Ranger’s Apprentice Mafia DP1

Magic I'm leaning a bit scum on because I feel like he would at least respond to that with his level of experience.

#117 "Mikal's case isn't worth responding to... I guess I'll find out if Rex has anything worth defending later"

I'm not gonna respond to a nonexistent case, not beyond what I said here.

Whiteflame - Male

Casey

Lunatic

Mikal - Evanlyn Wheeler - Compulsive Hider

RationalTheist - Tug - Asceticiser

REF - Indeterminate ("unknown" or "both")

Thoth - Male

Magicman - Male

Wryly - Male

Oh, and Luna confirmed that he's one of a few characters all of whom are male (should've put that in the above list, but I've corrected it here), so I think that more than suffices for him. Right now,

Whiteflame - Male

Casey

Lunatic - Male (one of three listed characters, see post #138)

Mikal - Evanlyn Wheeler - Compulsive Hider

RationalTheist - Tug - Asceticiser

REF - Indeterminate ("unknown" or "both")

Thoth - Male

Magicman - Male

Wryly - Male

(Post #57) I had random.org choose an integer between 1 and 8, and it gave me 7, which is, coincidentally, my player number. The probability of choosing any integer from 1 to 8 is 1/8, not significant at p = 0.05.

Speaking of probabilities, y'all could call me a dumbass for blithely picking a number without considering that it might help scum, and, worse yet, leaving it to random.org. I disagree. With 9 players and almost certainly 2 scum, the probability of that ability being town was 3/4, assuming I had no reason to believe that town or scum was more likely to have it, which I did not.

I've never heard of a mechanic that interacts with random number choices. I figure that I have the least experience with this site's meta of anyone in this game, certainly near the bottom, but the befuddled reactions to it tell me that nobody else here has heard of one either.

Fair enough.

(Post #68) Eh. The likelihood he forgot he could make this play is high enough that I wouldn't scumread Mikal for it even if I discounted his incentive to SOP-claim because claiming Compulsive Hider later could look bad.

(Post #68) Serious question: what kinds of behavior would you do if you were town and wanted to bait the NK? You could fake-claim a role that scum would want gone, but that would make you the prime lynch target if town catches your lie.

(Post #70) The character and justification are plausible enough that it's not worth questioning until we get information that could confirm or deny it.

Try to soft that you know something others don't, or that you have a way of finding out. I don't think it's a hard play to find, especially for someone of Mikal's caliber.

The other half of this is the fact if he dies hiding behind someone, town loses a whole DP. Loss in two misylnches, rather than three.

(Post #71) I never said that mafia are antagonists. I suggested it based on both claims being protagonists, and even that is inherently questionable since scum would presumably claim protagonists if they had no existing claims to judge by, although I doubt that is what happened here.

Potato potato.

I can't imagine scummates drawing attention to themselves in a pair like that.

Fair.

I'm solidly townreading RT now because a Bodyguard-But-Wait-There's-More sounds powerful to me and, the more I think about it, the more I can buy that Tug's ability is inapplicable to killing actions because Pie sacrificed a little faithfulness to lore and to common sense for a lot of game balance.

I'm inclined to agree with this only because I think RT's claim is a retarded instaclaim if he's scum.

(Post #75... and #76) I disagree, especially in light of Post #87. Thank you, Casey!

I agree with Post #87. I don't think that post counters what I said in 75/76. If we do have antagonists for one scum, then it's a near guarantee the theme split is just protagonists vs. antagonists, which would make my read of Mikal incorrect.

I did a little bit of research, and I'm not seeing theme splits of one protagonist and antagonist together that are realistic. If this were Star Wars Mafia, I could easily see Luke Skywalker and Darth Vader together... but Ranger's Apprentice doesn't have the plot of Star Wars.

(Post #94) Hider and Asceticiser can interact in interesting ways, but many other pairs of roles can too, so I do think pointing them out as complementary is odd, albeit not worth a scumread.

Yeah I think whoever believes that has no idea what they're talking about.

(Post #94) CC = Counter-Claim? Either way, why would one be a pseudo-CC of the other?

I don't think they are.

(Post #111) With scum being allowed two questions about which characters are in the game, it might be less bold than it seems, although I still trust Mikal because Evanlyn is much more likely in the game than not.

Fair point about the questions; it would warrant aggressive usage of the questions, though. Not implausible, but I think it's more likely he's straight claiming and the split is Horace+Evanlyn/Cassanda, or maybe his character and Will. Alyss and Madelyn also work.

I don't know what you're getting at by "indicates the perspective of uninformed town", since the only information whiteflame had here was which numbers other people publicly posted, unless you're suggesting that scum could have discussed their choices in scum chat and then somehow scumslipped it. In any case, scum generally want to indicate the perspective of uninformed town, so no town points there.

Point taken, but I think it comes across as pretty honest when he came up with some original theory. It's better than "idk so I'll just let you cook."

I'm uncomfortable about Magic because of that request for number-picking. Not that I've forgotten how wrong I was last game when I accused whiteflame and RT of making up the Caroler, but I have a sinking feeling that he did this to activate some ability and then present it as a town move. That 3/4 probability I mentioned earlier plummets when I consider that I don't see why a townie would lie about this, but an evil might. Also, and I admit that I was also wrong last game when I said this about whiteflame, Magic's sheer amount of helpfulness and attempting to spark activity makes me suspicious that he's going out of his way to seem town. I also agree with Rex (Post #110) that my scumdar is lighting up in Wryly's direction, but that's pure gut feeling.

And this is just effort = scum.

tag

Why Casey?

So we're just missing Casey's softclaim. I'll post a set of reads tonight, though for now, I'm still leaning town on both Mikal and RT. It's not impossible that either of them are just covering for other roles (or in the case of the latter, just claiming their actual role as scum), but it's not what I think is most likely at this stage. Nothing about their behavior so far has really moved the needle, though Mikal's lack of activity means there's just not a lot to read at all.

Harder to read anyone else. Magic's gambit with the number selection was odd, but I can at least see the logic there, even if it didn't pan out as he'd hoped. It comes off as trying to gin up activity and get a little bit of behavioral info, but it could just as easily be a pretty random way to draw attention. If I had to read it, I'd say I'm very slight town on the effort.

Thoth's analysis has been good this game, just can't say that it's pushing me either way as I read back through it, at least beyond a basic gutread. I haven't seen him as scum, so I don't have an indicator of any differences in his scum play, but this all looks pretty akin to last game.

Casey's null to me. I usually have a hard time reading Casey this early and this is no different. Their participation has been in and out, and it's especially hard to read the only person who really hasn't posted all day and left us with no information about their character. When Casey is around, they're reading and participating, but nothing that really pulls me one way or the other.

I've got a slight townread on Luna, if only because I don't think he gives away that he's part of that set of three characters mentioned by Wryly as scum. I think he'd be more coy about it, especially since Morgarath has already been sussed a bit. It's not a lot to go on, since the aim could always be to suggest he's one of them and then develop fake claims for at least two of them given that he's essentially being given character options.

The lack of shit to go off of with REF really hurts my read on him. At minimum, he's null, but I don't love that he started with a reaction test saying he was scumreading Magic and Wryly, then come around with a set of reads that still places one of them as scum. I'm just not sure what to make of his lack of effort this game, but what little effort he is putting in rubs me the wrong way. Slight scum.

I'm slight town on Wryly. In particular, her digging into Luna's likely character claim doesn't come off as something scum would mention publicly. This is the kind of thing Luna and I would talk about extensively in scum chat to nail down who everyone was and try to figure out their roles, it's just a little strange to put that out there as town.

Well, contrary to that first line, I ended up just doing all my reads. They're not extensive, but there's just not a lot to go off of for a good number of you. I also recognize that picking two of the least active players as null (Casey) and slight scum (REF) respectively is the easy out, but that's made them outliers that I can't ignore.

The lack of shit to go off of with REF really hurts my read on him. At minimum, he's null, but I don't love that he started with a reaction test saying he was scumreading Magic and Wryly, then come around with a set of reads that still places one of them as scum.

?? Is there some bizarre rule where you can only townread someone based on their reaction to a reaction test? Wouldn't that make reaction tests completely useless?

I found it odd that Magic is dissecting everything in this game in minute detail and is trying to start discussions with random number tests but didn't speculate at all when I hard scum-read him out of the blue. Isn't responding to that a better opportunity to start engagement/activity ex nihilo than wondering why someone picked a random number?

Hey all, sorry for not being more active. Truth be told, if this site had a larger player base, I probably wouldn't have signed up for this one. I'm working overtime every day this week, and this weekend I'm going on a road trip (going to Cleveland to see Nine Inch Nails live!) So I'm pretty busy, but I'll admit I could be at least a little more active than I have been. Give me a moment to get caught up.

Need more soft claims. Perhaps we could say if our character is a protagonist or antagonist?

?? Is there some bizarre rule where you can only townread someone based on their reaction to a reaction test? Wouldn't that make reaction tests completely useless?

I said I found it odd that you included the reaction test (which proceeded to get no reaction), then turned around and said that one of your scumreads was real. It's odd to put the test out there, never draw attention to it again, and then just claim a set of reads that includes one of the people on your reaction test as an actual scumread. I find all that pretty puzzling.

I found it odd that Magic is dissecting everything in this game in minute detail and is trying to start discussions with random number tests but didn't speculate at all when I hard scum-read him out of the blue. Isn't responding to that a better opportunity to start engagement/activity ex nihilo than wondering why someone picked a random number?

Considering the collective lack of attention on your reaction test, it's hard to read whether he just missed it or didn't take it seriously. If it's the latter, the lack of follow-up definitely didn't help since it was just a statement out of the blue and you were gone for a long stretch afterward. Just a weird way to run a reaction test and while it is odd that he didn't address it, it's difficult to read given the circumstances.

You hard scum read me too. You said you would elaborate today. I was waiting on said elaboration. Maybe Magic was as well. Until one has an argument to counter there didn't seem to be much point.

I found it odd that Magic is dissecting everything in this game in minute detail and is trying to start discussions with random number tests but didn't speculate at all when I hard scum-read him out of the blue. Isn't responding to that a better opportunity to start engagement/activity ex nihilo than wondering why someone picked a random number?

You said you had elsewhere to be, and that you had some reads you'd explain later. Were you expecting me to go on some deep dive there? It's NAI, and I specifically said I wasn't going to engage unless you had a real point on me. Again, Post 117.

CC = Counter-Claim? Either way, why would one be a pseudo-CC of the other?

Because trying to directly target a Hider will cause the intended night action to fail. Or at least, that's how I implemented it in my last game (before Deltarune). I guess Hider is a role with many common variations now that I think about it.

I think you have the right version here. The only real question a mod has to answer is if hider can be roleblocked/redirected, which isn't relevant here.

VTL Casey

Is this just for activity? Because if so, fair.

Also, fwiw, my character is actually female.

If we do have antagonists for one scum, then it's a near guarantee the theme split is just protagonists vs. antagonists

I disagree, Pie's theme splits tend to be very non-obvious.

Mharman: If we do have antagonists for one scum, then it's a near guarantee the theme split is just protagonists vs. antagonists

Casey: I disagree, Pie's theme splits tend to be very non-obvious.

If you can come up with a theory that pairs a particular antagonist and protagonist together, I'm all ears. Until then, I think what I've said here is correct.

Does anyone know how to double quote stuff? As in having multiple layers of quotes in a post.

Doesn't seem to be implemented yet.

Need more soft claims. Perhaps we could say if our character is a protagonist or antagonist?

I actually don't think softclaims are the way to go here, especially this late in the DP. I will say this: it would be helpful to me, personally, if everyone claimed whether or not they are from Araluen, and if so, what Fief they are from. But obviously, that would put the town in danger of narrowing things down too much and benefitting scum, so I don't actually suggest we do that. But there is a particular reason I bring this up. (It'll make sense later.)

Imma just vote

So it's just SOP to vote based on almost nothing in DP1?

I'm gonna be honest, I'm really tired after a long day at work and am struggling to think coherently, but here's a few of my thoughts. Magic feels town to me. I wasn't sure at first, but his analysis tonight feels genuine to me. I can't put my finger on it, it just feels a lot more like his town play than his scum play.

I have no idea how to read Thoth. I've only seen him in one game before and I was the mod, so I can't say for sure how I would have read him had I been town. I respect his effort, at least.

Luna tilts town because of the whole LotR thing. Fakeable, but feels genuine. Also tilt town on Wryly for the interaction about his character. Feels like it represents an actual town thought process.

Still lean town on Mikal and RT for the instaclaims. Null on everyone I haven't already mentioned.

So it's just SOP to vote based on almost nothing in DP1?

I wouldn't say 'almost nothing'. Sometimes DP1 can have some really substantive discussion. That's just not how it's happened this time around.

Imma just vote Mikal here.

VTL Mikal

The justification for his claim is good, I'll grant that.

However, I don't think it makes sense from a balance standpoint and I don't think his behavior matches his claimed role:

1. Hider in a 9-player setup is crazy. If the hider's target gets hit, the town loses a whole DP, meaning they lose in two mislynches, not three.
2. If I were him, I'd be baiting the NK by softing something strong.
3. SoP doesn't really help here. It doesn't change the fact that if scum kills the person he targeted, he's dead.
4. SoP actually kinda hurts, because now the scum team will be trying to predict who he wants to hide under.

sent the post early

vote count + time check?

Still trolling the wiki to find a character whose gender could be "unknown" or "both." The "both" is what's throwing me. Starting to wonder if this was just a way to give a non-answer while sending someone on a wild goose chase.