A-Llewella wrote:
Claiming jailed first just cuts out the potential of a Mafia being forced to claim first and getting it wrong easily solving the day mechanically. (Or they put their entire team on the line and we solve the game today with more information to play with)
Fair. I see your point
A-Llewella wrote:
Don't you mean Jailor should claim first and then get verified by a person confirming they were jailed?
No because mafia can fake claim jailor and fake their partner as tbe person they jailed.
We should claim jailed / not jailed first that way mafia can’t fake claim jailor
Have any of you been jailed since N1?
A-Bleys wrote:
Maiden, I have 1600 posts to read through before I have behavioral reads.
I think you misunderstand my concern. I understand that a jailor exists. What I am asking is if anyone has been jailed after the Mafia used their illusionist. I want to confirm that we know the jailor is not dead before we give a jailor claim a free green check.
This is actually a great point. Everyone needs to claim if they had been jailed or not.
I have not been jailed
A-Bleys wrote:
I'm just past 500 posts. Took an hour and a half break for the gym.
Any impressions so far
A-Bleys wrote:
Still present. Still working my way through DP1. All of the complaining about anonymous accounts inhibiting the ability to make behavioral reads is sad. Excising past individual incidents actually raises the bar for behavioral analysis. If anonymity were maintained, the game analysis would be more driven by behavioral reads, not less.
How far have you read
This post I keep coming back to:
https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/5k/amber-mafia---dp2?comment_number=535
Does Fiona put both their partners in there? This seems to indicate one of random / Llewella is scum
Where I’m at right now.
Living Players
A-Bleys
A-Brand
A-Caine
A-Llewella
A-Random
Conf Town
A-Deirdre
A-Caine(to myself)
POE
A-Bleys
A-Brand
A-Llewella
A-Random
I will re read the game tonight and re evaluate everyone in this Poe. Bleys was and is one of my strongest SRs. I’m not liking the way the replacement entered the game and the D1 from their predecessor is scummy af. Will do more detailed analysis later.
A-Brand Really should have been the D1 lunch but Flora retardedly detailed the wagon. I’m still at a loss with this slot. Their predecessor was objectively scummy but the replacement isn’t that bad.
A-Random - I had a very strong jailer read ok this slot and had him as strong town yesterday because of that jailer read. Knowing that they are not the jailer I need to re evaluate. I think there is a strong case to be made that I Mis cleared this slot. Oberon seemed adamant that whatever their blackmail request was has random’s finger prints all over it.
A-Llewella - need to fully re evaluate when I get home. I think their contributions so far this day phase has been fairly towny.
One thing to really note: Fiona’s play makes zero sense unless they were confident mafia could win. If they weren’t then their play was borderline game throwing.
A-Llewella wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role
So that's assuming we have an investigative role. If there is Trump Master in play and we're talking about everyone claiming today, then we can revisit this idea after they claim.
If they existed I do not know why they would not have outed D2. I could see withholding the role result they got but flatly claiming they used their 1 shot and X player is town would be the obvious play.
I would be very suspicious of such a claim today and would demand some wild seeding to buy it.
Agreed 100%
A-Deirdre wrote:
If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role
So that's assuming we have an investigative role. If there is Trump Master in play and we're talking about everyone claiming today, then we can revisit this idea after they claim.
That’s not what I’m saying.
we lynch scum. There’s a NK. This means the person they jailed is town
I think there’s a strong benefit to outing themselves now. We will have two confirmed town + another player confirmed to not be the lord of chaos.
A-Deirdre wrote:
Jailor must out their target.
Yeah, I 100% think that before hammer Jailor should out a target.
Question: why?
We know scum have no roles to interfere with wills at this point. Why not have the Jailor leave their target in their will? Worst case scenario, they die and reveal their target. Best case, they survive and tell us.
If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role
A-Deirdre wrote:
A-Caine wrote:
One potential problem: Mafia can waive NK to incriminate the person that was jailed.
If they do, scum are putting themselves in a bind. If we lynch correctly, we're at 4-1, so they've just doubled the number of remaining DPs. A couple of games back when I was scum, I waived the NK in an attempt to avoid suspicion (and also draw attention to the claimed Vig), and it worked for a bit, but I was sussed out anyway. POE's a bitch and scum have to know that decision would be playing with fire. I welcome them to make it, though, drag this thing out, bring it down to a final 3 and see what happens.
This is also true. Lots of WIFOM.
A-Bleys wrote:
A-Caine wrote:
One potential problem: Mafia can waive NK to incriminate the person that was jailed.
That's only a problem if we successfully lynch. There's still value in setting a jail target up in case we mislynch.
True.
i do think jailor should out themselves. I really thought it was random due to how Flora spoke about them
One potential problem: Mafia can waive NK to incriminate the person that was jailed.
A-Deirdre wrote:
I'm still a bit hesitant, but I understand the logic for outing the Jailor at this point. If they successfully Jailed someone, that will at least indicate that their target was not the new Lord of Chaos. It will also give us another townlock.
Agree
I agree we should mass claim. Jailor must out their target.
A-Bleys wrote:
I realize now that the mod did not make an announcement and it's possible that reading between the lines is difficult, so I will make it painfully clear. I am a new replacement to the game. I am not the same player who originally used this account. That is why I need time to catch up. Thank you for your patience.
Welcome. Can you claim?
A-Random wrote:
At work all day. Anyway that knows me irl knows I started a new job and im busy. Which is why im not posting a lot and glancing. The Oberon push was two fold. Will have an actual updated read list tonight.
Congrats on your new job
But I think there is scum between lew and Caine.
Will go ahead and say im VT for poe purposes and for people to chew on. If you re read my dp1. I bread crumbled this heavily and its why I was dead set on lynching in the vanilla lane because I didnt see two vanilla and myself immediately being possible.
I honestly thought you were the jailer based on how Flora spoke about you in their last will. This is why I was defending you yesterday. I will need to re eval and make sure I didn’t misclear you.
I do think we need to out the jailer. The NK isn't a surprise if the jailer can protect wf. Gerald was hard pushing whoever the lynch was last dp, forget the name but to me he was bleeding town. So if scum can't kill wf. They go to the next most town read person. Gut is saying caine but want to iso that Oberon wagon and people that agreed with it. Was fine with either target last dp and I do think that scenario was possible given how magic plays. But outside of that, there is a lot of info on counter wagons and who entertains them
Agree. The jailer has until end of day to pick a target.
A-Bleys wrote:
Fair enough. I am doing to delve into the past thoroughly in solitude, lest the Maiden Llewella grow more upset that my 50 minutes in this world is insufficient to have such familiarity with the stage of current events as she possesses herself.
You’re making it incredibly difficult to find you as town. If you’re town you need to actually do more than speaking in riddles. Actually do something.
FWIW I have a very strong particular read on random but would rather not reveal what that read is and why
A-Bleys wrote:
Hello, I am the one known as Bleys. I am not the Bleys that was. I am the Bleys that will be. My memories are as yet unclear. With time and meditation I will surely remember the past and aide you in the saving on this kingdom. My task was made clear, but the circumstances I was to arrive into remain shrouded in a deep fog. While I search my memories, it would be of great benefit if you may all introduce yourselves and individually describe to me the events of the past months.
hey! Do you have any reads?
A-Deirdre wrote:
I guess it doesn't matter, though. If we mislynch this DP, then it's game over anyway. If we lynch correctly, there will be only one scum so jailing them would still be a red check.
Yeah This is why I think the jailor should out themselves.
I have a very strong jailor read on a particular player but don’t want to say who or why yet
Hold up let me check something
Mag,
if the godfather is dead does one mafia member become the new godfather and is assigned the NK or can any mafia submit the NK?
This is also worth noting
Description: You are a noble Amberite in charge of a wing of the castle dungeon, discreetly detaining suspects and gathering information on behalf of the Crown.
Ability: Pick a target during the DAY to jail. They will be removed from all chats for that night, be roleblocked, and become immune to all night attacks. You gain a one-night anonymous night chat with your captive.
Once per game, you may optionally execute your captive, killing them.
Jailing is a perfect roleblock, meaning that it roleblocks roles that are normally immune to roleblock.
If a mafia member is jailed then the team will know and the one who isn’t jailed can just submit the NK. Ergo town has no way of stopping the NK
A-Llewella wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
I flagged that Lord of Chaos mechanic earlier, but I don’t understand how it’s still in play or why specifically killing the Illusionist results in the Blackmailer getting an extra charge. My reading of the role is that you have to be the Lord of Chaos and the last scum left alive to get the charge. This would satisfy neither of those requirements unless the Blackmailer somehow inherits the Lord of Chaos role. If I missed something about that, please point it out.
I’ll look through your reads later.
The way I am reading it is that the GodFather mechanic gets passed on.
'if' there are 3 mafia
GF dies D2. One of the two remaining becomes GF. No big deal
Today we have Blackmailer + Illusionist, eliminating specifically Illusionist promotes Blackmailer to GF.
The Blackmailer getting +1 charge of Blackmail/Kill is something to keep in mind. Thats the potential
I could be reading this wrong. A lot of things going on there at once. But I figured its worth putting it in everyones minds and openly talking about now for a few reasons.
I think these are good points. The problem is if we ML today there’s a strong chance we lose on the spot.
this is MyLo so we need to be extremely careful with our votes
We have the mech and the Poe to win the game
A-Deirdre wrote:
No idea why I'm still alive. Had a whole will written out and ready to go, too. Guess I'll have to save that for later.
Yeah this is a very surprising NK.
By the by, the new post is from One Piece.
So we've got 6 players left, which includes our Jail Officer. We now know that there are two scum left - the Blackmailer, given how Oberon died, and the Illusionist, given Julian's Janitored flip. So at this point, it's either 4-2 or 3-2-1, and I highly doubt the latter. Thankfully, both are effectively Vanilla now, so they just have an NK left. Note: that rules out a Disguiser and confirms that the Jail Officer is not the Interrogator, otherwise scum would have 4 players and this game would already be over.
Excellent analysis. I think this proves Julius town.
As for how to proceed from here, I'm a little hesitant to have the Jail Officer out themselves yet, though that might be necessary eventually. To start, going to need a claim from Bleys now that he's a hydra.
I understand where you’re coming from here. If we lynch scum and no NK then that functions as a red check. If there is a NK then that is functionally a green check.
