Barry Mafia - DP3

I'm going to go case by case with each point here for each of Rex and Pie and probably make my decision, if I am wrong, I am wrong. I am starting with Pie and then diving into Rex

I'll start with the end of DP1.#211. Pie 211 initially jumps to Ceru and says "he would rather not vote for Kohai" and even claims he always sees Kohai as suspicious. Not even 15 posts later, Pie goes directly to starting the Kohai train without any rhyme or reason. In fact, the only person was Luna, and his vote was useless and filler. Pie sees that the opportunity could be taken and leads the charge.

The damning thing with Rex is now that he sort of buddies off Pie to get the easy mislynch despite being AWOL for 3/4 of the DP as well. We know that Shining's vote was town. Pie was very vocal about not wanting to lynch, but I think he sees the opportunity to get a mislynch with Luna's vote and sees if he can take advantage by getting 2 town on it because they want to force a lynch.

The second thing is claims.

Rex's claim is arguably the most interesting. Because taking out Luna would take away essentially all of our theme analysis for this show, so he can claim a character like NoHo Hank and get away with it, despite the character going against my character, which is a town character. I also find it weird that Wryly did not mention anything of being in a chat during Dp2. This definetly does not confirm them, but at least we know they had that role.

Pie's role is even more damning because this claim comes IMMEDIATELY after the Tracker is dead. We already know Shining was a JK, which acts as protective / RB from what I know.

I just really am at a rock and a hardplace

I'll start with the end of DP1.#211. Pie 211 initially jumps to Ceru and says "he would rather not vote for Kohai" and even claims he always sees Kohai as suspicious. Not even 15 posts later, Pie goes directly to starting the Kohai train without any rhyme or reason. In fact, the only person was Luna, and his vote was useless and filler. Pie sees that the opportunity could be taken and leads the charge.

I’ve explained this. In a likely 7-2 game, we need to lynch period. We cannot afford to waste a lynch. And it wasn’t just Luna on it. Ceru was on the wagon too. That was the whole point of switching to get a lynch off. And it shouldn’t surprise you that I would be willing to lynch someone who I scumread.

The damning thing with Rex is now that he sort of buddies off Pie to get the easy mislynch despite being AWOL for 3/4 of the DP as well.

And he’s crying wolf now. He happily came out of the woodworks to vote for Kohai. Zero read on him whatsoever. He blames me for the Kohai lynch. I at least had a behavioral reason.

And now he has an issue on the lynch on Shining, which you started, and we all gave reasoning for. He had ample opportunities to stop both lynches if he wanted. He’s been quiet DP1 and DP2, and comes guns ablazing only when it’s LYLO.

We know that Shining's vote was town. Pie was very vocal about not wanting to lynch, but I think he sees the opportunity to get a mislynch with Luna's vote and sees if he can take advantage by getting 2 town on it because they want to force a lynch. 

Ceru was on Kohai too.

The second thing is claims.

Rex's claim is arguably the most interesting. Because taking out Luna would take away essentially all of our theme analysis for this show, so he can claim a character like NoHo Hank and get away with it, despite the character going against my character, which is a town character. I also find it weird that Wryly did not mention anything of being in a chat during Dp2. This definetly does not confirm them, but at least we know they had that role.

Role confirmation =/= affiliation confirmation. With hindsight at 20/20 Kohai would’ve been the lynch even if he lived. Dreamer is not confirmable by any means. As for character, don’t forget that scum had 2 opportunities to ask about characters/roles

Pie's role is even more damning because this claim comes IMMEDIATELY after the Tracker is dead. We already know Shining was a JK, which acts as protective / RB from what I know. 

When did you expect me to claim? I claimed as soon as I could. Hider is not a direct CC of JK. It’s a semi protective.

I just really am at a rock and a hardplace

REF’s only argument is that Pie cause both mislynches. He was a willing participant of the first one without any sort of read. Just a last minute vote. And he did nothing to stop the Shining lynch. He was inactive for at least the last 24 hours of that DP. Not even one post saying this wagon is stupid. He just lets it happen and then now is like “y’all are all retards.”

Alright. I have read both cases up to this point and to be quite honest, it is still a 50/50 choice for me up to this point. I can see either side being scum. Both defenses have been solid to this point. If I am wrong, well I guess my streak of guessing scum correct comes to an end, but I just think that Wryly had some suspicions of Pie in DP2 a lot more and once Rex reminded of the message, they backed off of this. I think looking at Wryly's behavior, they were one of the main aggressors of Pie so far. I also think Pie's argument on Ceru and others are much weaker than I think what Rex has pointed out so far. Pie's damning vote is concering and I understand that he denies it a lot and says we need to get a lynch, but there was no real context and he hated voting Kohai, but had no trouble doing so.

I also just think his logic is wrong about Ceru and can be applied to him. He literally could have asked the same thing about Hider as well in this game and finding that out assumed a Tracker was in. He wanted to push Ceru so hard to use him as a filler in order to get him to the MYLO, but with the Tracker being targetted and the quick claim, he shifts his focus and goes OMGUS because Rex targetted him, setting up a 1v1 situation.

At the end of the day, I just don't think I fully trust Pie to this point. I think he is constantly scum reading, then pivoting on a bandwagon the last minute of the game. It just doesn't feel genuine. He hard pushed Ceru then pivoted to Kohai, and then did the same thing to Shining as well. I also do tend to think that Rex has a strategy of hard town reading someone as his scum mate, but I don't see that here. Also, Rex softed this in DP2 in this. I don't think he takes a risk like that unless scum are given a role like that, and looking at balance, I think his makes a bit more sense

VTL PIE

If we lose the game, I will take some blame for being the L-1, but I think Wryly's interactions with Pie and I think Rex's hard push to defend make me just think this is lazy town. I also do know he hard pushed Kohai early as well. I thought about this for the whole day today.

Now let's see if there is a quick vote to end the game from scum. If it doesn't happen relatively soon, I feel decently confident

I think my biggest oversight if I am wrong would be Thoth and not reading him properly,

I just can't see a world where, as scum, you take a huge gambit and claim an SOP role so early on to immiedately draw attention onto yourself

Votes:

Pie (2/3): RexFavilla, Vader

RexFavilla (1/3): Pie

Just under 12 hours left in the DP.

Alright. I have read both cases up to this point and to be quite honest, it is still a 50/50 choice for me up to this point. I can see either side being scum. Both defenses have been solid to this point. If I am wrong, well I guess my streak of guessing scum correct comes to an end, but I just think that Wryly had some suspicions of Pie in DP2 a lot more and once Rex reminded of the message, they backed off of this.

So you’re going to go with the gaslighting aspect as well? Wryly only suspected me because of a misunderstanding. Go read her posts. At this point, if you’re town, you’re just ignoring full blown events of what happened in DP2

I think looking at Wryly's behavior, they were one of the main aggressors of Pie so far.

Where lmfao. This is just a pure lie. Wryly admitted she misread what I had said after I clarified.

I also think Pie's argument on Ceru and others are much weaker than I think what Rex has pointed out so far.

What are you even saying lmao? This makes zero sense.

Pie's damning vote is concering and I understand that he denies it a lot and says we need to get a lynch, but there was no real context and he hated voting Kohai, but had no trouble doing so.

And REF, without any reads whatsoever was more than okay lynching either if Kohai and Ceru and literally shows up last minute just to vote lmao. This is just laughable.

I also just think his logic is wrong about Ceru and can be applied to him. He literally could have asked the same thing about Hider as well in this game and finding that out assumed a Tracker was in.

Ask about what? This makes absolutely zero sense whatsoever.

He wanted to push Ceru so hard to use him as a filler in order to get him to the MYLO, but with the Tracker being targetted and the quick claim, he shifts his focus and goes OMGUS because Rex targetted him, setting up a 1v1 situation.

????????

At the end of the day, I just don't think I fully trust Pie to this point. I think he is constantly scum reading, then pivoting on a bandwagon the last minute of the game. It just doesn't feel genuine. He hard pushed Ceru then pivoted to Kohai, and then did the same thing to Shining as well.

I pushed Ceru as a policy lynch. And there weren’t enough votes. So I switched to Kohai who I ALSO SCUMREAD. There is zero inconsistency here. And how did I pivot from Shining lol. I just wanted him to participate and be able to read him. You were the one that started the Shining wagon.

I also do tend to think that Rex has a strategy of hard town reading someone as his scum mate, but I don't see that here. Also, Rex softed this in DP2 in this. I don't think he takes a risk like that unless scum are given a role like that, and looking at balance, I think his makes a bit more sense

VTL PIE

What balance are you talking about?

If we lose the game, I will take some blame for being the L-1, but I think Wryly's interactions with Pie and I think Rex's hard push to defend make me just think this is lazy town. I also do know he hard pushed Kohai early as well. I thought about this for the whole day today.

REF PUSHED KOHAI EARLY????!!??

REF HARD DEFENDED SHINING??!!??!!

What world are you living? He didn’t say a word about Kohai in DP1. And he was AWOL in DP2. Did not even try to stop the wagon at its high. At this point there’s just no way you’re town lmao.

This entire post is a massive lie

VTL Rex

I guess there's a world where I'm wrong, but frankly, if you don't think it's Rex at this point, you haven't been reading. He's flinging balls of shit like a chimpanzee at town's leader after having contributed nothing in days 1 or 2. If you think Rex is too cautious to kill someone whom he neighborized, I have a bridge to cautiously sell you.

The line from Rex that stands out to me, above all others, is this gem from post #60:

He's claiming that I opened a private chat with a town player, something that's completely against my risk-averse scum playstyle and which I would never do.

Completely against logic. What was the alternative? Waiving? You already had a private chat with your scummate, probably Vader. It would be completely against your risk-averse scum playstyle to neighborize anyone other than the person you thought had TMI'd a powerful investigative role. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer, as they say.

The question is, do I want to make a snap judgment, or do I want to spend hours waffling about this?

The thing is, there's definitely some case to be made about Pie. His character makes sense as an evil manipulator type. He did lead the discussions in a macro sense, though I still think his points on Shining were reasonable. He did resist claiming even when it was obvious multiple people were against him.

However. It's difficult to ignore Rex's Greatest Hits, including "I'm too cautious to use a scum Neighborize ability" and "I hard defended Shining" (with a total of 10 posts and never actually voting a more viable wagon in Pie).

My big issue is that we quite literally just proved with Shining that Town can do and say non-optimal things.

But I'm still stuck on D2 #140 (and surrounding posts). Rex is online, wants Pie dead or at least pressured, can see that the reaction test on Vader hasn't done anything, explicitly calls out that Pie is in multiple scum piles but just... Doesn't vote there?

If anything, that reads more like the "cautious scum" stereotype mentioned earlier. What's the point of saying he's in reach if you're not even going to bother throwing down the gauntlet yourself?

Interesting fact: Did you know that it's actually been years since I placed a correct LYLO vote in a long-term game?

I don't think I'm going to be able to convince myself otherwise, quite frankly, so let's run it and I suppose we'll see if that streak continues. Hopefully not. You can feel free to crucify me in endgame if it does.

VTL Rex

My gut tells me I am wrong for some reason. Oh well. Due to happen at some point

Jesus Christ this is why I hate being town.

Votes:

Pie (2/3): RexFavilla, Vader

RexFavilla (2/3): Pie, Cerulean

Just over 2 hours left in the DP.

Thoth voted Rex in #128, which I assume means we've lost.

Damn, missed that. This is why coffee is needed. Just let me double check.

Final Vote Count:

RexFavilla (3/3): Pie, Thoth, Cerulean

Pie (2/3): RexFavilla, Vader

RexFavilla was lynched! He was... innocent!

Yep, that's the game. I'll work on the endgame and post it later today.

I WAS FUCKING RIGHT

Discussion can continue in here for the time being, I'll leave it open.

Sorry man… I knew that the last second Hider was scummy as fuck. This game also just played out too well for it to be a game you're scum

I’m assuming it was Pie / Thoth

I’m assuming it was Pie / Thoth

You would be correct.

Blegh. I had the Rex Vader world set up so perfectly in my head that I didn't consider the Pie Thoth world enough. Great.

I want to blame it on the fact that I've been wanting to see a scum Neighborizer for ages but I think it's more I was focused too much on the micro moments and not enough on the macro "Pie was running the whole game".

Yep. I feel like if I put a stronger case on Pie maybe I would’ve gotten the lynch off but it was so 50/50

Why did you think Vader was scum? I thought he was pretty clearly town this whole game.

I also just think that Pie literally brought the point up that last Whiteflame game in a 9 person that there was also 1 vanilla in the game so it aligns perfectly. I just don’t get the scum read besides vanilla is a bad claim

it was so 50/50

It really shouldn't have been for you. He was claiming that you were scum and you know that you aren't. That's it, case closed. At this stage this isn't omgus it's just deduction.