Amber Mafia - DP3

I understand this game wasn’t my best. If I get mislynched and cause town to lose I’ll accept the blame.

I’d like a response to #289. One of your major defenses behaviorally has been that you had a DP2 read on Random that he was the Jailor. You’ve repeated that, and both Bleys and I have asked you to substantiate it. What did I miss in my ISO?

A-Caine wrote:

Yeah This is why I think the jailor should out themselves.

I have a very strong jailor read on a particular player but don’t want to say who or why yet

I still can't wrap my head around this coming from t!Caine. If you feel you know who the jailor is, why do you think they should out themselves? What's the town logic? Scum logic is more apparent. You try to get a real jailor to out if they are alive, but if they aren't, you are already setting yourself up to give credibility to the jailor fake claim. If we mislynch we lose, so mafia can go all in working together to verify a jailor fake claim this DP.

I literally said this above like 3 times

You

Brand

Bleys

Lew

Wf

Myself

Highest lynch priority to not.

This is not expanding shit. Its poe and behavior and you are floundering all over the place. You have been consistently inconsistent

Still could be a jailor claiming vt which in retrospect is smart given how scummy caine is. Him probing on this is scummy as fuck

A-Llewella wrote:

A-Deirdre wrote:

I'm not sure why Gerard was so ready to townread Random beyond just knowing who this player is and how they generally act behaviorally. I don't mind that they went on a tangent so much (if anything, I kind of townread them for going after a mislynch that was never going to happen, doesn't line up with scum tactics I've seen before), but there was scant little focus on Fiona and it was just an acknowledgement of the CC as the target of the lynch last DP. I can't tell if that's just him trying to steer clear of saying much about it or being resigned to not being able to convince us on Oberon.

The narrative I am chewing on is a world where a s!Random as a wolf sees a team mate going down. They are uncomfortable interacting with other wolves (as many wolves are) so they just avoid it but need something to focus on. They end up landing on a weird push that makes little sense as they miscalculate the level of certainty to convey (which wolves do) as they avoid addressing their team mate going down. Then last moment they slap on a vote so they will look correct when people just look at raw wagon votes.

I could be very off base. But its what was in my head reading through D2 while focusing on what their mindset could be which is why I want to hear from you and Caine about it.

The thing that the Oberon push has me thinking about is. if mafia was going for a mislynch, they would be better off with any other target because it would end the game. But the fact that they get the kill back if Oberon is lynched is a big point. If we lynch Oberon DP2 then it's 4v3 today, and even if we lynch Fiona next DP, if they can get a blackmail kill + NK, game over.

Not sure if this has been asked but would scum know the role of the person they janitored

A-Random wrote:

Still could be a jailor claiming vt which in retrospect is smart given how scummy caine is. Him probing on this is scummy as fuck

That's the quiet part we don't say out loud. Still, enough people have claimed not to have been jailed that mafia might be deterred from fake claiming.

A-Bleys wrote:

A-Caine wrote:

Yeah This is why I think the jailor should out themselves.

I have a very strong jailor read on a particular player but don’t want to say who or why yet

I still can't wrap my head around this coming from t!Caine. If you feel you know who the jailor is, why do you think they should out themselves? What's the town logic?

It gets another confirmed town. In a 6 player pool with 2 scum 4 town having two confirmed town suffocated the mafia out of a win. In this case mafia have only two unconfirmed people to try and ML. This is why Random is keeping you in his poe.

In addition if the jailer claims and their target confirms them then that person is almost always a lock town.

Scum logic is more apparent. You try to get a real jailor to out if they are alive, but if they aren't, you are already setting yourself up to give credibility to the jailor fake claim. If we mislynch we lose, so mafia can go all in working together to verify a jailor fake claim this DP.

At this point everyone claimed VT. If anyone at this point claimed any form of PR then I would seriously doubt it.

Im aware but mafia knows this

Just asked mag but my assumption is they weren't told the role of Julian which has them debating if they fake claim it or if they get cced.

Which is why he's probing. Hes wanting brand to claim jailor

A-Bleys wrote:

A-Random wrote:

Still could be a jailor claiming vt which in retrospect is smart given how scummy caine is. Him probing on this is scummy as fuck

That's the quiet part we don't say out loud. Still, enough people have claimed not to have been jailed that mafia might be deterred from fake claiming.

Exactly. Zero town motive from Random’s post.

At this point anyone who claims jailer and jailed it would highly indicate they were the scum team.

A-Deirdre wrote:

I understand this game wasn’t my best. If I get mislynched and cause town to lose I’ll accept the blame.

I’d like a response to #289. One of your major defenses behaviorally has been that you had a DP2 read on Random that he was the Jailor. You’ve repeated that, and both Bleys and I have asked you to substantiate it. What did I miss in my ISO?

It is substantiated by my consistent town read on him that day phase.

Forgot when brand claimed but the motivation to me is a hit on a confirmed towny or the ability to try and spin the idea that someone claimed vt to not out they are the jailor.

The way he's constantly probing is bothersome.

It is substantiated by my consistent town read on him that day phase.

...except you spelled out your reason for townreading him, saying it was the result of him continuing to pursue Oberon throughout the DP. Do you just want me to take it on faith that your read was the result of something else entirely?

Rereading D3 now and this is something that I considered as I replaced in and I still think it's an accurate gut feeling:

#62 -> #65 -> #75 feels town to me.

#67 -> #72 is a ridiculous line.

A-Random wrote:

Forgot when brand claimed but the

p#192

0 town motive? You have neen trying to poke and push at who is a jailor to leverage options. You literally have retconned your read on me with the justification "I thought he was jailor" after you had me toen blocked and since im not the jailor. Im now scum and you want to know who to kill. Pie is screaming in hai grave. You are so bad at magia this hurts. You literally have not been consistent at all this game and jumped on any wagon that you could.

If we throw this im going to crash out. This is so blindly obvious.

It gets another confirmed town. In a 6 player pool with 2 scum 4 town having two confirmed town suffocated the mafia out of a win. In this case mafia have only two unconfirmed people to try and ML. This is why Random is keeping you in his poe.

In addition if the jailer claims and their target confirms them then that person is almost always a lock town.

Sure, but you already thought Random was jailor. Why did you need him to say it to everyone else?

At this point everyone claimed VT. If anyone at this point claimed any form of PR then I would seriously doubt it.

At this point, yes. That's the thing about day phases. They are temporal. They develop over time. At the beginning of the DP, a jailor claim would not have been absurd. Just because it looks so now, doesn't mean there wasn't a valid strategy to set up for it before.

It gets another confirmed town. In a 6 player pool with 2 scum 4 town having two confirmed town suffocated the mafia out of a win. In this case mafia have only two unconfirmed people to try and ML. This is why Random is keeping you in his poe.

In addition if the jailer claims and their target confirms them then that person is almost always a lock town.

Sure, but you already thought Random was jailor. Why did you need him to say it to everyone else?

At this point everyone claimed VT. If anyone at this point claimed any form of PR then I would seriously doubt it.

At this point, yes. That's the thing about day phases. They are temporal. They develop over time. At the beginning of the DP, a jailor claim would not have been absurd. Just because it looks so now, doesn't mean there wasn't a valid strategy to set up for it before.

A-Random wrote:

Im aware but mafia knows this

Just asked mag but my assumption is they weren't told the role of Julian which has them debating if they fake claim it or if they get cced.

Which is why he's probing. Hes wanting brand to claim jailor

I already said earlier in the day that Mag confirmed they did not receive the sanitized role information.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Random (1/4): A-Caine (p#175)

A-Caine (1/4): A-Random (p#232)

Not Voting (4): A-Bleys, A-Brand, A-Deirdre, A-Llewella

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day phase ends in 10 hours.

I have plans tonight, so I have roughly 2-3 hours to make my decision.

Appreciate you.

Yeah. This think this is largely solved

I’m going about for a bit. Seriously consider the following question

Why do random and Fiona avoid talking about each other in their ISO? Random has plenty of time to read him as magic and call him magic but doesn’t form any read until he votes him after it is clear it is a done deal.

Random proved he cannot win this game without blatant rule violations, angleshooting. He doesn’t give a fuck about integrity. The team is random / brand. They don’t deserve the win.

I’m seeing little reason to doubt that Caine is scum at this point, there’s just too much inconsistency in what he’s claiming he’s done and the reality of where it’s placed. I don’t love the push for the Jailor to out if he felt so strongly that Random was that Jailor. I get turning on him this DP after Random claimed if I believed that he was so certain of Random’s role, but that seems like an attempt to make his change of read on Random this DP sensible after townreading him solidly last DP. I’m giving him an opportunity to explain some of his choices and point out what he claims was an obvious read, but I haven’t seen anything substantial yet, just claims that he hasn’t played great which don’t explain the inconsistencies.

A-Caine wrote:

I’m going about for a bit. Seriously consider the following question

Why do random and Fiona avoid talking about each other in their ISO? Random has plenty of time to read him as magic and call him magic but doesn’t form any read until he votes him after it is clear it is a done deal.

Not talking about each other doesn’t really say much, especially given what has apparently been a busy schedule for Random. That being said, I’m not townreading him over it, it just doesn’t ping me as scummy. Calling Fiona Magic was a bit odd, but that’s about it.

Random proved he cannot win this game without blatant rule violations, angleshooting. He doesn’t give a fuck about integrity. The team is random / brand. They don’t deserve the win.

You know Random well enough at this point to know that angleshooting is NAI for him. The rule violations I put down to frustration, being overly busy, possibly a lack of sleep and just not giving a fuck at times. NAI as well.

Truthfully I am quitting mafia after this game, or at least on this site. I can’t fucking stand the constant rule violations and meta. If y’all wanna lose the game be my guest. I was the one who hard pushed Fiona yesterday.

I didnt avoid Fiona you nerd. Im stuck on oberon being magic because of his typing style and yes I thought that he was doing a gambit. As others have said. For me to do that is scum is retarded. We'd lose a kill. Yes I had conviction around it but I watched him pull off a op gambit last game and that theory was possible

Yes I get your mad the angle shooting solved the game. How is that even an argument im scum. Be mad at mag for allowing it to happen early on and me jumping on the wagon. Was happening before me.

I get it caught you but that's the dumbest fucking argument. You can't even articulate why im scum. Your just begging people to stop looking at you

If you and brand want. Go ahead and ff cus in death tunnel your asses

A-Bleys wrote:

I have plans tonight, so I have roughly 2-3 hours to make my decision.

I’m fine making a call before too long. Seems like we’re on the same page.

Truthfully I am quitting mafia after this game, or at least on this site.

Somewhere pie just nutted

Joking. You still shouldn't quit but mod was allowing it so it happened. Past that I logged in on my account and have been busy and dont remember half the fake names in this game. Im playing from my phone so easier ti use the name I know than to close out and look for who is who everytime

Its aids

To be clear. I asked for permission yo angle shoot and was given permission. This is not me doing it or starting it without consent.