Periodic Table of Elements Mafia - DP3

I prefer bullish over casey because as I mentioned. I think hes acting completely opposite of how he normally acts.

I think past that im also good at looking at shinning thoth or magic.

But bullish to me is still the best Pick here since we did not pick casey yesterday

I am about to be very busy today and tomorrow cus graduation is Monday

I hope I dont get lynched cus we are going to throw the game and you are prob going to end up in a spot where you are picking between bullish and casey when I flip town just out of poe

In a bullish vs casey situation. Id go bullish. Behavior is to polar opposite how he normally acts. We kinda lost the boat on casey cus yesterday was the optimal time to get her. We can still go today and if she flips scum great. And then 1v1 bullish and me if she flips towb but I think behaviorlly bullish is just off.

I do think wf is hard town

Lack of a protect makes helz look good and the ability to negate roles from balance makes sense

Can't see a world where rex isn't town

Listed out reasons above. But putting this here in case I get dog piled as im prob not going to have time to defend myself later today and tomorrow and fully expect scum to capitalize on that. But family over mafia game. I've did all I can do

VTL: Bullish

If we end up landing on casey or want to explore someone else. @ me in discord and ill try and see if I can speed read. There are some people I won't consider [wf helz rex] but if its someone that makes sense I'll cooperate

I will try to be on and active more of the day today.

In terms of how I'm viewing everyone so far, I'll give some basic reads to start.

I think Rex is town. I don't think he gives that result on me or plays this DP out the way he has as scum, it just doesn't make any sense to me.

I'm writing off both Helz and Thoth for today. Behaviorally, I've seen nothing but good reason to townread Helz, and since he's the only claimed protective role, that applies mechanically as well. If he trusts Thoth and they're in chat together, that's good enough for me, at least for this DP. The fact that neither of them are listed in Casey's Dream is another reason I'm setting them aside.

For the same reason, while I can't say I'm townreading either Mag1c or Shining, I'm leaving them aside for this DP. Shining hasn't contributed enough to get any kind of read beyond the most basic. And while I like how Mag1c's gone about analyzing night actions and getting reads, none of it has really pushed me either way. They're about as null as null can get for me at this point.

And that leaves our main 3: Bullish, Casey and Mikal. I have different reasons for considering all of them.

Bullish is largely behavioral. He has at least some mechanical support for himself, in part driven by the very early softclaim. I give him a decent amount of credit for that. I'm tempted to say it's not a risky fake claim, but most of the Periodic Table isn't. I'm mainly questioning whether he'd go back to the previous game, take this role, and apply it here just assuming that Pie wouldn't re-use it. I don't love that he's now had a chance to go back and use his Motion Detector on the previous NP only to find that it's not useful information, though I think he'd have reason to incriminate someone if he was scum using that fake claim. The fact that he hasn't may just be a WIFOM issue, though. I do think Bullish has been behaviorally very strange this game, and that's what is making it difficult to make a call on him.

Casey is mainly paranoia. I know Casey did technically soft their role early on, but I'm a little less ready to give them as much credit since they could have just been sleep deprived instead of, you know, actually softing. What's better for them is the decision to claim early last DP despite not knowing if anyone had visited them. Unless scum have some role that allows them to parse out what happened during the NP, or at least what happened to them, that's a huge risk. Maybe scum Casey takes that risk, but I doubt it. I'd say Casey's been pretty consistent behaviorally as well.

Then there's Mikal. So I've got a lot of behavioral insight into Mikal and he was very plain with me about his strategy and what he's been trying to do in this game. I have more basis for a behavioral townread on him than anyone in this game because we spent so much time talking. That being said, I recognize he's also the most mechanically sus of the three. Multiple elements don't help his case. Bullish is right that he didn't soft his character or role early. He claimed a magnetic element without knowing that mine was magnetic, so I can't give him as much credit as I initially did for outing his character to me. The Magnet itself is, at minimum, a pseudo-CC of mine. I have to question whether he'd make the decision to do so after knowing that I was the Lightning Rod, and no, he didn't wait long to claim Magnet after I claimed my role to him. If he's scum, then after preparing this fake claim, he was full speed ahead on pushing it. Couple that with a pretty consistent attitude of frustration that either my or his lynch/NK would incriminate the other and it's hard to believe he's just making this up, though maybe he just has manipulated me that well. Finally, knowing that I'd been redirected to Shining NP1, a claimed redirection role looks bad. He claimed that before Rex outed his result, so I can't give him credit for that one, either.

Suffice it to say that I can see reasons to lynch any of these 3, but I'm leaning on Bullish or Mikal. I haven't decided which yet.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (2/5): Bullish (p#6), RexFavilla (p#140)

Bullish (1/5): Mikal (p#181)

Not Voting (6): Casey_Risk, Helz, Mag1cman, Shining, Thoth, whiteflame

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day phase ends in 21 hours.

RexFavilla wrote:

You should look at the incentives for the dreamer poe as well. Scum would want to take the best mislynch target to mylo. For Mikal, thats Bullolush. For Bullish, thats Mikal. For Casey, its Bullish. Yet Casey had been pushing a Bullish lynch and Bullish has been vociferously opposing a Casey lynch. Mikal is the only one pushing lynches that line up with an ideal scum Mikal endgame with night actions (fucking with Casey's dreamer) which also line up with that overall plan (Casey is no longer a mislynch target today if she had gotten results.)

I really like the line of thinking but I am not sure why its better for Casey to go for Bullish. 2 sus things about Casey is their dreamer pool and the fact they are in a crowded group of invests with the most scummy looking role of the 3. If anything going for Bullish would be harmful if their Dreamer claim is a lie and they should be mechanically incentivized to gun for Mikal over Bullish.

This would also be in a world where Bullish / Casey are not W/W which is additionally possible. Setting up such a PoE would be a clever way to bus with either flipping at some point and looking outstanding for the other wolf while at ever turn I see Bullish shouting that Casey is town with unreasonable confidence and Casey hard focusing Mikal over Bullish.

Every bit of what I am looking at there suggests to me Casey is going for exactly the target they would as scum as opposed to acting against their interests.

So to unpack a bit more of my WF/Rex read-

Something I talked a bit with Thoth about is the Vanalizer role almost certainly being scum. I would be open to hearing from anyone that feels that role could be town but I just find it very unlikely. Then we see WF claimed they were hit first. This would reflect a decent town indicator in itself but its much stronger given Rex claimed they were hit N2. This is why I said for WF to be scum they must be scum with Rex and I was not interested in flipping them unless very specifically Rex flipped Mafia. Having 2 separate players confirm the existence of a role is substantial and I see wolves hard aligning themselves with mech on this site for no particular reason early in a game as rather unlikely as well. I do not feel either player was in fear of being the days elimination as they claimed.

For Rex I give less credit. Still would have claimed to be hit by a Vanallizer who is more than likely scum but could be that the Vanallizer was a 1 shot and as scum, making such a claim would be a great move. The world of WF/Rex W/W is possible but I just find it rather unlikely and unlike WF they do not have the requirement I see for WF to be scum that either Rex has to be scum -or- Vanalizer has to be town (Which I do not see as very reasonable)

Then there is how open WF has been with constant read walls. I am pretty certain WF has posted double or triple the amount of read walls as any other player in the game before you even consider the value of the content.

For Rex out of the Invest pool of Dreamer/Motion Detector/Tracker I feel Tracker is the most probable to exist for town. Dreamer is a perfect scum claim and Motion Detector feels ehh. Would be too easy to know a player can move and just say "Yup, they moved" in a community that claims so much. Between the three 'if' there is too many invests I feel Rex is at the lower end of that list for a fake claim.

The counter logic I see would be a balance argument that Tracker would fit with some variation of a scum invest. But then Town would just feel too weak imo for what we are seeing in roles in many respects which makes me doubt it?

On the behavioral side something that substantially pinged me was Rex's D3 post #114. I kinda expected to be dead today but if the Mafia team thought I was a 1x it makes total sense I was ignored. I have been uncomfortable with their slot most of the game and been pretty vocal about it. Then I also think about how scum would desperately want to know about that exact information from me to where I could see a natural reaction like that and I have been low key suspicious of people being suspicious of me given I am a non counter claimed protective.

Overall I strongly town read WF and I am not interested in considering Rex for the elimination today at all. Positionally Rex is a town lean while by behavior I would put them as null at best with a number of reasons I would scum lean. I feel like my analysis on them could be wrong and its less likely for Rex to be scum because of the Vanalizer dynamic and the claim situation between the invests.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (2/5): Bullish (p#6), RexFavilla (p#140)

Bullish (1/5): Mikal (p#181)

Not Voting (6): Casey_Risk, Helz, Mag1cman, Shining, Thoth, whiteflame

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day phase ends in 17 hours.

VTL: Casey_Risk

Im gona vote here for the moment. Hopefully people will pop in and voice some thoughts but I will dump mine before end of day.

Also bullish needs to say his results. Just dismissed this initially but if he ends up alive and in the poe. I dont want him to have the chance to retcon based on what other people say.

Mikal wrote:

Also bullish needs to say his results. Just dismissed this initially but if he ends up alive and in the poe. I dont want him to have the chance to retcon based on what other people say.

I’ll second this. If nothing else, learning who Bullish targeted, why, and what feedback he got would give us something else to examine. Banana held back on claiming and now we can’t even read into why she chose her targets.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (2/5): Bullish (p#6), RexFavilla (p#140)

Bullish (1/5): Mikal (p#181)

Casey_Risk (1/5): Helz (p#188)

Not Voting (5): Casey_Risk, Mag1cman, Shining, Thoth, whiteflame

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day phase ends in 13 hours.

VTL: Casey_Risk

Approximately 12 hours remaining

I will be around for a minute if anyone wants to engage. Going to work on articulating my Casey/Mikal/Bullish thoughts as cleanly as I can.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (2/5): Bullish (p#6), RexFavilla (p#140)

Casey_Risk (2/5): Helz (p#188), Thoth (p#192)

Bullish (1/5): Mikal (p#181)

Not Voting (4): Casey_Risk, Mag1cman, Shining, whiteflame

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day phase ends in 11 hours.

Suffice it to say that I get the basic idea for pursuing Casey, even if it’s just to determine whether their Dream is real.

There’s a real chance Casey’s soft is coincidental. It’s tough to say.

I’ll make a decision at some point before bed.

Any results from last night?

whiteflame wrote:

Suffice it to say that I get the basic idea for pursuing Casey, even if it’s just to determine whether their Dream is real.

Its a fair play. We been playing poorly and lynching Casey at least guarantees we can focus on Bullish v Mikal. If Casey is scum, then we are in much better standing to discuss if Casey would bus her buddy.

VTL: Casey_Risk

Mikal is 55-45 months ver Casey for me rn

55-45 over Casey*

I think bullish is still a better pick

But no one listens. Casey was better last dayphase

I will vote whoever I have to in order to save my ass but I really dont like bullish

Mikal wrote:

But no one listens. Casey was better last dayphase

I will vote whoever I have to in order to save my ass but I really dont like bullish

I'd prefer Bullish as well atm, but that may not be an option.

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Casey_Risk (3/5): Helz (p#188), Thoth (p#192), Shining (p#200)

Mikal (2/5): Bullish (p#6), RexFavilla (p#140)

Bullish (1/5): Mikal (p#181)

Not Voting (3): Casey_Risk, Mag1cman, whiteflame

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day phase ends in 9 hours.

We have 9 hours left. I'll hop on early tomorrow and make the call if no one's decided as the hammer tonight.

Bout to sleep and prob wont be back before this ends

Casey is in my poe but bullish is a better target. I want him but doing this because its casey or me and im not going to throw and just lay down.

Still think this is prob bullish thoth and shinning. If I do get killed. Im probably going to implicate wf because our roles are so similar. Prob will be a push on him. I think he's town

VTL: Casey_Risk

Pretty much every road I am looking at includes a potential of Casey being scum. Bullish could be teamed with their behavior. Casey has a claim I feel could overcrowd invests. Casey has created a PoE they are certainly in. I have not seen what I expect out of a T! Casey. I also mech question them not having a result today. If scum have 1 role thats killing and 1 role thats making people vanilla and one role thats bypassing protection what could stop their check? And there is zero reason a town would stop it. We are missing something mech there or Casey is lying about them not having a result/having that role. Every bit of this has me on them. Then there is the fact that their claim is kinda a perfect scum claim. I won't unpack that again.

I also see zero reason Bullish would not claim their action. Zero town reason to do that after they revealed. Past that I struggle so hard to understand why they are so certain on the alignments of players. What they voice just does not line up with their reasoning and as I ask for clarification as to why I get reasons to suspect but not reasons to be so certain they are screaming "Trust me I know this person is scum and they should die" kinda thing. Their claim is also a bit of an easy scum claim but not as bad as Caseys but their behavior is so much worse in some respects. Then I have to recognize WF seems to favor them who is my strongest town read.

Trying to close out an event but off the top of my head these two are my preferred eliminations. Im not opposed to Mikal or Shining as well looking at my PoE for the day. Mag1c I am ehh, concerned about but I do not think they should be a focus today.

Im not opposed to swapping to Bullish. Im also kinda unhappy at how lethargic town is and was really hoping to see more engagement. Thoth and WF have my ear and I am not really interested in Rex. Shining is an option if we just want to throw the dice randomly on a lurker but thats what that is because nobody wants to pay attention to them. Between the multiple pools I do think Casey should be a strong option though.