Epstein's Island Mafia DP3

I was working up a breakdown of Luna / Thoth. Specifically focused on if Lunas side was consistent. This is what I was pulling-

So Lunatic-

Their frustration with Shining D1 seemed pretty legit. That gave me a town read. While I am weird enough to get pissed about lurkers as scum I typically see town being the ones that get mad about it and I do not think that was faked. They also seem to push Noah to a lesser extent but with the same focus on D2.

D2 they are immediately focused on being told they could be partnered with me. Kinda makes sense for them to jump on that for a T! Lunatic defending themselves but also defending a green check. This post specifically caught my attention-

I am dubious of the helz wagon only because magic was sussing him all day phase and then he suddenly gets blackmailed, it kind of seems like it was set up to frame him. Do you think helz would be that blatant in blackmailing someone who was suspicious of him? I am open to it, but I am very very dubious.

Thoth is among my top reads, barely participating more than shining last day phase, I almost which I had let mago convince me to lynch him over shining, since shining is notorious for this behavior on both sides. Whiteflame I will stay open minded to as well but my initial thought with him is again that claiming to be vanillized is a strange strategy for scum to play. I can revisit that in the future and probably will, but it's enough for me to have some feelings about him being town. And I am not going to lie man, I find it really weird that you are the only other person in the game to mention a vanillizer in dp1. I just was skimming dp1 and seen you mention it. That said, if you are scum then one of magic or whiteflame would have to be lying since mafia usually only have an action each plus the night kill and you are confirmed popular.

Noah is weird for me, he's getting a lot of noob passes but I don't know how long I can give him those. His thoughts have felt pretty bland throughout the game. I am keeping in mind that this is a younger person, so I don't want to expect high level of play or anything. But his suspicions and overall activity haven't given me a lot to work with.

So all in all, I would have to say I am pretty open to everyone being scum but if I had to eliminate two I would say helz and whiteflame are more likely town in the group I mentioned. I can see magic pulling off some gambit here with the silence thing, especially knowing how busy he is in real life with his pizza shop. I do want to see how helz responds to some of the pressure he's getting, though from my pov there isn't a lot of shove behind it either.

Then later in post 238 there is more of the same challenging a FoS on me. This also lines up with having a green check.

@Mag1cman, I'm not sure what you're allowed to say, but if you can, could you explain the Helz vote at all? Even a yes or no on whether it's based on something from DP1 or something new would help.

Post 254 we pretty much have him flatly calling out Thoth as his top concern

Thoth, I said earlier you were one of my top reads and I want to follow through on that.

Kohai pointed out Mago was voting you when he died. I'll be honest, I lean towards that being WIFOM since killing the guy pushing you is pretty blatant, but it's still something I want to put to you.

Who do you think is lying between WF and magic, and why?

I know you said something about a hurricane adventure so I will wait as long is reasonable for a response, but you are still a top problem for me that we have to deal with at some point.

Here we see Luna calling out Thoth as his top concern.

I feel like all of this lines up. Pretty clean consistency that speaks to a Town Lunatic who really is just a cop with a check. In summary them being frustrated with Shining D1 checks out. Them checking me N1 makes a lot of sense. When I am doing well I get that people want to solve me immediately.

D2 I see a pattern of them being very critical of positions against me which lines up with a check on me. They also voice Thoth as their top concern which they now have checked and claim a guilty on.

Mechanically we have the big question of a 2x blackmailer. (I still feel some type of way that a blackmailer was in the game at all) but the balance of having a 2x is huge. The only way they could be scum is the situation of that being true + Thoth being the actual cop + Mafia getting exactly their role.

TLDR is I feel Luna is very likely exactly as they say and mech points to it as well. Thoth is just scum.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:21 AM (post #149)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:18 AM (post #147)

Or... you know, the bot just didn't register the vote.

Pretty confident savant will count it regardless.

I may update the bot to recognize both VTL: and VTL as valid

Fair. So the options basically come down to either Luna or Thoth being scum atp.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/12/2026 at 9:12 AM (post #141)

Well fuck. I suppose I will drop what I half ass had together then..

Seemed like you were leaning going thoth, sorry if you wanted to deliberate more. But honestly I think this is the safest option. Go into tomorrow with a good head on your shoulders and I trust you will make the right decision.

The fact that wf and Helz are here and haven’t hammered gives me more confidence in w!Thoth

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:24 AM (post #154)

The fact that wf and Helz are here and haven’t hammered gives me more confidence in w!Thoth

It would have to be exactly me or thoth at this point, so up to you guys who you believe more. But thoth's character I feel like is a dead giveaway. I think they silenced themselves to gain town cred.

With no quick hammer there is guaranteed scum beteeen Luna and Thoth.

Lunatic / Thoth are almost never a pair here barring major fps.

Team is either Luna / WF or Luna / Thoth waiting for one of us to mis vote.

Need to calculate these possibilities. But it’s almost always just w!Thoth

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 11:28 AM (post #155)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:24 AM (post #154)

The fact that wf and Helz are here and haven’t hammered gives me more confidence in w!Thoth

It would have to be exactly me or thoth at this point, so up to you guys who you believe more. But thoth's character I feel like is a dead giveaway. I think they silenced themselves to gain town cred.

Yeah. The character is a big red flag. They are the only accuser who claimed.

Most likely the team is just Epstein / Maxwell v everyone else

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 11:28 AM (post #155)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:24 AM (post #154)

The fact that wf and Helz are here and haven’t hammered gives me more confidence in w!Thoth

It would have to be exactly me or thoth at this point, so up to you guys who you believe more. But thoth's character I feel like is a dead giveaway. I think they silenced themselves to gain town cred.

I have my paranoia if you but I’m about 99% certain it’s just Thoth here.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 11:28 AM (post #155)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:24 AM (post #154)

The fact that wf and Helz are here and haven’t hammered gives me more confidence in w!Thoth

It would have to be exactly me or thoth at this point, so up to you guys who you believe more. But thoth's character I feel like is a dead giveaway. I think they silenced themselves to gain town cred.

I have my paranoia if you but I’m about 99% certain it’s just Thoth here.

I am open to hearing opposing thoughts on Luna. I did not get all the way through my ISO there and am in a bit of a time crunch today dealing with a separate business issue with a construction company before having a meeting about that other thing.

My opinion is that 'if' we move forward betting the game that Luna is town by voting Thoth it puts the scum in a position. Killing Luna mostly confirms me. They will have to deal with the green check and argue I am exactly a godfather. But what if I am some insta win for the town? Then they have a T! confirmed Luna as a kingmaker by killing me. But what if I am a PGO and did not alert N1? Would I do such a thing viewing that as a negative utility to town? Targeting me could make them loose anyways.

They are in a pickle I am fine with. I think its obvious at this point I lied about being a citizen with nothing.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 10:23 AM (post #152)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:21 AM (post #149)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:18 AM (post #147)

Or... you know, the bot just didn't register the vote.

Pretty confident savant will count it regardless.

I may update the bot to recognize both VTL: and VTL as valid

Fair. So the options basically come down to either Luna or Thoth being scum atp.

Unless Luna is scum we are now obligated to move on Thoth. Town can not win without voting Thoth if Luna is town.

Anyways. I have to have a separate meeting with a towing company. Open to thoughts but I am strongly looking at simply voting Thoth. Luna's behavior is just too consistent with their claim for me and Thoth I have concerns on before the red check.

Im not mad about the gamestate. Entering N3 Mafia is in a fucking mess. Lol.. I hope post game I can see their chat.

Thoth has to be the lynch here.

1) His flavor claim sticks out like a sore thumb

2) He won’t vote Luna or do anything to at least try to communicate with us.

I’m planning on putting him at L1 later this afternoon. Still want to review things first

I’m giving you 8 hours to get in here and at least try to communicate with us / vote. If not im voting you

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/12/2026 at 11:33 AM (post #160)

I am open to hearing opposing thoughts on Luna. I did not get all the way through my ISO there and am in a bit of a time crunch today dealing with a separate business issue with a construction company before having a meeting about that other thing.

My opinion is that 'if' we move forward betting the game that Luna is town by voting Thoth it puts the scum in a position. Killing Luna mostly confirms me. They will have to deal with the green check and argue I am exactly a godfather. But what if I am some insta win for the town? Then they have a T! confirmed Luna as a kingmaker by killing me. But what if I am a PGO and did not alert N1? Would I do such a thing viewing that as a negative utility to town? Targeting me could make them loose anyways.

They are in a pickle I am fine with. I think its obvious at this point I lied about being a citizen with nothing.

I'll admit, I don't have opposing thoughts on Luna. He would have had to play a pretty long and consistent game of trying to get you on his side for him to be scum, and that's a stretch.

I agree, scum are in a bind with this lynch (assuming we're right).

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/12/2026 at 11:33 AM (post #161)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 10:23 AM (post #152)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:21 AM (post #149)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:18 AM (post #147)

Or... you know, the bot just didn't register the vote.

Pretty confident savant will count it regardless.

I may update the bot to recognize both VTL: and VTL as valid

Fair. So the options basically come down to either Luna or Thoth being scum atp.

Unless Luna is scum we are now obligated to move on Thoth. Town can not win without voting Thoth if Luna is town.

I agree. My perspective is that Thoth is the way to go, I just can't fully shake my suspicions.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:42 AM (post #164)

I’m giving you 8 hours to get in here and at least try to communicate with us / vote. If not im voting you

He's had a long time to do it already, so I wouldn't go 8 hours. I'm willing to wait until near the end of the workday, so about 5.

Im fine with it. I do not see my position changing. The only thing more time will give me is allowing me to go through Thoth more.

The only outside thing I could see is if Noah redirected and it screwed with Luna's check. And yes- I did verify it could have. I was avoiding saying as much waiting to see if Kohai or WF would push that potential. Neither did. Really really really wish this site would obligate OoOs for games but anyone can message the host to verify for themselves.

I am somewhat less motivated to dig through WF and Kohai now. If they want to roll the dice killing me they are more than welcome to do so. Either way we basically end up with a town kingmaker for the Lylo tomorrow imo. If it ends up being me I can dedicate the time and brain cells when that happens. I did not do well digging through WF and Kohai yesterday although I am very focused on a lot of work shit at the same time.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:46 AM (post #166)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:42 AM (post #164)

I’m giving you 8 hours to get in here and at least try to communicate with us / vote. If not im voting you

He's had a long time to do it already, so I wouldn't go 8 hours. I'm willing to wait until near the end of the workday, so about 5.

Agreed, we should use our remaining time for LYLO anyway, thats not a phase you want to have to rush.

If we are all in agreement I figure we should put the timeline on Luna.

If you have anything you want to say for what we have to deal with tomorrow we can give time. I honestly think they are just obligated to kill you given you can check between a 50/50 unless WF is a Godfather or something. Kohai being a Popular Godfather would be weird. I don't know how many games I have seen people have multiple passives but its weird world possible I guess?

Im fine with hammering Thoth any time. Need to focus on real life and I think we are in an ok position with a decent plan for D4. The worst case situation is still pretty good for Town.

Automated Vote Count

This system-generated vote count was posted on behalf of the main host.

Not Voting (5): Helz, Kohai, Lunatic, whiteflame, Thoth

With 5 players alive, the base elimination threshold is 3. Configured role modifiers may change vote power or an individual player's threshold. Day phase ends in 20 hours.
Day phase ends: (your local time).

Not game related but I would like to hammer. I have a weird thing in my head of pretending Mafia has achievements and hammering every single day is something I have never done.

My favorite was a game on MU where I was scum and the top read town. Never got voted a single time even in RVS through the entire game. I figure thats a weird thing I may be the only player to have ever done in a game. If Mafia had achievements that would be a huge one.

Sorry that I am a odd mafia addict : P

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/12/2026 at 12:08 PM (post #172)

Not game related but I would like to hammer. I have a weird thing in my head of pretending Mafia has achievements and hammering every single day is something I have never done.

My favorite was a game on MU where I was scum and the top read town. Never got voted a single time even in RVS through the entire game. I figure thats a weird thing I may be the only player to have ever done in a game. If Mafia had achievements that would be a huge one.

Sorry that I am a odd mafia addict : P

Understood. If it comes down to it and I'm given the opportunity, I'll yield to you.

VTL: Thoth

Honestly fuck it. Im ready to move on from the game. If there actually is a blackmailer and a vanillaizer then I’ll have a few words doe Savant / Pie given all the negative utility town has.

Helz / Luna is the pairing i am most paranoid of.

Thoth

-The fact he wont even try and communicate with the thread bothers me the most

-His character claim sticks out like a sore thumb

-If he was silenced / bkackmailed ans was jnabke to vote as town then town would have aleady lost

-Even if he voted luna 99% he’d be hammered antwah.

Sorry if wrong. I am ready to let it rio and FML if lunatic just won two scum games in a row with a fake cop claim

for future games like thjs we reallt ned a no lynch option. Not being able to no lynch at least once really hurt us

Someone hammer lets go into dp4 with extra time!

Alright let’s move on. If one of yiu is scum with luna then gg to both od you

Yeah. I will wait for Luna to respond before hammer.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 11:17 AM (post #176)

Someone hammer lets go into dp4 with extra time!

Ahh. Well there it is. VTL: Thoth

Automated Vote Count

This system-generated vote count was posted on behalf of the main host.

Thoth (3/3): Kohai (p#174), Lunatic, Helz

Not Voting (2): whiteflame, Thoth

Thoth is guilty. Next day phase up shortly.