Epstein's Island Mafia DP4

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 1:50 PM (post #60)

I’d look at it as each counter matching what it’s countering. Town’s one-shot roles got one-shot counters, Strongman for the doc/BP and Ninja for the one-shot tracker/watcher. The one role that keeps going every night got the one counter that’s permanent. The Vanillizer is the only ability in this game that shuts a role off for good, and the cop is the only role that really cares about that.

Strongman was one shot, but countered three different shots (my BP and the 2X Doc). Ninja countered two separate uses of different one shot roles with one shot of its own. So, no, I don't buy that it's one shot roles getting one shot counters. I also just don't agree that the Cop would be the only role that cares about the Vanillaizer. I cared about it and I just lost a single-use BP. Anyone losing any roles "cares" about it.

With the clock, this game was always max 4 days with forced lynches, so 3 nights. “Unlimited” works out to 3 checks, which is basically the same as the Inventor’s 3 one-shot items. It fits the setup more than you’d think.

The Inventor probably bears the least resemblance to your role out of the available active roles beyond mine, but let's go with it. The Inventor could give out a maximum of two shots of investigative roles, all to other people whom the user may or may not trust, yet yours allows you personally to investigate 3 other people and that's equivalent? I don't see it.

You said yourself DP1 that scum may have had prep time and we shouldn’t trust fast claims at face value. Asking about Clinton is low risk for scum. He’s near guaranteed to be in an Epstein game, and it confirms he isn’t taken. DJT would be the obvious one, but you already had him.

Yeah, and that's always been a consideration, but it's an extra factor that I can't ever be certain of. Weird that you'd say asking about Clinton is low risk when you just said he was the most obvious pick to be in this game.

This. Do you really think Hawking is in the game but Clinton isn’t?

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:43 PM (post #57)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:38 AM (post #54)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:23 PM (post #45)

If I actually get mislynched here I can't even be too mad about it. My history of bussing has caused a lot of paranoia, it was bound to backfire on me at some point. That said, I would actually have been retarded to choose a bus here over just pushing helz towards lynching outside of me and thoth yesterday, when that was almost something we did. I basically doubled down on a bus over a free win is the argument here lol.

I'm considering that as well. I agree, I think there were viable routes to a win last DP if you were scum. It baffled me then and it baffles me now.

I can, however, see reasons why you would make the choice. For one, if you didn't think you had a good role claim for Thoth, he would almost certainly have been lynched anyway if he'd ended up claiming. There was already attention on him for his character claim, so no, Helz was not the sole focus of attention going into DP3. For another, you could have already felt pretty locked into the decision to keep Helz on your side after laying the groundwork by townreading and defending him in the previous DP. Not impossible to pivot from that, but considering his attention was squarely on Kohai and me for much of the DP, I could see the value in pocketing him, even if it meant you'd have to kill him should he pivot to Thoth as he did.

I get the reasoning, but go back to the very start of DP3. Kohai’s first post of the day was “Almost certain it’s wf.” Five alive, three votes to lynch. If I’m scum, me, Thoth and Kohai end the game right there. Nobody had to claim anything, and Thoth could stay “blackmailed” and silent. Free win in the first hour.

Instead I claimed cop and handed you a guilty on my own supposed partner. As scum that’s trading a guaranteed win for a coin flip on DP4. Nobody does that.

On pocketing Helz: if I wanted Helz on my side I’d just agree with him. I wouldn’t need a cop result, and I definitely wouldn’t burn the night kill on the guy I was supposedly pocketing.

...except Kohai was reticent to actually post a vote. Yes, if he had posted one, there was the possibility that you both would have jumped on me and the game would have been over. He didn't, so I don't get this hypothetical. Yeah, he was sussing me. I acknowledged the reason for it several times in the DP and it made sense. Helz sussed me for very similar reasons and he was town.

And yes, I am considering the decisions on the Cop results you gave. Assuming you're scum for a moment, I don't think it was ever a given that you could just run away with it in DP3, not with all the sus on Thoth at the time. And I know you well enough to know you'd be willing to make some pretty risky moves if it meant others would see you as strongly town for doing it, including bussing your partner. It's not a given, I still don't think it was the obvious play if you are scum, but I can't write you off as town for doing it.

I just disagree on that last point. I think if you believed you could convince me, then yes, you would WIFOM the decision to kill Helz. It's not out of the realm of possibility.

Its a little worrying that whiteflame doesn't seem to be suspicious of kohai at all here. I am getting the vibe that he might already have his mind made up here lol

Mechanically, he has more support than you. I'm not leaving it solely up to mechanics, but for right now, that's what I'm mainly considering. I'm going to shift to behavior when I get a chance.

Anyway, have to take a break, I'll be back later.

Strongman was one shot, but countered three different shots (my BP and the 2X Doc). Ninja countered two separate uses of different one shot roles with one shot of its own. So, no, I don't buy that it's one shot roles getting one shot counters. I also just don't agree that the Cop would be the only role that cares about the Vanillaizer. I cared about it and I just lost a single-use BP. Anyone losing any roles "cares" about it.

The difference is there is a back up to losing a bulletproof in a world where we didn’t lynch a doctor np1, there’s not really one for cop. Vanillizer hitting me is more devastating which makes it a better counter imo.

The Inventor probably bears the least resemblance to your role out of the available active roles beyond mine, but let's go with it. The Inventor could give out a maximum of two shots of investigative roles, all to other people whom the user may or may not trust, yet yours allows you personally to investigate 3 other people and that's equivalent? I don't see it.

You don’t see a role existing in this game when that same role has existed in 90% of games in every game you’ve ever played because it’s not the same as some other random role that exists in the game? Come on Whiteflame. Mafia had plenty of things to counter me and had ways to kill me.

Yeah, and that's always been a consideration, but it's an extra factor that I can't ever be certain of. Weird that you'd say asking about Clinton is low risk when you just said he was the most obvious pick to be in this game. Generally speaking, as scum, I would almost never risk asking about one of the most likely characters to be in a game. Sure, you'd just lose out on a character claim, but that can be a sizeable loss by itself and you'd gain, at best, light intel.

Asking about Clinton’s a high risk high reward claim that lays off immediately and is better the sooner you claim it.

Alright. What I'd like to understand, then, is how either Epstein or Derschowitz would fit the profile of a Blackmailer/Lawyer/Popular. I could see either of them fitting two of those, but not the full suite of 3.

I never said scum needed a Lawyer, I said maybe. Drop it and it's just Blackmailer + Popular, and that fits Epstein perfectly. He's infamous for collecting blackmail material on powerful people, and Popular is basically his whole deal: everyone's friend, the social hub of the entire network. Two roles, both on the nose for him. Claiming Clinton is a good cover for that. What I'd really like you to weigh is #57, since you haven't touched it. Kohai's very first post of DP3 was "almost certain it's wf." If I'm scum, me, Thoth and Kohai win the game right there, no claims needed. Instead I claimed cop and handed you a guilty on my own partner. Every one of my results has flipped exactly as I said. Balance arguments cut both ways. That one doesn't.

Read Thoth’s ISO. There’s very little mention of Luna in their posts and almost no interactions.

Same with Luna.

They avoid talking to each other or snout each other

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 12:04 PM (post #64)

Read Thoth’s ISO. There’s very little mention of Luna in their posts and almost no interactions.

Same with Luna.

They avoid talking to each other or snout each other

I was on Thoth all game, he was pretty inactive for the most part but I had pressured him and asked him questions so that’s just false.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 12:04 PM (post #64)

Read Thoth’s ISO. There’s very little mention of Luna in their posts and almost no interactions.

Same with Luna.

They avoid talking to each other or snout each other

I was on Thoth all game, he was pretty inactive for the most part but I had pressured him and asked him questions so that’s just false.

The difference is there is a back up to losing a bulletproof in a world where we didn’t lynch a doctor np1, there’s not really one for cop. Vanillizer hitting me is more devastating which makes it a better counter imo.

There's no backup for the Inventor. There's no backup for the Redirector. I get that a Cop is more of a mainstay role, but you've argued that it's not as "big" of an effect as either the Doc or the Redirector. Why is the Vanillaizer a counter to your role specifically and not any of those, especially as you'd still get a shot off with it if you'd been Vanillaized DP1?

The Inventor probably bears the least resemblance to your role out of the available active roles beyond mine, but let's go with it. The Inventor could give out a maximum of two shots of investigative roles, all to other people whom the user may or may not trust, yet yours allows you personally to investigate 3 other people and that's equivalent? I don't see it.

You don’t see a role existing in this game when that same role has existed in 90% of games in every game you’ve ever played because it’s not the same as some other random role that exists in the game? Come on Whiteflame. Mafia had plenty of things to counter me and had ways to kill me.

This is just a bad faith response. Read what I said again. I said that I don't see why your role would specifically get three shots while others would only get two. It's not about the existence of a Cop, though I have covered that specifically (see all my other responses), it's about the unlimited shots. Also, it was your point that the Inventor was akin to your Cop because it had 3 shots, not mine. The burden's on you to show how the Inventor increases the likelihood of the existence of a Cop. I've already said my piece about the counters as well.

Asking about Clinton’s a high risk high reward claim that lays off immediately and is better the sooner you claim it.

Agreed. Once again, it assumes that he had extra time before the DP to ask those questions and chose this specific character knowing that they were likely present in the game. Like I said last DP, not impossible but implausible.

I never said scum needed a Lawyer, I said maybe. Drop it and it's just Blackmailer + Popular, and that fits Epstein perfectly. He's infamous for collecting blackmail material on powerful people, and Popular is basically his whole deal: everyone's friend, the social hub of the entire network. Two roles, both on the nose for him. Claiming Clinton is a good cover for that. What I'd really like you to weigh is #57, since you haven't touched it. Kohai's very first post of DP3 was "almost certain it's wf." If I'm scum, me, Thoth and Kohai win the game right there, no claims needed. Instead I claimed cop and handed you a guilty on my own partner. Every one of my results has flipped exactly as I said. Balance arguments cut both ways. That one doesn't.

Except that, if we drop the Lawyer out, there's no specific counter to your claimed Cop. I've already acknowledged that Epstein could fit the Blackmailer + Popular, but again, that assumes that your role is the only one with solely positive town utility (I'd say the Redirector is a mixed bag at best and the Commuter has its own concerns since they also couldn't be investigated, but the BP, Doc and Tracker/Watcher are a different story) to which scum had no specific counters. There's something else that's sticking out to me from the flip, which is that it says "a JOAT" rather than a specific kind of JOAT. Maybe I'm just reading into it too much, but I'd count it as unusual that two mafia team members are both just "a JOAT," which is what you're suggesting is the case here. When I've done it before, I've delineated between the types of JOATs in each of the PMs. That might just be me, so I'm not putting much weight on that, but it bothers me.

I actually did respond to #57 in #62, so that's just incorrect. You can feel free to address that when you come back on later, I'm not hammering anyone for a good while yet.

Think about it this way

Which flavor is more likely to be in tbe game: Bill Clinton or Stephen Hawking?

If I were popular scum then I’d need to have been able to claim my role + immediately figure out a possible character / justification that fits. From scum POV Clinton is highly likely to he in the game (Luna himself admitted it). So I would have very little time to concut a fake claim and reverse engineer justification

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 2:04 PM (post #64)

Read Thoth’s ISO. There’s very little mention of Luna in their posts and almost no interactions.

Same with Luna.

They avoid talking to each other or snout each other

To be fair, Thoth wasn't really all that engaged with reads in general. He posted one set of reads back in DP1 where he lightly sussed Luna for failing to note how phases work this game, which I didn't find alignment indicative. In DP2, he started to townread Luna, I think in part because he was portraying it as Luna vs. Mag1c at the time. He said he felt "decent" on Luna later in the DP and "not so decent" on Mag1c, but it was never clear why the flip happened on Luna and that looks worse going back through. It's a weird flip in perception. He never returned to the issue that made him sus Luna in DP1.

Luna on the other hand did at least engage with Thoth on the read front. He pushed back on Thoth's initial read on him, but largely just kept him in POE because he was absent early on. Fair enough, I think we all did. Made a lot of suggestions in that first DP that he was willing to shift from Shining to Thoth, made a bit of noise about Thoth throughout DP2 but never voted him there despite regularly having him as one of his biggest suspects. I wouldn't say he was protective of him per se, but despite multiple efforts to engage with him, I didn't see any pressure from Luna. It wasn't until the start of DP3 that he signaled intent to vote for Thoth and followed through on it.

Think about it this way

Which flavor is more likely to be in tbe game: Bill Clinton or Stephen Hawking?

If I were popular scum then I’d need to have been able to claim my role + immediately figure out a possible character / justification that fits. From scum POV Clinton is highly likely to he in the game (Luna himself admitted it). So I would have very little time to concut a fake claim and reverse engineer justification

I think I've already made it clear who I'm favoring mechanically and based on flavor, so you don't have to push the point. Like I said, you'd have to have had time before the start of the DP to ask questions, come up with a claim, and post it. It's possible, even if I wouldn't say it's likely.

Anyway, I can't just spend the rest of my workday on here, so I'll pick this up when I get home this evening. I want to do an ISO on both of you and compare them. Taking a little time away will also give me an opportunity to reset my uncertainties and focus my attention off of mechanical/flavor reads.

Automated Vote Count

This system-generated vote count was posted on behalf of the main host.

Kohai (1/2): Lunatic (p#22)

Lunatic (1/2): Kohai (p#24)

Not Voting (1): whiteflame

With 3 players alive, the base elimination threshold is 2. Configured role modifiers may change vote power or an individual player's threshold. Day phase ends in 1 day, 13 hours.
Day phase ends: (your local time).

Alright, I'm back at it. I'm going to do a deep dive focusing on DP1 and DP2 for both Kohai and Luna focused entirely on behavior.

Kohai -

Started off with Thoth just clarifying that he has an SOP claim. Kohai mentioned a Vanillaizer in DP1, which did get called out by Thoth before he rather quickly dropped the issue. Could have been more for show and establishing distance, but it wasn't much.

Bit of a weird one-off vote in the middle of DP1 that turned into a "JK" unvote. Sussed Shining over flavor analysis that, at least in retrospect, rightly implicated Thoth.

Even stranger choice to townread Thoth pretty early into DP2, saying that his behavior looked the same as last game. Said he was going to analyze his ISO and that didn't really happen, but there wasn't much to ISO from Thoth that early. He did, however, start to reconsider the read when he realized Thoth was Magoroth's sus. Straight up asked if Thoth had a Vanillaizing role, which is kind of hilarious in retrospect.

Some disagreement between them on the balance of existing roles. Thoth seemed much more willing to accept that balance than Kohai did, though all this was before the Inventor flip and Luna's Cop claim. Rightly questioned why Thoth believed an unclaimed player at the time was most likely scum, pushed back on the weird daycop scenario, and agreed that the claim of Virginia Giuffre stood as pretty distinct and strange.

So a bit of a peak and valley situation from where I'm sitting. Their early interactions feel like they might favor Kohai a bit, since it's an odd thing to call out Kohai for participating in a claim set so early and not note or agree with the SOP claim. After that, it's a bunch of strange perspectives from Kohai back-to-back before he starts reconsidering his reads and changes tacks on Thoth. I can see the progression pretty clearly and it's not an unnatural transition. I don't really get his perspective late DP1 or early DP2, so that's a bit of a red flag, but if his goal was to take attention off of Thoth, he wasn't doing a very good job, and if the goal was to distance himself from Thoth, it's a mixed bag.

I’ll leave balance alone. We’ve both said our piece and neither of us knows the full setup. On the JOAT point, I never suggested Kohai is a JOAT. Popular is a modifier, so what I’m suggesting is just a Popular Blackmailer. I am pointing out that we don't know what the other scum even has to say that they don't have a lawyer or something is a bit of a reach when we don't know the full set up, but we at the vest least know a vanillizer exists, and counters my role. On me never voting Thoth in DP2, that day was the WF vs Mag1c question. Town agreed one of you was lying, and that was what we needed to resolve. I pushed Thoth with questions and kept him at the top of my list, but I wasn’t going to pull the day off the main question for an activity read. I voted him the moment I had a result.

Since you’re moving to behavior, I’d point you at a couple things from your own ISO of Kohai. 1. Kohai brought up a Vanillizer on DP1, before anyone had been vanillized. Scum turned out to have exactly that. Kohai townread Thoth early in DP2, the confirmed scum, saying his behavior looked the same as last game. You called that “an even stranger choice” yourself. I had Thoth as a top suspect from DP1 on and never let up. Thoth sussed me in DP1, and I sussed him right back the whole game. If we were partners, that’s a whole lot of distancing with zero payoff.

Luna -

Going to get this out of the way first, Luna's had a couple of towntells over the course of the DP that I'm considering. They're peppered into the DP at various points, e.g. asking Savant to ping Thoth, the "derp" moment with the uncertainty about the lack of an NP, and the confusion over Noah's NK. I'm still considering them and whether they were purposely included, but I am giving him a bit of credit for them (particularly the derp since Thoth briefly called him out for his lack of familiarity with the DP structure).

Apart from that, though, there's not a lot to cover between Luna and Thoth in those first two DPs. Luna pointed to a lack of contribution on Thoth's part, which is just low-hanging fruit that a lot of us were discussing at the time.

Luna's perspective on Thoth was more skeptical than Kohai's by the end of DP1 and he said that he'd help push Thoth in DP2. That was basically instantly forgotten when DP2 started. I get it to some degree since Magoroth was dead and with him the push on Thoth was kind of dead in the water. The problem I have is that Luna's attention doesn't go away from him, yet he doesn't post a vote on Thoth at all throughout the DP. That includes calling out the outlier claim later in the DP and pointing back to the vote from Magoroth on Thoth the previous DP. To some degree, I get it given the whole hurricane situation as a reason for delaying a push, but past the point when he started posting more, I can't say I understand the absence of a push given that he remained Luna's top scumread throughout much of the DP.

I wouldn't say there's anything obviously wrong here, he's sussing Thoth for the same reasons many of us were. It's just odd how hands off he was throughout DP2 despite that.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:36 PM (post #75)

Luna -

Going to get this out of the way first, Luna's had a couple of towntells over the course of the DP that I'm considering. They're peppered into the DP at various points, e.g. asking Savant to ping Thoth, the "derp" moment with the uncertainty about the lack of an NP, and the confusion over Noah's NK. I'm still considering them and whether they were purposely included, but I am giving him a bit of credit for them (particularly the derp since Thoth briefly called him out for his lack of familiarity with the DP structure).

Luna has been playing mafia long enough to know how to find the answers to these questions. It is very easy to fake derp yourself (I know because I've done it myself).

With regards to their d1 interactions - Luna had plenty of opportunity to push for a thoth lynch but does not. He stays on shinning. He asks Shining who he wants to lynch. When shining says Thoth he stays on Thoth.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 7:36 PM (post #75)

Luna -

Going to get this out of the way first, Luna's had a couple of towntells over the course of the DP that I'm considering. They're peppered into the DP at various points, e.g. asking Savant to ping Thoth, the "derp" moment with the uncertainty about the lack of an NP, and the confusion over Noah's NK. I'm still considering them and whether they were purposely included, but I am giving him a bit of credit for them (particularly the derp since Thoth briefly called him out for his lack of familiarity with the DP structure).

Apart from that, though, there's not a lot to cover between Luna and Thoth in those first two DPs. Luna pointed to a lack of contribution on Thoth's part, which is just low-hanging fruit that a lot of us were discussing at the time.

Luna's perspective on Thoth was more skeptical than Kohai's by the end of DP1 and he said that he'd help push Thoth in DP2. That was basically instantly forgotten when DP2 started. I get it to some degree since Magoroth was dead and with him the push on Thoth was kind of dead in the water. The problem I have is that Luna's attention doesn't go away from him, yet he doesn't post a vote on Thoth at all throughout the DP. That includes calling out the outlier claim later in the DP and pointing back to the vote from Magoroth on Thoth the previous DP. To some degree, I get it given the whole hurricane situation as a reason for delaying a push, but past the point when he started posting more, I can't say I understand the absence of a push given that he remained Luna's top scumread throughout much of the DP.

I wouldn't say there's anything obviously wrong here, he's sussing Thoth for the same reasons many of us were. It's just odd how hands off he was throughout DP2 despite that.

WF, fair read, and I appreciate you giving the towntells their due. On being hands off with Thoth in DP2: I’d point out you did the exact same thing. In your #280 you called Thoth “the most probable person to be his scum partner,” then voted Mag1c in #288, because DP2 was the WF vs Mag1c question and we all treated that as the lynch. I was in the same spot. I did put Thoth on the spot in #254 and told him he was still a top problem we had to deal with, but I wasn’t going to split votes away from the main question on an activity read. When I had a result, I voted him.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 7:38 PM (post #76)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:36 PM (post #75)

Luna -

Going to get this out of the way first, Luna's had a couple of towntells over the course of the DP that I'm considering. They're peppered into the DP at various points, e.g. asking Savant to ping Thoth, the "derp" moment with the uncertainty about the lack of an NP, and the confusion over Noah's NK. I'm still considering them and whether they were purposely included, but I am giving him a bit of credit for them (particularly the derp since Thoth briefly called him out for his lack of familiarity with the DP structure).

Luna has been playing mafia long enough to know how to find the answers to these questions. It is very easy to fake derp yourself (I know because I've done it myself).

With regards to their d1 interactions - Luna had plenty of opportunity to push for a thoth lynch but does not. He stays on shinning. He asks Shining who he wants to lynch. When shining says Thoth he stays on Thoth.

Kohai, the derp point can’t be proven either way so I’ll leave it. But the Shining point applies to you just as much. You asked Shining “why is this?” when he named Thoth, then voted Shining anyway and called him “still the best lynch.” That was the consensus DP1 lynch and we were all on it. I also told Mago in DP1 I’d help pressure Thoth once the day resolved, and that’s what I did.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 9:27 PM (post #74)

I’ll leave balance alone. We’ve both said our piece and neither of us knows the full setup. On the JOAT point, I never suggested Kohai is a JOAT. Popular is a modifier, so what I’m suggesting is just a Popular Blackmailer. I am pointing out that we don't know what the other scum even has to say that they don't have a lawyer or something is a bit of a reach when we don't know the full set up, but we at the vest least know a vanillizer exists, and counters my role. On me never voting Thoth in DP2, that day was the WF vs Mag1c question. Town agreed one of you was lying, and that was what we needed to resolve. I pushed Thoth with questions and kept him at the top of my list, but I wasn’t going to pull the day off the main question for an activity read. I voted him the moment I had a result.

Maybe we just differ on this front, but I'd view someone with two separate roles, even one passive and one active role, as a JOAT of sorts. I'm not going to be ride or die on that perspective since mine might not be shared widely and it's mainly just semantics anyway.

My point about the Lawyer is that it doesn't make sense for Epstein, who wasn't in the legal profession. It would make sense for Derschowitz, but calling him Popular would be a tough sell. So while I agree that we don't know the full setup, we do know that the other scum player is one of those two, and neither checks all 3 boxes without stretching dramatically to fit.

I've said what I'm going to say about the Vanillaizer and framing it as a counter. You can keep repeating that it's a counter to your role, but I'll tell you now, I'm not buying that framing.

And fair enough on the focus of DP2, though I'll note you didn't exactly join either side on that question, either. I didn't see a vote at all during the DP. Wouldn't say that's sus, but I do think it's a little strange to keep calling attention to the fact that Thoth was on top of your sus list and not post a vote on him or anyone else.

Since you’re moving to behavior, I’d point you at a couple things from your own ISO of Kohai. 1. Kohai brought up a Vanillizer on DP1, before anyone had been vanillized. Scum turned out to have exactly that. Kohai townread Thoth early in DP2, the confirmed scum, saying his behavior looked the same as last game. You called that “an even stranger choice” yourself. I had Thoth as a top suspect from DP1 on and never let up. Thoth sussed me in DP1, and I sussed him right back the whole game. If we were partners, that’s a whole lot of distancing with zero payoff.

Kohai also pointed to where he mentioned the same role in a previous game where he was town. Don't know if I buy that he gives any indication that he knows a role as obvious as Vanillaizer is in the game if he's scum, either. It's something, but I'm hesitant to put too much weight on the mention.

I've already stated my perspective on Kohai early DP2 and I agree it's odd. I can, however, clearly see his progression to sussing him. Maybe he faked that, there's always a possibility that he just decided to put some distance between them.

Both yours and Thoth's susses on one another were pretty weak, man. Really doesn't help that neither of you voted the other. Thoth only ever voted Shining. I can give you some credit for the consistent scumread, but it's not exactly the kind of solid distance you're making it out to be.

Pay attention to this

Magoroth just voted Thoth, they voted Shining and stated they would be willing to switch to Thoth or Noah.

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8f/epsteins-island-mafia-dp1?comment_number=320

Also pay attention to the night kills and actions:

1) Magoroth was killed N1 voting Thoth

2) Mag1c was blackmailed n1 and had Luna as his second sus

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8f/epsteins-island-mafia-dp1?comment_number=285

3) Noah died n1 sussing Luna

Ask yourself: Why is Noah the n2 kill and why is Mag1c the person blackmailed?

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:38 PM (post #76)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:36 PM (post #75)

Luna -

Going to get this out of the way first, Luna's had a couple of towntells over the course of the DP that I'm considering. They're peppered into the DP at various points, e.g. asking Savant to ping Thoth, the "derp" moment with the uncertainty about the lack of an NP, and the confusion over Noah's NK. I'm still considering them and whether they were purposely included, but I am giving him a bit of credit for them (particularly the derp since Thoth briefly called him out for his lack of familiarity with the DP structure).

Luna has been playing mafia long enough to know how to find the answers to these questions. It is very easy to fake derp yourself (I know because I've done it myself).

With regards to their d1 interactions - Luna had plenty of opportunity to push for a thoth lynch but does not. He stays on shinning. He asks Shining who he wants to lynch. When shining says Thoth he stays on Thoth.

Yeah, like I said, it's plausible he just did this to sprinkle in town tells purposefully. It's plausible.

I think you mean when Shining says Thoth, he stayed on Shining. I don't see any votes on Thoth from Luna before DP3.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:54 PM (post #82)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:38 PM (post #76)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:36 PM (post #75)

Luna -

Going to get this out of the way first, Luna's had a couple of towntells over the course of the DP that I'm considering. They're peppered into the DP at various points, e.g. asking Savant to ping Thoth, the "derp" moment with the uncertainty about the lack of an NP, and the confusion over Noah's NK. I'm still considering them and whether they were purposely included, but I am giving him a bit of credit for them (particularly the derp since Thoth briefly called him out for his lack of familiarity with the DP structure).

Luna has been playing mafia long enough to know how to find the answers to these questions. It is very easy to fake derp yourself (I know because I've done it myself).

With regards to their d1 interactions - Luna had plenty of opportunity to push for a thoth lynch but does not. He stays on shinning. He asks Shining who he wants to lynch. When shining says Thoth he stays on Thoth.

Yeah, like I said, it's plausible he just did this to sprinkle in town tells purposefully. It's plausible.

I think you mean when Shining says Thoth, he stayed on Shining. I don't see any votes on Thoth from Luna before DP3.

Yeah that's what I meant.

Both Luna and Thoth sussed each other but neither voted each other until day 3

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 7:54 PM (post #82)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:38 PM (post #76)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:36 PM (post #75)

Luna -

Going to get this out of the way first, Luna's had a couple of towntells over the course of the DP that I'm considering. They're peppered into the DP at various points, e.g. asking Savant to ping Thoth, the "derp" moment with the uncertainty about the lack of an NP, and the confusion over Noah's NK. I'm still considering them and whether they were purposely included, but I am giving him a bit of credit for them (particularly the derp since Thoth briefly called him out for his lack of familiarity with the DP structure).

Luna has been playing mafia long enough to know how to find the answers to these questions. It is very easy to fake derp yourself (I know because I've done it myself).

With regards to their d1 interactions - Luna had plenty of opportunity to push for a thoth lynch but does not. He stays on shinning. He asks Shining who he wants to lynch. When shining says Thoth he stays on Thoth.

Yeah, like I said, it's plausible he just did this to sprinkle in town tells purposefully. It's plausible.

I think you mean when Shining says Thoth, he stayed on Shining. I don't see any votes on Thoth from Luna before DP3.

WF, fair, I didn’t vote DP2. I was going to (I said as much when Helz hammered), but the wagon moved before I got there. And yeah, I’ll agree the Thoth/me susses on each other weren’t strong distance. I’m not resting on that. My case is my results.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 9:43 PM (post #77)

WF, fair read, and I appreciate you giving the towntells their due. On being hands off with Thoth in DP2: I’d point out you did the exact same thing. In your #280 you called Thoth “the most probable person to be his scum partner,” then voted Mag1c in #288, because DP2 was the WF vs Mag1c question and we all treated that as the lynch. I was in the same spot. I did put Thoth on the spot in #254 and told him he was still a top problem we had to deal with, but I wasn’t going to split votes away from the main question on an activity read. When I had a result, I voted him.

There's a difference between stating that I think I know the likely team and specifically putting attention on one of them (in this case, Mag1c) with the aim of getting to the other (Thoth) based on the flip. I don't see that kind of reasoning from you in your posts, and while you put some attention and Mag1c and me, there wasn't a clear decision that I could see. I do see you putting Thoth on the spot, but never stating a clear intent to vote or actually voting. I agree that changed in DP3.

Kohai, if you want to follow the trail, follow all of it. Mag1c’s top sus wasn’t me, it was Helz, “solid scum.” I was a “much lighter” second. After he got blackmailed, the only thing he could do was vote Helz. And the very first person to jump on that vote was you, DP2 #13. WF flagged that himself in DP2: “I didn’t like the early jumping on the same vote with Mag1c.” The Blackmailer silenced Mag1c, his vote landed on Helz, you piled on, and that Helz vs Mag1c fight is what got town Mag1c lynched. The trail of blood points at Thoth just as much. Mago died voting him, and Thoth was scum. And Noah’s own N1 plan was a redirect between you and me, with a “strong scum read on one” of us. His sus wasn’t only on me.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:59 PM (post #85)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 9:43 PM (post #77)

WF, fair read, and I appreciate you giving the towntells their due. On being hands off with Thoth in DP2: I’d point out you did the exact same thing. In your #280 you called Thoth “the most probable person to be his scum partner,” then voted Mag1c in #288, because DP2 was the WF vs Mag1c question and we all treated that as the lynch. I was in the same spot. I did put Thoth on the spot in #254 and told him he was still a top problem we had to deal with, but I wasn’t going to split votes away from the main question on an activity read. When I had a result, I voted him.

There's a difference between stating that I think I know the likely team and specifically putting attention on one of them (in this case, Mag1c) with the aim of getting to the other (Thoth) based on the flip. I don't see that kind of reasoning from you in your posts, and while you put some attention and Mag1c and me, there wasn't a clear decision that I could see. I do see you putting Thoth on the spot, but never stating a clear intent to vote or actually voting. I agree that changed in DP3.

Also keep in mind we were almost forced to lynch mag1c that day. If he was towna nd we lynched outside him we could still have lost on the spot if he failed his blackmail challenge and got killed as a result. Plus there was no further contribution from him

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 10:00 PM (post #86)

Kohai, if you want to follow the trail, follow all of it. Mag1c’s top sus wasn’t me, it was Helz, “solid scum.” I was a “much lighter” second. After he got blackmailed, the only thing he could do was vote Helz. And the very first person to jump on that vote was you, DP2 #13. WF flagged that himself in DP2: “I didn’t like the early jumping on the same vote with Mag1c.” The Blackmailer silenced Mag1c, his vote landed on Helz, you piled on, and that Helz vs Mag1c fight is what got town Mag1c lynched. The trail of blood points at Thoth just as much. Mago died voting him, and Thoth was scum. And Noah’s own N1 plan was a redirect between you and me, with a “strong scum read on one” of us. His sus wasn’t only on me.

In what world do I kill Noah n2 over someone like you? Noah had me as solid town read. If I was scum I'd easily have been abe to manipulate him given that he was following my footsteps nearly the entire game.

Noah would have been the perfect person for me to keep around if I was scum. He was sussing Luna and was following my footsteps nearly the entire game. Keep that in mind as I always keep Noah alive.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:53 PM (post #81)

Ask yourself: Why is Noah the n2 kill and why is Mag1c the person blackmailed?

My guess with Noah is that it had to do with concerns about him interfering with night actions and being a bit of wild card. Even if he was sussing the right person (in this case, Luna), he probably wasn't going to lead a lynch all that effectively as a new player. Mag1c was in part an effort to get him lynched as an unknown role (it worked) and in part an effort to give Thoth cover the following DP (which didn't). There's some chance they were just targeted to shake lynches on Luna and Thoth, which may be true to some degree, but it's not the reason that's most prominent from where I'm sitting.