Retro Mafia - DP4

Placing the dashboard at the top of the next page, to help people get caught up. ~22 hours remain.

going to end the Dayphase at around 9 est pm tomorrow night. Giving time for people to catch up since we needed a replacement and I’ve been on vaca

Alright, with a little over 12 hours left, I’ll be blunt: either Ragnar’s lying or Casey is. Casey claims to have been told they’d been RB’d both NP2 and NP3, which tracks with what Ragnar claims he did, i.e. the Deflector and the RB. Casey would know that regardless of their role so long as they or their partner targeted Ragnar NP2.

What doesn’t track is why Ragnar wouldn’t have then received notification that Casey had RB’d him on NP3. I asked Mikal about this, and there is no order of operations here - two RB roles would go off simultaneously and both sides would be informed. It’s possible that Casey did use their role on Ragnar both NPs, and Ragnar’s just lying about what he did. It’s possible that, knowing what Mharman and my plan was NP2, he had planned as scum to execute the NK and Casey prevented him from pulling it off. I can’t dismiss that entirely.

So both of them could be lying. The difference here is the scope of the lie. Ragnar claimed to have used his Lightning Rod on Casey and me NP1. Unless you believe he’s scum partners with me - hell, even if you do - that’s a huge shot in the dark. It means if, at minimum, Casey had had any verified actions performed on them, Ragnar would have been outed. The same is true for Casey in a sense, but the difference there is the RB. Both of Casey’s night actions were conveniently stopped because of who they used those shots on, so there’s always some room to argue that any subsequent targeting of Ragnar was only possible because someone interfered with Casey’s night actions.

So my vote is going on Casey. Unless someone has a convincing reason to prefer Ragnar here, that’s where it will likely stay.

VTL Casey

Oh, just reread Mikal’s last post and he said tomorrow night. So I guess we have an extra 24 hours to work with. Still, placing my vote just the same.

Going to do a series of isos since we're so engrossed in going over roles and night actions that I feel like behavior is falling a bit by the wayside. Starting with Shining.

DP 1:

I'I'm from the 80s as well

I would suggest something like picking the person under you on the player list and the person on the bottom picks the top player on the list.

There was no thought process. There's probably no ideal plan, but so long town doesn't derp its way to mislynches, we'll be fine methinks.

Icon's claim is sus.

I'm fine with Icon as well. Not much to discuss tbh.

Note that Earth/Shining was not actually on the Icon mislynch.

DP 2:

Any insights? Did Lunatic reveal his character?

I picked WF.

Anyway, Whiteflame is town. I couldn't really get a good read on him on our mason DM and we haven't really been talking, but we did share our characters. I think if Whiteflame outed what Lu atics character is, then hes town. Although, he could still be scum.

Pie is probably town. I'll reread since DC is back.

Are notifications bugged? Everytime I click on them its brings me to the OP.

What was everyone's reason for masoning WF? I did it because WF is a soild town player and I wanted to have a private chat with him in the case of him being town, and maybe being able to sus him out if hes scum.

I really don't understand why you want my full claim and I read your ISO on me and nothing indicates I absolutely must full claim for you

Anyway, I am going to vote for RT. VTL RT

Did you miss my vote on RT?

VTL RT

DP 3:

I'm fine with this. Pie seems to have cooked up a plan, Rex needs to claim, but Ragnar and Casey particularly need to claim.

I am Legend of Zelda. Apparently I am Zelda as a whole because my two actions are "Lens of Truth" and "Master Sword" and neither of those are in the orginal Zelda. Lens of Truth allows me to Track who someone visited the previous night and Master Sword is a PGO I can invoke and any and all who visit me get wounded and die the next night. NP2, I targeted Rex and saw that he visited Pie NP1. I have yet to use my PGO.

I didn't use it NP1 because it just seemed like a terrible idea, and using it still seems bad.

I discussed this with WF, but there were a few candidates, but I settled on Rex because I still didn't get a good feel on him and my other choices were you (not a good pick for fairly obvious reasons) and casey. Its possible WF is fooling me, but I townread him, and Mhar was a gut town read for me.

I'll admit my claim is sketchy, but chew Mikal out for bastard modding. I have no idea why he didn't just make me OoT. Mikal said I am "Zelda as a whole", but it seems like I am the only person who is like that. My PM even has the release year in it, so what the fuck Mikal.

Even if you think my tracker role is a soft CC, my PGO isn't and Mharman's role directly confirms mine.

Well, this is my real claim. Do you think I am faking my claim, and if so, is it my character or role claim, or both? Secondly WF already touched on this, but I can hardly be considered a JOAT and there are already like 4 JOATs in play. You can say I am CCing Rex, but I'm town, so maybe Mikal just wanted an extra tracker *shrug*. WF is a much worse mafia player than he is as town, and I think if WF has endured 4 DPs of scrutiny and multiple Mason PMs, hes town. I masoned he because I wanted a PM with him.

I have to sus Pie for this DP. I'm not sure what it is, but his logic just seems poor this DP. No reads, and his logic about the JOAT claims are just poor.

I'm just mystified by the strong town reads. He noncommittally supported two mislynches, only voting for one. Absolute minimal contribution to scumhunting. His 'delayed tracker' result could have been a rolecop from a scum JOAT, then either him or a scum buddy thinking that I probably investigated my PM partner DP1. The main reason Whiteflame seems to townreading him, which he did in DP2 before the delayed tracker result, is due to him mentioning the 'injury' mechanic in his role? But if there is an injury mechanic it could be a scum ability that he would have knowledge of, so it's affiliation neutral. His is the only role claim which claims to be an entire series and not just one game in the series with a specific release date. I just see a whole bunch of scummy behavior and paper-thin role justification.

Going to do Casey next, then Ragnar and Supa/ST. Hoping to home in on one lynch candidate among my scum/lean/null pool.

The main reason Whiteflame seems to townreading him, which he did in DP2 before the delayed tracker result, is due to him mentioning the 'injury' mechanic in his role? But if there is an injury mechanic it could be a scum ability that he would have knowledge of, so it's affiliation neutral. His is the only role claim which claims to be an entire series and not just one game in the series with a specific release date. I just see a whole bunch of scummy behavior and paper-thin role justification.

First off, he revealed it to me in DP2, he revealed it publicly in DP4. He revealed the delayed Tracker result after NP2, so yes, he necessarily did reveal the injury mechanic beforehand.

Second, when did I say that was the main reason I was townreading him?

I disagree that it's affiliation neutral. Scum Earth wouldn't have had reason to reveal this to me in a PM well before learning of Mharman's roles, he would have had much more reason to use such a role and keep its existence as part of his roles secret. Still, all that is some amount of WIFOM, so even if I think it would be a very strange move for scum Earth to make, I wasn't strongly townreading him based on that claim. At the time, I was townreading him based on his being the only player with an investigative role claim (this was before you had claimed). The main reason I'm still townreading him is that his results align with your stated actions, both for what he did and what you did. Maybe he did big brain this, but I don't see a world in which he doesn't kill you as scum following the revelation that you're the Tracker, and that's pretty much the only way your story of him RCing you NP2 makes sense.

I'm not saying it's impossible that he's scum, but I have several reasons to disbelieve it. As for behavior, this is far from the first time I've seen him produce some strange reads and been weird about lynch wagons as town, so that's not much of a factor in my perception of him. The only truly strange thing about him is the character claim, since you and Pie are right that his roles don't line up with the release date. I'm struggling to determine whether that's scummy or an odd choice on the part of the mods.

Casey ISO

DP 1:

First DC Mafia game, let's go! 

I'm a little surprised you thought that tbh. My game is exactly the kind of game I was expecting. I'm a video game from the 80's.

I actually like this idea. Makes it harder for scum to plan around the Mason chats if they don't know what everyone else is doing.

Can you elaborate?

VTL stands for ‘vote to lynch’. You use it to indicate who you're voting for.

Welcome to your first Mafia game btw! What decade is your game from?

I agree. That read on REF feels a little ridiculous to me. I lean scum on Mhar already.

Btw, glad you decided to join us for a game! I haven't gotten to play Mafia with you before.

Brief thoughts while I'm on my break.

It's rare for me to have an early townread on Ragney, (actually, I'm not sure I've ever had an early TR on him), but in this case I do. His confusion about the Mason abilities comes off as genuine, and I like his thought process regarding how we use our Mason invitations. 

Mharman is a scum lean for reasons I've already mentioned.

Regarding Anonymous… Idk what's going on there. Claiming something from the 16th century is baffling. I can't imagine that he'd be told to claim that by a partner, but I also can't believe it's an accurate description of his character, unless Mikal just decided to be really weird about what characters he decided to include in this game. I don't think that's the explanation, however. Which leads me to believe that he's either fakeclaiming and doing a really terrible job of it, or just really, really confused about what's going on here. Not sure which one I believe more tbh.

Everyone else so far is pretty much null.

Eh, having played as many games with Pie as I have, I expect him to ask a question like that day 1. I don't think that's AI for him in particular.

I was going to say that it's weird that Wylted hasn't said anything yet, but I guess he's not in this one.

Not really sure how chess fits with Survivor? Agreed that it makes sense with Frogger though and does seem to be his actual role.

On this much, we are agreed. Well, he has broken his silence since you made that post, but not in a way which clarifies anything. 

Also, I'm from the 80's as I already said. 

Day one impression is that she was contributing and trying to scumhunt, and wasn't on the Icon lynch. Seems fairly town at this point. Moving on to DP 2.

Casey DP2 iso:

I don't understand how this makes you a townlock?

This is true, I did choose Ragnar.

Out of curiosity, what makes you TR Whiteflame?

Wow, been a quiet game so far. I was expecting to have to a bit to catch up on, but there hasn't been much, huh?

I don't like RT's claim. Beloved Princess is inherently a scummy claim. It's like Super Saint in that deflects lynches while the variant also provides a convenient excuse for staying alive late in the game. Though I will grant that it does seem trendy on DART/DC right now. However, in terms of behavior, I'm still not crazy about RT. The sudden hammer surprised me, idk why Luna would tell him to do that, and he's dead now so we just have to take him at his word for that.

Still kinda busy, will share more thoughts in a bit.

Responding to this now - fair point, but I think it became pretty obvious pretty quickly that Anonymous was probably going to be the DP1 lynch yesterday, and I think it was probably solvable that he was either lying for some strange reason or just completely misunderstanding this game when he said he was from the 16th century. It was so far outside of what everyone else was claiming, and I don't think any game from that long ago can really be considered 'retro' per se. Like at that point, it's older than retro, it's just old.

That being said, I will say that that Survivor question was more likely to come from town you than scum you, so you're not in my scum radar anymore for the time being.

Also I stopped scumreading you after you said you were doing a reaction test with your vote on Rex. It fit with your playstyle and I was willing to believe you were genuine about that. I meant to say that DP1 but I forgot to mention it.

I don't make anything of Rex reading RT's typo literally, but this does actually raise a good point that I was actually thinking about even before you posted this: even if RT was a bog-standard Beloved Princess, why would that mean immediately lynching him? It doesn't make sense. It's like using the logic of "this player is either scum or town, that's two options, so we have a 50/50 shot of hitting scum if we lynch them" but completely unironically. Not to mention that if there's a doctor in the game, protecting the Princess only makes sense, and there probably is some kind of protective role in the game. So I don't think it's a given that RT dies tonight if he's town.

I will say, however, that the way Rex has been hard pushing RT tells me that they're most likely unpaired. I can't 100% rule out a bus but I don't think it's likely at this early point in the game. I feel like one of those two should probably be the lynch today.

You know what, I buy this. I also don't think scum would waste their Mason invite opportunity like that, and I don't think Vader would likely make this mistake as scum given that he'd have a partner or two (I'm leaning strongly towards a 8-2-1 game based on Icon's flip) to remind him and discuss Mason strategy with him.

Getting back to this one: Pie actually told me about this idea already in our chat, and I partially agree with it. I agree that scum would not be looking to waste their Mason invitations, though there is inherently a bit of WIFOM with this line of logic. Still, prima facie, if two players are in a Mason chat together, all other things being equal, I would agree that they are more likely unpaired than not. I don't think this can be used to hard solve the game but it does help.

Why does being Tetris make you Popular?

Regardless, I'm fine testing this out, no reason not to.

VTL Pie

I think you have some good thoughts here, but I'm not certain Luna was actually Janitored. I was surprised to see that Luna didn't flip today, as the whole Mason thing this game seemed like it would make a Janitor low utility for the scum team. Like, you'd possibly still be able to steal someone's role, but only if they weren't already in a chat with a townie, so there's a lot of luck involved. I think it's more likely that Luna simply had a role that didn't flip for some reason. WF sort of already hinted at that.

Sorry for not being more active, I've been busy at work today. Give me a moment to collect all my thoughts. But first,

Unvote

Since Pie got confirmed.

Why Vader and Ragnar?

You should have seen my Classic Movies Mafia, lol. FYPOV, assuming you're town, I can see why you'd assume Popular was more likely town based on balance analysis. Obviously I'm not convinced you're town, however, I do think that Popular tilts toward town. Behaviorally speaking, I do think Pie feels a little towny this game. It's really hard to read Pie behaviorally, since he's genuinely very good at keeping his behavior consistent from game to game, so my read on him isn't super strong, but I do get good vibes from him so far.

This much is true. Also I'm pretty sure Ragnar and I were the first two to vote for Icon so there wasn't much reason for us to discuss the lynch anyway.

Going to respond to the second half of this first, because I vehemently disagree - scum could not have 'easily' faked being in a Mason chat with anyone other than a partner, because otherwise they would have been contradicted. The only claim regarding Mason chats right now that is even theoretically possibly a lie is RT claiming to have been in a Mason chat with Luna, and that's just because of the sudden hammer. If he had waited slightly longer to hammer, we could have all outed who we invited. And besides, I feel like you're totally missing the point I was making here, which is that a Janitor in this game would be weak because of how limited scum would be in using it - using it on anyone who is not exclusively in a Mason chat with you would be a huge risk, because they may have told their Mason buddy about their character and role (like Luna did to you). A Janitor would be so narrowly useful that it just doesn't make much sense to me to include it in a game like this.

As for you 'hinting' at Luna's role being flipless - yeah, that was just me mixing up my memory of what you said with my own ideas about the game. I did remember you saying that you knew something about his role and that you weren't going to share all the details yet (fair enough). I guess I conflated that in my mind with my own conclusions about Luna more likely being flipless than being Janitored.

This is true, but the case against her was based on behavior and the circumstances behind her claim. I think that RT is sus along the same lines, I just think that Rex's argument that we should lynch RT for claiming BP because she'd die the next night anyway is flawed and doesn't make much sense to me.

Yeah okay, I believe that.

An informed perspective is what I was getting at. I think scum would have had an easier time figuring out that Icon was 3P. Obviously they would have known he was not also scum, so then it's just a matter of whether he was actually 3P or just a TI, and I think that was solvable. Doesn't mean it was obvious. Hindsight is 20/20 after all. Regardless, I wasn't pushing you with that post, I was literally townreading you. I no longer had a scumread on you by the end of DP1, and I said as much to both Pie and Ragnar in our chats.

Listen, I don't have much time on my break here. If you scumread me based on behavior, fine, but I'm not lying about being busy. I used to just have to work on one line with five presses, now I've got two with nine total presses, in addition to my other responsibilities. I've just been occupied with too many other things today.

I'm not giving my role publicly, and I have my reasons why. I have told it to Ragnar since I still TR him. I will at least give you my character: Donkey Kong. That's all I'm saying for now.

Tbh reading this just confirms the town read I had on Casey back in DP2. She was not on either mislynch wagon - I find the idea that she's scum hard to buy. Her behavior seems to me to be mostly townie scumhunting. And it's worth remembering that the DP2 lynch wagon ended with us lynching the Beloved Princess so it was a lynch that scum reallllly would have wanted to go through. Yet it's a lynch that Casey never showed any interest in supporting.

DP 2, going to break this down post by post:

I am Donkey Kong, one of the first ever video games to have a 'damsel in distress' plot. Donkey Kong kidnaps Pauline, so Mario has to rescue her. Therefore, I can 'kidnap' someone at night, blocking actions used on them or by them. Though it's only a 2x role. So basically a 2x Alien.

NP1 I waived. I had practically no reads. My only real townread was Ragnar, and he had already indicated that he had a PR of some sort in our Mason chat, so I didn't want to interfere with that, and I figured that using my role on anyone else would probably hurt the town.

NP2, my first instinct was to use my ability on Rex since I sussed him, but Pie told me he trusted Rex based on his role, and I wanted to give that a chance to play out. Ragnar suggested that I use my ability on him and he would waive. However, I said that I was going to target Pie instead. My thinking was that if he was town, he was a likely NK target since he was pretty widely townread, plus he didn't have a night action anyway, so there was no downside to targeting him. However, I ended up swapping back to Ragnar at the last minute, though without telling him. Something about him telling me to target him when he had such a useful role felt odd to me. Plus, the more I thought about it, the justification for his role felt weak to me. Pikachu has electric powers, and therefore Lightning Rod. Like, I understood it, but it felt a lot less straightforward than every other justification I had heard up to that point. So I switched to Ragnar on a hunch and ended up getting roleblocked. NP3 I targeted him again and was RB'ed a second time. Also worth noting that he suggested that I waive on NP3. So obviously, I'm very sus of Ragnar now.

The claim and night actions seem to be the crux of why people are scum reading Casey. If she was scum, the reason to make that fakeclaim would be to excuse roleblocking actions by pretending she was protecting someone. Using it on Ragnar twice makes no sense as scum if he had lied and told you that he had a fairly useless role (basically a bodyguard that also fucks up investigative roles, so less utility.) The only situation in which it makes sense is if you're trying to kill a protected player, and Ragnar disclosed his 'fake' target to Casey twice iirc (whiteflame) and Whiteflame didn't end up dead. If anything, this should have been a way for scum to realize that they should focus the roleblocker elsewhere, but Casey continued to roleblock/protect Ragnar.

The other thing is the this is a he-said she-said situation, and honestly I believe Casey here. The main reason is that Ragnar flat-out lied for most of this DP. Going by his last post, he's expended all of his 1x JOAT abilities so there was no reason for him to not put everything on the table at the beginning of this DP - he is essentially vanilla here. Instead he continued to lie about the lightning rod. Going from what Pie has said about Casey, she has remained consistent from the get-go. I am hearing the disembodied voice of Drafterman whispering in my ear: 'LYNCH ALL LIARS'.

So, Casey, what I really want is for you to make your own town case for me, because you've been really quiet this DP. I also want a complete list of reads/justifications for you - we have enough time since the DP has been extended now.

Going to do Supa/RT now then take a break and do Ragnar tonight.

DP 1:

Hi all

At work today but boss isn’t in so maybe can get some activity in

My game is from the 70s

Alright I'm around post 50ish and that 16th century game is kind of out there lol. Definitely think we should get a claim from them not totally willing to write it off just yet.

Not a huge fan of the skeptism that Mharman has going into this with suggesting 3P's and other stuff. Almost seems like he's forcing a lynch on someone and forcing pressure.

Seems vaguely town, not much to go on. But not on mislynch wagon, actually pushed back on it a bit.

DP 2:

Hello everyone. Catching up at the moment to the DP.

Sorry for my lack of activity, week has been a lot busier than expected and with the lack of true mobile compatibility, checking in at work is a bit more difficult

Tbh I don't think you are town locked at all and I honestly think you are more scummy at this point. I think you likely just baited a new player into claiming survivor to out himself. I also felt you were way to eager to push this DP than I've normally seen. If anything this makes you even more scummy fmpov

Also going to mechanic SOP that I did not choose anyone. I didn't realize that you had to choose before Dp1 ended. I probably would've chosen Pie if I would've looking back at DP but right now I am in a PM with Whiteflame at the moment. I've given him my thoughts on some of the players as well after skimming

I have my skeptism on RT at the moment. I think that jumping the gun on a lynch within a full day is a bit opportunistic fmpov. It also doesn't help that Luna was killed as well. I don't know how that mechanically works because in all honesty I think it's inherent nature to town read your mason unless you come off as genuinely dishonest

But also in a game like this, I really don't think that it would've been optimal to kill Luna. The FoS is obviously on RT for the quickhammer on Icon with a day left. You would likely want to leave Luna alive as even he would likely agree that's a bad mechanic and I don't think he would've done that even as scum. So the obvious choice as scum to frame him a bit so it's a sub optimal play. Plus is RT killing the only person that can potentially give town cred???

Idk I think that hammer is sus af but at the same time I just don't think RT would kill their mason like that

I do not love this claim at all

I'm usually really good at spotting Barney as scum but for some reason my radar is a bit off. I have some FoS because I feel like a decent amount of posts have been a bit fluffy but I also know he sometimes tends to makes jokes about himself being scum when he's town a lot of the time. It's kind of a weird pattern. He usually tends to hide back and make fluff minimal reads as scum.

Right now my reads are as follows

Whiteflame - slight town. I feel like his insights he has given me feel genuine and I don't think there is a reason he'd be lying about anything he has told me. He came off as genuine IMO

Ragnar - Slight town. I think his behavior is pretty remiss of his town behavior. Witty and aluding to being scum by making jokes but not actually scum

RT - I don't love RT's hammer within 24hrs and that honestly pings my FOS, but again I can't get over the NK on him though. It just doesn't make any real sense on why he would kill the only person that could validate his town cred. There are a few options but that hammer and aggressiveness stir me an FoS. I also don't love the claim

Mharman - I dislike Mharman. Whiteflame and I disagree with this but Mharman's initial reaction to saying he's town locked is not just incorrect, but really scummy and honestly nothing like I've seen him as town. Usually he's analytical and focused on catching scum but he seems off

Pie - slight town. I just think his questions asking mods live kind feels town. When scum he usually doesn't do this and just spam pings the host. I feel like it's subtle but it's enough for me to slightly town read.

Everyone else is null at this point

It's also a case of I really don't have that much substance either. Feel like I'm nitpicking behaviors but with DP2 and really no deviations, I am bit reclusive to really hard town read someone

you were never town locked to start and you justifying yourself that you are town locked is inherently scummy considering the flip

you clearly baited a new person that didn’t know what they were doing. You were the first to suggest that there was some type of 3p in the game to cause him to fake out

theres 2 reasons

this is a new player that probably had no idea what a survivor is on a site that just started mafia. I don’t think you were banking on that. I think you tried to pressure him so much that he made a mistake and hence your 3P take

this is an ineffective strategy. It was only ever done once by WaterPhoenix and hasn’t reoccurred with new players. That is honestly has such little logic besides you as scum putting pressure on a new player to force them to make a mistake, which is even more scummier

again, but when you suggest something that he may not be fully aware of as a first timer, you don’t think he will be slightly lost or confused? You jumped to a conclusion on him way before he even outted. That’s not scum hunting that’s targeting a new player, inherently scummy

i can’t quote you for some reason about the mechanic but in the ideal world then yes, you are right about the survivor but at the same time then you were not the one that then strongly pushed for his lynch. You pretty much backed off his lynch and not to mention, he was probably the target with or without your vote. This is just a way for you to generate town cred

That doesn’t lock you as town though. There’s nothing locking about that since there are so many possibilities. Town lock would be a cop getting a guilty and the turn is guilty. This is not a town lock. You baited a new player that didn’t know what he was doing to draw a mislynch

I’m not sure what Pie is at so I want to wait for a vote count

I think Pie is at 2 at the moment…

So VTL Pie to claim test

Anyways back to work

So with Pie being a popular I honestly have him in a strong town read. I already had a town read on him to start and I feel like this made it more likely. Also I know Airmax is a huge Tetris head and since Airmax is a lead develop I am almost certain there is something there about Airmax's favorite game. So I honestly buy that he is likely town at this point

Only reason I am not pushing hard on Mharman is because of conversations with WF

This is literally the second time he wants to direct a scumread on someone to imply 3P. This hard third party push and the lack of cohesive thought process with incorrect town confirmation is so scummy that if it wasn't for whiteflame and I's conversations I would find it extremely hard to not want to push for him to be executed

Definetly WIFOM but I'm also going on information that I know too. But with town cred as well I just think that there is an implicit bias to trust your mason partner and I don't really feel like if Luna had some insane power he would've risked that "confirmation" Luna would've targetted him. But this is deffo WIFOM and hypotheticals

Most of my whiteflame conversations came Sunday when the DP closed. Whiteflame can confirm and I literally thought that the DP was still going on at this point and was posting so this proves quite literally nothing. I still engage in conversations with whiteflame but my obvious focus is on this thread

Around page 8-9 at the moment so no not caught up

So he is pushing me and then...wants to vote Casey??? What's going on there. If he has a behavioral scum read shouldn't he target the behavior scum? Let me keep reading though to see if there's a valid reason

I intended on full claiming to whiteflame after this NP. I have a very legitamate reason for doing so and whiteflame can confirm this

Rereading Casey's ISO from Mharman

What about that post from Casey made you think it was so bad that it swapped your entire read? There are some things that are debatable but in all honestly it's not that damning

Tbh DP 2 makes me really townread Supa/RT for two reasons. The first is that he was not on the mislynch wagon and was actually the most outspoken about arguing against it. The second is that he was sussing Mharman, which I was also doing privately and in my PM with Pie, which is why I ultimately tracked him NP 3. Both strike me as Town, especially with Mharman swinging his dick around at the end of the DP demanding claims. I feel like scum Supa would be scared off a bit and would disengage but he did the opposite.

Yeah overall my feel so far is to lynch between Ragnar and Earth. The two mislynch wagons for reference:

DP 1:

David 1/6 - Skep 

Icon 6/6 - Pie, Ragnar, Casey, Mharm , Luna, david

stop posting. Icon was lynched. Result will be posted next dayphase. Get your actions in

if you aren’t in a mason pm, it is now to late

DP 2:

--> @Mikal

Unofficial Vote Count:

RationalTheist- 5/5- RF, iLikePie5, shining, ragnar, whiteflame

Casey- 1/5- Mharman

Pie - 1/5 - Supa

Rex - 1/5 - RT

Mike I double checked it and pretty sure this is the correct vote count. I'll let you make it official.

First things first, I just realized I was wrong about Casey not being on the DP1 wagon. I reread the DP and realized I had searched my iso for Icon's name but she had typed 'VTL Anonymous'. My bad. But it appears that she had voted for a claim and was one of the first people to vote, and just left her vote there up until the early hammer which people didn't really expect. So probably one of the least sus ways to be on a wagon, and the DP 2 wagon was more of a 'must-have' lynch for scum anyway. Ragnar is on both and shining is on the DP 2 wagon. I've eliminated dead players and my hard town reads by striking through the names.

I'd be happy today lynching between Ragnar and Earth so far, but that might change after I do Ragnar's iso.

Well, I can't say I agree with a lot of this analysis, since you're mainly putting Vader/David and Casey down as town on the basis of whether they were on the mislynch wagons. As someone who has specifically endeavored to stay off mislynch wagons as scum (especially when they seemed like foregone conclusions), I can say that's not a very strong reason for me to leave aside the issues with their claims, both of which have some pretty glaring issues.

Frankly, I'm just not on board for either a Ragnar or Earth lynch this DP, and much as I appreciate these posts, they don't change my mind substantially.

Apart from that, you did give some reasoning on Casey/Ragnar, so I'll respond to that:

The claim and night actions seem to be the crux of why people are scum reading Casey. If she was scum, the reason to make that fakeclaim would be to excuse roleblocking actions by pretending she was protecting someone. Using it on Ragnar twice makes no sense as scum if he had lied and told you that he had a fairly useless role (basically a bodyguard that also fucks up investigative roles, so less utility.) The only situation in which it makes sense is if you're trying to kill a protected player, and Ragnar disclosed his 'fake' target to Casey twice iirc (whiteflame) and Whiteflame didn't end up dead. If anything, this should have been a way for scum to realize that they should focus the roleblocker elsewhere, but Casey continued to roleblock/protect Ragnar.

You don't have to have an RB action to claim a role like this, though that is the more common play. If the goal was to put someone in the spotlight should an NK fail to go through, then I could absolutely see claiming this role and claiming to use it on the same target twice. Knowing that he was the Lightning Rod (at least from their perspective) ensured that he didn't have a meaningful response or way to determine that Casey targeted him, so all Casey would have to worry about was whether their visit was Tracked. Casey didn't know that I was self-protected NP2, so how do you know that she didn't try to kill me? Also, Ragnar's the one who is saying he cannot confirm that Casey RB'd him NP3. Again: could be that she didn't even target him. No one Tracked her.

The other thing is the this is a he-said she-said situation, and honestly I believe Casey here. The main reason is that Ragnar flat-out lied for most of this DP. Going by his last post, he's expended all of his 1x JOAT abilities so there was no reason for him to not put everything on the table at the beginning of this DP - he is essentially vanilla here. Instead he continued to lie about the lightning rod. Going from what Pie has said about Casey, she has remained consistent from the get-go. I am hearing the disembodied voice of Drafterman whispering in my ear: 'LYNCH ALL LIARS'.

Ragnar lied to the rest of you, yes. I received confirmation of his full role during DP2 and kept it to myself, so if you're lynching all liars, then I'm sus too since I confirmed him. And yes, there was reason for him to lie: it's useful to hide the fact that he might have the ability to use a role NP4, since it would have forced scum to consider his actions during the NP.

First off, he revealed it to me in DP2, he revealed it publicly in DP4. He revealed the delayed Tracker result after NP2, so yes, he necessarily did reveal the injury mechanic beforehand.

Second, when did I say that was the main reason I was townreading him?

This was an assumption on my part - I'd imagine that you'd received claims from both him and Mharman and independently linked them up as referencing/confirming one another. His behavioral reads to me have been super scummy and imo that always trumps role analysis.

I disagree that it's affiliation neutral. Scum Earth wouldn't have had reason to reveal this to me in a PM well before learning of Mharman's roles, he would have had much more reason to use such a role and keep its existence as part of his roles secret. Still, all that is some amount of WIFOM, so even if I think it would be a very strange move for scum Earth to make,

Injuring is a weird mechanic, I think it's kind of presupposes a way to fix the injured player, similarly to poisoning usually indicating a poison healer, like in the last game he played. So, I think it's fairly simple to realize that revealing that snippet of information might cause someone like you who has access to all the roles to put one and two together and think that it confirms him to some degree. Or he might be a scum JOAT with a rolecop and a injure-POG ability and only saw fit to lie about the rolecop to discourage investigative roles targeting him. Mharman's oneshot seems like something the mod would add to balance a scum ability like that, which might have made the game way too swingy if he timed its use correctly.

I wasn't strongly townreading him based on that claim. At the time, I was townreading him based on his being the only player with an investigative role claim (this was before you had claimed). The main reason I'm still townreading him is that his results align with your stated actions, both for what he did and what you did. Maybe he did big brain this, but I don't see a world in which he doesn't kill you as scum following the revelation that you're the Tracker, and that's pretty much the only way your story of him RCing you NP2 makes sense.

I wasn't expecting to be NK'd because I imagine that scum saw me as a great ML target due to coming out guns blazing against RT in DP2 and leading a disastrous mislynch. The only point at which I was taken off the table as a ML target was in this DP, when my tracker results lined up with other people's actions and confirmed my role. If I had chosen other targets I still could have had my role challenged and been a possible ML. Also, it's possible that scum had some insider knowledge about Mharman's night actions and saw the perfect opportunity to take him out.

I'm not saying it's impossible that he's scum, but I have several reasons to disbelieve it. As for behavior, this is far from the first time I've seen him produce some strange reads and been weird about lynch wagons as town, so that's not much of a factor in my perception of him. The only truly strange thing about him is the character claim, since you and Pie are right that his roles don't line up with the release date. I'm struggling to determine whether that's scummy or an odd choice on the part of the mods.

Mikal is a fairly experience mod. I would honestly be shocked and consider it bastard modding if he had built such a complete incongruence in theme and the workings of roles into the game. Everyone else is a specific game - Earth's claim screams that he locked himself into a soft claim via decade in DP1 but wanted to claim a role that didn't fit the actual game which he was claiming. I ran into this same problem as scum last game where Banana was locked into a consumable item claim and I couldn't find any items that fit both the theme and the role which we wanted to fakeclaim. We decided against yoloing it; it's my suspicion that Earth made the opposite decision.

My two leads are Casey and Vader/RT, but I'll give some analysis to others.

Casey: scum

First, they've been online plenty over the last day since I destroyed their case, but are doing the scum silence tactic of letting town tear itself apart, rather than risking further attention to their exposed contradictions. I'm not one to judge a little "lurking," but this is a vital time (especially before our host extended the day phase).

Let's see, they admitted to lying about who they targeted, and have been caught red handed lying about their role (a lie their silence maintains). Also worth noting that the role they claim is easily confirmable, but they have decided against doing just that.

Vader/RationalTheist: scum

If they really are scum, I feel bad for the scum team.

They claim a passive role, which they used actively. When it was Vader playing, WF, Vader, and I had considered a plan in which I'd send the RB to them to absorb; since they can only use their power passively (it's not like they could just select me and choose the power they want)... Yeah, I'm considering them scum until they give total transparency (needless to say, paraphrase instead of copy/paste from the role PM, but try to stay detailed).

Pie: town

There's some questionable points in the analysis offered, but it feels like townie errors rather than forced errors from scum trying to masquerade as town.

whiteflame: city

There have been times in the mason chat that I questioned if he could be scum, but those passed (one example was him having absorbed a JOAT, when I too am a JOAT, and which I'm used to only seeing one of in a game... Honestly, if there were any more JOATs in the game I'd wonder if the theme is just JOATs vs everyone else). He could have used the chat to destroy town; especially during the period in which the sun didn't come up. Instead he used the mason chat to coordinate, and begin drafting the outline to a Truck-Kun Isekai story.

Rex: Town

I actually sused Rex for a bit, with the whole visiting Magic the night Magic dies, and Magic visited Rex to waste his healing power... Whiteflame used his coordination to reassure me on the details here, that those were really the visits they had communicated to him. Plus, he's our one investigator; which is hard to fake even with the mason chats.

Shinning: null

My worry is I never think of them, so they slip through the cracks. That said, I trust half of their role, since otherwise what would the point have been of Magic's healing? That of course doesn't make them scum sided or town sided, especally assuming there's two scum, the ability for an extra death or two makes sense.

Ragnar:

Basically, see posts #46 and #87. But it's well summarized with this:

As a reminder, the theory that I'm scum, and my scum buddy motivated me, but I told everyone instead of just killing two people...

Well, I'll again let RDJ explain: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6WHBO_Qc-Q

Injuring is a weird mechanic, I think it's kind of presupposes a way to fix the injured player, similarly to poisoning usually indicating a poison healer, like in the last game he played. So, I think it's fairly simple to realize that revealing that snippet of information might cause someone like you who has access to all the roles to put one and two together and think that it confirms him to some degree. Or he might be a scum JOAT with a rolecop and a injure-POG ability and only saw fit to lie about the rolecop to discourage investigative roles targeting him. Mharman's oneshot seems like something the mod would add to balance a scum ability like that, which might have made the game way too swingy if he timed its use correctly.

Scum having a PGO role at all would be a first for me, so I can't say I see that as terribly likely, especially since it would make a whole lot more sense for him to invite visits without stating that he has it if he was scum. I can't imagine why scum would give away that they have a PGO, either. It would make a lot more sense for him to just have access to an injury-causing killing role, but that would also mean that he gave away that he has an injuring role by claiming a PGO he'd never use. So regardless, if Earth has an injuring role and he's scum, he's played it very poorly. Not really something I buy.

I wasn't expecting to be NK'd because I imagine that scum saw me as a great ML target due to coming out guns blazing against RT in DP2 and leading a disastrous mislynch. The only point at which I was taken off the table as a ML target was in this DP, when my tracker results lined up with other people's actions and confirmed my role. If I had chosen other targets I still could have had my role challenged and been a possible ML. Also, it's possible that scum had some insider knowledge about Mharman's night actions and saw the perfect opportunity to take him out.

So, let me get this straight: he role cops you NP2, sees that you're a Tracker, and decides not to kill you in the hopes that you, out of all 5 of the people on RT's lynch, would be the lynch this DP? You realize that that means he allowed you to go ahead with two back-to-back Tracker results that could have targeted his scum partner on his NK and he'd have no way of knowing, right? I get that you could have been the lynch, but I think it's unlikely that anyone going into this DP with the foreknowledge that you would have three Tracker results to report would think you'd be an obvious mislynch.

Mikal is a fairly experience mod. I would honestly be shocked and consider it bastard modding if he had built such a complete incongruence in theme and the workings of roles into the game. Everyone else is a specific game - Earth's claim screams that he locked himself into a soft claim via decade in DP1 but wanted to claim a role that didn't fit the actual game which he was claiming. I ran into this same problem as scum last game where Banana was locked into a consumable item claim and I couldn't find any items that fit both the theme and the role which we wanted to fakeclaim. We decided against yoloing it; it's my suspicion that Earth made the opposite decision.

I wouldn't consider this bastard modding. If he's stretching what applies to a given game by adding in a couple of roles that come from future games in the franchise, that's not terribly absurd, particularly if Mikal wanted to include this PGO mechanic to spice things up. It would hardly be a first to have a mod stretch their justifications to get the balance they want. Part of the reason I can still buy this is that my own role, Kirby's ability to copy the abilities of things he sucks up, did not exist in Kirby's Dream Land, which is my character. That didn't start until 1993 in Kirby's Adventure. I get that that was still the same decade, whereas his items came in a later decade than the one he locked himself into with his softclaim, but he's not the only one whose role is disconnected from the original game in the series.

Seriously, where is Pie? In any other game he would have detailed reads out and yet nothing.

Seriously, where is Pie? In any other game he would have detailed reads out and yet nothing.

I was busy with work. This time of the year is the worst for anyone on FP&A with a normal FY. But this is super ironic coming from you. I’ve posted my reads multiple times throughout the DPs. How many times have you done it? Zero.

So with Ragnar’s full claim on the table, there are now three claimed JOATs and a confirmed one. At least one of us has to be telling the truth, and based on everything I know about both of them, they are.

Here’s the problem I’m having. Let’s say, I believe you’re town. That means you inherited a JOAT from Lunatic. Wonderful. Then you learned Ragnar’s role. A second JOAT. How were you not immediately sus of this knowing what you. Fine, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt. Then you learned that Mharman is ALSO a JOAT. That should’ve sent sirens in your head. And yet what you’re telling is that you believed it and yall went kumbaya and planned night actions together? I’m sorry but that’s a very very tough pill for me to swallow

Ragnar had no end of opportunities to kill Mharman if he chose. He knew exactly who Mharman would use his Doc on (him), and still the NK did not go through. Mharman was clearly a priority target for the NK, so he was likely right to protect himself. And as Ragnar surmised, I used my own protective role at the same time. It’s up to you whether you buy that story, but either Ragnar and I are both town or we’re both scum and this very elaborate story of NP2 actions is just made up entirely. Your choice on that front. 

This is all WIFOM, I’m basing my reads off of cold hard facts. There are now 3 claimed JOATs. I just don’t buy that. And I don’t buy that a Town WF would townread those claims from Mharman and Ragnar.

And speaking of other JOATs, one thing I haven’t mentioned yet is that Healer role Mharman had. He chose to use it NP3 on Rex, I imagine in part because he figured he’d be the target, but also because he knew town wasn’t using a role that would inflict an injury. The only one that could have? Earth’s PGO, which injures prior to killing. Maybe scum have access to a role that does something similar, but it’s striking that they haven’t employed it yet. Mharman’s role confirms the existence of some role that injures, and Earth’s PGO is the only one on the table.

And scum Earth would know that. Master Sword as PGO makes zero sense. Something that injures? Definitely. But not PGO. And Lens of Truth makes absolutely zero sense with a Tracker. The claim is atrocious cause of the soft claim and role claim.

Here’s the problem I’m having. Let’s say, I believe you’re town. That means you inherited a JOAT from Lunatic. Wonderful. Then you learned Ragnar’s role. A second JOAT. How were you not immediately sus of this knowing what you. Fine, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt. Then you learned that Mharman is ALSO a JOAT. That should’ve sent sirens in your head. And yet what you’re telling is that you believed it and yall went kumbaya and planned night actions together? I’m sorry but that’s a very very tough pill for me to swallow

That's a very pared down version of what happened. I was sussing both of their claims for a while, particularly when I found out they were both JOATs. It did not make sense to me. But remember, I'm in PMs with both of them and Mharman used his Motivator first. He told me he did that, then I received a PM from Ragnar saying he'd been Motivated. So either they were a scum team and were gaslighting me (couldn't imagine the possibility of a scum Motivator), or at least Mharman was telling the truth. He then expanded on his claim after having effectively confirmed he was a Motivator, telling me he had a JOAT role. At that point, I was also informed about Ragnar's use of his Lightning Rod, and that he'd selected two targets. That wasn't a lot to go on, but it was a pretty ballsy claim to make that put Ragnar at huge risk if he was lying. I also couldn't really fathom a Lighting Rod scum. Then Ragnar told me about his JOAT role, and I got back to thinking that they might both be simultaneously manipulating me. I could see a world in which that would happen, even if it wasn't the most straightforward explanation for what they'd told me so far.

At that point, we were heading into NP2 and facing down two NPs. So I made a call. That wasn't "kumbaya," that was us taking a desperation tactic to prevent at least one of the NPs from resulting in an NK, and at the time, I was sussing Vader and Earth more than either of them, so I bought into it. When the first NP ended with no NK, yeah, that pretty much proved to me that everyone had taken the appropriate measures to prevent it, especially after Mharman became the NK in NP3.

If your follow up to all this is "and you believed they were both JOATs?" the answer is I had no choice but to do it. Either they were both JOATs or the tactic would have gone sideways and I would have called them both out for it in this DP. I made the decision that made the most sense to me at the time based on the confirmation of Mharman's role and the low likelihood that Ragnar was lying. Does that mean there are at least three JOATs in the game? From where I'm sitting at this point, yes. Is that baffling? Hell yes, but I'm also in a unique position to see that it's pretty damn likely.

Ragnar had no end of opportunities to kill Mharman if he chose. He knew exactly who Mharman would use his Doc on (him), and still the NK did not go through. Mharman was clearly a priority target for the NK, so he was likely right to protect himself. And as Ragnar surmised, I used my own protective role at the same time. It’s up to you whether you buy that story, but either Ragnar and I are both town or we’re both scum and this very elaborate story of NP2 actions is just made up entirely. Your choice on that front. 

This is all WIFOM, I’m basing my reads off of cold hard facts. There are now 3 claimed JOATs. I just don’t buy that. And I don’t buy that a Town WF would townread those claims from Mharman and Ragnar.

I completely disagree that this is just basic WIFOM, particularly if you truly believe that there is a town aligned TP and two scum. Under that math, one more NK would have won the game for scum by effectively making it 3-3, so yes, it does matter that someone who was very familiar with where the protection was being placed wouldn't then take advantage of the opportunity to kill another player. If your point is that you don't know if this three-player tactic actually happened, then fair enough, you sus the two of us and that's all there is to it. You either buy what I'm telling you or you don't. I can't prove it to you at this point.

And scum Earth would know that. Master Sword as PGO makes zero sense. Something that injures? Definitely. But not PGO. And Lens of Truth makes absolutely zero sense with a Tracker. The claim is atrocious cause of the soft claim and role claim.

Well, I'm not here to convince you that the claim makes the most sense, only that I have a very hard time seeing why scum Earth would make it, as I've pointed out already. I don't see it as likely all all that a scum Earth claims that they had an injuring role before Mharman flips to reveal his Healer. I can verify that the information he got from Tracking Rex was accurate before it was confirmed by Rex, so if he's scum, he either got extremely lucky knowing who Rex visited or he and his scum partner worked it out somehow. And if he is the Role Cop, as Rex keeps saying he likely is, then he and his partner made the active decision to allow Rex to get another Tracker result for reasons I can't fathom.

I'm not saying Earth is confirmed town, but I'm just not convinced that the story that gets him there is as solid as you both seem to believe it is.

yall went kumbaya and planned night actions together? I’m sorry but that’s a very very tough pill for me to swallow

The planning of night actions is what made me reveal I to WF that I was more than just a lightening rod, since it would have been detrimental to town for anyone to act based on it. You can confirm with Vader/RT that coordination began to be executed with them as well (even if it was aborted in favor of the plan to deflect a doctor back on himself... which again, is the one night we avoided anyone dying).

Regarding NP2, there are three explanations that have been offered for why no one died.

1. Casey RBed/protected Pie. This painted a target on Pie for me, since it was equally likely Casey lucked out and prevented Pie from performing the NK as it was for him to be the target of it... Except Casey has since changed their mind on what the did that night, they really RBed me, but had it deflect back upon themselves and fail. So invalid.
2. Whiteflame used a protection ability on themselves, which they gained from Lunatic the previous night.
3. Magic and I teamed up to deflect a confirmed doctor ability back on himself.

2 and 3 are not mutually exclusive (both could have been executed, with it unknown until the end game which intercepted the kill). But if whiteflame was scum, why not simply kill someone else that night? We're talking about during the two night phases in a row, as scum he could have done amazing damage while half of the communication was going through him.

I was busy with work. This time of the year is the worst for anyone on FP&A with a normal FY. But this is super ironic coming from you. I’ve posted my reads multiple times throughout the DPs. How many times have you done it? Zero.

I haven't seen anything fleshed out like you usually post by this time. But, sure. Point out my town meta. Secondly, I can only claim what Mikal had gave me. His explanation in his flavor was trash and I don't understand why I am not Ocarina of Time. But I am town. So bitch to Mikal and not to me in endgame. At the very least, can you admit I am not faking my roles? We can argue about how much sense Lens of Truth/Master Sword is (it doesn't really), but Mhar's flip proves there should be a role that injures and its mine. You really have no case against me that isn't stupid. Am I faking my role? No, because Mhar has proved the PGO half, and would I fake claim Zelda? I would say no, not without risk. Its nonsensical that you would think I would as scum, fakeclaim and cc right after the only investigative outted his role. Remember, you are sussing my claim. Question, you lynch me, and when I flip town, who is scum?

You've had a good amount of time to come clean on what yours and Vader's deal really is...

Since you/Vader claim that you used your Absorber role on Pie, who is confirmed to be popular, it's a pretty easy one for us to test...

VTL Vader/RationalTheist

Yeah I can confirm. Vader lied and it really messed my entire game plan up. Anyway I'm really a cop

VTL Whiteflame

Whiteflame is guilty!!!

I can also confirm earth is Town.

Full flavor: Chase H.Q. In the game you're a police officer chasing down bad guys hence I"m the cop

Damn, Chase H.Q.? That's quite the pull! A bit out there, but I like the cut of your jib.

Needless to say, bullshit, but fun bullshit. Points for effort.

VTL RT

Cool story bro.

Why lie about the decade? And why would you not start whatever day after you investigated a scum with that declaration?

Much like I don't believe your claim of absorbing the popular role from Pie, I don't believe you're a cop. Especially not a cop who can't specify what day he investigated anyone, nor explain why they skipped some nights at random... Nothing adds up, other than the fact that nothing from you adds up.

Apologies you got such a shit hand from Vader to try to make a play out of, but this is a poor one.

"Alright folks, cards on the table. I’m not Space Invaders I am Chase H.Q. — yeah, the cop car game.

I’m literally flavor-aligned with law enforcement… and yet here I am, apparently the villain.

Ever think maybe this game is upside down? Maybe I’m too towncore and that’s why I’m going down?"

"Vader originally claimed Space Invaders like it was a free arcade pick. I show up and suddenly I’m in a police chase, except I’m the one getting chased.

Who’s driving this narrative — and why are they flooring it into Debate Craft City?"

Anyway, you got me. I'm Chase H.Q.

My ability is: "Pursue suspicious wagons at high speed."

Guess I failed. Turns out I was the one speeding all along. GG, officers.

What does everyone think? Seems pretty cut and dried that he's scum, but I'd understand if you trust him because of the mustache of that guy on the arcade cabinet. It is manly, I'll give it that.

Cool story bro.

I know. Don't blame me. Blame vader!

Why lie about the decade? And why would you not start whatever day after you investigated a scum with that declaration?

I had to take what Vader already claimed and run with it somehow!

Much like I don't believe your claim of absorbing the popular role from Pie, I don't believe you're a cop. Especially not a cop who can't specify what day he investigated anyone, nor explain why they skipped some nights at random... Nothing adds up, other than the fact that nothing from you adds up.

NP1 - Earth town

NP2 - Whiteflame scum

NP3 - Pie town!

Apologies you got such a shit hand from Vader to try to make a play out of, but this is a poor one.

Yeah at least I'll try and have a little fun with the time I have left.

I'm sorry you don't believe I"m the cop