Stereotype Mafia Day Phase 1

Thoth wrote:

Honestly, I think that appealing to, “it’s an outside possibility, but we should act as though it’s a serious risk”, is the archetypal scumtell, and not just from Banana.

This is true, but I also question Banana being this overtly supportive of Kohai as his scummate. It makes me think she's either genuinely doubting the evidence, which seems unlikely also, or that she's doing what she did in Solo Leveling mafia when Helz's mislynch was imminent, and supporting a doomed townie to farm towncred -- but that would mean Kohai is town, which seems even unlikelier. I don't like any of these options.

I suppose its possible. The immediate potentials I am thinking-

1- Banana truly believes it was a gambit and I am just not understanding the level of confidence they have in their conclusion

2- Banana is spoiled by being scum and knowing the scum team grabbing town cred

3- Banana is spoiled by some other mech thing and not revealing

4- Banana is just a nice person and genuinely is buying the ATE

I agree that the drunken thing is off. But its something thats been off about their role from the start of the day. Im still seriously stuck on that being in the game. I would have literally hard considered replacing out of a game if the host gave me a post restricted VT role under the threat of mod kill. I just don't see that especially with the mod kill thing last game.

Wryly wrote:

Thoth wrote:

Honestly, I think that appealing to, “it’s an outside possibility, but we should act as though it’s a serious risk”, is the archetypal scumtell, and not just from Banana.

This is true, but I also question Banana being this overtly supportive of Kohai as his scummate. It makes me think she's either genuinely doubting the evidence, which seems unlikely also, or that she's doing what she did in Solo Leveling mafia when Helz's mislynch was imminent, and supporting a doomed townie to farm towncred -- but that would mean Kohai is town, which seems even unlikelier. I don't like any of these options.

I agree. I think its unlikely they are teamed W/W

Let me put it like this. We VTNL or lynch someone today. I doubt we will VTNL. Even if we are not sure that Kohai is scum, he is clearly the scummiest option.

i also dont get why he continues the drunk thing after voting for himself and accepting defeat.

Because retracting that would make him look even more dishonest?

i mean he already self voted and acceptd his fate tho lol

I can see a world where he is town, but I don’t think it’s likely, and Mafia is a game of working from what is most likely true, not what is guaranteed.

got it, so what do we learn if he is town tho? what connections or associations do we make to go fwd, or do we just shrug and go "kohai was stupid, its his fault" and bsacly waste dp1?

Helz wrote:

I suppose its possible. The immediate potentials I am thinking-

1- Banana truly believes it was a gambit and I am just not understanding the level of confidence they have in their conclusion

its not confidence, just skeptcsm about everyone being eager to lynch him so quick and i was town reading him before that happened

2- Banana is spoiled by being scum and knowing the scum team grabbing town cred

if we have to lynch him im okay with it, but arugments like this happen every game, no one actually thinks some1 as scum gives them that much town cred. just trying to get max use from this if we are going to do it, and get ppl to get into better reasons why he is the lynch. that way if he IS town we can do something with it

3- Banana is spoiled by some other mech thing and not revealing

4- Banana is just a nice person and genuinely is buying the ATE

whats ate again

Helz wrote:

I agree that the drunken thing is off. But its something thats been off about their role from the start of the day. Im still seriously stuck on that being in the game. I would have literally hard considered replacing out of a game if the host gave me a post restricted VT role under the threat of mod kill. I just don't see that especially with the mod kill thing last game.

arent u the guy that purposely gives himself post restrictions to challenge himself?

Thoth wrote:

Let me put it like this. We VTNL or lynch someone today. I doubt we will VTNL. Even if we are not sure that Kohai is scum, he is clearly the scummiest option.

we still have til 11 tmorrw so this is a bit early to have this discussion

Well sense you went there. I doubt there is 2kpn. Its simply unlikely looking at numbers given how quickly the town could just get stomped

Worst situations for town (1kpn)

D1 8 town 3+1 scum, miss-eleminate + 1 kill

D2 6 town 3+1 scum, miss-eleminate + 1 kill

D3 4 town. Potential parity and town looses.

That feels rough. A VTNL would at least most likely lock in a D4. This situation goes with the assumption that the Neutral is anti town or can scum side and the scum team does not hit them.

If we are right about Kohai and the neutral does not/can not side with scum-

D1 8 town 3/1 scum, Eleminate wolf + 1 night kill

D2 7 town 2/1 scum, Misseleminate + 1 night kill

D3 5 town 2/1 scum, MYLO right here. But not Lylo

This is gona be tougher than I thought. Depending on how things go a VTNL may not be an awful option at some point. I wont bother posting my 2kpn numbers. Its not worth taking up brain space.

Abandoning the drunk shtick now would only confirm his guilt and eliminate any possibility of averting a lynch. A self-vote can be unvoted; nothing can erase the evidence of abandoning drunkvoice completely and not getting modkilled.

hes already admitted dfeat and vote himself, he could just not do it and get killed for it from his mech

That said, I'm open to hearing arguments that I'm wrong

its not about right and wrong, his lynch is prolly gona happen, just want there to be some effort going into what we do if we are wrong. who is scum on this wagon and why? how many ppl get to use the pass of "we lynched him cuz dumb"? every1? or just some ppl? what do we gain from coming to the conclusion we were wrong and it was just kohais fault, not ours. just want to get effort from more ppl. casey and mago barely posted and ultra is very sus.

Abandoning the drunk shtick now would only confirm his guilt and eliminate any possibility of averting a lynch. A self-vote can be unvoted; nothing can erase the evidence of abandoning drunkvoice completely and not getting modkilled.

hes already admitted dfeat and vote himself, he could just not do it and get killed for it from his mech

That said, I'm open to hearing arguments that I'm wrong

its not about right and wrong, his lynch is prolly gona happen, just want there to be some effort going into what we do if we are wrong. who is scum on this wagon and why? how many ppl get to use the pass of "we lynched him cuz dumb"? every1? or just some ppl? what do we gain from coming to the conclusion we were wrong and it was just kohais fault, not ours. just want to get effort from more ppl. casey and mago barely posted and ultra is very sus.

if you guys help me pressure ultra ill board the kohai wagon, since its proly hapening anyway, but ultra gets out of this scot free otherwise

Banana wrote:

4- Banana is just a nice person and genuinely is buying the ATE

whats ate again

Appeal to emotion

Banana wrote:

arent u the guy that purposely gives himself post restrictions to challenge himself?

Yeah. Some people keep trying to tie that fact to my first game misslynch but my refusal to claim the tiny detail of what type of doctor I was had nothing to do with why I was eleminated.

My thing this game is rather simple. Usually I just totally ignore flavor. This game I am going to grit my teeth and force myself to analyze it a decent bit. I believe I said so in the sign up thread. Its also not a challenge but I am attempting to play much more interactive this game simply because I have not done so on this site yet. I like to mix it up and it helps stop people from destroying themselves with meta reads on me when I simply have none and use all sorts of different play styles.

Helz wrote:

Banana wrote:

4- Banana is just a nice person and genuinely is buying the ATE

whats ate again

Appeal to emotion

i mean i town read him b4 that

Banana wrote:

Abandoning the drunk shtick now would only confirm his guilt and eliminate any possibility of averting a lynch. A self-vote can be unvoted; nothing can erase the evidence of abandoning drunkvoice completely and not getting modkilled.

hes already admitted dfeat and vote himself, he could just not do it and get killed for it from his mech

That said, I'm open to hearing arguments that I'm wrong

its not about right and wrong, his lynch is prolly gona happen, just want there to be some effort going into what we do if we are wrong. who is scum on this wagon and why? how many ppl get to use the pass of "we lynched him cuz dumb"? every1? or just some ppl? what do we gain from coming to the conclusion we were wrong and it was just kohais fault, not ours. just want to get effort from more ppl. casey and mago barely posted and ultra is very sus.

Very valid point. Its also why I gave very direct reasoning but I am unsure how much effort the town will put in while wolves will almost certainly just avoid voicing anything if he is town. As scum they will likely dogpile for the credit. The only real value we get then is town voicing thoughts which can be gone through if we are wrong and he really is town.

Helz wrote:

Banana wrote:

arent u the guy that purposely gives himself post restrictions to challenge himself?

Yeah. Some people keep trying to tie that fact to my first game misslynch but my refusal to claim the tiny detail of what type of doctor I was had nothing to do with why I was eleminated.

My thing this game is rather simple. Usually I just totally ignore flavor. This game I am going to grit my teeth and force myself to analyze it a decent bit. I believe I said so in the sign up thread. Its also not a challenge but I am attempting to play much more interactive this game simply because I have not done so on this site yet. I like to mix it up and it helps stop people from destroying themselves with meta reads on me when I simply have none and use all sorts of different play styles.

my point is that u said "I would have literally hard considered replacing out of a game if the host gave me a post restricted VT role under the threat of mod kill"

but admitedly do this yourself. anyways just a wierd thot that crossed my mind

Banana wrote:

Helz wrote:

Banana wrote:

4- Banana is just a nice person and genuinely is buying the ATE

whats ate again

Appeal to emotion

i mean i town read him b4 that

Thats kinda what I want to see. I did not see anything to town read them on. I am curious what you see given you probably understand their play much better than I do. Its also kinda hard for me to follow their points with the drunk thing they are doing.

Helz wrote:

Banana wrote:

Helz wrote:

Banana wrote:

4- Banana is just a nice person and genuinely is buying the ATE

whats ate again

Appeal to emotion

i mean i town read him b4 that

Thats kinda what I want to see. I did not see anything to town read them on. I am curious what you see given you probably understand their play much better than I do. Its also kinda hard for me to follow their points with the drunk thing they are doing.

i have said b4 why i town read him, but tl;dr version is i dont think he goes thru the effort doing this as scum, i dont see how it helps him at all, its not like anyone was ever townreading him for it. it just muddies water about him for no reason. the strategy just makes no sense, it seems more likely its real. second he caught onto ultras post too. i did an ultra iso and it just read like lurking, being online but not saying anything, waiting to see how things happen, then he just omguses me and kohai for pressuring him, the stalling of his claim, etc, kohai saw all this too which looks good to me.

Banana wrote:

if you guys help me pressure ultra ill board the kohai wagon, since its proly hapening anyway, but ultra gets out of this scot free otherwise

So I have a very cold reason way of looking at D1 eleminations-

1- How sure are we the player is scum?

2- How much risk is their in loosing them as town? Are they going to be a strong asset as a player? Do they have a useful role?

3- What information do we gain from their elemination?

So for Ultra-

1- There are some things I am suspicious of but I am not confident they are scum

2- I voiced very early on that I have zero problem with a policy elimination and under pressure they have given minimal information. I can jump on board with demanding a claim but what I really want is to analyze. It drives me a little nuts how D2 every game on this site like 2/3 of the players have claimed.

3- Their elimination would create information on who was opportunistic and it would present a nice counter wagon situation against Kohai which would be useful for late game wagonomics. If we get a late game, this game feels like it could snowball pretty quickly. This has the same issue of minimal reasoning on the train with people who will say "RVS and the claim thing was weird"

Im down to push Ultra but I am unsure how effective it will be. After shoving them for reads they gave some soft positions in #399. The other thing I consider is if they will be high lurk low effort regardless of alignment they are a low risk elimination for town and grow as a potential liability if they are left to exist in the end game.

So for Ultra-

1- There are some things I am suspicious of but I am not confident they are scum

2- I voiced very early on that I have zero problem with a policy elimination and under pressure they have given minimal information. I can jump on board with demanding a claim but what I really want is to analyze. It drives me a little nuts how D2 every game on this site like 2/3 of the players have claimed.

3- Their elimination would create information on who was opportunistic and it would present a nice counter wagon situation against Kohai which would be useful for late game wagonomics. If we get a late game, this game feels like it could snowball pretty quickly. This has the same issue of minimal reasoning on the train with people who will say "RVS and the claim thing was weird"

im not suggesting we lynch them, just push them to do... litrly anything

Im down to push Ultra but I am unsure how effective it will be. 

the more ppl say things like this, the more outs you give them to do it, and you give other players an out to not push them.

After shoving them for reads they gave some soft positions in #399. 

yeah ive mentioned this post, he omgussed me and kohai for pressuring him

The other thing I consider is if they will be high lurk low effort regardless of alignment they are a low risk elimination for town and grow as a potential liability if they are left to exist in the end game.

well its a good go to lynch in absence of other lynches because if hes not going to do anything to solidfy being town, or to help the town progress, its not much of an impact unless he is a power role. kohai on the otherhand has been active and contribting

Banana wrote:

its not about right and wrong, his lynch is prolly gona happen, just want there to be some effort going into what we do if we are wrong. who is scum on this wagon and why? how many ppl get to use the pass of "we lynched him cuz dumb"? every1? or just some ppl? what do we gain from coming to the conclusion we were wrong and it was just kohais fault, not ours. just want to get effort from more ppl. casey and mago barely posted and ultra is very sus.

If Kohai turns out to just be inept town, we gain little from it. It's as likely for town to jump on his "they got 3 options" thing as it is for scum to jump on it. Everyone will use the "we lynched him cuz dumb" pass.

I'm fine pressuring Ultra as well, and waiting for Casey and Mago to post.

Banana wrote:

i have said b4 why i town read him, but tl;dr version is i dont think he goes thru the effort doing this as scum, i dont see how it helps him at all, its not like anyone was ever townreading him for it. it just muddies water about him for no reason. the strategy just makes no sense, it seems more likely its real. second he caught onto ultras post too. i did an ultra iso and it just read like lurking, being online but not saying anything, waiting to see how things happen, then he just omguses me and kohai for pressuring him, the stalling of his claim, etc, kohai saw all this too which looks good to me.

Why do you think he shifted his position from "I was going for a calculated reaction test" to "I misunderstood Lunatic I'm too dumb for mafia"?

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Kohai (4/7): Mikal (p#264), RexFavilla (p#266), Thoth (p#514), Kohai (p#545)

Ultracrepidarian (2/7): ILikePie5 (p#12), Banana (p#209)

Helz (1/7): Magoroth (p#87)

RexFavilla (1/7): Ultracrepidarian (p#200)

Not Voting (4): Casey_Risk, Helz (p#525), whiteflame (p#132), Wryly (p#547)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 8 hours.

I think this is where I am fine sitting for now. I am not just putting a vote there for giggles. I am fine with Ultra or Kohai today. While I favor Kohai I do want a counter train and I am serious when I say I would rather resolve them early if its going to require stacking votes to get minimal participation out of them independent of anything else.

VTL: Ultracrepidarian

Wryly wrote:

Banana wrote:

i have said b4 why i town read him, but tl;dr version is i dont think he goes thru the effort doing this as scum, i dont see how it helps him at all, its not like anyone was ever townreading him for it. it just muddies water about him for no reason. the strategy just makes no sense, it seems more likely its real. second he caught onto ultras post too. i did an ultra iso and it just read like lurking, being online but not saying anything, waiting to see how things happen, then he just omguses me and kohai for pressuring him, the stalling of his claim, etc, kohai saw all this too which looks good to me.

Why do you think he shifted his position from "I was going for a calculated reaction test" to "I misunderstood Lunatic I'm too dumb for mafia"?

maybe he thought it would make him look better to play it off as a reaction test, which certainly feed the im stupid part

I would also very much like to hear more from Rex

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Kohai (4/7): Mikal (p#264), RexFavilla (p#266), Thoth (p#514), Kohai (p#545)

Ultracrepidarian (3/7): ILikePie5 (p#12), Banana (p#209), Helz (p#596)

Helz (1/7): Magoroth (p#87)

RexFavilla (1/7): Ultracrepidarian (p#200)

Not Voting (3): Casey_Risk, whiteflame (p#132), Wryly (p#547)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 6 hours.

I think helz is prob cooking

Very likely 1 scum between anna and kohai

Kohai for me is ogi which he admitted and a direct slip which he also admitted to lying.

This was by helz but its true. The kohai defense from anna is just weird as fuck. Could be a spoiled scum prepping for the flip. Plus the hard on for owen being inactive when they have posted something. I am not sure if rex mag or casey has posted anything or more than owen.

Very high chance a 50/50 is there.