Epstein's Island Mafia DP4

I still feel like I'm repeating myself ad nauseum and don't feel like you're actually listening to me. Luna's behavior doesn't match what we'd expect from a cop. That right there is the entire solve.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:28 PM (post #179)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 5:47 PM (post #174)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

Yes. It's clear that scum was planning to bus Thoth. What motive do I have to tell Thoth to fake that he was blackmailed?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Faking red checks on town is a very risky move for scum. For one, there is still the unknown of whether or not yourself or another town member could clear you. Second, if you are going ot fake claim cop you're gonna have go give us something. It's very easy for scum to fake cop results.

You’re going to need to get into this more. In the context of DP3 where we all largely bought his Cop claim, what was the risk of claiming a red check? You seemed poised to VTL me for a while without a red check, so did Helz. Why not take advantage of that?

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 6:37 PM (post #182)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:28 PM (post #179)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 5:47 PM (post #174)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

Yes. It's clear that scum was planning to bus Thoth. What motive do I have to tell Thoth to fake that he was blackmailed?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Faking red checks on town is a very risky move for scum. For one, there is still the unknown of whether or not yourself or another town member could clear you. Second, if you are going ot fake claim cop you're gonna have go give us something. It's very easy for scum to fake cop results.

You’re going to need to get into this more. In the context of DP3 where we all largely bought his Cop claim, what was the risk of claiming a red check? You seemed poised to VTL me for a while without a red check, so did Helz. Why not take advantage of that?

I hade made it abundanelty clear in the day phase that I was paranoid of luna. If there ended up being a 1v1 between you and Luna there's a very strong risk that I'd come around and end up voting luna.

and look, post # 5

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=5

"My main worry is a Helz / Luna team or a Luna / Thoth team."

Called it.

So faking a guilty on you was very risky. Especially since I was already questioning my read on you originally

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=3

the Big WIfOM question; Would wf claim vanillaized?

So from luna's POV a 1v1 between the two of you would have been too risky

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:35 PM (post #181)

I still feel like I'm repeating myself ad nauseum and don't feel like you're actually listening to me. Luna's behavior doesn't match what we'd expect from a cop. That right there is the entire solve.

I’ve acknowledged those issues, dude. I’m focusing in on the areas that don’t match what I’d expect from Luna as scum, not those issues I feel have been discussed. I appreciate the repetition, but I’m not in the business of rehashing what I think we’ve already covered.

Anyway, concert. I’ll check in afterwards.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 6:59 PM (post #184)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:35 PM (post #181)

I still feel like I'm repeating myself ad nauseum and don't feel like you're actually listening to me. Luna's behavior doesn't match what we'd expect from a cop. That right there is the entire solve.

I’ve acknowledged those issues, dude. I’m focusing in on the areas that don’t match what I’d expect from Luna as scum, not those issues I feel have been discussed. I appreciate the repetition, but I’m not in the business of rehashing what I think we’ve already covered.

Anyway, concert. I’ll check in afterwards.

Alright. Enjoy the concert

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Good morning, im up.. Kohai I'll address your points in a single post.

No hints on Helz DP2: I was “very very dubious” of the Helz wagon in #42 and called it a possible frame. I pushed back on being paired with him in #39 and floated a Helz/Magic bus instead. That’s what a cop protecting an inno without outing himself looks like.

Hypos: nobody posted hypos DP2. The N0 system only works if everyone does it. If I’m the only one posting “hypothetical results” on day 2, I’ve outed myself as the cop. I endorsed the system, I didn’t endorse suicide.

“Why would I have Thoth fake blackmail?”: in your scum world, Thoth just got caught by a real cop. His only out is making town doubt that cop. The blackmail claim produced exactly that: the “Thoth is the real cop and scum silenced him” tinfoil. Go look at who pushed it. You did, #51 and #86 of DP3.

“A fake guilty on WF was too risky”: handing town my own partner was way riskier than that. And Helz’s plan didn’t need a guilty at all. One vote inside his pool and the game’s over.

The meta: every result I’ve given in this game flipped exactly as I said. That’s what WF is weighing, not Majora’s Mask.

WF, Kohai still hasn’t answered your #174. He keeps saying I bussed but can’t explain why I’d bus instead of taking the free lynch. That’s the whole case.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:40 PM (post #183)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 6:37 PM (post #182)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:28 PM (post #179)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 5:47 PM (post #174)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

Yes. It's clear that scum was planning to bus Thoth. What motive do I have to tell Thoth to fake that he was blackmailed?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Faking red checks on town is a very risky move for scum. For one, there is still the unknown of whether or not yourself or another town member could clear you. Second, if you are going ot fake claim cop you're gonna have go give us something. It's very easy for scum to fake cop results.

You’re going to need to get into this more. In the context of DP3 where we all largely bought his Cop claim, what was the risk of claiming a red check? You seemed poised to VTL me for a while without a red check, so did Helz. Why not take advantage of that?

I hade made it abundanelty clear in the day phase that I was paranoid of luna. If there ended up being a 1v1 between you and Luna there's a very strong risk that I'd come around and end up voting luna.

and look, post # 5

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=5

"My main worry is a Helz / Luna team or a Luna / Thoth team."

Called it.

So faking a guilty on you was very risky. Especially since I was already questioning my read on you originally

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=3

the Big WIfOM question; Would wf claim vanillaized?

So from luna's POV a 1v1 between the two of you would have been too risky

So your argument is that the lynch choice wasn't a given, and that Luna's decision to give a red check on Thoth instead of you or me was driven by the belief that he needed to establish distance between the two of them because, at least at the time, it looked like the focus would be on Thoth and Luna. Am I summarizing that correctly?

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 9:15 PM (post #188)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:40 PM (post #183)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 6:37 PM (post #182)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:28 PM (post #179)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 5:47 PM (post #174)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

Yes. It's clear that scum was planning to bus Thoth. What motive do I have to tell Thoth to fake that he was blackmailed?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Faking red checks on town is a very risky move for scum. For one, there is still the unknown of whether or not yourself or another town member could clear you. Second, if you are going ot fake claim cop you're gonna have go give us something. It's very easy for scum to fake cop results.

You’re going to need to get into this more. In the context of DP3 where we all largely bought his Cop claim, what was the risk of claiming a red check? You seemed poised to VTL me for a while without a red check, so did Helz. Why not take advantage of that?

I hade made it abundanelty clear in the day phase that I was paranoid of luna. If there ended up being a 1v1 between you and Luna there's a very strong risk that I'd come around and end up voting luna.

and look, post # 5

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=5

"My main worry is a Helz / Luna team or a Luna / Thoth team."

Called it.

So faking a guilty on you was very risky. Especially since I was already questioning my read on you originally

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=3

the Big WIfOM question; Would wf claim vanillaized?

So from luna's POV a 1v1 between the two of you would have been too risky

So your argument is that the lynch choice wasn't a given, and that Luna's decision to give a red check on Thoth instead of you or me was driven by the belief that he needed to establish distance between the two of them because, at least at the time, it looked like the focus would be on Thoth and Luna. Am I summarizing that correctly?

Exactly. The lynch choice wasn’t a given and there were far too many risks for Luna to try and pull that off.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 8:07 PM (post #187)

Good morning, im up.. Kohai I'll address your points in a single post.

Hey, glad you got some rest, dude.

No hints on Helz DP2: I was “very very dubious” of the Helz wagon in #42 and called it a possible frame. I pushed back on being paired with him in #39 and floated a Helz/Magic bus instead. That’s what a cop protecting an inno without outing himself looks like.

It's not really a question of whether you were townreading Helz in DP2. Helz himself acknowledged that you were, and I've acknowledged it as well. The question is more specific: do your posts give any kind of indication that you used your Cop role and got a green check on Helz? That "very very dubious" line came after an explanation that focused on Mag1c's sussing him and choosing him as a Blackmail target. If I squint, maybe that's an indicator that you had inside information, but FYI, if you'd been NK'd at the end of DP2, I wouldn't have seen it as obvious that you'd gotten a green check on him. Pushing back on being paired with him even less so. I'm not fixating on this, it's a minor point at best, but it's a point that still stands.

Hypos: nobody posted hypos DP2. The N0 system only works if everyone does it. If I’m the only one posting “hypothetical results” on day 2, I’ve outed myself as the cop. I endorsed the system, I didn’t endorse suicide.

I'm just not putting much stock in hypos, so I'm going to leave this.

“Why would I have Thoth fake blackmail?”: in your scum world, Thoth just got caught by a real cop. His only out is making town doubt that cop. The blackmail claim produced exactly that: the “Thoth is the real cop and scum silenced him” tinfoil. Go look at who pushed it. You did, #51 and #86 of DP3.

This is your strongest point. It's something I've been considering for a while and I think you're right that Kohai had an independent reason if he is scum to have Thoth claim to be Blackmailed and then push attention onto him, which is your red check on Thoth. I agree that that's the case. As for the tinfoil point, it was always pretty weak (calling it tinfoil in the first place didn't give it much weight or staying power and the idea basically was dead when Thoth hadn't autovoted you), though I get your meaning that it necessarily did put attention on you.

“A fake guilty on WF was too risky”: handing town my own partner was way riskier than that. And Helz’s plan didn’t need a guilty at all. One vote inside his pool and the game’s over.

I agree there was a risk in handing over your partner, and the opportunity to get that one vote would have been very tempting if you were scum.

The meta: every result I’ve given in this game flipped exactly as I said. That’s what WF is weighing, not Majora’s Mask.

WF, Kohai still hasn’t answered your #174. He keeps saying I bussed but can’t explain why I’d bus instead of taking the free lynch. That’s the whole case.

I agreed with this at first, but looking over his response, he does actually say what he thinks was going on: that based on the timing of your claim and list of selected targets and results, you might not have believed you had an easy route to victory through a lynch on either me or Kohai. I'm going to read back through a lot of the early DP3 to see if that tracks, but the argument may have merit since I believe the suggestion to focus on Helz, Kohai and me came significantly later. It's not as strong as your argument, but it's not implausible from where I'm sitting.

On my way to work will respond more when I get there

Around 10 hours or so remaining. I’m going to sleep soon. Feel free to ask me any final questions though I feel like I’ve said everything already.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:42 PM (post #192)

Around 10 hours or so remaining. I’m going to sleep soon. Feel free to ask me any final questions though I feel like I’ve said everything already.

Yeah, decision’s happening tonight. I feel like we’ve exhausted the majority of discussion points. I’m going to do some digging through the links you posted, revisit DP3 a bit, and address anything lingering from you and Luna before I VTL. I will post reasoning with it, not sure how long it’s going to be but I don’t want to write a massive essay after all this so it’ll likely be mostly summary.

t's not really a question of whether you were townreading Helz in DP2. Helz himself acknowledged that you were, and I've acknowledged it as well. The question is more specific: do your posts give any kind of indication that you used your Cop role and got a green check on Helz? That "very very dubious" line came after an explanation that focused on Mag1c's sussing him and choosing him as a Blackmail target. If I squint, maybe that's an indicator that you had inside information, but FYI, if you'd been NK'd at the end of DP2, I wouldn't have seen it as obvious that you'd gotten a green check on him. Pushing back on being paired with him even less so. I'm not fixating on this, it's a minor point at best, but it's a point that still stands.

Making it obvious that you have a green check on someone kind of defeats the purpose of not immediately just revealing the result. I didn't feel like helz was an immediate lynch, if I did I would have happily revealed and blown my cover to save him. But magic insta voting him is part of the reason I suspected magic in the first place. I was also open to my result not being accurate, beccause at the time I thought there was likely a lawyer or godfather. There still might be. Regardless, I don't see a world where cop should reveal innocents unless its absolutely neccesary to do so.

This is your strongest point. It's something I've been considering for a while and I think you're right that Kohai had an independent reason if he is scum to have Thoth claim to be Blackmailed and then push attention onto him, which is your red check on Thoth. I agree that that's the case. As for the tinfoil point, it was always pretty weak (calling it tinfoil in the first place didn't give it much weight or staying power and the idea basically was dead when Thoth hadn't autovoted you), though I get your meaning that it necessarily did put attention on you.

Unfortunately most of the case me or kohai can make against each other will essentially boil down to WIFOM, the only evidence I have is my results, which you don't seem to place a ton of stock in, so it is what it is.

I agreed with this at first, but looking over his response, he does actually say what he thinks was going on: that based on the timing of your claim and list of selected targets and results, you might not have believed you had an easy route to victory through a lynch on either me or Kohai. I'm going to read back through a lot of the early DP3 to see if that tracks, but the argument may have merit since I believe the suggestion to focus on Helz, Kohai and me came significantly later. It's not as strong as your argument, but it's not implausible from where I'm sitting.

Look at what happened before my claim at #20:

#2, Kohai: “Almost certain it’s wf.”

#5, Kohai: worried about a Helz/Luna or Luna/Thoth team.

#7, Kohai: Thoth’s flavor “sticks out.”

So at the exact moment I claimed, Kohai was already almost certain on you, and attention was starting to turn to Thoth. If I’m scum, the move is obvious: claim cop with a guilty on WF. It confirms Kohai’s own top read, so he votes with me. Thoth votes. That’s three, and the game’s over in the first hour. It also pulls attention off Thoth right as it’s building.

I didn’t need Helz’s plan to have a route. The easiest scum win in the game was sitting there the moment I claimed, and it matched what Kohai already believed. Instead I put a guilty on the guy Kohai was worried was my partner.

Do posts get linked now when from the same day if you just reference the post? Testing #194

Cool feature but doesn't work for previous day phases. Though I guess with the bot you can just put an entire game in one thread now, so it hypothetically should work as intended.

I've already covered the timeline here, including post #111. I agree, both you and Kohai had a lot of incentive to lynch among me, Helz and Kohai, with Kohai targeting me and you targeting either Kohai or me. I believe that you both had that opportunity, so one of you had a decision to make and you went with a bus instead. For either of you, when you made that decision, Helz necessarily had to be the NK that NP. That's not uncertain. What is uncertain is which of you made that call.

I don’t think it’s symmetrical. The only person who decided to give up Thoth is whoever put the guilty on him. If Kohai is scum, a cop just red-checked his partner and he can’t counterclaim it, so voting Thoth isn’t a choice, it’s forced. If I’m scum, I had to manufacture that guilty while a free lynch was sitting there. One of us reacted to a result. The other would have had to invent it.

Based on the timeline I'm reading (look at my previous post), Kohai was poised to make the same decision you did. Helz had already said that we all had to be aligned to successfully lynch last DP. The fact that he hadn't locked in yet and you had is a point in your favor. His consistency from post #99 onward is a point in his.

Kohai was very resistant to lynching Thoth up until the moment I forced the vote by voting thoth first, even when he was willing to lynch between us, he was spreading bussing paranoia and suspicion about me. I never fully got the feeling from him that he was on board with lynching thoth until it would have appeared scummy as heck not to vote him. The difference in our positions related to thoth is that Kohai was forced into a thoth lynch, I actively wanted one. The only argument that can be made for me lynching thoth there was that I wanted to bus. I only bus out of necessity, not insanity. There is no reason to bus here.

We've been over the consistency of the flips and your results. I've covered that multiple times now, though if you're just looking for where I've landed with it, I'll say it's more likely than not a positive sign.

On consistency, that’s after my claim at #20. Pushing Thoth after a cop guilty is following the cop, not an independent read. And between my claim and #99 he was floating “Thoth is the real cop” in #51 and #86.

The phrasing on some of this, however, is a little off. You said that you "argued against the free scum win" by arguing that we should lynch Thoth. Knowing what you know now, the "free scum win" would only have happened if we'd lynched Helz (wasn't going to happen) or me (a reasonable possibility). The Kohai lynch, from your perspective, would have successfully eliminated scum, so no, lynching among the three of us wasn't a "free scum win" by default.

I mean within the world we’re testing. If I’m scum, then Helz, Kohai and you are all town. Any lynch in that pool wins. That’s what makes it free.

I'm going to set aside my issues with your follow-up to Thoth for now. I think you have a point about how you followed up in different ways, even if the main one - the red check - is one I can't verify you got.

Thoth’s flip verifies it lol

forgot to tag you in my response to 159

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:05 PM (post #194)

Making it obvious that you have a green check on someone kind of defeats the purpose of not immediately just revealing the result. I didn't feel like helz was an immediate lynch, if I did I would have happily revealed and blown my cover to save him. But magic insta voting him is part of the reason I suspected magic in the first place. I was also open to my result not being accurate, beccause at the time I thought there was likely a lawyer or godfather. There still might be. Regardless, I don't see a world where cop should reveal innocents unless its absolutely neccesary to do so.

Dropping this point. It's not really relevant to any decision I'd make anyway.

Unfortunately most of the case me or kohai can make against each other will essentially boil down to WIFOM, the only evidence I have is my results, which you don't seem to place a ton of stock in, so it is what it is.

It's not that I'm not putting stock in your results, they matter strategically. I can't verify that evidence, though, whether you have it or not.

Look at what happened before my claim at #20:

#2, Kohai: “Almost certain it’s wf.”

#5, Kohai: worried about a Helz/Luna or Luna/Thoth team.

#7, Kohai: Thoth’s flavor “sticks out.”

So, let's be thorough about this.

You're right about post #2. He also said he didn't want to rush to a decision.

You left out post #3, where he questioned the WIFOM of my being Vanillaized.

He then pointed to the two teams in #5.

He sussed Thoth's flavor claim in #7 and even suggested a theme split that would have placed Thoth in scum.

Then he pushed for your and Thoth's full claims in #13 and posted a variety of possible pairings in #18.

So at the exact moment I claimed, Kohai was already almost certain on you, and attention was starting to turn to Thoth. If I’m scum, the move is obvious: claim cop with a guilty on WF. It confirms Kohai’s own top read, so he votes with me. Thoth votes. That’s three, and the game’s over in the first hour. It also pulls attention off Thoth right as it’s building.

I didn’t need Helz’s plan to have a route. The easiest scum win in the game was sitting there the moment I claimed, and it matched what Kohai already believed. Instead I put a guilty on the guy Kohai was worried was my partner.

The above starts off reading as almost certain on me, but then deviates and becomes more about the game generally and the unknowns in play. I think it's possible you're right that a faked guilty on me could have led to a lynch. I know both Helz and Kohai spent a lot of time agonizing over the decision and seemed to be zeroing in on me for a bit. I'm not absolutely certain of it, but yeah, more than decent likelihood.

I’m gonna be going to bed within the next 15ish minutes. Last call to ask me any final questions.

I’m kinda tired of repeating the same points ad nauseum

So, let's be thorough about this.

You're right about post #2. He also said he didn't want to rush to a decision.

You left out post #3, where he questioned the WIFOM of my being Vanillaized.

He then pointed to the two teams in #5.

He sussed Thoth's flavor claim in #7 and even suggested a theme split that would have placed Thoth in scum.

Then he pushed for your and Thoth's full claims in #13 and posted a variety of possible pairings in #18.

I think it actually helps my point. In #5 and #18 Kohai was already worried about a Luna/Thoth team, and in #7 attention was building on Thoth. If I’m scum, my partner is drawing heat and the town’s main voice is already pairing us. The last thing I do is put a guilty on Thoth and walk straight into that pairing. I redirect onto you, which Kohai already leaned in #2 and #3. I did the opposite.

The above starts off reading as almost certain on me, but then deviates and becomes more about the game generally and the unknowns in play. I think it's possible you're right that a faked guilty on me could have led to a lynch. I know both Helz and Kohai spent a lot of time agonizing over the decision and seemed to be zeroing in on me for a bit. I'm not absolutely certain of it, but yeah, more than decent likelihood.

Every result has been checked against reality. Helz flipped town, Thoth flipped Maxwell, and you know you’re town. I get that a scum faking cop would know those too. So the only question is why I’d pick those results. You just said a fake guilty on you had a “more than decent likelihood” of winning the game. If I’m scum, that’s the result I give. I gave you a green check and handed you my “partner” instead.

That’s all I’ve got. Whatever you decide, thanks for actually digging into it.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on

Every result has been checked against reality.

Wnich again is quite easy for scum.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:18 PM (post #197)

I don’t think it’s symmetrical. The only person who decided to give up Thoth is whoever put the guilty on him. If Kohai is scum, a cop just red-checked his partner and he can’t counterclaim it, so voting Thoth isn’t a choice, it’s forced. If I’m scum, I had to manufacture that guilty while a free lynch was sitting there. One of us reacted to a result. The other would have had to invent it.

I think you're misunderstanding my point. The symmetry is that both of you had the opportunity to mislynch me if you're scum, and neither of you took it. In your case, that opportunity came when you claimed and said your target was Thoth. In his case, that opportunity came when Helz and Kohai were on the same page about lynching me out of the three of us. They both expressed it multiple times. He couldn't have engineered that opportunity like you could, but he nonetheless had it, and if they'd both voted for me, Thoth would have hammered. So yes, the symmetry is the bus. You both chose to do so when you had a mislynch opportunity on the table.

Kohai was very resistant to lynching Thoth up until the moment I forced the vote by voting thoth first, even when he was willing to lynch between us, he was spreading bussing paranoia and suspicion about me. I never fully got the feeling from him that he was on board with lynching thoth until it would have appeared scummy as heck not to vote him. The difference in our positions related to thoth is that Kohai was forced into a thoth lynch, I actively wanted one. The only argument that can be made for me lynching thoth there was that I wanted to bus. I only bus out of necessity, not insanity. There is no reason to bus here.

The timeline doesn't match up to this. Kohai expressed an interest in pivoting attention back to Thoth before you voted. If your point is that he wouldn't have voted Thoth without you posting a vote first, then I'm surprised he made statements like:

"I think lynching Thoth is the best because in a w!Thoth we force scum to resolve Luna for us." #95

"The longer Thoth does nothing the more I wanna resolve him today" #137

Both posts happened before you posted the vote.

On consistency, that’s after my claim at #20. Pushing Thoth after a cop guilty is following the cop, not an independent read. And between my claim and #99 he was floating “Thoth is the real cop” in #51 and #86.

We've been over the timeline here, too. Kohai did express some suspicions over Thoth in DP2. And yes, you've kept pointing back to the tinfoil hat theory. Covered that, too.

I mean within the world we’re testing. If I’m scum, then Helz, Kohai and you are all town. Any lynch in that pool wins. That’s what makes it free.

Again, pointing to the fact that both of you had the opportunity for a mislynch.

Thoth’s flip verifies it lol

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:40 PM (post #200)

I’m gonna be going to bed within the next 15ish minutes. Last call to ask me any final questions.

I’m kinda tired of repeating the same points ad nauseum

He's doing his due dilligence here, and I think he's exploring both sides pretty thoroughly, which is more than most players would do in his choose, myself included. That said, I don't think he's just repeating the same things, if he was I wouldn't bother replying to it. He's trying to really break into our mentality through each of our decisions and get in our head space. That's a good thing.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:43 PM (post #202)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on

Every result has been checked against reality.

Wnich again is quite easy for scum.

Not really, when it's been established the Thoth check didn't need to happen and a free win was guaranteed from going elsewhere yesterday with a clearly laid out path to do so if I was scum.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:44 PM (post #204)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:40 PM (post #200)

I’m gonna be going to bed within the next 15ish minutes. Last call to ask me any final questions.

I’m kinda tired of repeating the same points ad nauseum

He's doing his due dilligence here, and I think he's exploring both sides pretty thoroughly, which is more than most players would do in his choose, myself included.m

Agreed with that. I always commend wf for being thorough.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:42 PM (post #201)

So, let's be thorough about this.

You're right about post #2. He also said he didn't want to rush to a decision.

You left out post #3, where he questioned the WIFOM of my being Vanillaized.

He then pointed to the two teams in #5.

He sussed Thoth's flavor claim in #7 and even suggested a theme split that would have placed Thoth in scum.

Then he pushed for your and Thoth's full claims in #13 and posted a variety of possible pairings in #18.

I think it actually helps my point. In #5 and #18 Kohai was already worried about a Luna/Thoth team, and in #7 attention was building on Thoth. If I’m scum, my partner is drawing heat and the town’s main voice is already pairing us. The last thing I do is put a guilty on Thoth and walk straight into that pairing. I redirect onto you, which Kohai already leaned in #2 and #3. I did the opposite.

Said it several times already, but I'll repeat: I recognize that the bus doesn't make obvious sense from you. I've said already how it also doesn't make sense from Kohai's perspective later in the DP.

Every result has been checked against reality. Helz flipped town, Thoth flipped Maxwell, and you know you’re town. I get that a scum faking cop would know those too. So the only question is why I’d pick those results. You just said a fake guilty on you had a “more than decent likelihood” of winning the game. If I’m scum, that’s the result I give. I gave you a green check and handed you my “partner” instead.

We've been over this, too. Several times.

That’s all I’ve got. Whatever you decide, thanks for actually digging into it.

Yup... got a lot to pour over...

Alright. I’m off to bed. The game is in your hands.

I think you're misunderstanding my point. The symmetry is that both of you had the opportunity to mislynch me if you're scum, and neither of you took it. In your case, that opportunity came when you claimed and said your target was Thoth. In his case, that opportunity came when Helz and Kohai were on the same page about lynching me out of the three of us. They both expressed it multiple times. He couldn't have engineered that opportunity like you could, but he nonetheless had it, and if they'd both voted for me, Thoth would have hammered. So yes, the symmetry is the bus. You both chose to do so when you had a mislynch opportunity on the table.

I disagree, I had a choice, kohai didn't. I forced the vote yesterday. With unvoting not being allowed, I was forcing the vote in #140. Helz called attention to that in #142 when he said "So to be clear- every single town has to vote together for town not to loose. Given Luna voted and can not unvote we now are obligated to pull this trigger."

The only other lynch option on the table was for you to all go for me, which didn't seem likely for kohai since helz was town reading me. He had no choice but to vote for thoth or look scummy. I think there is a stark difference here. Kohais intended mislynch targets were exactly you and me, and I think thoth was silenced to make me look scummy. Luckily you lot didn't buy into that, but if I or you were lynched that would have been game over. He didn't vote thoth until he was forced to.

The timeline doesn't match up to this. Kohai expressed an interest in pivoting attention back to Thoth before you voted. If your point is that he wouldn't have voted Thoth without you posting a vote first, then I'm surprised he made statements like:

"I think lynching Thoth is the best because in a w!Thoth we force scum to resolve Luna for us." #95

"The longer Thoth does nothing the more I wanna resolve him today" #137

Both posts happened before you posted the vote.

But both of those posts came after my claim at #20. Preferring Thoth once a cop has red-checked him isn’t an independent read, it’s following the result. And in between he was still floating “Thoth is the real cop. The core point doesn’t depend on how Kohai voted anyway. The only person who decided to give up Thoth is whoever created the guilty on him. If Kohai is scum, he was reacting to a result he couldn’t dispute. If I’m scum, I invented it while a guilty on you, which you just agreed had a more than decent chance, was sitting right there.

Again, pointing to the fact that both of you had the opportunity for a mislynch.

The point is I had an oppertunity for a game winning mislynch and didn't take it. Thats the takeaway here.

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

It verifies my results.

Im just being thorough and trying to adress everything. If you feel it;s getting repetitive I am happy to stop, just trying to make sure we have everything covered before the decision.