Periodic Table of Elements Mafia - DP2

whiteflame wrote:

RexFavilla wrote:

RexFavilla wrote:

WAIT. If Mikal's action resolved first, and he targeted Luna, he should have visited himself. So this all depends on when redirectors and busdrivers resolve.

Second he being Whiteflame. If what Mikal and WF says happened there really should be no way he visited Shining. So the only options to explain vanillaizer is:

Luna is Vanillaizer

Other Vanillaizer targetted WF

WF is lying

Only way to explain WF visiting Shining is:

WF being redirected to shining (I think this would depend on order of operations to be possible as well, and if the ooo does not support this it could only be true if Mikal is lying)

Shining and WF being busdriven (depending on order of operations - but this would mean someone would have to target Shining with the vanillaizer so I would rule this out as he didn't soft any power roles)

WF is lying.

Largely agree up to the Bus Driver. To be specific, it would have to be Luna and Shining that were Bus Driven for things to work out the way they did, not me and Shining (I still would’ve been seen visiting Luna).

If Mikal resolved pulled your action back to yourself (you LRed yourself), you would never have visited Luna so that wouldn't be the case. You would be visiting yourself, and only by switching yourself and Shining could you be conceivably forced to visit Shining. And if that happaned and you were switched, the only way for you to be vanillaized would be if someone targeted Shining for it and then you were switched. But this also depends on ooo.

I don’t really get the assumption that my being redirected in any fashion puts the lie to Mikal’s claim, either. You say this a few times in this post and I don’t get it. I think you’re assuming that the Magnet works in both directions, which is not accurate. Luna’s night actions would be redirected to me by it, not the other way around.

It depends on order of operation. Does your LR get pulled back to you or doesn't it? If Mikal's roll is pulled to target you, does it override a redirector also targeting you? It kind of makes my head hurt ngl, and Mikal is now saying the opposite resolution is true.

Vote mikal, if I flip town he's going to be tunneling you tomorrow, you got no reason to vote me

idk what your thoughts are, I just need you to hop on and do one thing for me, vote mikal

If Mikal resolved pulled your action back to yourself (you LRed yourself), you would never have visited Luna so that wouldn't be the case. You would be visiting yourself, and only by switching yourself and Shining could you be conceivably forced to visit Shining. And if that happaned and you were switched, the only way for you to be vanillaized would be if someone targeted Shining for it and then you were switched. But this also depends on ooo.

I think I see your point. There has to be some way this works out, but I’m still iffy on the details. Too many redirects in play, missing essential pieces.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (3/6): Bullish (p#146), Banana (p#185), Lunatic (p#326)

Bullish (3/6): Mikal (p#329), Helz (p#287), whiteflame (p#324)

Casey_Risk (1/6): Thoth (p#121)

Not Voting (4): Casey_Risk, Mag1cman (p#127), RexFavilla, Shining

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 13 hours.

Vote mikal I beg of you

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (3/6): Bullish (p#146), Banana (p#185), Lunatic (p#326)

Bullish (3/6): Helz (p#287), whiteflame (p#324), Mikal (p#329)

Casey_Risk (1/6): Thoth (p#121)

Not Voting (4): Casey_Risk, Mag1cman (p#127), RexFavilla, Shining

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 13 hours.

UNVOTE

Bullish wrote:

Vote mikal, if I flip town he's going to be tunneling you tomorrow, you got no reason to vote me

We're not in a rush here, are we? We still have plenty of time before the day ends and no one is at L-2 yet from what I can see. I want to do some close reading of the game so far before EoD if possible. Truth be told, I never fully caught up on DP1

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (3/6): Bullish (p#146), Banana (p#185), Lunatic (p#326)

Bullish (3/6): Helz (p#287), whiteflame (p#324), Mikal (p#329)

Not Voting (5): Casey_Risk, Mag1cman (p#127), RexFavilla, Shining, Thoth (p#338)

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 12 hours.

Again, I would like to ask everyone: Imagine that any of the three people in the Dreamer PoE were lynched. Imagine that they flip town or scum. That's six possibilities. How would each of those affect your view of the game?

Is there a specific intent behind this question?

Whiteflame mentioned this in chat and the more I look at this the more desperate it seems and hes right. The person who im saying should be lynched is evaluating this more than than bullish.

It's bleeding opprutunisc, rushed, and no consideration for other outcomes.

I want to look at if scum has a way to win today. Dont seem how but the desperation in this is concerning

Is there a specific intent behind this question?

Nothing except a generic desire to get people to think and plan for the future.

Thoth wrote:

Is there a specific intent behind this question?

Nothing except a generic desire to get people to think and plan for the future.

tbh, feels like fake contrib

To be clear. Casey is still the correct lynch but at least is measured and considerate of exploring the game state

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (3/6): Bullish (p#146), Banana (p#185), Lunatic (p#326)

Bullish (3/6): Helz (p#287), whiteflame (p#324), Mikal (p#329)

Not Voting (5): Casey_Risk, Mag1cman (p#127), RexFavilla, Shining, Thoth (p#338)

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 12 hours.

Thoth wrote:

Again, I would like to ask everyone: Imagine that any of the three people in the Dreamer PoE were lynched. Imagine that they flip town or scum. That's six possibilities. How would each of those affect your view of the game?

Must've missed where you asked this earlier. Alright, let's do it. I'll take as a given that any scum flip basically confirms Casey, and largely confirms the other two as town. Conversely, any town flip draws more attention to Casey and the remaining two players in the Dreamer POE.

Luna:

1. Flips scum: Almost certainly flips Vanillaizer. Since it's the only read he's given, I'd give some credit to Shining, though not a lot given the lack of explanation. Thoth has a little more on Luna's claim looking off and Mag1c has drawn attention to how much of an outlier his justification has been, so they'd be in good shape. Helz would look pretty sus from this, given how much he's supported Luna as town. Harder to say who else, but Banana is a pretty blank slate on Luna's claim.
2. Flips town: Attention mainly goes to people who challenged him on his justification, so Mag1c and Thoth with a little sus on Shining. Helz ends up looking pretty solid.

Bullish:

1. Flips scum: More support for Rex's claim. Helz would almost certainly be town, since he was drawing attention back to Bullish when said attention was waning. Main attention would be on Banana who would stand out among those on Mikal's wagon (given the other two are in the Dreamer result) and Thoth (noticed you pushing back on Bullish's lynch back in DP1, not much attention paid to him this DP).
2. Flips town: Apart from the obvious that I'd be pretty sus, I'd have to at least start reconsidering my read on Mikal and Helz, who I think have driven this wagon more than anyone else. Both Banana and Thoth would gain some towncred from this. Shining would be an outside consideration in both cases.

Mikal:

1. Flips scum: I'd say it lends more credence to my claim, though my defense of him might look pretty sus. Banana looks pretty good from this one given her early pressure on Mikal that hasn't wavered. Attention would mainly be on Helz, Mag1c, Shining and Thoth.
2. Flips town: Bound to immediately draw attention to me given the similarities in our claims. Banana would look pretty bad with this flip, and both Bullish and Luna would also be pretty obviously concerning. I'd have to at least reconsider Rex, though I have other reasons for townreading him, so that would be a tough one.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (3/6): Bullish (p#146), Banana (p#185), Lunatic (p#326)

Bullish (3/6): Helz (p#287), whiteflame (p#324), Mikal (p#329)

Not Voting (5): Casey_Risk, Mag1cman (p#127), RexFavilla, Shining, Thoth (p#338)

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 12 hours.

Thoth wrote:

Again, I would like to ask everyone: Imagine that any of the three people in the Dreamer PoE were lynched. Imagine that they flip town or scum. That's six possibilities. How would each of those affect your view of the game?

Interesting question. I did see your earlier version of it, though I believe that one asked how it would affect my view of my Dreamer claim, which I obviously didn't see value in responding to. While I don't think any teams of two players in my dream impossible necessarily, I think it's likely that there's only one scum in my dream, so anyone flipping scum means the other two are probably clear.

Regarding Bullish specifically, if he flipped scum, I would have to wonder about what gave him the idea for that claim. He could be lying about just not remembering it, of course, but other than me apparently, I think the person most likely to remember that role would be the one who actually had it - Earth himself (Shining). So I think Bullish flipping scum would implicate Shining, and Banana as well for how she's agreed with Bullish this DP.

About to drive home, will share more thoughts later.

You've been quiet this DP. Do you have anything thoughts that don't involve you being sus of Mikal?

I have family coming into town for daugters graduation so I am not sure how active I will be. Theybget here today and are here for a weekish. Could be around a lot but may not. Optically not sure how that looks yet.

Been talking with wf a lot and his theory is this shove on me is so when I flip it implicated him because of how similar the roles are and sets up an easy mislynch. Its possible that is true but I want ti update my read list in case I do go out

Wf - im pretty positive hes town. Not locked but behavior wise hes good. If I go down please do not let the similar roles force a read on him. Really do believe its very plausible and he's been consistent in chat since we have been there

Luna - prob town but second guessing. Null/town. The way hes shut his brain off with bullish makes me wonder if there is a pair there but I don't see a scum luna making that claim

Rex - prob the most town. I dont see him claiming the way he did as scum

Casey - null. Could be scum and could be town but they are the correct lynch today and the fact there is a 1v1 is going to make tomorrow very hard. Regardless of who dies today and what they flip. We are in a position wondering if the results are true. Still think casey dying validates those results.

Bullish - prob scum. Also a brain dead push and the fact they have not considered that casey could be lying reads like they dont want casey to die and bleeds tmi. Casey flipping scum would move him to town in my head and give credibility from balance but behavior this push and braind dead shove feels bad

Helz - null/town That role seems to be the only way we can protect ourselves other than wfs claim so I tend to believe it

Thoth - maybe scum. The role that reveals dp4 could be used to stall since we may not even get there. This is strictly poe and I am flipping on this a lot because of that town slip about asking who Connor was dp1

Magic Anna and shinning are null

Prob one other scum in the nulls.

Lynch pool to me looks like this

Casey

Bullish

Thoth

Plus one of of the bulls based on evolving behavior and results.

Can you explain your reads more clearly? Its D2 and I still have rather limited understanding of what your views are.

Thoth wrote:

Again, I would like to ask everyone: Imagine that any of the three people in the Dreamer PoE were lynched. Imagine that they flip town or scum. That's six possibilities. How would each of those affect your view of the game?

Quite honestly I think town should be focusing more backwards than forwards.

We have a train we could analyze with a super awkward shift and it has gotten rather limited attention. Pre-flop association hunting has its place but I feel looking at D1 holds greater value in general.

Might as well say this bit as well- One problem I have with mass pre-flip claims is that it gives scum a roadmap to how to line up eliminations. They get to hear in advance "Oh, if we eliminate this slot these players will want want to eliminate this next one tomorrow."

Rather dangerous potential.

Casey_Risk wrote:

Honestly, I was pretty surprised that I got a dream. I was expecting that someone would likely investigate me.

This is an odd assumption. As an invest you assumed you would be investigated... Is there something in your role that declares you being investigated changes things? What made you think there would be multiple investigators?

It would be like if I assumed as a protective I would get protected. That strikes me as a strange conclusion thats out of place from an uninformed town mindset.

Something I was hoping to see but have not is the Invest roles to treat the situation as more of a CC. Im not seeing that at all. Instead of being suspicious of etchother they seem to be circling the wagons and supporting the existence of multiple invests. Thats the exact position I would expect scum to make deflating concerns about their claim while pivoting elsewhere but its like they are all doing it. I was really hoping to see at least one pop up and shove that its a reasonable potential as a strong town indicator..

Helz wrote:

Something I was hoping to see but have not is the Invest roles to treat the situation as more of a CC. Im not seeing that at all. Instead of being suspicious of etchother they seem to be circling the wagons and supporting the existence of multiple invests. Thats the exact position I would expect scum to make deflating concerns about their claim while pivoting elsewhere but it’s like they are all doing it. I was really hoping to see at least one pop up and shove that its a reasonable potential as a strong town indicator..

Yeah I made this same point earlier. They were suspicious of each other for like 5 seconds then magically town read each other lol