoroth townreads that were relatively common early in the DP make sense to me. As one of those early townreads, I can see why he was confused by how common the sentiment was. Luna shifted to focusing on Rex as plausible scum, and that came with a set of reads that look pretty decent to me. Maybe it's just because I'm in a similar place on Rex, but I'm seeing a good deal of analysis into how Rex's flip would inform reads on other players, and he seems pretty well aware that it would affect perceptions of him. It's not unusual for Luna and I to see behavioral reads in a similar light regardless of our affiliations, but for now, I'm seeing more reason to townread him than not.

RexFavilla wrote:

Mikal wrote:

I dislike that thoth is posting in discord and not engaging on here to questions being asked to him

True

Unvote

VTL Thoth

Remember to include a : or the bot won't recognize it.

Mikal wrote:

I dislike that thoth is posting in discord and not engaging on here to questions being asked to him

Really? More OGI

Some of my posts I made before I completely caught up. My read on Rex has shifted back and forth, I'm currently null on him.

My gut scum read on mago has not subsided. I might go for a push tomorrow.

Bullish wrote:

Some of my posts I made before I completely caught up. My read on Rex has shifted back and forth, I'm currently null on him.

Same honestly

Kohai wrote:

Mikal wrote:

I dislike that thoth is posting in discord and not engaging on here to questions being asked to him

Really? More OGI

lol... My thoughts exactly.