Periodic Table of Elements Mafia - DP3

it's hard

RexFavilla wrote:

Helz wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

Helz and Mikal are in mechanical conflict.

If we assume Helz is town, the only real explanation we have for his action failing to protect Kohai, is if he was redirected away. Which points to Mikal being scum.

If we assume Mikal is town, then no one could have redirected Helz away from Kohai. Making Helz scum in that case.

This has been on my mind. I was not told my action failed either night. I figured D2 that some form of redirect/witch/control/movement had to happen for my action to fail which WF and Mikal fit the bill for.

Positionally I am also confused why both would openly reveal as that given its the core issue for the kill to begin with. My target tonight survived but obviously I was not on Banana. Really did not expect that kill.

Hold the phone, weren't you 1x?

No. I am not 1x

I would rather not say more on that subject for obvious WIFOM reasons

just noticed the newest update disable likes on mafia threads

well, active games that is

good

Heads up, I have plans for tonight and probably won't be on for much of it. Suffice it to say that I've caught up again and basically agree with the scenarios Mag1c outlined in #115 and #116. I realize my circumstances are very dependent on some kind of redirection being in play, and specifically on the existence of a Bus Driver to explain quite a bit if we believe Mikal's town. Not going to pretend it's an easy lift for the rest of you to buy into, but here we are.

I will address a couple of things I saw come up. Both from Rex:

TBH the quickness that he gave a rebuttal to my argument is the only thing that gives me pause - it's almost like he already thought this through, which to me is kind of in character for town Whiteflame but even more in character for a scum Whiteflame who had planned all this out. But if he did bravo I guess, I need to hard town read one of you scummy bastards at this point.

All I can say is that I asked Pie pretty much immediately after I saw you post your being Vanillaized whether that would affect your ability to receive results on that night. I thought the answer would be no (figured you might be keeping some useful result to yourself for now) and planned to keep it to myself, but he said yes and you saw how I dealt with that.

Since I now think WF is town, I feel like Mikal maybe got a magnetic metal as a fake claim and was thinking of claiming actual magnet or lightning rod but had to come up with something on the fly once WF outed. If WF can tell me I'm off base on this, please do. But it feels like this claim is an albatross around his neck that he just doesn't want to look at or talk about and it's making him awkward and difficult. The pep is out of his step so to speak.

So I gave away that I was the Lightning Rod first. He then said he can redirect, saying it was worded as he can magnetize, and then that he is Cobalt. It was a while after that that I mentioned I'm Neodymium, to which he expressed a lack of knowledge of the element. Maybe he had a last minute change of heart about claiming Lightning Rod, though I doubt it. Cobalt doesn't really suit itself to it, but it does pretty well to Magnet. I think either the character and role were prepared together and presented to me as fake claims, or they are real. That's my read.

So within the 20 possibilities there's so many sub-possibilites that it's way too hard to brute force.

I'm done with mech analysis. It's not going anywhere.

Re: #116. I do have one more thing to say on mech.

Mag1cman wrote:

If strongman: Scum can cover for Helz, protect Shining from investigatives/ implicate Lunatic in investigations w/ bus drive, and mess with Bullish

Hmmm. That actually does cover for everything.

No it doesn’t. I forgot about Whiteflame. His vanillized status is unaccounted for.

whatever the combination of actions is, there’s not enough room for all of this

Actually, if there's no cop scum would have no framer, godfather, lawyer, etc and know there's no cop.

So let's theorycraft: Bullish happens to be tracker in this universe. Mafia has a ninja to counter the tracker. Mafia sees this and knows there's a tracker. Unknown mafioso vanillizes Whiteflame. Unknown mafioso bus drives Shining/Lunatic. Shining strongman kills Kohai. Scum correctly theorized Bullish is the tracker in this universe. Bullish tracks Lunatic to Kohai. Or tracks Shining to someone who wasn't the NK.

This works as something mafia could've had as their plan. Is it a given? No. But it does explain everything.

also in case it isn't obvious I no longer believe Shining is clear on mech.

Any role that can move actions from Lunatic to Shining implicates Shining to an extent. Otherwise, Shining is in the clear. But we won't know that until the last scum falls, at which point it's moot.

Any role that can move actions from Lunatic to Shining implicates Shining to an extent. Otherwise, Shining is in the clear. But we won't know that the "otherwise" is the case until the last scum falls, at which point it's moot.

EBWOP for the sake of clarification

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (1/5): Bullish (p#6)

Not Voting (8): Casey_Risk, Helz, Mag1cman, Mikal, RexFavilla (p#51), Shining, Thoth, whiteflame

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day phase ends in 2 days, 11 hours.

Well, I guess nothing's been added since last night. Going to be prepping for a debate, so I'm not going to have as much time to post today as I'd like. I'll be around and hopefully develop some more thoughts on the DP as the day goes on.

I don’t want to reveal what all Helz and I have said in our chat, but I will say that I consider him town beyond a reasonable doubt, and I think that y’all would too if you saw our chat.

I think for me its between bullish and casey. Someone inside that poe is lying. Has to be. Both could be scum. 1 could be scum [more likely] but both cant be town

Going to think on who I want to vote. Bullish just seems hyper aggressive and has turned his brain off. The death tunnel and how aggressive he is just contrasts so much with his normal play

Casey's behavioral seems town but did not get a dream. I didnt visit as i hinted cus I wanted see the response if she thought I was visiting her. No one is claiming to have went to her so this seems sus

Behavioral im on bullish

Mechanically and the benefit of the fake claim. Im on casey

Im leaning and inclined to go bullish cus behavior this game is going to outweighs mechanics due to all the the fusion around the ooo

I am leaning slightly towards Casey if only because we get a good result either way: if scum, we caught scum; if town, we confirm their Dreamer PoE. I won’t object to a Bullish lynch based on current information, though.

Hey, where's the like button?

David was commenting on much how it comes up in games so yeeted it i think. Figured jt was him or savang

Mikal wrote:

David was commenting on much how it comes up in games so yeeted it i think. Figured jt was him or savang

But the only reason why I play Mafia is to get likes on my fluffposts

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

Mikal (1/5): Bullish (p#6)

Not Voting (8): Casey_Risk, Helz, Mag1cman, Mikal, RexFavilla (p#51), Shining, Thoth, whiteflame

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day phase ends in 1 day, 19 hours.

Consider this mod intervention. I'm deleting most of these spammed vote counts since it's just taking up space.

Casey's behavioral seems town but did not get a dream. I didnt visit as i hinted cus I wanted see the response if she thought I was visiting her. No one is claiming to have went to her so this seems sus

Why on earth would it be suspicious? If she's town scum will of course visit her and not say that they did because its a scummy thing to do.

VTL: Mikal

She's in a poe with 3 people and no one is sure if the results matter? Why would scum visit her lol. Didn't you say you also got vanilla ized. So they if they hit you, they have limited actions left. See it as hard pressed they would worry about casey when half of town is questioning the dreamer results. What is another set of reads?

I mean maybe I'm assuming to much but having any night actions on casey as both town or scum makes no sense.

Town cus it would interrupt her. I hinted I was going to visit her to see if I could stop the results but wanted her to claim if she did or did not dream to cross compare. If she got a result then it gives her heavy cred. But no one in town should be going to her. Just tried to hint I was to see what she would say

Scum. Why would scum waste actions on someone that is on the chopping block. She gets results great. Half the people in the game are not sure they exist and there is a 3 person poe. If mafia did go to her then they are stupid. Other actions could be way more harmful to them given some people still have not claimed.

But maybe I'm assuming everyone thinks like me and mafia did go herp derp

Also wf can confirm this was literally my thought process yesterday.

Past all the what if this happened or what if that happened. Im trying to look at behavior. Im much more of a mechanical ogi person but everyone including myself has looked at the ooo and no one can quite figure out why things happened. To many variables and unknowns. This is the one game we should go on behavior

Casey - the dreamer is a golden claim and just wins she claimed this and we buy it. Given mafia have questions to ask. Its very very possible and she should have died yesterday to confirm the list. But here we are wondering if its real

Past that, the only reason i have to sus her is what i said above. Don't see either team going to her which is why i kept asking if someone visited her

The harder thing with her is I behavior wise ping her town as fuck. Thought processes. How calm she is. 0 fear in the lynch and trying to solve despite pushes. It just feels good

Wf - this is still prob my hardest town read. 1k posts and never did he slip. Convo was just to many posts and to fluent and he largely had the same thought process as i did without ever fucking up or slipping

Skep - prob second hardest town read. Mainly because if how he claimed tracker. Just cant see scum doing it. Also how he trolled earlier in the game and getting attention for no reason

Helz - third biggest read. This is largely cus balance. Behavior wise hes hard. Have not played enough with him but the ability to negate multiple roles and have some protection seems logical

Thoth - he still bothers me. Hes not posted a lot or engaged much and seems to be coasting. His claim seemed like a stall tactic. Thought he was inno child but david flipped that. Then I wondered the claim was a way to functionally claim last and avoid a cc

Bullish - so just seems off. I dont buy the poe from casey fully but he seems eratic as fuck compared to his usual chill playstyle. Hes hard death tunneling and it just sticks out from town games I've seen him in where he normal doesn't give a fuck

That leaves magic and shinning

Shining as always is hard to read cus him vanishing and not playing is nai. Nothing to really read or care about

Magic- even harder. Magic is prob one of the best players on the site and incredible as scum. He does a very good job and playing as he was town as scum and hes versatile. His arguments strike me as odd. He seems to be cluttering reads and posts with trying to figure out ooo instead of looking at behavior at all when I think town Magic prob reads behavior more than he has this game

My lynch pool is something like this.

Thoth

Shinning

Bullish

Magic

In no particular order. When we hit Bullish it will confirm if casey is telling the truth. Which is why I wanted to hit her yesterday

But thoth is the one ringing my bell. Mainly because the more I think about that claim could largely be a way to claim safely

Actually hitting bullish would not confirm casey. Guess they could he scum together or even bullish and i could be.

This is why I hate this poe and wanted to yeet her yesterday to confirm that list

Her being dead told us the factual aspects of it

Do y'all have much experience playing with Bullish to compare this game to? How long has he been around?

When we hit Bullish it will confirm if casey is telling the truth.

From our perspective, only the Casey flip will confirm that.

Years.

He usually is not like this. I would normally put him in the hardly post and not give a fuck about the game group. Hes active more than like shinning or casey but this feels diff compared to hos normal meta