Periodic Table of Elements Mafia - DP2

Casey_Risk wrote:

See, this is the sort of super specific, highly technical stuff I see in my own role and the flips we have already. Gives me good vibes.

I'm guessing that scum have similarly technical stuff in their role cards and that scum will design their fake-claims accordingly.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (2/6): Bullish (p#146), Banana (p#185)

Casey_Risk (1/6): Thoth (p#121)

Not Voting (8): Casey_Risk, Helz, Lunatic (p#155), Mag1cman (p#127), Mikal, RexFavilla, Shining, whiteflame

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day phase ends in 2 days, 10 hours.

Thoth wrote:

Casey_Risk wrote:

See, this is the sort of super specific, highly technical stuff I see in my own role and the flips we have already. Gives me good vibes.

I'm guessing that scum have similarly technical stuff in their role cards and that scum will design their fake-claims accordingly.

Of course. The problem is being able to come up with a good fake justification in the first place. That's not easy in a game like this one. That's my point

Bullish wrote:

Casey_Risk wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

As for the three investigatives, it's possible to have three because we in a 13 player game.

That being said, the time traveling motion detector and the tracker could clash a little. Possibly, will need to check some past games bc I swear I remember someone made a setup with both.

Again, it was Black Ops Mafia

https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12646-call-of-duty-black-ops-mafia-endgame

bro I don't even remember playing that game, and you remember there's a time traveller in it?

Also wow look at that, 3 investigative roles in that game, even though it only has 9 players.

Im catching up but I did dislike this positioning. Its very reasonable to be suspicious of 3 investigative claims even if that is inconvenient for you.

Casey/Rex/Bullish is a sus group of mech claims while Mikal/Lunatic/Bullish/Casey is a separate suspected group. I have yet to get to work on it all but I am seeing 2 pools that include Casey and Bullish with separate indicators as far as just mech claims.

Lunatics is separately a question. I hate the "Too scummy to be scum" arguments but its where my mind jumps with them. Like why would such a strong player claim such an obviously scum sided role? Thats a simple thing to lie about if they were scum and they had to know it would look terrible as they claimed it.

Then their progression with Casey does not make sense to the point I have some level of confidence that Casey/Lunatic are not WvW.

Justification Tracker

Role justified by character's properties:

-Magoroth

-Kohai

-Mag1cman

-Thoth*

-Mikal

-Whiteflame

*or lack thereof, in Thoth's case

Role justified by character's usage:

-Rex

-Casey

-Bullish

Role justified by its name

-Lunatic

it’s guaranteed that not every townie has their justification based on properties. But Lunatic’s claim still stands alone

Helz wrote:

Lunatics is separately a question. I hate the "Too scummy to be scum" arguments but its where my mind jumps with them. Like why would such a strong player claim such an obviously scum sided role? Thats a simple thing to lie about if they were scum and they had to know it would look terrible as they claimed it.

Then their progression with Casey does not make sense to the point I have some level of confidence that Casey/Lunatic are not WvW.

What makes you say that?

Mag1cman wrote:

What makes you say that?

What part?

It was the latter part, but let’s pretend I said both

Mag1cman wrote:

It was the latter part, but let’s pretend I said both

Well I feel I have clearly explained both.

Lunatic is a solid player with decent skill and experience imo. So I question looking at their claim of "I am a hider" which is a super scummy looking role. Even as town I would consider lying about that one. The fact they were honest makes little sense to me for scum. A player of their caliber would easily be able to make up a fake claim and its in my head if a S! Luna would honestly claim such a fucked off role at all.

On the other side I spoke about Luna/Casey at the start of the day. Luna shifted the elimination off Casey which makes me feel they are aligned. But then in return Casey reveals dreamer and throws Luna into the PoE. These things do not go together for a scum team outside of high end play which would be WIFOM I do not expect here. Like if it was some MU championship or something I could see the complex thought process where a scum team would make such a play. This is not that which leads me to conclude quite simply Lunatic could be scum, Casey could be scum, but I doubt they are both teamed.

I still think the chat creator should claim. That will limit the PoE and we can do a lot with that depending on who that claiming person is. Also scum is not exactly gona focus on killing some player because they create a chat.

Wrapping up some obligations. I would like to shove some analysis into this game before days end. Kinda seems like outside of mech everyone has turned their brains off. We need a hard win today. I would like to hear more discussion thats not just focused on claims.

Helz wrote:

I still think the chat creator should claim. That will limit the PoE and we can do a lot with that depending on who that claiming person is. Also scum is not exactly gona focus on killing some player because they create a chat.

Bullish mentioned this earlier in the DP in #148 and Mikal can back me when I say I surmised as much myself in chat with him, but there's a more than decent chance that the chat we're in was auto-generated as a result of our both being magnets. It doesn't make either of us town by default, but it does validate our character claims.

Casey_Risk wrote:

Why did you suddenly Unvote in #155?

Was voting bullish for a claim, he claimed.

What the hell does your role actually do? Break it down for me like I'm retarded please.

whiteflame wrote:

I'm going to knock off earlier tonight and read through the DP fresh tomorrow. I'll say I'm pretty split between Bullish and Luna atm for very different reasons.

Its strange to me how you are now completely town reading mikal.

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

I still think the chat creator should claim. That will limit the PoE and we can do a lot with that depending on who that claiming person is. Also scum is not exactly gona focus on killing some player because they create a chat.

Bullish mentioned this earlier in the DP in #148 and Mikal can back me when I say I surmised as much myself in chat with him, but there's a more than decent chance that the chat we're in was auto-generated as a result of our both being magnets. It doesn't make either of us town by default, but it does validate our character claims.

Im not thinking or speaking about anything flavor related this game. But in general I would like to assume things happen because of roles before considering some unspoken wild mechanic may exist.

Whiteflame and Mikal suddenly maga town reading each other is so odd given everything. Maybe bias towards being in a private chat? Just logically doesn't sit well given the way actions and claims have worked. There should be some natural suspicion regardless of a bit of town vibes.

Mega*

I am lynching between bullish and mikal today. I think there is decent reasons to lynch both, just need to sit on this. Casey being scum is a very real possibility I will consider as well. I just have some mental reservations as to whether they are the type of player to do that after seeing me do it in Russian Mafia. Kind of a copy cat play. Not sure if they do that or not.

The fact that everyone wants to lynch Bullish makes me think he's town lol.

I did not really take note of any strange progression in WF/Mikal's reads on etchother. I am really confused about the conclusion WF stated assuming some wild auto generated chat thing. Unless they have some kinda information they are not saying my mind is a little blown why Mikal and WF would jump to this assumption there is some magic hidden mechanic before simply thinking a role did a thing.

That stuck out a good bit to me.

Lunatic wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

I'm going to knock off earlier tonight and read through the DP fresh tomorrow. I'll say I'm pretty split between Bullish and Luna atm for very different reasons.

Its strange to me how you are now completely town reading mikal.

I didn't say I'm completely townreading him, I gave my full read in a previous post. I have a slight townread on him based on behavior I've seen in our chats together and how he responded to my claim with his own. I'm still wary of him, but no, I wouldn't say he's the main person I'm paying attention to this DP.

Helz wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

I still think the chat creator should claim. That will limit the PoE and we can do a lot with that depending on who that claiming person is. Also scum is not exactly gona focus on killing some player because they create a chat.

Bullish mentioned this earlier in the DP in #148 and Mikal can back me when I say I surmised as much myself in chat with him, but there's a more than decent chance that the chat we're in was auto-generated as a result of our both being magnets. It doesn't make either of us town by default, but it does validate our character claims.

Im not thinking or speaking about anything flavor related this game. But in general I would like to assume things happen because of roles before considering some unspoken wild mechanic may exist.

I agree, but given that everyone has posted at this point and no one has mentioned being responsible for us being in a Mason chat, I'm looking for alternative explanations. I'd be happy to be wrong.

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

I still think the chat creator should claim. That will limit the PoE and we can do a lot with that depending on who that claiming person is. Also scum is not exactly gona focus on killing some player because they create a chat.

Bullish mentioned this earlier in the DP in #148 and Mikal can back me when I say I surmised as much myself in chat with him, but there's a more than decent chance that the chat we're in was auto-generated as a result of our both being magnets. It doesn't make either of us town by default, but it does validate our character claims.

Im not thinking or speaking about anything flavor related this game. But in general I would like to assume things happen because of roles before considering some unspoken wild mechanic may exist.

I agree, but given that everyone has posted at this point and no one has mentioned being responsible for us being in a Mason chat, I'm looking for alternative explanations. I'd be happy to be wrong.

Yeah, Valid point. It will become more likely as time goes on. No clue why anyone would hide such a detail.

RexFavilla wrote:

The fact that everyone wants to lynch Bullish makes me think he's town lol.

Being another invest- do you have any issue with 2 other invests existing? If you had to pick a number like a % how likely do you feel it is for 3 Invests to be in the game and between Casey and Bullish which do you feel would be the fake one if there is too many?

Dont think its odd. Watched it happen in solo leveling as well. Could I be wrong about him sure. But we have talked 3x as much in there as the game trying to solve. He's been consitent and the evolution of how our claims progressed makes me buy it. At least there are way better targets. You get a couple of posts from people in dayphases but you get a way better read when you are consistently in a private dm trying to solve

Hes had no inconsistencies and has been extremely genuine from my view.

VTL: Casey_Risk

I'm probably going here just on the ability to solve. Unless someone can convince me otherwise and its a hard sell to me.

We either hard believe this claim or cover our bases. A casey lynch as scum hits scum. As town it validates that one of three people are scum and we can collapse on that for consistentices and results.

No one should out what their roles are other than who has outed thus far. We have enough. Few people have been quiet and can be game changing pending what they are. Limits scum from trying to alter results or tsrget specific people. Unknown roles are our best tool for poe

But if we buy Casey's results then we have to just town lock them now otherwise we are put in a postion where they are on the table tomorrow if we lynch in the dream and someone flips town and then its (lylo) assuming 3 scum

Il not willing to blind trust the dreamer claim given scum can ask game specific questions and it came up after high amounts of pressure when they logically would be looked at hard

Casey's flip unfortunately is necessary imo to cover bases and make sure we are not blindly killing ourselves.

Im still thinking 1 scum between casey and bullish. Bullish for potential balance reasons and the tmi he has toward casey being locked and casey just for safety more than anything. Its not worth the risk to walk off a cliff if we are wrong