Amber Mafia - DP3

A-Deirdre wrote:

A-Caine wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

Maiden, I have 1600 posts to read through before I have behavioral reads.

I think you misunderstand my concern. I understand that a jailor exists. What I am asking is if anyone has been jailed after the Mafia used their illusionist. I want to confirm that we know the jailor is not dead before we give a jailor claim a free green check.

This is actually a great point. Everyone needs to claim if they had been jailed or not.

I have not been jailed

I haven’t either. I guess there is some chance that the first NK on Julian killed the Jailor, since their jailing of Pie should have happened before the NK resolved. If that’s the case, this is going to get dicey.

This is a strong possibility. Any competent jailor should have protected you.

A-Llewella wrote:

Claiming jailed first just cuts out the potential of a Mafia being forced to claim first and getting it wrong easily solving the day mechanically. (Or they put their entire team on the line and we solve the game today with more information to play with)

Don’t think I’ve revealed anything others don’t know at this point (my post went up, so I was not RB’d), but you’re right that it’s probably best to let the Jailor reveal the pertinent info about targets should they claim.

A-Deirdre wrote:

A-Caine wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

Maiden, I have 1600 posts to read through before I have behavioral reads.

I think you misunderstand my concern. I understand that a jailor exists. What I am asking is if anyone has been jailed after the Mafia used their illusionist. I want to confirm that we know the jailor is not dead before we give a jailor claim a free green check.

This is actually a great point. Everyone needs to claim if they had been jailed or not.

I have not been jailed

I haven’t either. I guess there is some chance that the first NK on Julian killed the Jailor, since their jailing of Pie should have happened before the NK resolved. If that’s the case, this is going to get dicey.

We are really shooting ourselves in the foot as we feed scum info and ideas before they role claim.

We are really shooting ourselves in the foot as we feed scum info and ideas before they role claim.

If scum don’t know this much, I’d be shocked, but fair enough.

A-Deirdre wrote:

We are really shooting ourselves in the foot as we feed scum info and ideas before they role claim.

If scum don’t know this much, I’d be shocked, but fair enough.

Sure, but they may not have considered that they could potentially claim Jailor without a CC and then we gotta debate if they are confirmed town or if the Mafia got a lucky shot off. I will be more suspicious of a "Last claiming player" situation claiming Jailor.

(That said pretty pretty please can we not say another word about about this very specific subject until people claim. Like very litterly not even one after this post until claims happen)

Understood, leaving it here.

A-Llewella wrote:

A-Deirdre wrote:

We are really shooting ourselves in the foot as we feed scum info and ideas before they role claim.

If scum don’t know this much, I’d be shocked, but fair enough.

Sure, but they may not have considered that they could potentially claim Jailor without a CC and then we gotta debate if they are confirmed town or if the Mafia got a lucky shot off. I will be more suspicious of a "Last claiming player" situation claiming Jailor.

(That said pretty pretty please can we not say another word about about this very specific subject until people claim. Like very litterly not even one after this post until claims happen)

Agree. Perhaps claim pop corn style

DP1 561 is the first big question mark for me. Flora is town. I'm town. Martin is town. If t!Brand, how did the day end up in a 50/50 not even involving him?

DP1 637 is a very odd post to me. Random says,

I did not like brands idea of a mass claim

I disliked the wagon that formed off it even more.

In 213, 214, and 215, Random starts the Brand wagon. This is in direct response to Brand contemplating whether or not we should mass claim. I believe there's worlds where Brand is town, and worlds where Brand is scum. I think that there are more worlds where Brand is scum, but we will be exploring the implications of both worlds. I do not think there are many worlds where a townie starts a wagon and then proceeds to simultaneously (1) re-justify the wagon and (2) criticize the existence of the wagon. This reeks of a mafia slip. In the s!Brand worlds, Random wants to derail the wagon on his teammate. In the t!Brand worlds, Random knows that the wagon is a mislynch and is preemptively shading the 3 town on the wagon. At this point in my reading I'm heavy scum on Random, moderate scum on Brand.

It's worth also considering the positioning of the other 2 possible scum at this point in time, Caine and Llewella. Caine opened a wagon on Flora back in 290 saying,

Let’s get a real wagon going.

At this time there was a wagon going on Brand, at 3/7. Putting them on 4/7 would indicate real pressure, and the wagon was very much not RVS at that point. Starting a fresh wagon without reason other than,

flora and Llewella are the two I want to pressure and hear from

does not strike me as, "starting a real wagon". I could see it as attempting to distract from a s!Brand wagon, but I also see a very real world where s!Random and s!Caine had communicated in scum chat that with town driven momentum on a t!Brand wagon, it's an ideal time to start a t!counterwagon.

Llewella was second on the Brand wagon in 222. In a s!Random world, I think it's a less than ideal plan for Llewella to take the #2 slot on a town wagon started by scum. I also think that Llewella is experienced enough to not do that. This leads me to tentatively disconnect Random and Llewella as a pairing. In continuation, Llewella reiterates in 362 that Brand looks bad, then 2 minutes later starts picking a fight with Gerard who has no real pressure against him. This lack of focus reads as town to me. As scum you are making plans, conscious or unconscious. As town you are much more likely to express thoughts as stream of consciousness. Not only is it very dissonant to say one player looks really bad and immediately jump off them, but it's also not the most obvious strategic decision to pick a fight with the hyper poster in the process. Dissonance is town for me. The more I lean t!Llewella, the more I lean s!Random. Keep in mind that this analysis started questioning how a t!Brand leads to a 50/50 without him involved. We're looking at 2 confirmed townies on the wagon, myself, who I at least know is town, and potentially t!Llewella in the world that s!Random=true. That's 3 town on the wagon and 1 more positionally supporting it. At most we have 1 scum on the wagon in 637, so I'm getting heavier on s!Brand=true.

Time to continue reading...

In 698 Oberon objects to the Brand wagon. However, they strongly change their position in 712 and 717 after the sub out. At this point there are 3 town on the wagon and 1-2 more who have positionally supported the wagon. It takes 7 to lynch, and we're looking at 4-5 town already supporting the lynch. In a t!Random world, t!Brand there's actively 4 town on the wagon, 0 mafia, and 1 town (Oberon, with Llewella necessarily being scum in this world), positionally supporting the wagon. There's no way I believe that t!Brand converts to a 50/50 lynch. Keep in mind that the other part of the 50/50 wasn't Brand. You also have to keep in mind that Caine has been constantly active around this time. I think as I read on and get to how the counterwagons form it will say a lot about Caine's alignment. At this point I am growing suspicion towards s!Brand=true, which just makes me think the remaining scum at Brand and Random.

722 is another ping post for me. Remember earlier when Random simultaneously shaded Brand and also criticized the wagon? The entire time they stayed on the wagon letting it gain settle in as a legitimate EOD option? Now they are claiming,

Already was wanting to kill them and now want to kill them more tbh

If you were so confident about wanting to kill them, why shade the wagon, if not to shade the players on the wagon? Again, there are reasons for s!Random to take this line with both t!Brand and s!Brand. The t!Brand reasons remain the same as before. An added reason to strengthen their stance against s!Brand is that Fiona is MIA and therefore s!Random could feel without help trying to save s!Brand. I still don't know how I can readon Random's line this DP as town. To explain further, look at my town read on Llewella. I read dissonance and inconsistency as town. Town doesn't know things early on. It is necessary for them to be more free form and to continue turning over rocks and engage in side investigations even if they have more developed reads elsewhere. Mafia is structured. They have plans and they don't want to appear flippant. Random seems very hesitant to move their vote while swingy back and forth on how they feel about the wagon itself. It doesn't feel town to me.

On a side note 750,

If I like Brands responses, I am lynching Flora today I think. Llewella won't be as challenging of a lynch in later phases if they are scum as flora will be.

says so much about what is wrong about the approach to mafia on this site.

Okay, now we get to Martin flipping from Brand to Flora in 774, leaving the vote count at,

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (4/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Flora (p#533), A-Bleys (p#232), A-Oberon (p#729)

A-Flora (4/7): A-Caine (p#290), A-Gerard (p#649), A-Julian (p#646), A-Martin (p#774)

A-Llewella (2/7): A-Brand (p#6), A-Deirdre (p#628)

A-Bleys (1/7): A-Llewella (p#670)

Not Voting (1): A-Fiona

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 15 hours.

Their reasoning was God awful, but here we are. Depending on how the next few posts develop, I may be willing to disconnect Brand and Random. The explanation of how t!Brand survives has very clearly become, players on this site are more willing to lynch people they fear than people who they scumread. This is with the fact in mind that Fiona is inactive, so there are at most 2 scum on the wagons. None of this changes my reads on Random, but if he doesn't do anything to edge the Flora wagon past the Brand wagon, I will find it hard to read Brand and Random as SvS. I also have a very hard time seeing s!Llewella sitting to the side while looking at a t!Brand and Flora wagon.

867 More reason to disconnect Random and Brand. With that said, why the commitment to staying on Brand if you think in 873,

Initial paring in my head is brand flora or brand Martin

Sure, %s!Brand > %s!Flora, but if you think Flora is an option as well, why would you be so obstinate to switch?

It's worth nothing that Fiona is entirely absent from Random's gaze in 874. Sure, they are inactive, but that would make them a null, not an exclusion to the list.

978 into 980 from Fiona 2 minutes later is not a good look for Brand, There was about 75 minutes left in the DP. This reeks of mafia telling Fiona to get on the Flora wagon as soon as they reappered in the game.

1013 from Brand is icky. Sheeping Deidre on what is not even a wagon at that point at the end of the DP after spending the entire day not being on a real wagon is gross behavior.

Caine in 1141 abandoning a wagon they were on all game to 50/50 what ended up being TvT is the dumbest shit ever. I can't tell if this is to appease Flora in the case that they live, or just horrible play.

Tell me right now why the scum team isn't Caine and Random. I understand now how Brand survived. Town on this site treats mafia as a fear factor game and not a scum hunting game. I could still see s!Brand, but the end of DP1 was a masterclass in how to do things for the wrong reasons, which genuinely mucks up what was a really productive DP.

I'm starting DP2 now, but I'll be leaving to get a haircut in a bit so I figured I'd post my DP1 analysis.

Hey, I'm here. Sorry I've been inactive the past couple days. It's been a rough week for me, and tomorrow isn't looking good, either. Catching up in the meantime, will be more active later tonight

A-Caine wrote:

One thing giving me pause is this post

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/5k/amber-mafia---dp2?page=18&comment_number=535

does wolf Fiona really put both partners in this list? The only explanation for such retarded play is if scum were confident they can win. I do fear we MIs cleared someone so I want to go over this game with a fine tooth comb

It's not impossible that Fiona put both teammates in the list. They were basically just trolling by EoD. That being said, Deirdre is the only player alive that I just can't see being scum at all (for obvious reasons). But I do instinctively agree that his list includes the scummiest three, which does make me wonder

A-Brand wrote:

A-Caine wrote:

One thing giving me pause is this post

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/5k/amber-mafia---dp2?page=18&comment_number=535

does wolf Fiona really put both partners in this list? The only explanation for such retarded play is if scum were confident they can win. I do fear we MIs cleared someone so I want to go over this game with a fine tooth comb

It's not impossible that Fiona put both teammates in the list. They were basically just trolling by EoD. That being said, Deirdre is the only player alive that I just can't see being scum at all (for obvious reasons). But I do instinctively agree that his list includes the scummiest three, which does make me wonder

Yeah. Doing some math here

6 alive

4 town v 2 scum

The problem mafia has is there is 1 confirmed town and if a jailor claims that’s two confirmed town. Mafia has only 3 possible MLs and if the jailor claims and is corroborated then 2 conf town leaving only 2 MLs available.

i don’t think w!Fiona would draw so much attention to their partners.

3- They absolutely avoided the shit out of touching the Fiona situation. I get having focus elsewhere but never touching the major day subject while hard focusing on such a random tangent? This is the most concerning thing to me. Looks like a wolf who is frozen and does not know how to deal with a team mate going down so they say nothing then just slap on a vote when its clear they are cooked for the post flip optics.

I also thought this was odd tbh.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Not Voting (6): A-Bleys, A-Brand, A-Caine, A-Deirdre, A-Llewella, A-Random

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day phase ends in 2 days, 4 hours.

Just got back from the barber. I will likely be heading out soon to watch the game, but I'm going to get started on DP2.

I want to have thoughts on Flora's will, but given the nature of the player I feel that it could be filled with deliberate misinformation about at least 1 player that will be able to be revealed later.

I am curious as to why Julian was killed. They weren't threatening and their reads were minimal. Honestly, and take this very loosely, it slightly makes me suspicious of Llewella. I say that because it's the type of NK I would do. I like to kill off weaker or less active players because I want a challenge interacting with the more engaged and accurate players. I feel like Llewella would view things the same way. There's nuances such as Llwella not having final say over who to kill, etc, etc, but I don't want to delve too deep into them because this is more of a note of interest than an actual read.

Out the gate I really don't like 18 from Caine. There is an immediate minimizing of their presence on the Flora wagon the entire DP and a shifting of responsibility for the Martin mislynch from themself. I really don't like 17 either, tbh. It reads as trying-to-be-subtle-WIFOM.

There may be something to be said about Caine opening on Fiona. With that said, it feels to me like the Fiona lynch was inevitable. But my valuation of Caine's vote is necessarily filtered through hindsight. The biggest issue I'm having with Caine as I reach 33 is that they are using the replacement of the Brand slot to not actually make meaningful reads on Brand. 34 just reads more of "none of this is my fault."

103 Here comes the backtrack from Random that I have been waiting for. I'm eager to get to the part of the DP where they put into writing their new thoughts on Brand.

104

I lowkey wana read kohai as saying 7-3 as a scum slip but I think he's just dumb and seems like he can't count

Hold on. This actually might be gold from Random. This references 10 from Caine,

9 alive

we we 7 v 3

we have very little room for error

This very much reads as someone who has talked about and internalized that the game would be 7v3 going into the DP. They were so engaged with their plan and how to transition the game from 7v3 to 5v3 to winning, or 7v3 to 6v2 to 4v2 to winning that once the DP went up, they didn't adjust their alignment count for the town-sided NK that they weren't expecting.

I'm going to head out to watch the game now. I will be back later tonight and active tomorrow morning / early afternoon. I might post a bit on my phone while I'm out.

Right now I'm looking at Random, Caine, Brand, Llewella in that order. I'm pretty comfortable reading Llewella as town in that group, but that's the PoE.

Why not Caine?

I like to kill off weaker or less active players because I want a challenge interacting with the more engaged and accurate players. I feel like Llewella would view things the same way. There's nuances such as Llwella not having final say over who to kill, etc, etc, but I don't want to delve too deep into them because this is more of a note of interest than an actual read.

I will say that yes, I do often like to target down inactives to improve games. That depends on my team though. Generally as Mafia I will ask players if they care more about winning or having fun and I work with what the team wants or sometimes I do silly shit for fun like RNG it but instead of a normal RNG we name players in the game after marbles and watch a marble race video together. If your not having fun playing a game then what is the point?

A-Bleys wrote:

Why not Caine?

I am not sure I understand the question.

As far as todays elimination I just generally felt they were towny digging through the Fiona situation. I looked at how each player interacted with Fiona and how Fiona interacted with them between you, Brand, Random and Caine. Cain was the one who looked good to me hard shoving Fiona D2 that looked far past bussing to me.

I do need to evaluate a bit more given Deirdre voiced concerns and they are the other player I view as town and want to triangulate reads with but in general after digging quite a bit N2 I walked into D3 looking at a focus of Random, Bleys, and Brand. (And yes, I did town read Garald I can post my thoughts of them from my lw if anyone is interested in what I was looking at there)

A-Bleys wrote:

Just got back from the barber. I will likely be heading out soon to watch the game, but I'm going to get started on DP2.

I want to have thoughts on Flora's will, but given the nature of the player I feel that it could be filled with deliberate misinformation about at least 1 player that will be able to be revealed later.

I am curious as to why Julian was killed. They weren't threatening and their reads were minimal. Honestly, and take this very loosely, it slightly makes me suspicious of Llewella. I say that because it's the type of NK I would do. I like to kill off weaker or less active players because I want a challenge interacting with the more engaged and accurate players. I feel like Llewella would view things the same way. There's nuances such as Llwella not having final say over who to kill, etc, etc, but I don't want to delve too deep into them because this is more of a note of interest than an actual read.

Out the gate I really don't like 18 from Caine. There is an immediate minimizing of their presence on the Flora wagon the entire DP and a shifting of responsibility for the Martin mislynch from themself. I really don't like 17 either, tbh. It reads as trying-to-be-subtle-WIFOM.

There may be something to be said about Caine opening on Fiona. With that said, it feels to me like the Fiona lynch was inevitable. But my valuation of Caine's vote is necessarily filtered through hindsight. The biggest issue I'm having with Caine as I reach 33 is that they are using the replacement of the Brand slot to not actually make meaningful reads on Brand. 34 just reads more of "none of this is my fault."

103 Here comes the backtrack from Random that I have been waiting for. I'm eager to get to the part of the DP where they put into writing their new thoughts on Brand.

104

I lowkey wana read kohai as saying 7-3 as a scum slip but I think he's just dumb and seems like he can't count

Hold on. This actually might be gold from Random. This references 10 from Caine,

9 alive

we we 7 v 3

we have very little room for error

This very much reads as someone who has talked about and internalized that the game would be 7v3 going into the DP. They were so engaged with their plan and how to transition the game from 7v3 to 5v3 to winning, or 7v3 to 6v2 to 4v2 to winning that once the DP went up, they didn't adjust their alignment count for the town-sided NK that they weren't expecting.

I'm going to head out to watch the game now. I will be back later tonight and active tomorrow morning / early afternoon. I might post a bit on my phone while I'm out.

Right now I'm looking at Random, Caine, Brand, Llewella in that order. I'm pretty comfortable reading Llewella as town in that group, but that's the PoE.

I've already responded to the alleged "scum slip." The calculation was based on the worst case scenario for town. I was not considering third parties in my calculation.

Bleys - I really like their contributions so far. Like Brand I'm having the same issue: Their predacessor was scummy but I find their contributions to be very towny.

One thing I noticed is this post here: https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/57/amber-mafia?page=8&comment_number=232

I really hated the reasoning behind their vote. This was when the Brand wagon was already starting to gain steam. Something to keep in mind.

A-Llewella wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

Why not Caine?

I am not sure I understand the question.

As far as todays elimination I just generally felt they were towny digging through the Fiona situation. I looked at how each player interacted with Fiona and how Fiona interacted with them between you, Brand, Random and Caine. Cain was the one who looked good to me hard shoving Fiona D2 that looked far past bussing to me.

The question is irt when you told me after I replaced in that you saw 2 scum between me, Brand, and Random.

I haven't finished catching up yet, but I'm eager to read the interactions on the Fiona lynch.

Automated Vote Count https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/57/amber-mafia?comment_number=233

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (3/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Llewella (p#222), A-Bleys (p#232)

A-Martin (2/7): A-Flora (p#199), A-Caine (p#203)

A-Llewella (1/7): A-Brand (p#6)

Not Voting (6): A-Deirdre, A-Fiona, A-Gerard (p#174), A-Julian, A-Martin (p#171), A-Oberon

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 2 days, 23 hours.

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

A-Caine wrote:

I've already responded to the alleged "scum slip." The calculation was based on the worst case scenario for town. I was not considering third parties in my calculation.

I don't think that answer is responsible to my concerns. The slip isn't that you know there aren't third parties, it's that you simultaneously acknowledged 9 players remaining and a 7v3 scenario. For one, mafia more readily dismisses third parties than town in internal calculations (the opposite is true externally). Second, there is dissonance from premeditatation which is a scum tell.

A-Bleys wrote:

A-Caine wrote:

I've already responded to the alleged "scum slip." The calculation was based on the worst case scenario for town. I was not considering third parties in my calculation.

I don't think that answer is responsible to my concerns. The slip isn't that you know there aren't third parties, it's that you simultaneously acknowledged 9 players remaining and a 7v3 scenario. For one, mafia more readily dismisses third parties than town in internal calculations (the opposite is true externally). Second, there is dissonance from premeditatation which is a scum tell.

The problem with this thinking is that mafia don’t know if there’s a 3p or not. The balance of power could have easily have been 6 v 1 v 3. And honestly there’s still a strong possibility there’s a third party left.

Apologies for generally being absent much of this afternoon and evening. Suffice it to say I've got a debate to handle and I had barely made a dent in prepping for it the last two days, so I needed to make some headway. I'll catch up on the DP and post my thoughts before it gets too late.

The problem with this thinking is that mafia don’t know if there’s a 3p or not. The balance of power could have easily have been 6 v 1 v 3. And honestly there’s still a strong possibility there’s a third party left.

That's simply not a flaw in my logic. Mafia only needs to get a majority. When they run internal calculations they don't need to consider third party. It's only mafia v the field.

A-Bleys wrote:

The problem with this thinking is that mafia don’t know if there’s a 3p or not. The balance of power could have easily have been 6 v 1 v 3. And honestly there’s still a strong possibility there’s a third party left.

That's simply not a flaw in my logic. Mafia only needs to get a majority. When they run internal calculations they don't need to consider third party. It's only mafia v the field.

3p have their own win conditions which may not end the game when mafia has a majority. For example there could still be an executioner with a target left. The game will continue

other 3p has to be the last person standing.

Rather than playing hope mafia it is better to consider the worst case scenario for town.

3p have their own win conditions which may not end the game when mafia has a majority. For example there could still be an executioner with a target left. The game will continue

other 3p has to be the last person standing.

And this is exactly the kind of scenario I don't expect a townie to think about.

A-Bleys wrote:

3p have their own win conditions which may not end the game when mafia has a majority. For example there could still be an executioner with a target left. The game will continue

other 3p has to be the last person standing.

And this is exactly the kind of scenario I don't expect a townie to think about.

Why not? These scenarios are absolutely real.