Epstein's Island Mafia DP4

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:56 PM (post #209)

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

It verifies my results.

No. It. Does. Not

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:59 PM (post #211)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:56 PM (post #209)

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

It verifies my results.

No. It. Does. Not

I got a guilty on thoth. He flipped guilty.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:00 AM (post #212)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:59 PM (post #211)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:56 PM (post #209)

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

It verifies my results.

No. It. Does. Not

I got a guilty on thoth. He flipped guilty.

Which is quite easy to do when you’re scum.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:56 PM (post #209)

I disagree, I had a choice, kohai didn't. I forced the vote yesterday. With unvoting not being allowed, I was forcing the vote in #140. Helz called attention to that in #142 when he said "So to be clear- every single town has to vote together for town not to loose. Given Luna voted and can not unvote we now are obligated to pull this trigger."

I still feel like we're not talking about the same thing here. I'm talking about before your vote, when there was ample discussion of the choice between VTLing me and Kohai. All three of you were pretty much on the same page that, if you were lynching in that pool, I would be the pick. And it only would have taken two of you voting to get there. Kohai could have VTL'd me at any point after Helz made the decision to refocus on the three of us and pretty much been guaranteed to get his support. He basically said as much. So yeah, I believe he had the choice. He didn't take it. Why not?

The timeline doesn't match up to this. Kohai expressed an interest in pivoting attention back to Thoth before you voted. If your point is that he wouldn't have voted Thoth without you posting a vote first, then I'm surprised he made statements like:

"I think lynching Thoth is the best because in a w!Thoth we force scum to resolve Luna for us." #95

"The longer Thoth does nothing the more I wanna resolve him today" #137

Both posts happened before you posted the vote.

But both of those posts came after my claim at #20. Preferring Thoth once a cop has red-checked him isn’t an independent read, it’s following the result. And in between he was still floating “Thoth is the real cop. The core point doesn’t depend on how Kohai voted anyway. The only person who decided to give up Thoth is whoever created the guilty on him. If Kohai is scum, he was reacting to a result he couldn’t dispute. If I’m scum, I invented it while a guilty on you, which you just agreed had a more than decent chance, was sitting right there.

You're changing the point now. Your argument was that your vote was the thing that triggered Kohai to suddenly turn on Thoth. Now you're saying that your Cop result forced him to turn on Thoth, despite multiple times pointing to how he was all over me and searching for a mislynch a lot of the time in between your Cop result and the vote.

The point is I had an oppertunity for a game winning mislynch and didn't take it. Thats the takeaway here.

And my point is, so did he.

It verifies my results.

Yes, and we've been over this, too.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:59 PM (post #210)

Im just being thorough and trying to adress everything. If you feel it;s getting repetitive I am happy to stop, just trying to make sure we have everything covered before the decision.

I'll do one more round of this. I've already written up some of my thoughts and changed things as we've been discussing it. There's no final decision yet.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 10:02 PM (post #213)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:00 AM (post #212)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:59 PM (post #211)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:56 PM (post #209)

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

It verifies my results.

No. It. Does. Not

I got a guilty on thoth. He flipped guilty.

Which is quite easy to do when you’re scum.

What would be easy to do as scum would be to follow helz and lynch outside of thoth if I was scum. I took the path of most resistance if I was scum here. Makes no sense.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:12 AM (post #216)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 10:02 PM (post #213)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:00 AM (post #212)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:59 PM (post #211)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:56 PM (post #209)

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

It verifies my results.

No. It. Does. Not

I got a guilty on thoth. He flipped guilty.

Which is quite easy to do when you’re scum.

What would be easy to do as scum would be to follow helz and lynch outside of thoth if I was scum. I took the path of most resistance if I was scum here. Makes no sense.

And that’s the point Whiteflame was making. Before your vote I easily could have set up a 1v1 between myself and wf and get Helz to support me.

I still feel like we're not talking about the same thing here. I'm talking about before your vote, when there was ample discussion of the choice between VTLing me and Kohai. All three of you were pretty much on the same page that, if you were lynching in that pool, I would be the pick. And it only would have taken two of you voting to get there. Kohai could have VTL'd me at any point after Helz made the decision to refocus on the three of us and pretty much been guaranteed to get his support. He basically said as much. So yeah, I believe he had the choice. He didn't take it. Why not?

My vote forced him into a decision yes, and I don't agree that it was imperative for him to vote before that. He needed exactly one of you or helz to vote outside of him and thoth, before they could quick hammer. When I voted that option was off the table. At that point, he could only realistically vote for me. Also I was the one who steered helz away from going outside that when I told him I would rather go for the 50/50 than the 33/33/33. I forced the situation that led to the one good lynch we had in the game.

You're changing the point now. Your argument was that your vote was the thing that triggered Kohai to suddenly turn on Thoth. Now you're saying that your Cop result forced him to turn on Thoth, despite multiple times pointing to how he was all over me and searching for a mislynch a lot of the time in between your Cop result and the vote.

I am not changing the point. Both things are true. My result is what put them into that situation in the first place, otherwise you were probably the intended lynch going into dp3. When I claimed my result that was temporarily off the table until Helz reintroduced the idea of lynching outside of the 50/50.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 10:14 PM (post #217)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:12 AM (post #216)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 10:02 PM (post #213)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:00 AM (post #212)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:59 PM (post #211)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:56 PM (post #209)

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

It verifies my results.

No. It. Does. Not

I got a guilty on thoth. He flipped guilty.

Which is quite easy to do when you’re scum.

What would be easy to do as scum would be to follow helz and lynch outside of thoth if I was scum. I took the path of most resistance if I was scum here. Makes no sense.

And that’s the point Whiteflame was making. Before your vote I easily could have set up a 1v1 between myself and wf and get Helz to support me.

Again you still would have needed another vote from either whiteflame or helz for that to happen. That was off the table as soon as I voted thoth preventing you from being able to quickhammer.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:24 AM (post #219)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 10:14 PM (post #217)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:12 AM (post #216)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 10:02 PM (post #213)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:00 AM (post #212)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:59 PM (post #211)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:56 PM (post #209)

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

It verifies my results.

No. It. Does. Not

I got a guilty on thoth. He flipped guilty.

Which is quite easy to do when you’re scum.

What would be easy to do as scum would be to follow helz and lynch outside of thoth if I was scum. I took the path of most resistance if I was scum here. Makes no sense.

And that’s the point Whiteflame was making. Before your vote I easily could have set up a 1v1 between myself and wf and get Helz to support me.

Again you still would have needed another vote from either whiteflame or helz for that to happen. That was off the table as soon as I voted thoth preventing you from being able to quickhammer.

And again before that vote there was plenty of discussion about voting outside Thoth and I easily could have forced a 1v1 between myself and Whiteflame.

And again before that vote there was plenty of discussion about voting outside Thoth and I easily could have forced a 1v1 between myself and Whiteflame.

Why would you do that? Thats retarded scum play when you already have town willing to hang themselves, let them vote and you quickhammer, which is what you were hoping to do. My vote forced your hand, you had to cut your loss with thoth and gamble in the endgame because I put you in a situation where you had to lol. When I voted your only option to end the game would have been to lynch me. Before that voting whiteflame prematurely you probably wouldnt have the support and the other three of us could have just voted thoth anyway.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:23 AM (post #218)

My vote forced him into a decision yes, and I don't agree that it was imperative for him to vote before that. He needed exactly one of you or helz to vote outside of him and thoth, before they could quick hammer. When I voted that option was off the table. At that point, he could only realistically vote for me. Also I was the one who steered helz away from going outside that when I told him I would rather go for the 50/50 than the 33/33/33. I forced the situation that led to the one good lynch we had in the game.

I agree that your vote forced a decision. Again, that's not my point. He had the votes before that to mislynch me. There are several posts where Helz confirms he wanted to lynch among the three of us. He confirmed that I was the most sus of the three of his from his perspective. If Kohai had voted, Helz likely would have gone along with him. Kohai had a long stretch of time when you weren't posting, he could have done it then. He didn't have to start turning back to considering Thoth, which he did in post #95 (https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?page=4&comment_number=95). That was almost 2 hours before you returned and started posting again.

So, again, why didn't he just VTL me and get it over with if he was scum?

I am not changing the point. Both things are true. My result is what put them into that situation in the first place, otherwise you were probably the intended lynch going into dp3. When I claimed my result that was temporarily off the table until Helz reintroduced the idea of lynching outside of the 50/50.

Even with your result, both Kohai and Helz were considering my lynch well into the DP. I was the intended lynch for a good stretch in the middle of it. Did the result shift attention? Absolutely. Did it stay there and there was never any consideration of my lynch because of it? No, clearly not.

I agree that your vote forced a decision. Again, that's not my point. He had the votes before that to mislynch me. There are several posts where Helz confirms he wanted to lynch among the three of us. He confirmed that I was the most sus of the three of his from his perspective. If Kohai had voted, Helz likely would have gone along with him. Kohai had a long stretch of time when you weren't posting, he could have done it then. He didn't have to start turning back to considering Thoth, which he did in post #95 (https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?page=4&comment_number=95). That was almost 2 hours before you returned and started posting again.

So, again, why didn't he just VTL me and get it over with if he was scum?

Like I said to kohai, in that situation you want to wait for someone else to lead that, that way he doesn't risk looking scummy if you guys end up changing your mind and voting thoth with me. The deicison wasn't clearly made to lynch outside of me and thoth, even though helz was puushing him. I think he was waiting for one of you or helz to pull the trigger, me pulling the trigger forced his hand and took that off the table.

Even with your result, both Kohai and Helz were considering my lynch well into the DP. I was the intended lynch for a good stretch in the middle of it. Did the result shift attention? Absolutely. Did it stay there and there was never any consideration of my lynch because of it? No, clearly not.

My point is my result and subsequent push on thoth and being the first to vote DID actually change that outcome. You are alive to make this decision because I enabled that with my result.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:44 AM (post #223)

Like I said to kohai, in that situation you want to wait for someone else to lead that, that way he doesn't risk looking scummy if you guys end up changing your mind and voting thoth with me. The deicison wasn't clearly made to lynch outside of me and thoth, even though helz was puushing him. I think he was waiting for one of you or helz to pull the trigger, me pulling the trigger forced his hand and took that off the table.

I think you're underestimating just how long this discussion went on, how clearly onboard Helz was, and his own statement (that he restated and reenforced with your vote) that we have to be on the same page with the lynch. Helz was leading that charge, and for a good stretch, both Kohai and I were onboard to follow that lead. Is it possible Kohai was just nervous and unwilling to take the first step to ensure it? I guess, but man, it's hard to believe. It's even harder to believe that he'd initiate the transition to refocus on Thoth rather than try to get Helz to take that first step if you're right.

My point is my result and subsequent push on thoth and being the first to vote DID actually change that outcome. You are alive to make this decision because I enabled that with my result.

I'm not arguing that your vote didn't directly lead to the lynch on Thoth, man. I don't know why you keep making that same argument. And I've also several times recognized that, yes, you'd have to have chosen to bus your partner. Again, I believe that's true for both you and Kohai. The difference is that you would have had to actively engineer circumstances to that end, whereas Kohai would just have had to use the direction that Helz was taking things and post a vote when the opportune moment came.

Anyway, it's almost 1 AM and I'm feeling pretty exhausted. I'll give Luna the last word. I'll read it, then I'm making a call. I already have most of my thoughts written out, I just have to decide based on all that info who my lynch choice is.

I think you're underestimating just how long this discussion went on, how clearly onboard Helz was, and his own statement (that he restated and reenforced with your vote) that we have to be on the same page with the lynch. Helz was leading that charge, and for a good stretch, both Kohai and I were onboard to follow that lead. Is it possible Kohai was just nervous and unwilling to take the first step to ensure it? I guess, but man, it's hard to believe. It's even harder to believe that he'd initiate the transition to refocus on Thoth rather than try to get Helz to take that first step if you're right.

This entire point just works in my favor though, considering I essentially suggested derailing it. That said I still think that in his spot its better to be the hammerer after you or helz forced the decision. Doesn't make a lot of sense to risk voting when you can't unvote, just for them to change their mind. I am sure he was frustrated that you waffled the decision to vote outside of me and thoth before it was too late.

I'm not arguing that your vote didn't directly lead to the lynch on Thoth, man. I don't know why you keep making that same argument. And I've also several times recognized that, yes, you'd have to have chosen to bus your partner. Again, I believe that's true for both you and Kohai. The difference is that you would have had to actively engineer circumstances to that end, whereas Kohai would just have had to use the direction that Helz was taking things and post a vote when the opportune moment came.

Again I just disagree that this was the optimal decision from his POV. I think kohai is patient and waiting for his oppertunity to hammer, this patience is replicated in the fact that he didn't immediately vote me when the vanillizer flipped the way I vote him. It was obvious to me you were town, and he actually tried arguing that this was a point against me, as if it wasn't obvious you were town at this point. Kohai always kept his options open, and was patiently waiting for his oppertunity the whole time. He even left it open that he could hammer you today if for some reason I was a dumb idiot and voted you instead.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 10:55 PM (post #225)

Anyway, it's almost 1 AM and I'm feeling pretty exhausted. I'll give Luna the last word. I'll read it, then I'm making a call. I already have most of my thoughts written out, I just have to decide based on all that info who my lynch choice is.

Really hope you make the right one. Regardless, GG either way,

Alright, ending this for better or worse.

VTL: Lunatic

If I'm wrong, GG Kohai, you got me.

As for the explanation, yep, I wrote a lot. Had to get this all on the page before I felt at all comfortable with it.

So there are three major considerations I have going into this decision:

1. Claims
2. Behavior relating to Thoth and attempts to mislynch
3. The value of the Thoth bus

Claims are the easiest out of these, so I’ll get that out of the way first. They favor Kohai, it’s pretty straight up. Part of that is having a confirmed role - we know he’s Popular - and part of that is the very early claim, but as I’ve already covered, it’s also about the structure of the game. Note that’s structure, not balance. I’m not going to claim I know which roles must exist. I do, however, see the symmetries between the roles from Thoth and the Doc/BP/Tracker/Watcher roles, and no such roles are in evidence to support the existence of a Cop. I still don’t really buy a possible Popular + Blackmailer + Lawyer, since those three don’t fit well with Epstein or Dershowitz, so I’d have to buy Luna’s scenario where the Singer and Vanillaizer are counters to his Cop specifically, and I just don’t. And it’s not just that. I don’t buy the unlimited Cop, especially not for a game fashioned by Savant and Pie. I checked back through their games and they’ve maxed out at a 1X Cop on a JOAT in all previous games. It doesn’t help that I believe I’m the only one to give a scum player a Popular role on top of one or more active roles, it’s not a common setup.

Behavior gets a lot trickier because I think both sides have points in their favor and against them. Kohai’s turn towards a townread on Thoth looks better after looking over his links, but not a lot. There’s only a little game solving in the first two, and it’s nothing stand-out. Just an odd basis for a townread. The turn towards a sus over the course of the remainder of DP2 seems more genuine and thought out. Luna’s perspective is more consistent, sussing Thoth pretty late in DP1 and largely maintaining that due to a lack of posting and some behavioral concerns. I still think it’s odd he didn’t follow up on his questions to Thoth and I don’t like his defense of not doing so, but he’s right that, if he did Cop him guilty, that’s a solid follow-up. I give Luna the edge here.

In terms of attempts to mislynch, there are differences between the sides, but the main distinction is direction and focus. Kohai was on more continuously. He was considering a broad assortment of potential pairings throughout the first 3 DPs and kept reconsidering his picks. I can see a world in which he was doing this to draw attention away from himself and Thoth and try to secure mislynches, though he’s not super consistent in his efforts to do so. By contrast, while Luna was more focused in his sus of Thoth, particular in DP2 and DP3, he admits that he largely just set it aside for DP2 to consider the 1v1 the rest of us were on. He was also on the same mislynch so many of us chose for Shining. They weren’t independent efforts to secure a mislynch, more just going with the flow, but I could see him as scum or town just using momentum to get a lynch. Basically, both of them look behaviorally middle of the road.

As for the value of the Thoth bus, I do think Kohai had an independent reason to tell Thoth to pretend he was Blackmailed (Luna’s red check). So I started looking back at DP3, mainly looking at how Kohai’s susses changed post-Luna’s claim. If his goal was to just straight up focus on Thoth, he had an odd way of going about it, initially splitting his attention between me and Thoth, then shifting to the tinfoil hat theory to put attention on Luna, then refocusing on me for a bit before returning to Thoth well after he claimed he’d been Blackmailed. He’s kind of all over the place. Maybe that was the aim, to draw attention wherever he could and pounce when the opportunity came, but dude was basically in the same place as Helz during their discussion and actively sussing me. It wouldn’t have taken more than a vote on me from Kohai to secure that lynch, so it was a confounding decision for scum Kohai to make.

By contrast, I agree with Luna that, if he was scum, the decision to get a red check on his partner closed off some very plausible routes to a mislynch on me in particular. He had the opportunity early on in the DP and Kohai had suggested he might go along with it, though he was also placing attention on the unclaimed players, namely Luna and Thoth. It doesn’t read as an automatically slam dunk case that would have converted into a mislynch, but throwing it away by claiming a red check on his partner would be particularly odd.

So both players had the opportunity to get the mislynch, and both of them pivoted to focus on Thoth. Luna would have had to claim Cop and use it specifically to bus his partner, while Kohai had a lot of the discussion with Helz to find himself in an opportune position to push a mislynch and just kept holding off from doing it despite sussing me multiple times and getting Helz on a similar page. I agree with Luna that the fact that he had the opportunity to engineer things and a claim on the table he could have used to do so is a point in his favor, but it’s not as big of a difference as he makes it out to be.

Overall, behaviorally, I think Luna’s more consistent, and to pull out that Cop claim only to use it against his own partner would have been a major loss with the hope that he could get me or Helz on his side in the final DP. I think Kohai’s claim makes more sense and while his behavior isn’t entirely off-base, there are some concerning edges to it even while I can’t reconcile his decision to pivot back towards Thoth after getting what looked like a feasible opportunity for a lynch on me. Both of you made decisions that don’t make sense if you’re scum. Both of you had obvious missed opportunities.

In the end, yeah, I’m voting Luna. I’d by lying if I said that wasn’t anything to do with the claim itself, which I think still stands as the sharpest contrast between you two, but that’s not the only thing I’m considering. I’m also not making that decision based on Luna’s propensity to fake a Cop claim, though he clearly has a history of doing it. I’m voting Luna in part because I think he’d take the risk expecting Thoth to be the lynch regardless of the early susses on me believing that it was going to garner him near certain victory at this point. That changed when Helz flipped over his cards and he realized he couldn't bank on him in the final 3. I’d have to believe that Kohai’s too passive, too patient, and willing to shift to his partner at a time when he had the best opportunity to get a mislynch, and I just don’t buy that that’s him.

If you read this far, it either means I'm a total fuck up or I got this right. Hoping for the latter.

Good game everyone

Automated Vote Count

This system-generated vote count was posted on behalf of the main host.

Lunatic (2/2): Kohai (p#24), whiteflame (p#228)

Kohai (1/2): Lunatic (p#22)

Not Voting (0): None

With 3 players alive, the base elimination threshold is 2. Configured role modifiers may change vote power or an individual player's threshold. Day phase ends in 7 hours.
Day phase ends: (your local time).

⚠️ Lunatic has reached the lynch threshold. Hammer appears to be p#228.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/14/2026 at 1:13 AM (post #229)

Good game everyone

So, right or wrong?

GG. Yeah I was scum.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 1:15 AM (post #232)

GG. Yeah I was scum.

GG man. You had me sweating.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/14/2026 at 1:13 AM (post #231)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/14/2026 at 1:13 AM (post #229)

Good game everyone

So, right or wrong?

Yeah 100% on point

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/14/2026 at 1:15 AM (post #234)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/14/2026 at 1:13 AM (post #231)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/14/2026 at 1:13 AM (post #229)

Good game everyone

So, right or wrong?

Yeah 100% on point

Nice. GG. Never wanted DJT to win so bad.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/14/2026 at 1:15 AM (post #233)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 1:15 AM (post #232)

GG. Yeah I was scum.

GG man. You had me sweating.

Same. my G-d that was the toughest f3 ever.

Luna you played a great game.

Man I fought my ass off lol. I am really getting scum exhaustion. 4 games in a row is just too much. I get everyone takes a turn as scum, but I think you should re roll a game to avoid someone getting scum over and over again. 90% of the fun of this game is hunting scum, not having to lie and make cases to defend yourself. It's just getting old.

Alright I can finally go to sleep without this weighing on me.

I think Luna has over taken wf for most scum rands.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 11:16 PM (post #236)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/14/2026 at 1:15 AM (post #233)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 1:15 AM (post #232)

GG. Yeah I was scum.

GG man. You had me sweating.

Same. my G-d that was the toughest f3 ever.

Luna you played a great game.

You too man.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 1:16 AM (post #237)

Man I fought my ass off lol. I am really getting scum exhaustion. 4 games in a row is just too much. I get everyone takes a turn as scum, but I think you should re roll a game to avoid someone getting scum over and over again. 90% of the fun of this game is hunting scum, not having to lie and make cases to defend yourself. It's just getting old.

Fair points. And lol @ fake claiming cop 3 / 4 of those games