Fuck wrong account. My point remains
Fuck wrong account. My point remains
Also does anyone find it odd that he never asks Fiona who he really is and talks about him like he knows he’s Mag1c? Now that’s a TMI slip!
I'm about to sign off for shabbat but wanted to make sure I check in and post this first
The first thing to point out is how wishy washy his reads have been on my slot. He knows I'm an easy ML and wants to use me to fulfill his win condition. The entire day 1 he called me town. Just yesterday he stated:
Actually thats wrong. Mafia would be motivated not to lynch Oberon.
Caine is prob a town lock and stupid
And also:
Tbf I asked him could we discuss it and he told me yes
But for mod banned login. I think this clears Gerald and Caine. Fully suspect mafia were bitching at this. Want to look at who was opposed to it and for reasons I cannot say. Im putting my vote there when I get home
So how did he go from this to suddenly sussing me? There's no clear progression on this. I am an easy ML target and he knows this.
While the Fiona wagon was strong and starting to pick up team:
Automated Vote Count
This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.
A-Fiona (3/5): A-Caine (p#11), A-Gerard (p#55), A-Deirdre (p#198)
A-Brand (1/5): A-Oberon (p#93)
Not Voting (5): A-Bleys, A-Brand, A-Fiona, A-Llewella, A-Random
With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day phase ends in 2 days, 4 hours.
He attempts to derail this by trying to turn attention towards Oberon.
Keep in mind that Oberon himself beleived his blackmail challenge had Random's fingerprints all over it.
His reasoning on voting Oberon is just so outlandish it can never come from town:
My assumption with this is he is going to use the ability to kill himself so he flips dead and takes over someone's account. If he was being mod killed he would be mod killed now. If mago does not confirm this publicly he should be shot ASAP
This is such a laughable argument. This was after we already knew about the janitor and blackmailer.
Look in their ISO and search for Fiona. The only place it appears is at the end of d2 when he voted him after he was the certain lynch.
Look at Fiona's ISO: https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/iso?userids=69f0e54cdee4aca7a84cff90&postids=69f791e90b2f89d5f87f662a&postids=69f18ffd5a6154efe02ff531&sort=asc
There's very little discussion about Random. Both were clearly avoiding each other. This does not come from town.
A-Bleys wrote:
In the 220s my question is, if Random blackmailed Oberon, he would know the condition tied to the blackmail and he would know if it was broken already. Why would he push to lynch someone who he knows will die?
To save his partner? Why else would he derail the lynch
A-Bleys wrote:
PC is set up but running very slowly. Might need to make sure everything is wired properly. I'll deal with that later. For now I'm going to be present in the thread if anyone has questions while I continue my read of DP2
if you had to vote now who would you vote?
Just to confirm no jailer I’m wondering if it’s best to now claim jailed / not jailed
So I’m guessing since no one claimed jailer then Julius was probably the jailer
A-Brand wrote:
It's also why I was sus of the other VT claims. I wasn't expecting such a Vanilla-heavy game.
Same. Honestly a vanilla heavy game is kinda refreshing
A-Deirdre wrote:
To counterbalance the illusionist unless I am misunderstanding the set up
I guess that's possible, but I doubt it. I think the goal of the Coroner is to counter the Traitor, and it makes the Illusionist kind of pointless.
Fair.
A-Llewella wrote:
This is also why I so strongly thought there would be a Godfather btw.
There was. It was Fiona. Read the flip as Godfather
A-Deirdre wrote:
I’d honestly be very surprised if enthrone left was VT and there wasn’t a coroner.
The Coroner assumes a Traitor is in the game. We know there isn't one because we know the roles of all 3 scum. So what purpose would a Coroner serve?
To counterbalance the illusionist unless I am misunderstanding the set up
A-Deirdre wrote:
And yes, I claimed Prince while reference a post seeding my pronoun thing for being given a female flavor but a male role.
Technically the Coroner is listed as a Prince as well, though we now know that's not a mechanic in this game and it wouldn't matter anyway since they're both town, but yes.
I’d honestly be very surprised if enthrone left was VT and there wasn’t a coroner.
VTL: A-Random
I’ll give more of an analysis when I get home from work. I wanna put my vote and pressure here for now.
1) I really dislike his constant angle shooting, OGI, and blatant rule violations
2) His progression on my slot screams wolf trying to get an easy ML
3) Not a fan on how he tried to de rail the Fiona wagon yesterday
4) Oberion was convinced his blackmail had his finger prints all over it.
Mikal wrote:
Prob won't have time to catch up like I want.
wrong account lol
A-Bleys wrote:
Absolutely there is. We need to lynch scum not 3p.
All you are saying is the we need to lynch scum. The consideration of 3p is an added, superfluous step. I'm still waiting for you to explain to me why town would think about the game not ending when Mafia has a majority.
I already answered this question. The consideration of 3p is absolutely not superfluous.
I hope everyone lieks the new navigation bar.
That said, I'm going to be going to bed soon. I have an extremely busy weekend so I will try and post as much as I will probably not be as active this dp as i was yesterday
Can you explain your read progression on me yesterday?
https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/5k/amber-mafia---dp2?page=10&comment_number=295
I went from being a town lock to being in your Poe.
A-Bleys wrote:
Counter point: If we lynch 3p and the NK isn’t stopped then town loses.
6 players alive
assuming 3p
2 scum v 1 tp v 3 town
If we lynch a 3p we still lose.
This works towards my point. There's no reason for town to be considering 3p right now.
Absolutely there is. We need to lynch scum not 3p.
A-Bleys wrote:
A-Caine wrote:
Anyone notice the inconsistency here
1) Caine scummy for not considering 3p in his calculation
2) Cain scummy for considering 3p in MyLo.
Let’s play a game.
One of these things is not like the other. One of these things doesn’t belong
can you guess which thing is not like the other
before I finish my song
Right, let's go more in depth.
1) Mafia doesn't, on a general level, care about 3p when calculating numbers.
2) The particularity of the game not ending when Mafia has a majority is such an extreme consideration that it breaks the mold.
I posit that (1) occurred naturally in the mafia chat, and (2) arose when questioned about (1)
Counter point: If we lynch 3p and the NK isn’t stopped then town loses.
6 players alive
assuming 3p
2 scum v 1 tp v 3 town
If we lynch a 3p we still lose.
Anyone notice the inconsistency here
1) Caine scummy for not considering 3p in his calculation
2) Cain scummy for considering 3p in MyLo.
Let’s play a game.
One of these things is not like the other. One of these things doesn’t belong
can you guess which thing is not like the other
before I finish my song
A-Bleys wrote:
3p have their own win conditions which may not end the game when mafia has a majority. For example there could still be an executioner with a target left. The game will continue
other 3p has to be the last person standing.
And this is exactly the kind of scenario I don't expect a townie to think about.
Why not? These scenarios are absolutely real.
Rather than playing hope mafia it is better to consider the worst case scenario for town.
A-Bleys wrote:
The problem with this thinking is that mafia don’t know if there’s a 3p or not. The balance of power could have easily have been 6 v 1 v 3. And honestly there’s still a strong possibility there’s a third party left.
That's simply not a flaw in my logic. Mafia only needs to get a majority. When they run internal calculations they don't need to consider third party. It's only mafia v the field.
3p have their own win conditions which may not end the game when mafia has a majority. For example there could still be an executioner with a target left. The game will continue
other 3p has to be the last person standing.
A-Bleys wrote:
A-Caine wrote:
I've already responded to the alleged "scum slip." The calculation was based on the worst case scenario for town. I was not considering third parties in my calculation.
I don't think that answer is responsible to my concerns. The slip isn't that you know there aren't third parties, it's that you simultaneously acknowledged 9 players remaining and a 7v3 scenario. For one, mafia more readily dismisses third parties than town in internal calculations (the opposite is true externally). Second, there is dissonance from premeditatation which is a scum tell.
The problem with this thinking is that mafia don’t know if there’s a 3p or not. The balance of power could have easily have been 6 v 1 v 3. And honestly there’s still a strong possibility there’s a third party left.
Automated Vote Count https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/57/amber-mafia?comment_number=233
This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.
A-Brand (3/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Llewella (p#222), A-Bleys (p#232)
A-Martin (2/7): A-Flora (p#199), A-Caine (p#203)
A-Llewella (1/7): A-Brand (p#6)
Not Voting (6): A-Deirdre, A-Fiona, A-Gerard (p#174), A-Julian, A-Martin (p#171), A-Oberon
With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 2 days, 23 hours.
With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Bleys - I really like their contributions so far. Like Brand I'm having the same issue: Their predacessor was scummy but I find their contributions to be very towny.
One thing I noticed is this post here: https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/57/amber-mafia?page=8&comment_number=232
I really hated the reasoning behind their vote. This was when the Brand wagon was already starting to gain steam. Something to keep in mind.
A-Bleys wrote:
Just got back from the barber. I will likely be heading out soon to watch the game, but I'm going to get started on DP2.
I want to have thoughts on Flora's will, but given the nature of the player I feel that it could be filled with deliberate misinformation about at least 1 player that will be able to be revealed later.
I am curious as to why Julian was killed. They weren't threatening and their reads were minimal. Honestly, and take this very loosely, it slightly makes me suspicious of Llewella. I say that because it's the type of NK I would do. I like to kill off weaker or less active players because I want a challenge interacting with the more engaged and accurate players. I feel like Llewella would view things the same way. There's nuances such as Llwella not having final say over who to kill, etc, etc, but I don't want to delve too deep into them because this is more of a note of interest than an actual read.
Out the gate I really don't like 18 from Caine. There is an immediate minimizing of their presence on the Flora wagon the entire DP and a shifting of responsibility for the Martin mislynch from themself. I really don't like 17 either, tbh. It reads as trying-to-be-subtle-WIFOM.
There may be something to be said about Caine opening on Fiona. With that said, it feels to me like the Fiona lynch was inevitable. But my valuation of Caine's vote is necessarily filtered through hindsight. The biggest issue I'm having with Caine as I reach 33 is that they are using the replacement of the Brand slot to not actually make meaningful reads on Brand. 34 just reads more of "none of this is my fault."
103 Here comes the backtrack from Random that I have been waiting for. I'm eager to get to the part of the DP where they put into writing their new thoughts on Brand.
104
I lowkey wana read kohai as saying 7-3 as a scum slip but I think he's just dumb and seems like he can't count
Hold on. This actually might be gold from Random. This references 10 from Caine,
9 alive
we we 7 v 3
we have very little room for error
This very much reads as someone who has talked about and internalized that the game would be 7v3 going into the DP. They were so engaged with their plan and how to transition the game from 7v3 to 5v3 to winning, or 7v3 to 6v2 to 4v2 to winning that once the DP went up, they didn't adjust their alignment count for the town-sided NK that they weren't expecting.
I'm going to head out to watch the game now. I will be back later tonight and active tomorrow morning / early afternoon. I might post a bit on my phone while I'm out.
Right now I'm looking at Random, Caine, Brand, Llewella in that order. I'm pretty comfortable reading Llewella as town in that group, but that's the PoE.
I've already responded to the alleged "scum slip." The calculation was based on the worst case scenario for town. I was not considering third parties in my calculation.
A-Brand wrote:
A-Caine wrote:
One thing giving me pause is this post
https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/5k/amber-mafia---dp2?page=18&comment_number=535
does wolf Fiona really put both partners in this list? The only explanation for such retarded play is if scum were confident they can win. I do fear we MIs cleared someone so I want to go over this game with a fine tooth comb
It's not impossible that Fiona put both teammates in the list. They were basically just trolling by EoD. That being said, Deirdre is the only player alive that I just can't see being scum at all (for obvious reasons). But I do instinctively agree that his list includes the scummiest three, which does make me wonder
Yeah. Doing some math here
6 alive
4 town v 2 scum
The problem mafia has is there is 1 confirmed town and if a jailor claims that’s two confirmed town. Mafia has only 3 possible MLs and if the jailor claims and is corroborated then 2 conf town leaving only 2 MLs available.
i don’t think w!Fiona would draw so much attention to their partners.
A-Llewella wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
We are really shooting ourselves in the foot as we feed scum info and ideas before they role claim.
If scum don’t know this much, I’d be shocked, but fair enough.
Sure, but they may not have considered that they could potentially claim Jailor without a CC and then we gotta debate if they are confirmed town or if the Mafia got a lucky shot off. I will be more suspicious of a "Last claiming player" situation claiming Jailor.
(That said pretty pretty please can we not say another word about about this very specific subject until people claim. Like very litterly not even one after this post until claims happen)
Agree. Perhaps claim pop corn style
A-Deirdre wrote:
A-Caine wrote:
A-Bleys wrote:
Maiden, I have 1600 posts to read through before I have behavioral reads.
I think you misunderstand my concern. I understand that a jailor exists. What I am asking is if anyone has been jailed after the Mafia used their illusionist. I want to confirm that we know the jailor is not dead before we give a jailor claim a free green check.
This is actually a great point. Everyone needs to claim if they had been jailed or not.
I have not been jailed
I haven’t either. I guess there is some chance that the first NK on Julian killed the Jailor, since their jailing of Pie should have happened before the NK resolved. If that’s the case, this is going to get dicey.
This is a strong possibility. Any competent jailor should have protected you.