Retro Mafia - DP2

Meant to tag you on the above.

I don't make anything of Rex reading RT's typo literally, but this does actually raise a good point that I was actually thinking about even before you posted this: even if RT was a bog-standard Beloved Princess, why would that mean immediately lynching him? It doesn't make sense. It's like using the logic of "this player is either scum or town, that's two options, so we have a 50/50 shot of hitting scum if we lynch them" but completely unironically. Not to mention that if there's a doctor in the game, protecting the Princess only makes sense, and there probably is some kind of protective role in the game. So I don't think it's a given that RT dies tonight if he's town.

Im having a hard time following the logic on this? We’ve lynched Beloved Princesses before. That2 comes to mind in Russian Mafia. We were right that she wasn’t BP, but she was sadly town.

I will say, however, that the way Rex has been hard pushing RT tells me that they're most likely unpaired. I can't 100% rule out a bus but I don't think it's likely at this early point in the game. I feel like one of those two should probably be the lynch today.

After my conversations with REF in PM, I’m reasonably sure he’s Town. I’m 100% more confident in RT being scum

Why does being Tetris make you Popular?

Regardless, I'm fine testing this out, no reason not to.

VTL Pie

Tetris is one of the most popular games. PM talks about it having the most copies sold

I would be careful about this. I spotted that this was your idea sometime during the night phase. Mafia, who is already thinking about who they’re going to select, may have spotted it as well. If I can figure it out from my pov, they definitely can.

thus the counterplay would be to waive a mason and then claim they are masoned with your teammate. Only one of them needs to do this; the other can use their mason on someone else

That’s fair. Although I would argue the reason you were even thinking about it is because I discussed there being a tactic. Probably should’ve been more subtle about it.

To keep you honest: what is the justification for you role?

See my response to Casey on page 7

Sorry for not being more active, I've been busy at work today. Give me a moment to collect all my thoughts. But first,

Unvote

Since Pie got confirmed.

SR Rex, Vader, Ragnar

Why Vader and Ragnar?

If Pie is a popular wolf then this is the most scum sided game in history. I'm treating pie as almost conf town

You should have seen my Classic Movies Mafia, lol. FYPOV, assuming you're town, I can see why you'd assume Popular was more likely town based on balance analysis. Obviously I'm not convinced you're town, however, I do think that Popular tilts toward town. Behaviorally speaking, I do think Pie feels a little towny this game. It's really hard to read Pie behaviorally, since he's genuinely very good at keeping his behavior consistent from game to game, so my read on him isn't super strong, but I do get good vibes from him so far.

Casey didn't mention anything about it, but I was like first or second on the kill Icon wagon (so no point in anyone pressuring me to vote when I had already voted), but he also doesn't chat much at all in Discord from what I've seen.

This much is true. Also I'm pretty sure Ragnar and I were the first two to vote for Icon so there wasn't much reason for us to discuss the lynch anyway.

The logic in the above is that, if RT really was scum, he was planning to pass the fake claim to a teammate… not for himself.

But then again, Vader claimed 70s and I know what Whiteflame is… it’s a 90s game as he said.

So both teammate theories are a bust there. Bolsters RT towncase.

Your analysis is correct but you’re forgetting the TP though. If he’s a TP Survivor, Beloved Princess is a perfect claim for him.

survivor as RT... ok interesting

I just don’t want Pie to do it and I’ll say why after it’s done

So why not?

Oh and Whiteflame claimed his Kirby. I kinda forgot

Thinking of ways you could fake it.

In Tetris you can manipulate blocks. Vote Manipulators can make their own vote count for 2,1, or 0. 0 being the way you fake it by voting for yourself.

Current lead is 95,754

Whoever did this, you have no life. Literally it took me an hour to get like 30K.

Yeah i saw that and decided 'Nah, I'm good." Imma just hope the grassless mf is town

What’s also bothering me is the fact that RT hasn’t answered why he townread Luna that early in the game. Cause that’s the only reason he would listen to him and hammer. It seems like a convenient excuse to hammer and prevent further discussion.

The person who is setting off the most alarm bells for me currently is Casey, and I’d like to pursue them for a claim at this point. I don’t love that Casey claims I “hinted” at Luna being flipless (don’t recall saying anything of the sort), and the explanation for why there shouldn’t be a Janitor just doesn’t sit well with me given that scum could easily have faked being in a Mason chat or just refused to give up their role. Feels like fishing.

Going to respond to the second half of this first, because I vehemently disagree - scum could not have 'easily' faked being in a Mason chat with anyone other than a partner, because otherwise they would have been contradicted. The only claim regarding Mason chats right now that is even theoretically possibly a lie is RT claiming to have been in a Mason chat with Luna, and that's just because of the sudden hammer. If he had waited slightly longer to hammer, we could have all outed who we invited. And besides, I feel like you're totally missing the point I was making here, which is that a Janitor in this game would be weak because of how limited scum would be in using it - using it on anyone who is not exclusively in a Mason chat with you would be a huge risk, because they may have told their Mason buddy about their character and role (like Luna did to you). A Janitor would be so narrowly useful that it just doesn't make much sense to me to include it in a game like this.

As for you 'hinting' at Luna's role being flipless - yeah, that was just me mixing up my memory of what you said with my own ideas about the game. I did remember you saying that you knew something about his role and that you weren't going to share all the details yet (fair enough). I guess I conflated that in my mind with my own conclusions about Luna more likely being flipless than being Janitored.

Im having a hard time following the logic on this? We’ve lynched Beloved Princesses before. That2 comes to mind in Russian Mafia. We were right that she wasn’t BP, but she was sadly town.

This is true, but the case against her was based on behavior and the circumstances behind her claim. I think that RT is sus along the same lines, I just think that Rex's argument that we should lynch RT for claiming BP because she'd die the next night anyway is flawed and doesn't make much sense to me.

Tetris is one of the most popular games. PM talks about it having the most copies sold

Yeah okay, I believe that.

Why did you claim Chrono Trigger late NP1?

I claimed because he asked me to. He said he was compiling a list of flavor claims.

Who is "he?"

Town:

Pie - Obvious

Ragnar - Behaviorally I see him as town. As scum he tends to lurk a lot more.

Casey - I actually like the analysis of the Janitor. In a Mason game I don’t see how scum would risk using a Janitor on Lunatic. I don’t remember if RT confirmed he was in the PM with him DP1, but there were so many others. Giving scum a pure janitor in this set up just seems insanely weak.

Mharman - I think the analysis with the Janitor is accurate even though the assumption itself may not be accurate. I also stand by my read of him in DP1. On the reread, I don’t see anything.

REF - After talking to him in my PM, his behavior is very townie to me.

Tilt Town:

Whiteflame - I can never read him, my read will prob depend on his claims. At the same time, he’s less likely to be scum based on my theory. Ofc as a lot of people pointed out, if they figured out the idea beforehand, it’s a WIFOM argument.

Null:

Vader - There’s not much to go off with Vader. Theres no SupaSlip yet, but that’s cause he avoided a PM. And I think that’s telling tbh. It’s a way to avoid my theory and makes it less likely he slips in PM. But I don’t have evidence to gonna put him as null for now.

Scum:

Earth - I dislike the position of list idea still. It’s so hard with Earth cause he’s always just scummy so idk if he’s actually scum. Theres not much to analyze tbh except that. Theres also the POE component to this.

Theist - Everything about him just sounds scummy to me. Whether it be ending the DP early based on Lunatic (he still hasn’t explained why he townread Lunatic). The claim and role don’t make much sense together especially when Super Mario Bros is in contention. The sense of urgency isn’t there either. With the talk of a potential TP Survivor, Beloved Princess is a perfect claim.

VADER ISO

DP1 --------------------------------------------------------

#23

Hi all

At work today but boss isn’t in so maybe can get some activity in

Busy.

#26

My game is from the 70s

70s. Vader cannot make use of Lunatic's flip if he has it.

#140-141

Alright I'm around post 50ish and that 16th century game is kind of out there lol. Definitely think we should get a claim from them not totally willing to write it off just yet.

Not a huge fan of the skeptism that Mharman has going into this with suggesting 3P's and other stuff. Almost seems like he's forcing a lynch on someone and forcing pressure.

After DP ended. Likely not to be in a Discord server. Fakeable, but unlikely. That being said, he was gone for a whole 39 hours... he didn't have time to just pop in and say anything? Not even 5 minutes? Find that a bit harder to believe. That being said, I understand not wanting to play or wanting to take a bit of time off from mafia.

Not a fan of "oh we need to look into Icon he kinda sus" but also "Mharman sus for pushing the guy who is kinda sus." Scummy for playing both sides. Also wondering if the "Mharman is erroneously theorizing Icon is a TP" thing comes from an informed perspective.

DP2 -------------------------------------

#77

Also going to mechanic SOP that I did not choose anyone. I didn't realize that you had to choose before Dp1 ended. I probably would've chosen Pie if I would've looking back at DP but right now I am in a PM with Whiteflame at the moment. I've given him my thoughts on some of the players as well after skimming

This is where the whole "39 hours" thing comes into play. If he didn't feel like posting, I would've expected he at least look at the thread periodically. 48 hours to submit was in the OP for days, even before DP1 started... he posted only a few posts under it. How could he not see it?

Sure, it's possible. But if he doesn't wanna out who he picked for a mason (for example- TP and mason with the scum team), this would be a great lie to come up with.

#78-79

I have my skeptism on RT at the moment. I think that jumping the gun on a lynch within a full day is a bit opportunistic fmpov. It also doesn't help that Luna was killed as well. I don't know how that mechanically works because in all honesty I think it's inherent nature to town read your mason unless you come off as genuinely dishonest

#79

But also in a game like this, I really don't think that it would've been optimal to kill Luna. The FoS is obviously on RT for the quickhammer on Icon with a day left. You would likely want to leave Luna alive as even he would likely agree that's a bad mechanic and I don't think he would've done that even as scum. So the obvious choice as scum to frame him a bit so it's a sub optimal play. Plus is RT killing the only person that can potentially give town cred???

Idk I think that hammer is sus af but at the same time I just don't think RT would kill their mason like that

Wanna say "NAI but noteworthy" here. Brings up a fair point, albeit a little fencesitt-y.

#82

Whiteflame - slight town. I feel like his insights he has given me feel genuine and I don't think there is a reason he'd be lying about anything he has told me. He came off as genuine IMO

Ragnar - Slight town. I think his behavior is pretty remiss of his town behavior. Witty and aluding to being scum by making jokes but not actually scum

RT - I don't love RT's hammer within 24hrs and that honestly pings my FOS, but again I can't get over the NK on him though. It just doesn't make any real sense on why he would kill the only person that could validate his town cred. There are a few options but that hammer and aggressiveness stir me an FoS. I also don't love the claim

Mharman - I dislike Mharman. Whiteflame and I disagree with this but Mharman's initial reaction to saying he's town locked is not just incorrect, but really scummy and honestly nothing like I've seen him as town. Usually he's analytical and focused on catching scum but he seems off

Pie - slight town. I just think his questions asking mods live kind feels town. When scum he usually doesn't do this and just spam pings the host. I feel like it's subtle but it's enough for me to slightly town read.

Picked a side on Ragnar (after a bit of fencesitting), still fencesitting on RT. Looks like that series of posts he made was thinking aloud. I don't hate a little fencesitting if someone is hard to figure out, but I don't like when it becomes a pattern.

#109 - Not gonna paste the whole thing but retarded logic. Has a tinfoil on me. Forgetting that Icon was justifiably sussed last DP. Very scummy, feels like he's grasping at anything to push a mislynch.

#112

I’m not sure what Pie is at so I want to wait for a vote count

Little things like this bother me. You're supposed to be dedicated to town's cause, yet can't be bothered to read the thread to check how many votes are on Pie? Really?

CONCLUSION: Vader looks scummy. There's a smidge of some thought processes that could be towny, but they aren't anything crazy. The big problems are the level of dedication here, and the terrible logic on me when he literally agreed Icon was worth a sus earlier. I can look past the fencesitting if he's really having that much trouble reading people, but the rest of it is a little ridiculous. Possible 3P, odds are somewhat high.

Took me a while to stop procrastinating and finish it, but there ya go. ISOing Earth next

Towncase on Vader is that he's so busy he can't do a single thing this game, including reading people.

^^ Hard for me to buy, but if you really wanna argue it, go ahead.

SHINING ISO

DP1------------------------------------------------------------

#25

I'I'm from the 80s as well.

80s. Can make use of Lunatic's role.

#35

I would suggest something like picking the person under you on the player list and the person on the bottom picks the top player on the list.

Solves Whiteflame's problem, but ruins Pie's plan.

#53

There was no thought process. There's probably no ideal plan, but so long town doesn't derp its way to mislynches, we'll be fine methinks.

No, really??? #35 and #53 are where I need the certified Earth experts (if there are any) to help. Contributing nothing, no reads except the sus everyone had on Icon for his claim.

#129

The site is 100% buggy. I had a timestamp fuck up in my PM with Mikal.

Fake and gay. Pretty sure Mikal went with Discord for everyone. It's possible he went with DCC PMs for Shining, but I don't like how easily this could be a "hey look I used site PMs, I'm town!" type thing.

DP2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#14

Any insights? Did Lunatic reveal his character?

Wants to know if people know Lunatic's character. On the surface, reasonable ask. But why not just ask for all information? Pairs well with DP1 #25.

#62

Anyway, Whiteflame is town. I couldn't really get a good read on him on our mason DM and we haven't really been talking, but we did share our characters. I think if Whiteflame outed what Lu atics character is, then hes town. Although, he could still be scum.

First thing that looks very genuine. Don't like the last sentence, but I'm willing to shrug it off as Earth being Earth. yada yada stream of consciousness. Wish he would've given his reasoning for it, but whatever.

#178

Pie is probably town. I'll reread since DC is back.

At least contributes a read here and there.

CONCLUSION: A few things seem off, but the hard evidence is *very* lacking. Legit everything I posted has a town explanation that exists, but it's all just weird. I want to say slightly scummy. Odds of being mafioso are >rand, but not by much.

Just to get something out of you, I wanna see you make your own towncase.

RT next.

RT ISO

DP1 ------------------------------------------------------

#57

VTL Mag1c.

That post above feels extremely forced. I am also not a fan of him trying to read someone because of their enterance 

If he really missed the reaction bait I was doing, whatever. But part of me wonders if he was doing some reaction bait of his own here and if so I townread it.

#66 + 69

This post is quite telling. If ILikePie was mafia he would know the answer to this question and wouldn't need to ask it publicly. If he were mafia then he might ask this question publicly as a fake dumbtell. I'll be keeping a close eye on pie throughout the day phase. 

VTL ILikePie

Looks like fence-sitting, but I think the vote reveals this to be reaction bait.

#137-138

Unvote

while I catch up. I am masons with Lunatic. My flavor is chrono trigger

After catching up and reviewing the game state with my mason buddy I believe it’s hammer time.

VTL Icon

Pops in and ends the DP right after I asked people not to (I should've just unvoted -_-). Claims Chrono Trigger out of nowhere. I thought it was NK bait (towncase point #4- unredacted), but RT later explained this to be because someone asked him to (Lunatic? Why does Lunatic need a list of character claims?). So RT didn't have NK bait on his mind... while allegedly being beloved princess. Doesn't strike me as the proper thought process for the role.

However, it isn't the thought process for janitor either. A janitor wouldn't want to limit his own fake claim like this.

DP2 -------------------------------------------------------------

#18

Per my mason chat here is all the information I got:

-Whiteflame is in mason chat with supa + one other person

-Had a town read on Ragnar due to his misunderstanding of mason role

-When I hammered I asked him why icon was being so heavily lynched and explained that he claimed the flavor of his game was from the -16th-17th century and assumed he messed up his fake claim

-When I asked him if I should hammer he said to go ahead

Lowkey I buy that Lunatic decided he just wanted the DP. :eyeroll: Anyway, all very informative. Tells me something about Whiteflame, which I'll get into later. RT willingness to be as informative as possible is good.

#19

@Whiteflame - what can you tell us about Lunatic? You were in a PM with him. Did he give you any valuable information?

Seems genuine on the surface. Digging deeper, you'd think Lunatic would've given RT his character, considering that RT probably gave Lunatic his character before outing it publicly. Idt you just go with trading those things. But, digging even deeper: The same must be true for Whiteflame. RT might know this. Possibly a way of testing Whiteflame.

#38

For full claim:

If I'm lynched during the day phase the next day phase is skipped. If mafia kills me in the night the next day phase is skipped. Basically it is in everyone's best interest in keeping me alive.

Chrono Trigger - Beloved Princess. The justification he gave later is a bit of a stretch, but I can kind of understand it: Reading about the game, the characters do jump around and skip time a bit, and failing to stop a threat in prehistory (Lavos) can result in the destruction of a nation in the future.

The big thing here is, what else could Chrono Trigger be? As much as a stretch it is, the only other thing I can think of here is some sort of time cop/tracker/watcher like Earth had in CoD Mafia. A very stupid gambit from RT if that's the case.

Chrono Trigger is from the 90s, so it's not like he could've stolen it from Lunatic. It would have to be his real character... at which point he would need to give the claim to a teammate. However, both possible teammates aren't from the 80s either.

Now Pie has an interesting theory: RT is a survivor. He didn't kill Lunatic, and the whole claim is fake (fake character as well?). One thing I notice: Prior to claiming Chrono Trigger, RT didn't say what decade he's from- in other words, he never limited his own fake claim. Lunatic gave the idea prior to #57, so what gives? It's very scummy and the towncase requires him to have really dropped the ball there.

If he's reaction baiting, it's possible he's looking for mafia for a different reason.

I will say, however... isn't beloved princess as town kinda busted here?

8v2+1

DP1: Mislynch + NK

6v2+1

DP2: Mislynch on BP + 2NKs

3v2+1: Town just loses

And a 9v2 is just unfair to scum. Earlier I concluded it necessitated a survivor, but this goes deeper: It could also be a reason not to have a BP, whether or not survivor exists. Keep in mind if there's no protective here (in the sense that baiting the NK saves a townie), there's one less protective needed in the case of BP.

Also: Chrono Trigger has many different endings depending on player choice. A survivor left alive late game (usually a 1v1+1) is considered a kingmaker scenario, where one player's choice decides which faction wins. A survivor could side with the town, although they usually side with the mafia.

#129

I claimed because he asked me to. He said he was compiling a list of flavor claims.

RT's later explanation. Again, I was expecting something like "I was baiting an NK" here.

#130

I'm developing a hypothesis that one of the people Lunatic was in a mason chat with is mafia and that's why they killed lunatic.

A scumread on Whiteflame. Let's hear it.

#134

I really want to take some more time in reading the threads. I want to avoid the big mistake I made last day phase by hammering too soon.

This seems genuine, especially with how much he responds to while catching up.

#152

If Pie is a popular wolf then this is the most scum sided game in history. I'm treating pie as almost conf town

This post looks good.

#161 is Whiteflame's post but it looks bad for RT.

CONCLUSION: There is SO MUCH to evaluate with RT. That would make him a good information lynch, but there's a very high risk: We could lose the game on the spot if he's actually a beloved princess.

And yet, there's a LOT to the case that he's 3P it explains all the scummy behavior, and fins a way where even some of the towny behavior isn't so towny. Some of it. Most likely, he's survivor for so many different possible reasons. It is mutually exclusive with Vader being a 3P survivor, however. I do NOT think RT is mafia.

Make your town case.

whiteflame next. Think he's town but imma double check