Solo Leveling - DP2

I might be the only one here who thinks a self vote isn't wolfy tbh

I'm not going to defend Alyssa but I'm just saying

p#393 if the being deflated part is true, you should look to the bottom of the POE, not to the inactives lmao

yeah I can’t count the amount of times I have seen town self vote on MU.

now that you are here can you claim or at least sort?

isn't it +EV to get lynched because if you get recruited, you only can win with one of the guilds

if you get lynched, you can still win with either guild

i mean i don't think claiming will help me either way, if it gets to that point

I still want you to give us something. Can you at least character claim?

don't everyone's roles only work upon recruitment? so if that is the case then she is outed

This is incorrect. From the OP:

There are two types of roles:

Solo Leveling Characters

1. Can use their abilities at any time

Players (Yourself)

1. Have abilities
2. BUT those abilities are only activated after being recruited

So if you are yourself, you can only use your roles when you're recruited. If you're a Solo Leveling character, you can use it any time. That's part of the reason Alyssa's claim looks off, since it looks like she's claiming both a role that requires recruitment to activate and one that doesn't.

isn't it +EV to get lynched because if you get recruited, you only can win with one of the guilds

if you get lynched, you can still win with either guild

Since those town players outside of either Guild also win with town, they don't need to get lynched to win with the larger Guild. Refusing an offer to be recruited is an option, too.

Slight sus on Vader's opening posts to the DP. Feels preplanned.

Alyssa, wrt #30, why does it matter if Ref knows what to do with an extra night action? Short of being a vig and double miss killing, what is the downside?

A mechanical note: The existence of Alyssa's role is logistically problematic. What if Alyssa submits her action 5 minutes before the end of the night? This necessitates extending the NP in a way that mod confirms the ability. What if somebody submits their action and then gets doubled later? To what extent will Mikal to to contact them without success prior to just posting the next DP? I don't see how this role fits into the structure of Mafia logistically without creating problems. That said, this assumes Mikal thought about those problems.

Another note is that my interpretation of my questions to Mikal indicates that he didn't think about how my role would interact with an ascetic who has an active role tied to it. Just a thought.

#33 That part.

#36 We don't play DP2 around tailors.

#38 Lowkey kinda town.

#46 I still don't get why not acting is better than doubling a role that can't benefit from it. What's there to lose? You never said your role has bullets.

#47 I like this.

#50 Let's assume Thoth was town. With 12 non-mafia players, why did you assume you, of all people, would get redirected? Moreover, why would mafia redirect to themselves?

#54 Pie is looking much better this DP.

#57 Big fan.

Alyssa, did you ask what happens if you don't act and mafia redirect you? Are you forced to act?

This redirect paranoia really isn't feeling good to me. Do you waive as an unclaimed cop or tracker NP1 because what if you get redirected to mafia?

#62 A missing element of that REF, with a strong enough role, can just choose not to waive and then it overrides the recruit. If I were to live through the night and to be recruited, with the roleblocker dead, I would not waive my night action to allow a recruit. This also means that guild leaders probably shouldn't recruit me because I don't give a fuck about the guild win con, but yeah, my plan would end the game.

#63 Heard.

#66 This doesn't address why they would redirect onto you.

#70 A low effort post. I'd expect Alyssa to be more thorough, for example clarifying that I started the wagon and TUF helped drive it from there. Kohai's original vote was baseless and without context. For all we know it could have been a distancing vote that they got married to when the wagon very shortly after became inevitable. They didn't know at the time that I would call out Thoth's slip. All that said, I give Alyssa leniency on low effort because I know she plays her D&D game every Sunday and based on the time of the post she was already late.

#71 Open yourself up to unnecessary risk, or the town? Odd word choice.

I know people sus Kohai for claiming credit for the wagon on Thoth. I know we all know they weren't responsible for it. However I do believe that they believe they were responsible for it and I believe credit matters to them on a personal level. I really like the effort in #73 and between Thoth and Alyssa, if Alyssa flips madia then I feel comfortable with Kohai not being mafia. I am also still of the believe that their pressure on me was a misunderstand and not opportunistic.

#75 I like this. Vader has had a spot on my mind as possible scum and nothing has helped remove them from the PoE. Worth noting that, if I remember correctly, Supa is also capable of telling Thoth that I am a fear kill target. On that note, I vaguely remember a game I was town and died NP1 or 2 and thought Alyssa was town because "she wouldn't kill me early". This was a projection because I don't tend to kill good players early as scum since I want a challenge and, let's face it, most players are not challenging to me as scum. In the game Alyssa was scum. So her seeing me as a fear kill target and vocalizing that in the scum chat checks out.

I'm going to call it here tonight. Obviously Wylted and TUF are town. I'm comfortable with Banana, Rex, and Wryly. I'm okay with Kohai. I like Whiteflame. I'm coming around on Pie. Alyssa and Awesome are mafia. That leaves Shining and Casey who I have no feelings about, Magic is the same. Who the fuck is David and who the fuck is skep. Helz I honestly can't find anything about them that makes me feel they are town. I don't scumread them either. I just feel like they are present without being meaningful.

If Wryly could not add 7 spam posts to every page, however, that would make me happy.

So a couple of things to unpack. This will be wordy and I am sorry that spoilers do not exist to make this less of a wall. Normally I could format better but I will try to use color codes to signal points to consider. I promise I am cutting out a substantial portion of my thoughts. These reads centered around digging through Thoth (and sadly kinda half ass by my standard)-

For Mestari on post 85 they pump the breaks on the Mestari lynch then in 111 they hit the gas and vote them putting them at L3. It is of note at the time the push was Alyssa, ILikePie, Mestari, Kohai and Wylted. I have exactly 1 town peg between those players at this time which is a good look for Mestari. There is a lot of tangential focus on their slot and a point I have never herd from anyone is the question of if Mestari was actually aligned with Thoth. Everyone is obsessed with this “How could Thoth possibly know they are a good player” situation and nobody has even breached that subject. Kinda glaring that subject was never breached.

My D1 reasoning on Mestari remains even if it edges on angleshooty things that should never have been brought into this game but I have not herd my thoughts echoed by others and my paranoia is building from the lack of a very simple conclusion being mentioned. Just pointing out a pattern here.

Thoth follows up pushing against VNTL and advocates for flavor claims then pushes for no recruitment voicing both teams winning which also means neither develops TPR’s. Then 290 they push that Mafia are likely inside at least one guild which creates distrust. My take away from this is simply that it gives me less paranoia that Thoth was framed and more that they were a legit flip.

409 Thoth voices discomfort with Kohai and that they will ISO them. Thoth never posts an ISO on Kohai. Thoth grows more flavor focused already looking at Jin Woo in 457. 550 they hard claim Sung Jin-Ah (D2 flip calls them Red Ant) 648 they poke Kohai again which is consistent (although an ISO was never voiced.) Nothing solid but slightly a good look for Kohai

605 is where they start to get into the Alyssa entanglements. Thoth leads off calling Alyssas defense “Desperate,” “Reachy,” and “A pocketing attempt.” My initial reaction here is that it leans in too hard. They are not just displacing concerns of being aligned but they are absolutely hammering distance with pretty strong rhetoric. The level of emotional reaction is quite extra. I would more of expected a “Oh, its weird they defended me like that. Wtf” level of conviction as opposed to the immediate hardcore FOS.

Thoth then follows up in 630 shading Alyssa more with another poke on 734 on the same narrative that they must be town or scum attempting to pocket. 791 they double down with a substantial defense of them not being aligned with Alyssa. There is something of note in tone here though. Things started out in 605 with hard rhetoric and developed into softer views followed by 791 where they are now either a misguided townie or pocketing. There is a notable progression as the issue keeps being discussed. 735 read wall has Alyssa as their strongest scum read but when they follow up on 1493 it’s a town lean. The progression is clear in that context. 1229 they enter the town potential and 1230 they give some “Too scummy to be scum” logic for Alyssa’s defense of them. 1233 they flatly ask Alyssa if they are Jin woo. This is more notable with 1277 where they soft knowing who Jinwoo is and 1316/1338 voing they may have an inno reasoning on Helz/Alyssa/Rex. So this tracks for Helz being town read and Rex getting a weird null read in their first read wall but why go at Alyssa so hard early in 605-791 if they had reason to believe one of the 3 is confirmed town to them mechanically? And why the evolution in the Alyssa read in opposition to the evolution of their belief that Jinwoo was town into believing they are neutral?

To unpack that Jinwoo progression they first hint in 1277 knowing who that flavor is followed by the hard claim in 1316 with the hard claim of being a backup to them and town read them at the time. They flatly push Alyssa for a claim of if hey are JinWoo earlier in 1233 and push later that they shifted their read of Alyssa thinking that player could be JinWoo at the same time as they are evolving their position of what Jinwoo is from being a confirmed town into a neutral.

So they scum read Alyssa when they thought that flavor was town and then as they evolved into thinking they were 3p they started to town read them eyh? Interesting. Also interesting their position of Helz/Rex/Alyssa remained consistent throughout reflecting a potential that this was a truly mech driven position given how illogical it is otherwise.

On 723 we have Thoth’s first readwall and on 1493 they post a second one. Worth looking at. I will cut out my thoughts of how things changed between them for now but will post them back to back for comparison-

“Townlock by guild-leader claim: Lunatic, wylted

Strong town by behavior: Helz

Good gutreads: WF, Mestari, Mag1c

Bad gutreads without concrete evidence: Pie, Casey, Wryly (I've been very wrong about scum gutreads on Wryly, though)

Lean scum: Kohai, I don't like his claim.

Somewhat harder scumlean: Alyssa

Inactive pool: Vader, Shining, Airmax, Banana

No verdict: Rex”

-------------------------

Town-confirmed: Lunatic, wylted

Solid town: Banana, Wryly

Lean town: Mestari, Alyssa, Mag1c

Null: Vader

Lean scum: Pie, Kohai (I still don't buy his claim)

Strong scum: whiteflame, Casey

Likely 3P: Helz, Rex (if not 3P, then Rex is lean town and Helz is solid town)

For Casey 746 they follow up with their read walls position voicing a bad gut read on Casey. They do maintain this line down to 1488 still focusing that view which is again mentioned right around their read wall. I have mixed feelings on this. Seems both times they are voicing limited concerns right about the time they are the most aware of the external optics. A consistent negative narrative from Thoth regardless between bussing only around when they are focused on external optics and just a benign take. Worth considering.

I figure I should break the post in half at this point. Already a kinda stupid wall.

Ugh I'm still awake.

#114 A couple. Beru was the strongest Ant and after he died he was turned into a shadow Soldier by Jinwoo. If the theme is human vs not human instead of hunters vs ants then Igris and others work as well. There's an argument that this represents an alignment shift, but if the theme is humans vs not humans then they would still be not human even as SJW's soldiers.

Yeah. I think we are dealing with 1x popular lynch proof mafia. Their claim doesn’t match up

#153 Only player characters are activated upon recruitment. That being said, lynchproof is not incredibly powerful for mafia the way popular would be.

#178 When did she say she had to be recruited for popular to work?

I'm honestly confused as to how people don't read the mechanics of the game. The idea that Alyssa being and to use powers without being recruited is a scum slip would feel super scum motivated as a push if it weren't for the fact that it's two confirmed townie pushing it. @Lunatic, @wylted, do better.

#181 Forced trains are anti town. Stretching past the point of certainty just demands town start speculating in ways that mafia can exploit. Again, this isn't scummy, it's just theory preaching suboptimal play. I think I might be ego bias against Helz with my reads, kinda like a parent would be disappointed in a child. Going into the game, with the way Helz talked about studying mafia, I expected more from that slot. It just feels like the slot puts forth a lot of effort and doesn't accomplish anything. Like, why are you trying so hard to put a square peg in a triangular hole? You are trying so hard to display higher level strategy that you go beyond being practical in an effort to self validate superiority. I don't know. Maybe I'm getting third party vibes, but not necessarily mafia. Could be town too. I guess I just wish that from all that thought came more results.

#195 Fuck me for having a life to attend to while we spam 3-500 posts a day.

#243 When did Alyssa say that she needed to be recruited to use powers?

#247 What in the stupid? It's much not likely for town!Alyssa to not claim lynchproof than mafia!Alyssa.

#248 It's actually frustrating watching how much effort you put into doing nothing.

#261 I don't like the self vote analysis. Scum should fight tooth and nail as much as town. Self voting as scum is just as game throwing as self voting as town. Also of course Alyssa knew she would be pressured. It was obvious last DP that regardless of the flip she was a target. I'm glad you are confirmed town, TUF.

#328 So this confirms that Alyssa was 1x popular lynchproof. There's a case to be made that that's quite strong as a mafia role. For example, at 2v1 Town can't lynch her. It changes the mathematics of the game. That being said, it's also a 17 person game and requires her to be one of the final 3 for it to matter.

#329 #331 This is exactly what she claimed.

#334 She explained why she voted herself, so help speed up the process of confirming that part of her role.

#342 Rip brother.

There's a snake boss that has poisonous fangs in an earlier dungeon. It has nothing to do with the ants, and thus is probably third party. The ant king can poison too, but it's powerful enough to kill instantly and it would be weird to flavor the factional nk as poison when it's a particular character in the mafia that links to poison. I also reckon that a poisoner third party confirms my theory that SJW is town. Maybe mafia has 1x poison.

I'm trying to think of wincons. Town wants to defeat the ants. Ants want to kill humans. The snake just wants to survive and not have their gate (dungeon) closed? Checks out imo.

I'm going to actually call it here because I don't want my thoughts on the implications of a poisoner to be clouded by fatigue.

Something came up I had to take care of so I gotta speedrun this bit. Everyone's favorite subject- Alyssa

What is the actual case here?

Starts out flipped scum Thoth slipping on knowing Mestari is a good player while they should not. Insinuation comes that they learned it from Alyssa and Alyssa provides a defense to Thoth. Of note is off the bat Thoth casts as much shade as possible upon Alyssa for them defending. Bussing or shading is a question there.

This carries though. Alyssa hard positions themselves scum reading Thoth from start to finish of D1 while Thoth has an evolution starting with pushing hard scum and then evolving into a town lean as they also evolve their read that Jin Woo was a town initially followed by more of a town lean when they thought Jin Woo was a neutral. Thoth also had a very weird hardline stance on this flavor and on who it could be thats so illogical it feels like they had some reason to have such conviction. That they had some level of legit mech knowledge from their scum chat or such to hold and push such a belief.

After this plays out Thoth swings and flips Mafia. Now D2:

Alyssa leads off overly defensively. They full claim. 2 new issues come up. That there is a hard slip in if they could use their ability without recruitment to a guild and if their claim of popular vs widly admired vs lynchproof is a slip. A few quick thoughts.

I dug and Alyssa never claimed they could not use functions unless recruited. This all draws back to an insinuation that the passive ability could not proc as they directly voiced the other one could. Grey area. Potential for a slip? Sure. But its not some damning thing imo. It is literally a question of if them saying a lack of need to be recruited for their active translates to an active need to be recruited for the passive.

I also dug into if Alyssa ever claimed popular. Never happened. I need dig more to see exactly where this line came from but while the other one I feel could have merit for catching scum slipping this one looks like some bullshit to me. A bunch of people arguing about what qualifies for what in semantics without regards to why it matters. I would like to hear someone explain to me logically how it matters what the words are. It feels pretty dumb and I do not understand why its been such a focus.

Past that I question why a scum would reveal a lynchproof/popular/whatever you want to call it function. I could ramble about what I would do with that as scum but it does not matter.

I think there is a few potential conclusions and I will strongly push the town to stop looking at Alyssa as some slam dunk confirmed mafia and start really hunting and questioning how valid the case is. I see 4 potentials

1- Its just gravy train and Alyssa is belly up mafia caught with their team mate bussing

2- Its kinda more fucked but still good with flipped mafia actually pushing until they realized 3p potential (more likely imo)

3- Its just town shoving town without bothering to think or verify details. The awful potential

4- Weird world the mafia have a framer and are driving some clever misslynch as we think we are up 1 mafia but could actually be close to having a situation where we are down 2-3 town adding in the poisoner

Things to consider. And btw, Poison sounds like a logical killing thing for an ant. Hmm

Having one of those nights when I'm desperately tired but can't sleep.

There is a lot of tangential focus on their slot and a point I have never herd from anyone is the question of if Mestari was actually aligned with Thoth. Everyone is obsessed with this “How could Thoth possibly know they are a good player” situation and nobody has even breached that subject. Kinda glaring that subject was never breached.

Because Mestari was himself the one who caught Thoth's scumslip there. If Mes was scum, he wouldn't have drawn attention to it. The only way I could rationalize a scum!Mestari there was if he was so sure someone else would pick up on the slip that he decided to bus Thoth immediately.

Good post otherwise. Not a stupid wall at all.

If Wryly could not add 7 spam posts to every page, however, that would make me happy.

Oi, fluffposting is a character flaw of mine like yours is being a self-aggrandizing edgelord with the compulsive need to condescend his peers.

Now let me hear a "fair enough", bitch.

Good context.

My brain is a little fried and I missed a number of points I should have covered on Alyssa

My real fear right now I will say is that the town is marching twords a numb "Screw it we caught a confirmed scum" when so many bits of just that are not considered and we are not looking at the rest of the players and setting up for a productive D3/D4 etc.

Complacency is a problem and really, I do not know for sure if we are up 1 scum or down a town and about to be down 3 town as we lethargically stumble twords the conclusion of an Alyssa flip.

Are they frustrated mafia caught for the wrong reasons and pissed? Are they just caught for the right reason and ghosting? Are they 3p Mafia lucked out on? Are they town and we have a town that is not even really looking at what the case against them is?

I may not have the time in my life to push what I want to on the subject but we should at least hold conversations on these subjects instead of just saying "Screw it, lets get their flip and lets grab claims from people"

Just my take.

I think there is a few potential conclusions and I will strongly push the town to stop looking at Alyssa as some slam dunk confirmed mafia and start really hunting and questioning how valid the case is. I see 4 potentials

1- Its just gravy train and Alyssa is belly up mafia caught with their team mate bussing

2- Its kinda more fucked but still good with flipped mafia actually pushing until they realized 3p potential (more likely imo)

3- Its just town shoving town without bothering to think or verify details. The awful potential

4- Weird world the mafia have a framer and are driving some clever misslynch as we think we are up 1 mafia but could actually be close to having a situation where we are down 2-3 town adding in the poisoner

Things to consider. And btw, Poison sounds like a logical killing thing for an ant. Hmm

I share your paranoia, but I thought Framers simply make their targets investigate as guilty. I would think only a Tailor could alter Thoth's role card flip, and I had the understanding that Tailors can only alter NK targets, not lynched townies.

Thoth himself told me this was the site meta for Tailors when Mago and I were considering a similar twilight ruse in DC Player Mafia.

I remember playing as a Tailor and I could not alter alignments.

Sounds about right.

Shoulda said tailor when I said framer. Running on empty tonight at this point. But yeah. Framer changes invest results tailor changes flips.

I played Heartbreaking Bears Mafia with WF and we tailored Rex when he was mislynched DP1. So Thoth getting Tailored isn't impossible, just unlikely. Just throwing that out there.

I played Heartbreaking Bears Mafia with WF and we tailored Rex when he was mislynched DP1. So Thoth getting Tailored isn't impossible, just unlikely. Just throwing that out there.

How tf did I forget this. That's right, you switched role cards with him.

Shit. My paranoia has been seriously ratcheted up.

I remember playing as a Tailor and I could not alter alignments.

whiteflame altered Casey's alignment when he tailored her in Alien mafia.

To expand on the airmax slot being scum. Part of it is mod psych, but I won't get into that. Part of it is Alyssa's defense of Thoth, assuming she is scum. Alyssa is too good to defend an obviously caught scummate, especially so desperately. I think scum!Alyssa only acts the way she did if she feels she has to. That indicates desperation. Going from 4 mafia to 3 DP1 is not cause for desperation. But if your team is inactive, or worse, mia? That calls for desperation and trying to save the ones who are still contributing. Savvy?

She came in hard by voting Thoth. That’s like the first thing she did after the RVS at the beginning. It makes sense to do this to create distance and just hard bus. The problem is that she was implicated as well, so she had to pseudo-defend herself as well. Behaviorally she’s scum, and mechanically she’s scum as well imo cause of the whole Motivator thing

I feel like scum!Alyssa would be more likely to not tell anyone that part of her ability, have town run her up minutes before EoD (because people always don't want to end day early), and hope there's not enough people to run her up again

Is this just exclusive to her or everyone else as well?

Who the fuck is David and who the fuck is skep. Helz I honestly can't find anything about them that makes me feel they are town. I don't scumread them either. I just feel like they are present without being meaningful.

David = Kohai and Skep = REF

There’s also the consideration of the 3 names Thoth put up yesterday: REF, Helz, Alyssa as being Jin Woo.

Its interesting because if Thoth/scum made these up, then its interesting to put REF (who had already soft claimed) and Helz (who had hard claimed) in the same list as Alyssa

It’s almost as if they were wanting us to lynch Alyssa because everyone townread REF and Helz for the most part. Another “distancing”

p#285

i clarified it in a later post

it's a bit angly but i think that's allowed on this site

anyway i don't really like this post from rexfav tbh

p#340

this post is also kinda bad lmao

There's no accounting for taste.

Okay, if Alyssa is just going to go AWOL let's just go through with the lynch.

With claims, I'm con. The calculus is altered a bit, because a bunch of people have roles they can't use until they're recruited. If you have the cop claim DP3 in a normal game, they've already gotten two investigations out. In this game, where guilds will be sacrificing night actions to recruit, and a good chunk of players cannot even use their roles until they are recruited, I would definitely do much fewer claims, especially early on. It will just let scum snipe power roles before they can get a single night action off. This is going to be a long game. We can look for claims in a few DPs, now is way, way too soon.

That’s just WIFOM. I was the popular scum in his previous game and it definitely didn’t function the way Alyssa claims it functions

Everything is wifom im just trying to consider all options. but at this point i think its likely alyssa is scum since there has been no attempt to defend herself so it doesnt matter anyway

vtl alyssa.