Solo Leveling - DP2

So spoiled by MU, just looked for the cotevount button.

Vote Count 

Alyssa 7/9 - wylted, luna, shining, alyssa, kohai, Vader, banana

Awesome 1/9 - helz

So something I brought up in my mason Pm is the idea of pushing a mass claim in dp3.

We already have a decent head start after Thoth, if Alyssa is scum it s a very good start. At this point to me the risk/benefit of this leans towards benefit. As of right now we have no reason to assume mafia can kill more than once per night phase, so at best they can take out one power role that night. If there is a town vig it will help them know who not to kill going forward. And lastly it can help us narrow down third party. To be clear I don’t care about hunting third party too much if it detracts from hunting scum but my guild doesn’t feel the same way understandably.

Especially after the third party apparently chose not to win with town. So without behavioral analysis to link them to Thoth or Alyssa (they can literally just play how they would as town and we wouldn’t know) the best way to nail third party would be to use mech analysis. Getting claims can help us narrow down which claims are less likely to exist versus which claims are mostly likely to be in the game.

One of my guild mates is strongly against a mass claim and I get there reasons for it. But I figured this would be worthwhile to discuss with the rest of town. And gather some opinions on.

its 2 early for a mass claim, but im not opposed to claiming if u think it would help next dp

If Alyssa is popular, how did the vote reset then? It had to have been activated somehow right…

idt thats the actual role she claimed just what we have been callin it. i dont think it changes much tho with the other factors regarding alyssa

ATTENTION:

I was poisoned last night. I will die at the end of NP2.

Any healers?

R u sure its smart for the healer to say?

Okay, you guys are scumreading the self-vote hard and I'm kind of lost. Is it a thing that town never self-votes but scum do?

at this point the fact that she disapeared and never came back is kind of telling

Based on #269 and #270, I feel like there’s one scum in Kohai/Banana

why?

p#340

this post is also kinda bad lmao

im bad at this game and even i understand the purpose of his question. why do u think this post is bad?

ill check back in later gotta go

Actually, I'm going to ask Mikal if such a role would deactivate at MYLO/LYLO.

Just asked him about Alyssa's role and he said yes, it would.

Good morning. After sleeping on things, I'm still good on an Alyssa lynch. I need to finish reading the last of this DP and think about the poisoner a bit.

#344 Wryly, could you point out where that was? Thank you.

#354 Helz, I agree with a lot of what you are looking at here. I do question if Mikal would make the poisoning aspect of a TP poisoner a "factional" kill so that being in a guild doesn't screw them. If it does have to be waived for the guild to recruit then it makes sense for a poisoner to decline a guild invite, don't you think?

I'll look back at Magic's reads once I finish catching up.

#356 Wylted, I probably would, but I wonder at this point if I should just play as vanilla so that you and Lunatic can have your wincon fun and Mikal doesn't have to feel like his wincon thing was ignored.

#360 Yeah, the nature of the role is silly, especially if it disables at Mylo/Lylo as Ref's recent post says. If anything, popular is something that makes sense for the character. On the other hand, the reset makes sense for the ant king.

#379 It's been a while, but not horrible. Keep in mind that mafia received fake claims. That in itself makes character claims from the show inherently scummy, but it's too soon to tell what the ratio of player characters vs main characters should be.

Cool, all caught up. I still can't get around Alyssa waiving. I still think the airmax/awesome slot is mafia. I think Helz is TP. Last mafia is probably between shining and vader.

Magic, D1 551

more coming. I slightly scumread Helz and Pie, feel conflicted on Alyssa and Kohai. null on everyone else- although Casey's posted more and I need to re-evaluate her

Also worth noting that in D1 167 Magic subtly made it known that they were actively aware TP could be lurking while it wasn't actively being talked about in the game. Good reason for TP to target them.

Magic D1 787

Helz, I agree Mestari is town but his case for it was bad, felt forced. It's weird to me that he wouldn't consider Mestari joking, and instead echoes Kohai's misinterpretation. He's also claimed having a role which I think is mad if he actually has one. Wa also quick to give his character. The lack of concern in both cases is scummy to me. Had some 3p theory which has merit but combined with said lack of concern makes me wonder about projecting 3p. Could be 3p blending in on scumhunting or scum looking for 3p, I can see either.

Still supporting my believe that 3p!Helz targets Magic. The bolded text got me thinking, it would indeed be mad for 3p to claim a pr independent of recruitment because it makes them a NK target and if they die they lose. Then I remember that I believe the 3p is the snake boss, Blue Venom-Fanged Kasaka, and I remembered that its scales were nearly impenetrable and I now believe the poisoner is bulletproof.

Dropping this here.

There was very slight suspicion towards Shining at the end, and a decent amount at Pie and Kohai throughout, but most in-depth commentary was on Helz.

Wryly

Now let me hear a "fair enough", bitch.

Fair enough, bitch. 😘

Interesting question.

While poison makes sense to be the kill function of ants which appears to be our Mafia faction it could also be 3p. Im not sure if being in a with a guild master role blocking would prevent actions but that presents an interesting function.

Hypothetically if it does guild leaders could grab up large portions of the player base and just lock them down leaving a small PoE to hunt through. If the gamestate ever allowed it could open a mech way to sort pools of players. There could be potential to use guilds as mass roleblock tools though.

I'm honestly confused as to how people don't read the mechanics of the game. The idea that Alyssa being and to use powers without being recruited is a scum slip would feel super scum motivated as a push if it weren't for the fact that it's two confirmed townie pushing it. @Lunatic, @wylted, do better.

What do you mean "do better"? It at bare minimum is a slip. You can't even dispute that. You could say that it was a town slip, but not even alyssa made that argument for herself. If she doesn't require a recruitment mechanic why was recruitment even mentioned in her role pm? She didn't even try saying that part was a mess up or anything just instantly jumped to us not being grounded in reality and saying that if we weren't town confirmed she would be pushing us lol.

Don’t end the DP yet guys. I have a few thoughts I want to give today in case they’re my last

Won’t be back until 5 or 6

That's exactly what I mean. She never said recruitment was mentioned in her role pm. That's really the last I have to say on it at the moment. We both think Alyssa is scum, independent of how either one of us values the new D2 analysis.

I'm more interested in hearing your thoughts on my position WRT airmax/awesome, Helz, and shining/vader

That's exactly what I mean. She never said recruitment was mentioned in her role pm.

Why would she mention it at all is my point?

We both think Alyssa is scum, independent of how either one of us values the new D2 analysis.

There's much more that goes into the scum read on her, from dp1 and 2, I don't remember everything I discuss in the mason pm and here though, so theres a chance I voiced more of my scum read on her in the masons. It wasn't purely based on the slip regardless.

I'm more interested in hearing your thoughts on my position WRT airmax/awesome, Helz, and shining/vader

So for the airmax/awesome thing it seems your point seems to stem from some mod OGI and factoring it into a reason for why alyssa is demoralized? It's possible. I don't know if it's the most solid analysis ever to indicate they are scum but it's not like bad either. Alyssa has plenty to be demoralized about after thoth tied them together dp1 though, and you can tell she certainly entered the day phase thinking she was cooked based on her entry and her early claim before even feeling out the day phase. Airmax being scum could have something to do with that but its a shot in the dark. Either way that slot hasn't really given me a lot of reason to town read it yet, so I don't entirely disagree.

As far as Helz goes, you say he is present without being meaningful. I am not so sure I see that personally. I do find myself skimming past a lot of his writing because I feel he has a tendency to overthink things a lot and has some paranoias in general that I just don't share, but he has made a few points that make me think he is there. I think he was one of the early adopters of the Alyssa scum read for entirely independent reasons of "the fear kill" thing too, so if she flips scum that will also look good for him. I think at best we can probably think he is third party based on the things he has said and done, but I am just not sure mafia skips on the mason invite even for town cred. This slot at minimum feels like they are posting every stream of thought that enters their head, which is something I would expect town to do more than mafia. Especially after thoth's blunder dp1. His posts aren't coming off as planned and calculated, it sounds like he is being wary of major lynch trains, and even seemed to doubt the thoth lynch when there was massive support for it despite coming around to it at the end. I just think this guy bleeds town.

I see you have concluded that helz is likely TP. That part I can kind of see. TP basically gets a free pass to act as they would as town, and it would kind of explain ignoring the invite. I am just having a hard time feeling like I should care. I kind of hate TP's because hunting them means you have kind of stop worrying about scum, which is ultimately the point of the game. I asked my masons what their thoughts on this were, and they were pretty explicitly "anti-third party" in this situation because mikals posts heavily indicates they have no interest in siding with or winning with the town. So if its popular opinion that we should prioritize lynching TP, I can get behind it. I would probably like a bit more evidence on helz either behaviorally or mechanically to jump to that conclusion but he has given plenty of signs of being TP, primarily ignoring a guild invite, so I see where you and others have been coming from in that assumption.

Shining, I keep seeing you put him in your POE but I did a cntrl+F to find your reasoning and wasn't finding much. I am assuming its just based on inactivity/lack of contribution, which isn't out of character for shining as either affiliation. He's a lazy player who tends to put low effort into his posts. Usually his contributions amount to being contrarian to whatever he thinks town is doing that is incredibly bad, and then he dis-appears. We probably should lock him into a claim early next day phase, or put pressure on him to give us literally anything, though again knowing him, I wouldn't expect much.

On vader all I can really deduce about your scum read on him is that his opening post seemed fake, and that he could have told thoth you were a fear kill. I guess its possible, but yeah he is still in the POE so we need something more from him than what we have. I don't have a strong feeling about him either way yet. His paranoia about whiteflame is interesting, because I got the vibe that whiteflame was being set up as a mislynch by thoth at the EOD1 because he was acting like whiteflame was scummiest player on his wagon ever, accusing him of tunneling him harder than anyone else etc. That seemed weird as fuck. It seems like too obvious of a distancing play if they are actually scum together, so it seemed likely reverse psychology to set up whiteflame as a mislynch. So I told myself going into the day phase I would be a little sus of anyone pushing whiteflame. But I realize that's also a weak arugment and based on a lot of what ifs, so its not damning by any measure.

Vader and shining are the remainder of PoE, sorry I should have clarified more before waisting your time. Everyone not mention I have as town if Alyssa flips mafia.

I reckon it's more important to kill 3P than mafia if 3P has additional kills, but I still prioritize Alyssa over 3P this DP because the flip does significant work for the PoE.

Part of what goes into airmax/awesome + either Vader or shining is atmosphere. The game doesn't feel influenced by the mafia. It's akin to some solo mafia games I've played in and hosted, like Dexter and World's Fair. It also matches the vibe of early game Salem Witch Trials that had no mafia. We know there's 3 remaining mafia yet the game doesn't feel like there's any mafia beyond Alyssa to me. That tells me they are not actively driving the game.

If magic is town, there is a good basis to assume 3p is a poisoner of some sort. In which case I echo why mag1c was targeted over say someone like you me or wylted. I don't think mag1c ever hinted being a PR or something. Maybe they aren't really "against" town, so much as just wanting to feel things out and play middle of the lane and see where things go, because killing one of us three would have benefited mafia more than a poison on mag1c. It might be possible to reason with the third party and get them to out and have them work with us. As opposed to trying to do this the hard way and lynch 3p outright, when we have no idea who they are. Publicly discussing killing them also makes them more likely to scum side.

My theory has been that the snake boss is the poisoner and they are 3p because the snake has nothing to do with Jeju Island. In that scenario, there's no way the snake wins with the town.

That being said, I'm starting to entertain the idea that mafia either got a 1x poison or their factional night kill was replaced with a poison. I think thematically it's silly for the factional nk to be poison, because only a few ants have it, but that might be splitting hairs. There has to be a balance offset for both confirming two town and denying the mafia a N1 kill.

If the factional kill is poison, then a N1 kill was not denied, just delayed. But even then, telling the town that there would not be a N1 kill helps the town. What's the missing puzzle piece?

I meant in general

I think that's the more optimal way to play the role

@israeliawesome

i don't see why my character would help either? i'm not sure what you mean exactly

My theory has been that the snake boss is the poisoner and they are 3p because the snake has nothing to do with Jeju Island. In that scenario, there's no way the snake wins with the town.

The DP1 post heavily implies Jin Woo is in the game, and likely third party. It's further perpetuated in the DP2 OP "And as they gather, the silence left behind by the strongest among them grows louder. We relied on him. We trusted him. And now… he’s gone."

There's a chance mafia have a role that lets them write this, but if we are assuming that its from mikal, I'd say Jin Woo is 3p or there is 2 third parties.

p#458

it's a wolfy question

although idk if it's w/w with alyssa

possible

If the factional kill is poison, then a N1 kill was not denied, just delayed. But even then, telling the town that there would not be a N1 kill helps the town. What's the missing puzzle piece?

I've thought about this too, but I guess if there is second poison and a night kill tonight that will answer some questions, not all of them.