Epstein's Island Mafia DP3

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 12:42 PM (post #28)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:27 AM (post #25)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:55 AM (post #20)

Just realized this is up. I am Stephen Hawking, and I am the cop. Np1 I got an innocent on Helz, np2 I got a guilty on Thoth. Justification in a nut shell is that I have one of the greatest minds in history, and nothing escapes my analysis.

I will vote thoth, but I will give everyone a chance to post first so there isn't a quick hammer.

Alright, so straight up Cop then? Little odd for Hawking in particular, though he is in the Epstein files. I believe there would be a Cop or similar in this game, partly for balance and partly due to the only investigative so far being roles gifted by an Inventor.

I mean considering hawkings mental acuity, the justification made sense to me.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility, just doesn’t feel like an obvious fit.

Noah’s dead, so that means you’re largely just considering me atm. Is it just POE or do you have an active reason to sus me?

Right, I am retarded. I didn't realize noah was dead. POE is part of it, but we are still playing into the idea that there was a vanillizer and a blackmailer np1, with no counters to two protective roles, a cop and the watcher/tracker abilities that magic had. So unless mafia have some powerful role that accounts for two of those happening as well as counters to multiple investigations and protections, it's a bit of a stretch. Behaviorally you are fine, I suppose you haven't done anything wrong. I was initially town reading you when you had claimed vanillized and even bought you over magic last day phase. Do you see the dilemma we face here?

Bit of a town slip, so that helps your case.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say there are no counters to protective roles. That assumes scum don’t have a Strongman or similar, and I’d say the Vanillaizer is a counter, albeit not one that would prevent protection the night it’s applied. I don’t see the stretch here, and yes, I could absolutely see scum having a response to your Cop investigation at minimum.

I do see that dilemma. I’m not saying you should take me off the table or assume I’m town at this point. It wouldn’t be a first for someone to be Popular scum and have other roles, but I doubt it, so I understand why you’d take Kohai off the table. Helz is a different story. I get trusting your result, but Godfather seems entirely plausible here, especially given the number of investigations associated with the Epstein case. Maybe Lawyer might be more plausible if we assume Dershowitz is in this game. Regardless, I can’t say I’ve got good reason to write off Helz even while buying your claim.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 12:44 PM (post #29)

So far only thoths character really feels like an outlier here. So mafia must have used at least one question to secure a good fake.

Having whiffed on both questions as scum in similar situations, I’d be hesitant to say they “must have” a good fake. Also, I’ll note that your visit to Helz confirms they are not the PGO, which means they’ve claimed VT.

Automated Vote Count

This system-generated vote count was posted on behalf of the main host.

Not Voting (5): Helz, Kohai, Lunatic, whiteflame, Thoth

With 5 players alive, the base elimination threshold is 3. Configured role modifiers may change vote power or an individual player's threshold. Day phase ends in 1 day, 19 hours.
Day phase ends: (your local time).

It’s not out of the realm of possibility, just doesn’t feel like an obvious fit.

Made sense to me.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say there are no counters to protective roles. That assumes scum don’t have a Strongman or similar, and I’d say the Vanillaizer is a counter, albeit not one that would prevent protection the night it’s applied. I don’t see the stretch here, and yes, I could absolutely see scum having a response to your Cop investigation at minimum.

I do see that dilemma. I’m not saying you should take me off the table or assume I’m town at this point. It wouldn’t be a first for someone to be Popular scum and have other roles, but I doubt it, so I understand why you’d take Kohai off the table. Helz is a different story. I get trusting your result, but Godfather seems entirely plausible here, especially given the number of investigations associated with the Epstein case. Maybe Lawyer might be more plausible if we assume Dershowitz is in this game. Regardless, I can’t say I’ve got good reason to write off Helz even while buying your claim.

Of the two I would have a harder time buying helz as his scum partner, because the amount of actions that would have confirmed to have taken place still doesn't add up. We know magic was blackmailed, since there was no reason for him to lie about that. So for you to be vanillized, magic to have been black mailed, and scum have a passive god father on top of that, all for one night phase, seems a bit OP. But even if I were to buy it was OP it's still unusual to have scum use more than one action a night. Not impossible, but unlikely. I am willing to consider kohai as the scum mate as well, maybe it seemed like I was dismissing him too easy. He has been pretty analytical and thorough this game, so my vibe initially is that he is town, but I am open minded.

Having whiffed on both questions as scum in similar situations, I’d be hesitant to say they “must have” a good fake. Also, I’ll note that your visit to Helz confirms they are not the PGO, which means they’ve claimed VT.

Yeah I never really bought that helz was PGO, its an uncommon enough role as is. We should probably have him fully fess up though to being vanilla if he is one.

Going to bed here shortly, I'll be on this evening.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 1:30 PM (post #34)

It’s not out of the realm of possibility, just doesn’t feel like an obvious fit.

Made sense to me.

I’ll set it aside since I buy the claim regardless.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say there are no counters to protective roles. That assumes scum don’t have a Strongman or similar, and I’d say the Vanillaizer is a counter, albeit not one that would prevent protection the night it’s applied. I don’t see the stretch here, and yes, I could absolutely see scum having a response to your Cop investigation at minimum.

I do see that dilemma. I’m not saying you should take me off the table or assume I’m town at this point. It wouldn’t be a first for someone to be Popular scum and have other roles, but I doubt it, so I understand why you’d take Kohai off the table. Helz is a different story. I get trusting your result, but Godfather seems entirely plausible here, especially given the number of investigations associated with the Epstein case. Maybe Lawyer might be more plausible if we assume Dershowitz is in this game. Regardless, I can’t say I’ve got good reason to write off Helz even while buying your claim.

Of the two I would have a harder time buying helz as his scum partner, because the amount of actions that would have confirmed to have taken place still doesn't add up. We know magic was blackmailed, since there was no reason for him to lie about that. So for you to be vanillized, magic to have been black mailed, and scum have a passive god father on top of that, all for one night phase, seems a bit OP. But even if I were to buy it was OP it's still unusual to have scum use more than one action a night. Not impossible, but unlikely. I am willing to consider kohai as the scum mate as well, maybe it seemed like I was dismissing him too easy. He has been pretty analytical and thorough this game, so my vibe initially is that he is town, but I am open minded.

In both cases, you’d have to account for a passive role (Popular or Godfather) for circumstances to have worked out this way. I get that that that’s a lot to swallow. I’d say in part that it’s a balance issue, one that led us to mislynch Mag1c last DP. And hell, my Castlevania game had a Popular player on the scum team with active roles they could use as well. Whether that’s Godfather or Popular, it’s happened, just a question of whether you buy it’s happening now.

Having whiffed on both questions as scum in similar situations, I’d be hesitant to say they “must have” a good fake. Also, I’ll note that your visit to Helz confirms they are not the PGO, which means they’ve claimed VT.

Yeah I never really bought that helz was PGO, its an uncommon enough role as is. We should probably have him fully fess up though to being vanilla if he is one.

I’d like clarity on that as well.

In both cases, you’d have to account for a passive role (Popular or Godfather) for circumstances to have worked out this way. I get that that that’s a lot to swallow. I’d say in part that it’s a balance issue, one that led us to mislynch Mag1c last DP. And hell, my Castlevania game had a Popular player on the scum team with active roles they could use as well. Whether that’s Godfather or Popular, it’s happened, just a question of whether you buy it’s happening now.

It’s possible and worth consider that a scum popular could have another night action. It’s rare which is why I said it’s unlikely but I won’t dismiss it out of hand.

I am blackmailed.

Thoth almost certainly is scum here. I have rarely seen a blackmailer that’s more than 1 shot.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 3:02 PM (post #39)

Thoth almost certainly is scum here. I have rarely seen a blackmailer that’s more than 1 shot.

Much as I have a lot of misgivings about Thoth, I disagree with this. The Blackmailer here is essentially a Silencer that allows the target to out that they were Silenced and gives them an opportunity to vote once. It is not at all unusual for a Silencer to have multiple shots. That doesn’t make him town and I believe this is likely a gambit too, but let’s not play the game of what we think is likely for this role after getting it so clearly wrong last DP.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 3:15 PM (post #40)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 3:02 PM (post #39)

Thoth almost certainly is scum here. I have rarely seen a blackmailer that’s more than 1 shot.

Much as I have a lot of misgivings about Thoth, I disagree with this. The Blackmailer here is essentially a Silencer that allows the target to out that they were Silenced and gives them an opportunity to vote once. It is not at all unusual for a Silencer to have multiple shots. That doesn’t make him town and I believe this is likely a gambit too, but let’s not play the game of what we think is likely for this role after getting it so clearly wrong last DP.

This is true.

Anyway, with Thoth having chimed in and apparently unable to claim, we have a big black box left on the board. That’s a problem, but it’s not the only unknown.

Mag1c should have given out two roles, one in DP1 and one in DP2. I had it confirmed by Savant that, even with his lynch, he should have been able to successfully give someone a role.

So two people should have received roles from Mag1c, but no one has said that they did. Maybe they’re both dead. Mag1c had a town lean on Magoroth, so maybe he gave him a role DP1. I have a much harder time believing that he gave a role to Noah. I know from reading the PM that it’s same day use. So either Mag1c got fed up and gave out no role at all, he gave it to Thoth who can’t speak despite remaining nervous of him, or he gave it to someone who is still keeping that hidden.

I did not receive anytbing

Well then..

So I am the 'soldier' and I have no day or night action. This is part of why I was so convinced that there was an imbalance.

I figured baiting scum to push or target me was an ok D1 play even if I did it rather poorly imo and when I claimed D2 I figured that exact same play would fit what I might do as a limited shot PGO.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:21 PM (post #44)

Well then..

So I am the 'soldier' and I have no day or night action. This is part of why I was so convinced that there was an imbalance.

I figured baiting scum to push or target me was an ok D1 play even if I did it rather poorly imo and when I claimed D2 I figured that exact same play would fit what I might do as a limited shot PGO.

Alright. Justification?

Remind me what soldier is?

So for Thoth to not be flatly scum both Luna would have to lie about being an investigator + the Mafia team would have to have a 2nd Blackmailing charge. The only real way I see a S! Luna making this play is if Thoth had their role revealed to the mafia start of DP1 and Thoth is the real invest with Luna fake claiming after having his team silence them.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 3:27 PM (post #46)

Remind me what soldier is?

Just flavor. Initially I wondered if all town were told that as a citizen and was watching for it but I asked and was told I have no day or night action.

I did 36 years in the IDF so I am a soldier. I duno. Its flavor.

My role has nothing and does nothing. I guess its an improvement over some town that had a straight up negative utility but I am kinda surprised to see everyone in this game claim abilities and such.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:29 PM (post #47)

So for Thoth to not be flatly scum both Luna would have to lie about being an investigator + the Mafia team would have to have a 2nd Blackmailing charge. The only real way I see a S! Luna making this play is if Thoth had their role revealed to the mafia start of DP1 and Thoth is the real invest with Luna fake claiming after having his team silence them.

Magoroth's death revealed a town PM to scum. So yes, it is possible that Luna is scum, had the role revealed to him at the start of DP2 (not DP1) and is just using the actual PM as his claim. I've been concerned about that ever since the start of DP2. I suspect it's also the reason why you've been so concerned about my claim.

My biggest tin foil hat theory is Thoth is the real cop and scum silenced them so he can’t CC.

Automated Vote Count

This system-generated vote count was posted on behalf of the main host.

Not Voting (5): Helz, Kohai, Lunatic, whiteflame, Thoth

With 5 players alive, the base elimination threshold is 3. Configured role modifiers may change vote power or an individual player's threshold. Day phase ends in 1 day, 16 hours.
Day phase ends: (your local time).

Wait. If someone is blackmailed / silenced into not voting or posting wouldn’t that mean town loses immediately in LyLo?

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 4:38 PM (post #51)

My biggest tin foil hat theory is Thoth is the real cop and scum silenced them so he can’t CC.

Hey, that's my tinfoil...

Seriously, this has been bothering me since Luna claimed...

I will say that if I was faking a claim right now I would 100% claim a BP function. Would very easily fit my flavor and be a very safe claim. Its very odd that I seem to be the only actual vanilla in the entire game and I do recognize that. But its why I was so deadset yesterday that Blackmailer + Vannalizer + Auto win timer = imbalance.

Im leaning twords just Trusting Luna's claim. Them checking me N1 makes sense. I expect they would want me out of the way. Im skimming DP2 to double check their interactions concerning me. Then there is the consideration of 2 charges of Blackmailer in a game that may only be 3 days long? That sounds kinda fucked even if we had a redirect able to shift that around. (Assuming redirect even could, Blackmailer typically is not even a visiting role to begin with)

I am also paranoid that its Lylo. Luna could simply have gotten Thoth's role, recognized they are invest, then claimed their role and blackmailed them.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 4:39 PM (post #53)

Wait. If someone is blackmailed / silenced into not voting or posting wouldn’t that mean town loses immediately in LyLo?

Based on last DP, he can still vote. That being said, if the circumstances were so obvious that it was just Luna using Thoth's PM, I would expect him to have immediately VTL'd Luna.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 4:40 PM (post #56)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 4:39 PM (post #53)

Wait. If someone is blackmailed / silenced into not voting or posting wouldn’t that mean town loses immediately in LyLo?

Based on last DP, he can still vote. That being said, if the circumstances were so obvious that it was just Luna using Thoth's PM, I would expect him to have immediately VTL'd Luna.

This. And that’s what bothering me rn

Im still surprised Blackmailer is in the game to begin with. It really is a pretty bastard mechanic requiring people to not work twords their win condition.

Would a 2x Blackmailer even be possible?

I suspect our tinfoil hat theory is at least not entirely accurate, which at least partly suggests that Luna is telling the truth.

The lack of an immediate vote from Thoth is interesting. If he was town and scum had just stolen his PM and used it as Luna's claim, I don't think he'd wait to vote. Would he vote immediately as scum? Initially thought yes, but the more I think about it, the less I believe it. Doing so would immediately make clear that the scum pair is not among the remaining 3 players (the one he votes for and himself excluded) since they don't just quickhammer. It's a smart decision either as scum or town with a non-CC role to just wait and see how the DP goes.

We'd also have to believe that the random player's PM they received was exactly Thoth's (a 1/7 chance), and that they received a Cop PM and didn't try to kill the Cop. I guess scum might not have known who the player was (at least I don't think that's how the Singer works), but still, stands as odd that they'd wait to use it here knowing that Thoth could still cast a vote. Maybe they're just banking on Thoth being a relatively sus player with an unknown PM.

There is also a question. We all recognize there is 100% a 1v1 between Luna/Thoth with Thoth claiming blackmailed.

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

This would leave the D4 of Kohai, WF, Helz. I feel its a decent idea for us to solve there if we draw the conclusion that Thoth is absolutely the second scum. Although I do have the bias that this also gives me a 50/50