Apocalypse Mafia - DP2

You’ve made 8 posts this day phase brother

I'm really sorely tempted to out my role and just see if we can put the pieces together. Still feels like I'm missing something, but I think that comes down to what roles Luna and I have. I'm running around this morning dealing with a vet appointment, hopefully be able to be on more consistently after that.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/25/2026 at 1:00 AM (post #201)

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/24/2026 at 10:29 PM (post #199)

Observing previous Bullish games

https://web.archive.org/web/20251015005929/https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12683-jet-fighters-mafia-endgame - 1 Vanilla

https://web.archive.org/web/20250716065929/https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/5494-crimes-mafia-endgame - 1 Vanilla

https://web.archive.org/web/20250714201327/https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/4890-technology-mafia-endgame - 2 Vanillas

Good info to know. Given the games are older, I will take that with a grain of salt. But its not hard to believe a single vanilla would exist in any games template tbh.

they're his most recent games. Mime mafia was skipped over due to it being a gimmick game

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/25/2026 at 12:02 AM (post #193)

Whiteflame's is the only one found in fiction. Yes Bullish is an atheist but even he should be able to view major religious texts differently than a sci-fi novel.

Ice nine is also man-made, albeit fictional.

I am wrong. I forgot about Kohai's zombie apocalypse.

We have under 12 hours

Originally Posted by ILikePie5 on 9/25/2026 at 1:11 AM (post #204)

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/24/2026 at 11:32 PM (post #200)

With Thoth being the only vanilla, the pattern fits. Behaviorally, I find it crazy that mafia would want to fake-claim vanilla, and soft something so attention-drawing as their first post in the whole game.

Problem is that Vanilla could be the fake role claim given by Bullish in this exact scenario. Theres also the fact that I’m like 99% sure that Thoth knows rolemadness doesn’t mean 0 vanillas exist every time.

Maybe? Pretty difficult for mafia, but possible. As for the latter, unsure.

But also, the justification. You can’t do anything about vaccum decay either, but that’s a Miller. There’s an inconsistency

I can easily buy a mod inconsistency here tbh. Let me go take a look at those justifications, hold on a sec.

Originally Posted by Vader on 9/23/2026 at 5:53 AM (post #14)

My character is false vacuum decay. It’s a fake a quantum state that is meta stable and because I am false I am Miller

hmmm

that's not what "false" means in this situation, doing a little research on what vacuum decay is. It is true, however, that quantum physicists believe a catastrophic event of this kind is extraordinarily unlikely.

Originally Posted by Thoth on 9/25/2026 at 4:00 AM (post #209)

Lunatic can you fucking stop fucking using fucking ChatGPT to write your fucking analysis

i'm pretty sure he's just organizing his reads. i've seen people format their reads like that long before the dawn of gpt

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/25/2026 at 9:47 AM (post #217)

Originally Posted by Vader on 9/23/2026 at 5:53 AM (post #14)

My character is false vacuum decay. It’s a fake a quantum state that is meta stable and because I am false I am Miller

hmmm

that's not what "false" means in this situation, doing a little research on what vacuum decay is. It is true, however, that quantum physicists believe a catastrophic event of this kind is extraordinarily unlikely.

even that could be mod inconsistency though

Originally Posted by Thoth on 9/24/2026 at 9:44 PM (post #161)

Yes, I am a vanilla townie, which, as Mag1c noted, means the game is not rolemad per my understanding of rolemad, hence why I said the OP was wrong. My 'character', i.e., apocalypse, is the Sun turning into a red giant and swallowing the Earth. Justification is that this will happen in a billion years, so almost nobody today cares about it or preps for it. Actually, this will happen in about five or six billion years, and Bullish was probably thinking of the Sun becoming hot enough to boil the oceans and kill most or all known forms of life, which is a bit less apocalyptic. I thought whiteflame might be vanilla because one vanilla often means multiple vanillas and I figured his PM might have a similar justification to mine since he claimed that it's something preppers don't normally care about.

Slightly different justification from Vader's

Thoth's will happen, but in the extremely distant future

Vader's is unlikely to happen at all... Vader's claim does rely on Bullish making a pun about "false" vacuum decay.

If I had to pick between the two, Vader's is worse.

But I can see a world where Bullish made the pun because why not. This doesn't have to be a dichotomy either.

VTL Vader

given no one hinted to or claimed cop I’m gonna assume miller is a fake claim

Originally Posted by Kohai on 9/25/2026 at 9:16 AM (post #221)

VTL Vader

given no one hinted to or claimed cop I’m gonna assume miller is a fake claim

I mean just because a cop hasn't claimed doesn't mean there isn't one lol

Pie — Scum lean

I've moved Pie down somewhat.

I understand his explanation for the visitor situation better now, and I think the reaction test itself was reasonable enough as a concept. My issue is that I'm not convinced the results of the test are as alignment-indicative as Pie seems to think they are.

He’s also a claimed Doctor. I didn’t clear him until after he did that. Match the behavior with the role and the likely conclusion is he’s town from my pov.

Magic being willing to explain himself and offer a full claim doesn't necessarily distinguish town from scum, and I'm not convinced that Magic "passing" the test should carry as much weight as Pie is giving it.

I think it does. Mafia would be rattled and instantly claim someone. Only way Magic is scum is if Doctor is a fake role claim, and scum visited me with something

More broadly, I still want to understand Pie's overall solving and some of his interactions from earlier in the phase. I don't think the visitor situation is enough by itself to clear him.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 9/25/2026 at 10:16 AM (post #221)

VTL Vader

given no one hinted to or claimed cop I’m gonna assume miller is a fake claim

What is your read on Thoth?

Originally Posted by ILikePie5 on 9/25/2026 at 10:14 AM (post #223)

Pie — Scum lean

I've moved Pie down somewhat.

I understand his explanation for the visitor situation better now, and I think the reaction test itself was reasonable enough as a concept. My issue is that I'm not convinced the results of the test are as alignment-indicative as Pie seems to think they are.

He’s also a claimed Doctor. I didn’t clear him until after he did that. Match the behavior with the role and the likely conclusion is he’s town from my pov.

So your reaction test was basically useless unless he full claimed? You could have accomplished the same thing from just throwing random pressure on anyone who was a doc and getting lucky. That's my point; You aren't making a good case for what this reaction test was ever intended to accomplish in the first place.

Magic being willing to explain himself and offer a full claim doesn't necessarily distinguish town from scum, and I'm not convinced that Magic "passing" the test should carry as much weight as Pie is giving it.

I think it does. Mafia would be rattled and instantly claim someone. Only way Magic is scum is if Doctor is a fake role claim, and scum visited me with something

I mean if you have doctor as a fake claim up your sleeve, how "rattled" are you ever going to be? I've been pressuring magic since day one, and have been back and forth with him for pages. You think if he was scum he wasn't already "rattled" by that? You think it was you claiming to have been visited that would have shook him to the core?

Originally Posted by Kohai on 9/25/2026 at 11:16 AM (post #221)

VTL Vader

given no one hinted to or claimed cop I’m gonna assume miller is a fake claim

i rate this pivot a meh

Alright, I'll at least say what I'm thinking for everyone briefly before I get back to work.

For reasons I won't get into, I'm ruling out a Lunatic lynch this DP. I know there's been a good deal of attention on him, particularly since he claimed his character, but I have significant reason to townread him both behaviorally and based on what I suspect he is.

If push comes to shove, I can explain why I still townread Kohai despite everything. I don't like a lot of what he's done behaviorally, but based on a couple of posts he made this DP and last, I have significant reason to read him as town. I also just don't think scum fake claim a Tree Stump, it's a weird choice that draws attention to them.

That leaves four.

Vader and Thoth are concerning. Even if we had a confirmed Cop, scum could just have been given the Miller as a fake claim, and I can't rule that out. I'm also a little hesitant to just accept a Vanilla claim at face value, but Thoth breadcrumbed it a good deal and I don't think he does that for setting up a fake Vanilla claim so early in the game (he said there was a lie in the OP pretty early in DP1). I can't rule it out entirely, but especially given the history of Bullish using Vanilla roles in similar games, it seems probable.

And then there's Pie and Mag1c.

Mag1c's claim is a major outlier compared with what everyone else has claimed so far, and yes, it's distinct from mine too. That being said, he's also the only claimed protective role (always a chance that was given as a fake claim, just weird for balancing the game) and he's right that I don't think he'd make up this claim as is. I don't think Mag1c's too likely to design a PM with this much extraneous detail, particularly when it was likely to be analyzed a good deal.

So that just leaves Pie. I believe that Pie knew he was visited, though I don't understand the reasoning behind much of what he's done with that knowledge and the role itself is NAI.

If I had to pick a plausible scum team, I could see a world where it's Vader and Thoth, one where either of them are paired with Pie, or an outside chance that it's just Pie and Mag1c. I won't dismiss Kohai entirely, but he's less of a concern for me.

DP ends at 11:30pm EST tonight

nice

imma go do some other things for the next few hours

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/25/2026 at 11:24 AM (post #225)

Originally Posted by ILikePie5 on 9/25/2026 at 10:14 AM (post #223)

Pie — Scum lean

I've moved Pie down somewhat.

I understand his explanation for the visitor situation better now, and I think the reaction test itself was reasonable enough as a concept. My issue is that I'm not convinced the results of the test are as alignment-indicative as Pie seems to think they are.

He’s also a claimed Doctor. I didn’t clear him until after he did that. Match the behavior with the role and the likely conclusion is he’s town from my pov.

So your reaction test was basically useless unless he full claimed? You could have accomplished the same thing from just throwing random pressure on anyone who was a doc and getting lucky. That's my point; You aren't making a good case for what this reaction test was ever intended to accomplish in the first place.

No? I said it was a piece of a puzzle. I had a vague expectation for how people would react. That’s half the equation. His reaction felt townie to me, but then the Doctor solidified it.

Magic being willing to explain himself and offer a full claim doesn't necessarily distinguish town from scum, and I'm not convinced that Magic "passing" the test should carry as much weight as Pie is giving it.

I think it does. Mafia would be rattled and instantly claim someone. Only way Magic is scum is if Doctor is a fake role claim, and scum visited me with something

I mean if you have doctor as a fake claim up your sleeve, how "rattled" are you ever going to be? I've been pressuring magic since day one, and have been back and forth with him for pages. You think if he was scum he wasn't already "rattled" by that? You think it was you claiming to have been visited that would have shook him to the core?

I think it definitely would’ve been concerning, but this again assumes that Doctor is a fake claim. If there was a CC, it just implicates him, so I wasn’t really concerned about that. With no CC though, it’s more likely than not he’s town.

Originally Posted by ILikePie5 on 9/25/2026 at 12:07 PM (post #229)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/25/2026 at 11:24 AM (post #225)

Originally Posted by ILikePie5 on 9/25/2026 at 10:14 AM (post #223)

Pie — Scum lean

I've moved Pie down somewhat.

I understand his explanation for the visitor situation better now, and I think the reaction test itself was reasonable enough as a concept. My issue is that I'm not convinced the results of the test are as alignment-indicative as Pie seems to think they are.

He’s also a claimed Doctor. I didn’t clear him until after he did that. Match the behavior with the role and the likely conclusion is he’s town from my pov.

So your reaction test was basically useless unless he full claimed? You could have accomplished the same thing from just throwing random pressure on anyone who was a doc and getting lucky. That's my point; You aren't making a good case for what this reaction test was ever intended to accomplish in the first place.

No? I said it was a piece of a puzzle. I had a vague expectation for how people would react. That’s half the equation. His reaction felt townie to me, but then the Doctor solidified it.

Just seems like if mafia had visited you they wouldn’t fess up to it, and it was 90% more likely if you weren’t killed you were just visited by town. Only roles I could think of would be redirector and roleblocker that you would be paranoid of. Did you think you were redirected?

Magic being willing to explain himself and offer a full claim doesn't necessarily distinguish town from scum, and I'm not convinced that Magic "passing" the test should carry as much weight as Pie is giving it.

I think it does. Mafia would be rattled and instantly claim someone. Only way Magic is scum is if Doctor is a fake role claim, and scum visited me with something

I mean if you have doctor as a fake claim up your sleeve, how "rattled" are you ever going to be? I've been pressuring magic since day one, and have been back and forth with him for pages. You think if he was scum he wasn't already "rattled" by that? You think it was you claiming to have been visited that would have shook him to the core?

I think it definitely would’ve been concerning, but this again assumes that Doctor is a fake claim. If there was a CC, it just implicates him, so I wasn’t really concerned about that. With no CC though, it’s more likely than not he’s town.

The doctor being a fake claim is the only scenario I think magic would be scum. But yeah at this point with no other protection roles claimed we’d have to believe there wasn’t another protection. Possible but feels unlikely.

Right now, I’m seeing a Thoth + Kohai team. I could see it being Thoth + WF or Thoth + Luna in an outer scenario. Only way Vader is scum is if Bullish gave Miller as fake claim. Only way Mag1c is scum is if Doctor is fake claim and there are no protectives

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/25/2026 at 1:11 PM (post #230)

Originally Posted by ILikePie5 on 9/25/2026 at 12:07 PM (post #229)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/25/2026 at 11:24 AM (post #225)

Originally Posted by ILikePie5 on 9/25/2026 at 10:14 AM (post #223)

Pie — Scum lean

I've moved Pie down somewhat.

I understand his explanation for the visitor situation better now, and I think the reaction test itself was reasonable enough as a concept. My issue is that I'm not convinced the results of the test are as alignment-indicative as Pie seems to think they are.

He’s also a claimed Doctor. I didn’t clear him until after he did that. Match the behavior with the role and the likely conclusion is he’s town from my pov.

So your reaction test was basically useless unless he full claimed? You could have accomplished the same thing from just throwing random pressure on anyone who was a doc and getting lucky. That's my point; You aren't making a good case for what this reaction test was ever intended to accomplish in the first place.

No? I said it was a piece of a puzzle. I had a vague expectation for how people would react. That’s half the equation. His reaction felt townie to me, but then the Doctor solidified it.

Just seems like if mafia had visited you they wouldn’t fess up to it, and it was 90% more likely if you weren’t killed you were just visited by town. Only roles I could think of would be redirector and roleblocker that you would be paranoid of. Did you think you were redirected?

They had two happens. Deny & basically out themselves or roll the dice and think I was bluffing. Safer option would be to confess.

Magic being willing to explain himself and offer a full claim doesn't necessarily distinguish town from scum, and I'm not convinced that Magic "passing" the test should carry as much weight as Pie is giving it.

I think it does. Mafia would be rattled and instantly claim someone. Only way Magic is scum is if Doctor is a fake role claim, and scum visited me with something

I mean if you have doctor as a fake claim up your sleeve, how "rattled" are you ever going to be? I've been pressuring magic since day one, and have been back and forth with him for pages. You think if he was scum he wasn't already "rattled" by that? You think it was you claiming to have been visited that would have shook him to the core?

I think it definitely would’ve been concerning, but this again assumes that Doctor is a fake claim. If there was a CC, it just implicates him, so I wasn’t really concerned about that. With no CC though, it’s more likely than not he’s town.

The doctor being a fake claim is the only scenario I think magic would be scum. But yeah at this point with no other protection roles claimed we’d have to believe there wasn’t another protection. Possible but feels unlikely.

Exactly the conclusion I arrived at

This game genuinely has me stumped (pun intended). Few things I keep coming back to

1) Thoth

He clearly was softing vanilla from the very beginning. I really don’t see this as w!Thoth

2) Vader

the miller claim sticks out to me esp because there hasn’t been any cop claims yet.

3) Pie

I still don’t like how he tunneled on me all d1 and tried to force me to full claim out of the gate. This day phase he is more towny

3) Mag1c

I don’t get protecting pie at all. That said either he’s a doctor or we legit have no protective roles.

Has w!Thoth ever fake claimed vanilla?