Solo Leveling - DP2

I guess, but you shouldn't fear a redirector anyway? I don't understand your logic.

I should, but it's a question of risk analysis. For someone who I read as null, do I risk getting redirected onto scum for an uncertain benefit? Had you claimed something like Cop, then the risk becomes worth it (assuming I buy the claim). With no information to go off of, I decided it wasn't worth the risk, which ultimately was the correct decision because (assuming Luna recruited), you couldn't use your role anyway.

Thats not what I said. I said in case they chose not to. Only they can evaluate the cost/benefits

My point is that there's absolutely no reason, from my POV, that Luna shouldn't recruit last night. From that POV, there's zero reason to target people in Luna's guild (or Wylted's for that matter, because he also should've recruited) because no one in their guilds can use their abilities. So unless you want to defend that Luna shouldn't have recruited, then saying "just target people in guilds" doesn't make sense.

Like if I am a mafia redirector and I target you, it doesn't really matter who you originally targeted?

My understanding of redirectors is if I'm not targeting or visiting anyone then I can't be redirected.

My role is also pretty specifically damning if redirected onto scum.

If scum dont know what your role is, why on earth would they redirect an unknown town role onto themselves? Worst case its a vig, best case in most setups its a cop who targeted a townie and would receive a false guilty. And why target a widely scumread player who won't be believed if the intention is to cause a false result? In a case of multiple unknown players, wouldnt they fuck with a more widely townread player? That's an extreme edge case to worry about.

 You had no one you had a strong enough townlean on to feel confident in Motivating them?

It's less of a "no strong enough town reads" and more of a "no good targets".

If scum dont know what your role is, why on earth would they redirect an unknown town role onto themselves?

Sure, I grant you that they don't know my role, but it's a calculus I have to make because I know my role. And I have to account for redirectors because I softclaimed that I can do things without being recruited, which makes me a more clear target for redirecting given that the gimmick of the game is a lot of people don't have roles until they get recruited.

It's less of a "no strong enough town reads" and more of a "no good targets".

Elaborate on this, please. What would have made a "good target"?

Elaborate on this, please. What would have made a "good target"?

In the moment? Someone in my town pile who had an ability that a) they can use and b) would benefit from being doubled. Willing to budge on the town pile if they're in my null pile and their claim is believable.

In retrospect, they also kinda can't be in a guild unless I think that Luna/Wylted aren't recruiting that night, otherwise it doesn't do anything.

In the moment? Someone in my town pile who had an ability that a) they can use and b) would benefit from being doubled. Willing to budge on the town pile if they're in my null pile and their claim is believable.

In retrospect, they also kinda can't be in a guild unless I think that Luna/Wylted aren't recruiting that night, otherwise it doesn't do anything.

I'll give you that you wouldn't have known your target's roles or whether they could even be doubled. I'll also give you that there's a decent chance no one in either Guild used a role and both went for a recruit. That being said, I don't see the harm in just targeting one of the Guild Leaders at minimum on the off chance that they use a role, so I'm wondering why you didn't do that.

Going to my D&D game now. Please don't kill me before I have a chance to check back in.

Minor fos on Kohai for the "Look at me I'm so town" behavior - "leading" the Thoth wagon doesn't really say much because he was 100% dead no matter how you slice it, so trying to claim it as town cred is kinda weird. Still in my null pile because otherwise their D1 behavior was relatively townie, but it's something to think about.

That being said, I don't see the harm in just targeting one of the Guild Leaders at minimum on the off chance that they use a role, so I'm wondering why you didn't do that.

Such a small edge case scenario that it isn't worth the risk of being redirected onto scum. Guilds were 100% recruiting last night, so why open myself up to unnecessary risk, even if that risk is small?

I would just like to note that whiteflame was unusually aggressive on Thoth and that looks nothing like his scum game. As scum he's balanced, analytical, and pretty immaculate.

Fair. I'll drop this for now but I do want to resolve whiteflame eventually and don't think he should be let off the hook.

Few things stick out to me from alyssa's ISO regarding Thoth

Alyssa · Apr 2, 5:31 AM

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If thoth is scum I am pretty sure we have one guaranteed scum between mestari and alyssa, depending on whether or not you buy a bus from mestari.

One, literally everything is in Tim's range of play.

Two, I'd never glaze him. He doesn't need any bigger of an ego.

Alyssa · Apr 2, 5:39 AM

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Your vote on thoth here is interesting. Are you thinking that mestari is bussing here?

I think literally anything is within Tim's range of play, bussing included.

Because the main logic here is that someone who knows and has played with mestari on DDO told him he was a fear kill option.

Or just knows Mestari well enough to convey this information to Thoth, but I'll wait for Thoth's explanation here. But yes, you're correct in that if Thoth flips scum then I'm implicated as a potential scum partner.

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Alyssa · Apr 2, 9:19 AM

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I'm off to bed because I have a job interview tomorrow.

Definitely town pool is me, Luna and Wylted

Small town read on Mestari

Small suspicion on Thoth

Null on everyone else.

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Alyssa · Apr 2, 12:44 PM

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Is there anything important between this Luna/Thoth dick measuring contest or can I go back to being confused by Helz's suspicion of me?

Alyssa · Apr 2, 5:26 PM

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Okay back and mostly caught up (barring my half-asleep 5am post earlier).

Even though Helz hasn't shown back up to answer my questions, other's people's interpretations of what Helz said matched my initial interpretation so I might as well address it and if Helz wants to clarify more when he shows back up that's great.

Alyssa is a higher level of my paranoia on this subject. Everyone has posted but me? Interesting that I am on their mind while that’s not the case. Im going to hold off before saying more but I will vote here and eat some popcorn watching what others see on them.

I'm assuming this comment is referencing #380 from me where I say

Given that pretty much everyone has at least poked their head in enough to skim the DP (save Helz), I think we are pretty much treating Luna and Wylted as town confirmed at this point given the lack of CC (scum would be suicidal to CC them anyway).

Ignoring the generalizing of "pretty much everyone" here, I signal out Helz because he's the one person who's largely an unknown. Whether on DDO, DART, or here, I've either played with everyone in the lobby or can go read their games on here to figure out how they play. Sure, Airmax/Whiteflame/Vader/I think Casey as well? had also not posted by the time I made this post. Couldn't care less about them to be completely frank. I want to see stuff from the one person who I have zero information on. So I called him out. It worked and created engagement.

But barring that explanation, pressuring me here is weird and it's where my confusion really comes from. In what world is anything I said AI in either direction? It's not like the stated reason for pressure had anything to do with the rest of the suspicion that was being thrown around regarding me (more on that in a sec). It's just completely out of thin air, slap a vote on it and let it ride. Which is why I wanted clarification on the vote.

Regarding the actual sus being thrown at me, there's a pretty clear person that's being left off the list of people who's familiar with Mestari on a mafia level and a personal level that matches me (which I hinted at in #386, though I didn't spell it out to not provide Thoth with a get-out-of-jail-free card in case he is scum). Mikal (i.e. the person hosting this game) is just as familiar with Mestari as I am, both on a mafia level and a personal level (arguable as to who knows Mestari better per se, but it's a hair that's not worth splitting for this context). All it'd take is one question in Thoth's role pm of "Hey who's this Mestari guy who's blowing up the discord with sex jokes" for some level of understanding to be imparted. So sure, if Thoth flips scum then I could be scum by association, but there are other explanations to this.

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Alyssa · Apr 3, 3:55 AM

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Thoth is still on my scum radar for his behavior post 'slip'. He hasn't done much to dissuade that opinion yet. Don't know enough about the claim he presented to weigh in too much on if it makes sense or not, but I'll defer to the opinion of people who've watched the show that it doesn't make sense.

Beyond that we're getting a little speculative given the narrative of the DP has been heavily focused on Thoth/Myself/Inactives. Slight scum tingles from Pie potentially trying to capitalize on an opportunistic push against me, but the rest of his behavior lines up with his typical behavior regardless of affiliation, so I'm open to this being wrong.

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Alyssa · Apr 3, 4:26 AM

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It came off more as a defense of herself than a defense of Thoth.

Why would I defend Thoth? I'm scumreading him. I just don't want to get caught in the crossfire if/when Thoth flips scum.

Alyssa · Apr 3, 6:38 PM

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I think there's merit to the idea of getting as many PRs active as possible to increase the quality/quantity of information we can get from nights. Short term we'll go into DP2 in a pretty similar position as we are in now, but the benefit will increase over time as more and more PRs get recruited. Hard to say if it maths out to a faster solve than just playing normally and voting when reasonable, and I'm also not sure it's an idea that's incompatible with just playing the game normally anyway (there's certainly enough people that voting today isn't going to significantly reduce the number of PRs in the game assuming we vote a townie).

But, again, happy to also vote today. My ideal target is Thoth. Is that agreeable for you or do you want to go with a different wagon?

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I am not a fan of alyssa''s progression on thoth. I'm also not happy with some of their claims

ugh we need a better quote function

Vader: Not a lot in this ISO. One thing that sticks out to me is he repeatedly has an FOS on Thoth but never votes Thoth, or even votes at all. SOS on Vader for those reasons

Stop spamming her pfp at me, it's casting Glamour at me

Begone, temptress!

A few wagon movements

Vote Count

Kohai 3/9 - Mag1cman, ILikePie5, wylted

Thoth 3/9 - Kohai, Mestari, Lunatic

Mag1cman 2/9 - Casey_Risk, RexFavilla

Mestari 1/9 - Alyssa

Vote Count

Kohai 3/9 - Mag1cman, ILikePie5, wylted

Thoth 3/9 - Kohai, Mestari, Lunatic 

Mag1cman 2/9 - Casey_Risk, RexFavilla

Vote Count

Thoth 5/9 - Kohai, Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex

Kohai 3/9 - Mag1cman, ILikePie5, wylted

Alyssa 1/9 - Helz

Thoth 6/9 - Kohai, Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex, Mag1c

Kohai 2/9 - ILikePie5, wylted

Alyssa 1/9 - Helz

Thoth 6/9 - Kohai, Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex, Mag1c

Kohai 19 - ILikePie5

Alyssa 1/9 - Helz

Airmax 1/9 - Wylted

Thoth 5/9 - Kohai, Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex

Kohai 19 - ILikePie5

Alyssa 1/9 - Helz

The shinning wagon movements

VOTES

Thoth 5/9 - Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex, Wylted

Shining 3/9 - Kohai, Wryly, Casey

Kohai 1/9 - ILikePie5

Vote count

Thoth 5/9 - Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex, Wylted

Kohai 1/9 - ILikePie5

Shining 4/9 - Kohai, Wryly, Casey_Risk, Helz

Vote count

Thoth 5/9 - Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex, Wylted

Shining 5/9 - Kohai, Wryly, Casey_Risk, Helz, Thoth

Kohai 1/9 - ILikePie5

Shining 6/9 - Kohai, Wryly, Casey_Risk, Helz, Thoth, Magicman

Thoth 5/9 - Mestari, Lunatic, Alyssa, Rex, Wylted

Kohai 1/9 - ILikePie5

So this is definitely some interesting movements especially with how quickly the shinning wagon grew. It also is intereesting how many folks who weren't voting most of teh day suddently voted for shinning

Wryly, Casey_Risk, Helz are interesting movements. @Wryly can you explain your vote on Shinning heere and why you waited until then to cast a vote

Vtl Alyssa to test popular

any thoughts on above

Vote Count:

Alyssa (4/9) - Kohai, Pie, Alyssa, Lunatic

Kohai (1/9) - Wylted

Wryly, Casey_Risk, Helz are interesting movements. @Wryly can you explain your vote on Shinning heere and why you waited until then to cast a vote

Shining VTL was a pressure vote because I agreed with your point that his Thoth reticence seemed odd. Didn't agree with the Mestari wagon, was baffled re: Alyssa and the Thoth lynch was gonna happen whether I voted or not, so I was content just grilling him.

So a few thoughts-

May be stuck in court tomorrow. I am on stand by just a heads up. Not very impressed with how they are notifying me of my obligations there.

For Thoth I did everything I could to put spew on their mind and keep them talking. They basically had 2 moves-

1- Shade that Alyssa, Myself, or Rex could be 3p

2- Shove WF in their last posts.

WIFOM arguments could apply there as to distancing and what their normal is. Also a question of if they were feed info on a pool of potential 3P by someone else informed in their night chat.

For Alyssa I noted early D1 they were kinda hypersensitive to pressure. Seems like more of that today. From memory I saw more defensive survival focused behavior from them yesterday than hunting and solving.

Their role claim was very interesting.

The +1 vote for elimination would be a strong passive asset for scum. Their motivation power would also be strong to the level of being OP for scum to have.

If they are scum it would make more sense balance wise for it to come with the requirement of being recruited. I do not see scum default getting to unlimited double action anyone on their team through the game.

As town it makes sense for balance. A passive utility thats of meh level quality and a decently strong ability that could equally screw the town if used poorly.

Then I have asked a number of questions to the host I am waiting for clarification on. Specifically I am chewing on Alyssa's second ability. You target someone at night and double their action letting them use it twice 'that night.' How is that even possible unless it would specifically have to be coordinated in a guild chat? I wont dive into the potentials but that certainly caught my attention and I asked a few very targeted questions on the subject.

So eh- their role claim feels possible (unlike Thoths) and I do slightly lean for balance considering it more likely as a town role than not yet I am also looking for host clarification if Alyssa simply mech slipped in their claim and the exact dynamics of their claim being possible to exist.

Other than that Kohai's immediate push on WF felt a bit opportunistic. I think some amount of attention should be given to Thoth/WF although again- I was actively making them paranoid about spew and for them to overtly distance so flagrantly moments before slipping needs some WIFOM applied.

Other than that Kohai's immediate push on WF felt a bit opportunistic. I think some amount of attention should be given to Thoth/WF although again- I was actively making them paranoid about spew and for them to overtly distance so flagrantly moments before slipping needs some WIFOM applied.

I'll point out I just played a turbo where mafia got red checked by JOAT and shaded his partner hard before he got lynched. I narrowed the final pool down to two possible candidates and ultiamtely found the last wolf because of how they tried shading their partner at EOD. It was just too obvious

Oh, it certainly happens. I certainly agree that tell exists with intention and association indicators.

I just question it as the last thing they say and how blatant it is. He flatly demanded we Turbolynch Whiteflame then said:

"Whiteflame usually posts balanced reads that look at all angles of an issue. Here he was just trying to turbolynch me and refused to listen to my responses. I don’t know if that’s typical for Casey, but for WF it’s a sign of demonic possession."

I did not have the impression WF took that position but they also spoke with a level of conviction there which did not line up well with their reasoning. Makes me more confident Thoth is not tailored (also of note I feel tailor to be less likely as some communities consider it bastard but I do not quite know the meta here)

I do not really have a conclusion but it is something I am chewing on about why you did not consider as much and immediately jump to demanding full PR claims and such. I would more have expected you to dig through WF and draw conclusions then push for the FOS before just casually pushing to out PR's.

The Whiteflame kerfuffle was pure wifom. Whiteflame, being difficult to read, is like a prism which breaks that little ray of wifom into a shifting, glittering rainbow of distracting bullshit. Best to just ignore it imo.

I did not have the impression WF took that position but they also spoke with a level of conviction there which did not line up well with their reasoning. Makes me more confident Thoth is not tailored (also of note I feel tailor to be less likely as some communities consider it bastard but I do not quite know the meta here)

I consider it bastard however death tailors have been used in games and are typically not considered bastard here. That said, I do think we should keep the possibility of death tailor in the back of our minds.

I do agree.

Largly with Thoth I do feel his claim was bullshit. Seeing guild chats + knowing flavor that could indicate P3 + having an additional ability did not seem possible. Would be an odd move to tailor them unless they were specifically looking to paint Alyssa or something which is kinda unnecessary. They already had attention and the flip looked bad for Alyssa without painting. If anything I would be more suspicious if Thoth had flipped town which would make sense for Mafia protecting a S! Alyssa team mate.

Potential of painting WF exists but it begs the question of why burn it to make a town look scum D1 when making a Mafia flip Town is a huge advantage.

That and independent of the strange bullshit mech claim by Thoth they were scummy outside of that. I do not really see them painting a mafia as a mafia unless its a very strange modification of Tailor. Then the flip itself matches the writing style of the host. Not crazy to fake but I did look at that a good bit.

While I think tailor is potentially possible add all that and the fact its considered bastard by some and I think its less likely that Thoth was Tailored and we simply killed a Mafia Roleblocker who got in over their head.

To be clear if he was actually town and mafia have a tailor then it makes sense for them to tailor Thoth as mafia to throw us off track. That said I think I’m inclined to say the flip was accurate and we hit scum. If we ever flip a death tailor then we can re eval.

I find Alyssa’s second half to be utter BS. My question is wouldn’t it make most sense for both abilities to activate upon being recruited?