Full claim
Full claim
A-Llewella wrote:
A-Flora wrote:
This whole post makes zero sense. What are you saying
That your plan arguing 33% chance of scum within pools does not look above random voting.
What do you mean?
That claims in this game are worthless to town for future analysis without role cops or trackers/lookouts/detectives to verify.
Speak for yourself. I proved to you how mechanical analysis won us the game.
That there is no mech crunch here I see and revealing VT's does help scum.
I never said everyone should reveal. I’m just saying get 3 people to claim. Idrc who. We already have 2. Get a third. Force them to say who they scumread or just get lynched. Easy.
A-Deirdre wrote:
What’s the other option? I mean it’s clearly high risk high reward right. If they yolo and go for a PR, they cruise for a couple of DPs. Or they get CCed and you immediately go down. Only a couple of people would yolo and Martin/Caine don’t strike me as those people
Or we just end up outing town players in groups of three until they get sufficient role info to avoid a CC. I get the basic premise that scum are less likely to claim a PR in this scenario, but that only lasts so long as we don't start outing too many PRs. I also get drawing some attention to Martin and Caine given that Vanilla is a clearer safe claim right now, even if I'm a little lost on any other factor that distinguishes them.
Correct, and by the end of today, we will have reads generated with everyone aligning with their preferred lynch. The alternative is getting a 4th claim. No one is saying keep it going till the end of the game. But statistically, it’s true.
You can also confirm in DM if you don’t want to go look for it
Waiting on an answer from Magoroth.
And that’s my point. Either way you have to consider the trade off. More claims or go with the tactic I described
I'm fine getting at least one more claim at this point, less fine with just lynching one of the VT claims straight up.
Ya, and that’s perfectly fine. I want a third claim too. I’d bet good money that it’s going to be Vanilla. I’ve been saying we need a third claim for a while
A-Gerard wrote:
A-Flora wrote:
A-Gerard wrote:
I’m not saying I know the vanilla claims are legit, I’m saying if we lynch them and they are town we learn basically nothing. Doesn’t even make sense as a default lynch. It’s an extremely lazy lynch and I’d rather lynch someone for a behavioral reason
I never said we just lynch the outright in a span of 5 minutes. Go back and read what I said. Make the three of them duke it out. That inherently generates reads. And I also said you can use behavior strategically in combination with my strategy. Your behaviorally strategy alone can’t be quantified. Mine there’s direct probability. It’s not “lazy.” It’s only lazy if they refuse to argue why they’re town and point us in a different direction.
Sounds like this strategy could be employed on anyone regardless of whether they are vanilla or not. Are you really picking them for vanilla? Or is it because of who operates the account lol?
I thought of this after they had claimed. And no, it can’t only be used on people who claim Vanilla. Idrc who operates account. I see that the odds are if scum are forced this early to claim ie if Caine or Martin are scum, they’re likely to claim Vanilla.
Also how do you force some one to FOS someone else for logic they don’t fundamentally already agree with?
What are you even talking about? If 3 people know they’re the targets, they have 2 options:
1) Explain why one of the other people should be lynched
2) Explain why someone outside of the two should be lynched.
It generates activity on their end, plus forces the rest of town to choose sides.
This whole plan is so bad that I struggle to believe you were capable of coming up with something this stupid and are town.
You saying it’s “bad” doesn’t mean it’s objectively bad. It’s objectively and statistically sound. The arguments you and Deidre have made, I’ve repudiated. You have failed to explain why the probability doesn’t make sense.
You have 2 options at this stage. Get a third claim and lynch out of the 3, with the third person most likely claiming Vanilla anyways, or get a fourth claim. Pick your poison.
A-Llewella wrote:
A-Flora wrote:
I want your thoughts on my strategy
(Cutting back to earlier)
Statistically the odds of scum claiming Vanilla are high. I’m going to stick to my strategy. You agreed with Caine. I just asked Martin to claim cause I thought they were someone else. But even assuming that half of town (let’s say 6) is VT and all 3 scum claiming Vanilla, you’re looking at a 33% chance of outright catching scum
So 12 players. Assuming 2-4 scum. 4 scum if scum team is nerfed with a lost wolf and weaker roles being 2+lost and neutral thats town sided. 3 otherwise.
Considering claim value we at best have a 1 shot alignment+role cop. Nothing else to verify movement and even citizens can visit. This makes the only value of claims coming from counter claims of specific roles sorting neutral/town pairings with externally conformable mechanics.
I do not see value in sorting VT claims as we have no ability to do so mechanically.
This whole post makes zero sense. What are you saying
A-Llewella wrote:
Not interested in for today:
Random- Good positions all around. Only concern I had was their level of confidence in #193
Gerard- The frustration dealing with me looked good enough for me to not consider them at all for D1
Martin- Very odd VT claim. Could be apathy. Enough original takes in their read wall they should not be the elemination
Deirde- Slippery one right there. I may never trust them but zero D1 interest
I want your thoughts on my strategy
A-Deirdre wrote:
If scum want to yolo and be caught, they can be my guest, I’ll take it. But taking that risk makes zero sense, especially when you can claim Vanilla and blend in this early. Keep in mind that I didn’t even reveal this strategy till after 2 people claimed Vanilla.
It's possible one or even both of them did go for the Vanilla claim as scum. I get that scum could have seen it as a low risk move. That being said, it's not like "claim Vanilla" or "YOLO" are the only two possibilities scum have for claiming this early.
What’s the other option? I mean it’s clearly high risk high reward right. If they yolo and go for a PR, they cruise for a couple of DPs. Or they get CCed and you immediately go down. Only a couple of people would yolo and Martin/Caine don’t strike me as those people
They don’t, Mago publically confirmed it
Didn't see the post, but I'll take your word for it.
You can also confirm in DM if you don’t want to go look for it
This is not true either. Mago confirmed that all the roles in the game have to be in the thread
Not according to Magoroth, apparently #49. Haven't asked him personally, though I trust that Gerard has.
He’s wrong. I specifically asked him in DP whether roles outside the list could be present and he said no.
And that’s why we limit claims to 3 today. Tomorrow the strategy can change depending on people claiming PRs. But this early in a game i don’t see why we inherently just keep looking for more claims. Brands wagon has stalled. Mine has accelerated, which is fine. I’m fine being the third person to claim and no one else, but that limits your options.
Don't see why 3 is the magic number. Is the idea then to necessarily lynch among this group because there might be a 1 in 3 chance of hitting scum within it?
I think it’s the sweet spot, but the 33% also factors a little into it.
I never said all Vanillas should out.
I apologize, you were responding to Brand who said it.
If the third person we sus claims a PR, it dramatically reduces their odds of being scum. Helps with POE either way.
I would agree that if someone claims a PR from within the group of town PRs, that would be strong evidence in their favor. I'm more hesitant to say that it should lead us to necessarily lynch one of the two claimed VTs as a result, which is where you're headed with this.
And that’s my point. Either way you have to consider the trade off. More claims or go with the tactic I described
A-Deirdre wrote:
Vanillas should absolutely in no circumstances out themselves. This just gives away who the PRs are.
I've now argued several times against mass claims. I'm pointing to an argument Flora made and responding to it, that's all.
I never said all Vanillas should claim. That’s just false lol
A-Caine wrote:
A-Gerard wrote:
I don’t understand your math on the vanilla thing. If there are three vanilla claims and they are actually vanilla and we just go through mislynching them to no avail, we help the mafia win con more than the town wincon. The very discussion of lynching vanillas makes it less likely it will be fake claimed as well.
I agree with this. A big problem: If we are in a setup where there's a significant number of VTs then the more people who claim VT the more likely it is that scum will be bold and claim a PR. The danger in that is we just blindly mislynch a bunch of VTs and misclear a claimed PR
I said we should limit claims to 3 today for a reason
A-Deirdre wrote:
I thought I was being pretty clear in my posts. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that in a 13 player game, there are 3 scum. Let’s also assume for the sake that out of the 10 remaining townies, 6 of them are Vanilla, which is a oretty liberal assumption. All the 6 Vanillas are going to claim that they’re vanilla and the 3 scum this early are gonna claim Vanilla cause otherwise they risk a CC. Then if we get 3 vanilla claims this early, probability wise 3/9 or 1/3 are scum prima facie. But we can take it a step further and force them to fight one another to help the rest of us generate reads. And worse case we read all 3 as town, but that still helps towards POE
So why are we assuming that scum will claim Vanilla? Like, I get it, that avoids a CC and there are obvious CC landmines in this game. That's a WIFOM reason for scum to claim Vanilla.
If scum want to yolo and be caught, they can be my guest, I’ll take it. But taking that risk makes zero sense, especially when you can claim Vanilla and blend in this early. Keep in mind that I didn’t even reveal this strategy till after 2 people claimed Vanilla.
That doesn't mean they will. I mentioned this earlier, but as far as I can tell, it wasn't stated that scum don't have access to fake claims.
They don’t, Mago publically confirmed it
We also know that roles can come from outside those stated in the "Setup" thread
This is not true either. Mago confirmed that all the roles in the game have to be in the thread
, or scum could simply refuse to out and wait for the pool of CCable roles to dwindle as more PRs are forced to claim and more Vanillas are eliminated in an attempt to find scum in that set.
And that’s why we limit claims to 3 today. Tomorrow the strategy can change depending on people claiming PRs. But this early in a game i don’t see why we inherently just keep looking for more claims. Brands wagon has stalled. Mine has accelerated, which is fine. I’m fine being the third person to claim and no one else, but that limits your options.
I see earlier that you suggested all Vanilla players should out themselves, so at least you're talking about generating a larger pool of Vanillas to lynch from rather than just lynching among the two players who have claimed.
I never said all Vanillas should out.
It's not a guarantee that we'll get scum to claim Vanilla, but I get where you're going with it if we assume they do claim VT. But as of right now, with the claims we have on the table, there is no 1/3 chance that either of the claimed Vanillas are scum, and I don't see how lynching either of them necessarily helps with POE anymore than selecting a widely sussed player who hasn't claimed.
If the third person we sus claims a PR, it dramatically reduces their odds of being scum. Helps with POE either way.
A-Julian wrote:
I’m debating between Llewela and Flora at this point. Both have stark contrasting behaviors if who there alias are is accurate.
Would you like to elaborate how? I’ve already explained it to Gerard why you can’t compare the previous game to this game
A-Deirdre wrote:
I’ve already explained fundamentally why last game is different compared to this game and how I could say/do whatever I wanted in that game. As for Ruyi Zhuan, everything I’ve done is NAI. There’s nothing about my Vanilla strategy that is scummy. A 33% chance this early in the game is great. I think your concern is the two players I’ve chosen, which is just paranoia. I townread one of them and scum read the other. You and everyone else can choose the third person if you’re not comfortable, but prima facia 1/3 are likely to be scum at the worst
I really don't get the math here. I've read back through your previous points about how you got down to that number of 33% and it's still not clear. Are you presuming that scum will all claim VT at this point? That there's 6 actual VTs? If you could lay out the scenarios you're thinking on here, that would help a good deal.
I thought I was being pretty clear in my posts. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that in a 13 player game, there are 3 scum. Let’s also assume for the sake that out of the 10 remaining townies, 6 of them are Vanilla, which is a oretty liberal assumption. All the 6 Vanillas are going to claim that they’re vanilla and the 3 scum this early are gonna claim Vanilla cause otherwise they risk a CC. Then if we get 3 vanilla claims this early, probability wise 3/9 or 1/3 are scum prima facie. But we can take it a step further and force them to fight one another to help the rest of us generate reads. And worse case we read all 3 as town, but that still helps towards POE
A-Gerard wrote:
I’m not saying I know the vanilla claims are legit, I’m saying if we lynch them and they are town we learn basically nothing. Doesn’t even make sense as a default lynch. It’s an extremely lazy lynch and I’d rather lynch someone for a behavioral reason
I never said we just lynch the outright in a span of 5 minutes. Go back and read what I said. Make the three of them duke it out. That inherently generates reads. And I also said you can use behavior strategically in combination with my strategy. Your behaviorally strategy alone can’t be quantified. Mine there’s direct probability. It’s not “lazy.” It’s only lazy if they refuse to argue why they’re town and point us in a different direction.
A-Gerard wrote:
I don’t understand your math on the vanilla thing. If there are three vanilla claims and they are actually vanilla and we just go through mislynching them to no avail, we help the mafia win con more than the town wincon. The very discussion of lynching vanillas makes it less likely it will be fake claimed as well.
And if they don’t fake claim vanilla, then the odds of being CCed skyrocket. No one is saying lynch all 3 one by one in a row. Today we lynch one. Tomorrow we get another claim, which will likely be Vanilla, and we reevaluate
Youre assuming that the two vanillas tho have claimed and the third that will claim are telling the truth. You have no way of knowing that and neither do I
A-Gerard wrote:
I know it's been mentioned a few times and I'm a bit lost on the aim of these "disguiser codes" and how they'll function. If we're doing something like that, we need everyone onboard and clear on their purpose, so if someone could clarify, that would be great.
So there is two different roles on the set up list that can physically take over a persons account and post as them. A scum role called the "disguiser" which is like a yakuza. They flip as Disguiser, but then basically possess the person they killed's account. Then there is a third party role called Rogue Ty'iga that takes over a persons account.
I wouldn’t even worry about the Yakuza/TP cause just based on posting style, we should be able to figure it out
So basically with all these "Identity theft roles" and the mod allowing cryptography to be used, the idea is you make an encrypted message using something like AES that only unlocks this with a code word. You put that code word in your will. If we suspect someone of being disguised, we can force them later to out this code word. If they cannot provide the code word, if proves they are not the original owner of that account and therefor scum.
Wills can be manipulated though
A-Gerard wrote:
Oberon & Flora - FoS. They are legit posting almost alike to this point. The same manner and in the same way. I really don’t understand the difference and I inherently FoS read that considering who these people could potentially be
If you want to start a wagon on Flora to see where it goes, I would join you. This might be one of the extremely rare occasions where we could do something with it. I think they have had a stark behavioral shift this game from the last game, and am getting Ruyi Zhuan vibes.
I’ve already explained fundamentally why last game is different compared to this game and how I could say/do whatever I wanted in that game. As for Ruyi Zhuan, everything I’ve done is NAI. There’s nothing about my Vanilla strategy that is scummy. A 33% chance this early in the game is great. I think your concern is the two players I’ve chosen, which is just paranoia. I townread one of them and scum read the other. You and everyone else can choose the third person if you’re not comfortable, but prima facia 1/3 are likely to be scum at the worst
I think the only big negative here would be risking one of the active players, but the later the game goes, the harder this person will be to get lynched if they are scum. Players like you me and Dierdre will slowly be picked off until it's just easy to manipulate people left.
A-Llewella wrote:
Town needs a train and counter train.
Concise focused posts.
So what are you going to do about it
A-Gerard wrote:
What are your thoughts on Llewella? Both general thoughts and specifically about 398
I have my reads in #358 and nothing has changed from that. I don’t see any attempt to genuinely scum hunt. My personal belief is to treat this individual objectively and ignore all the WIFOM. Just cause he said he was going to be like this, doesn’t mean he’s town. He’s obviously smarter than that. If he wants to take the back seat and not do anything while being active, it’s just blatant manipulation and objectively likely to come from scum.
A-Oberon wrote:
Real talk for 1 second: the inactive rule probably finds scum at a higher rate than using my reads.
What do you mean by this?
A-Gerard wrote:
A-Flora wrote:
A-Gerard wrote:
Statistically a 33% chance is better than we’ll get. The alternative is pushing Brand, but he’s basically AWOL. I’m fine getting the 3rd claim from him
This strategy gives a pass to everyone else not psoting and participating and kind of banks on a hail mary prayer, I don't see where this 33% bs is coming for either, are we pulling this out of our ass? We have time left, lets force people to post!
I talked about the math earlier. Let’s assume at most there are 6 real Vanillas and 3 scum. So any group of 3 players, 33% are likely to be scum fundamentally.
https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExaWd4anlvdzF1NDJmODNoYWVscHVka3k3OGRnMHdnajkzbmlsNzl3bCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3o6Yg4GUVgIUg3bf7W/giphy.gif
Lets vote on behavior.
Im fine with that too, though a combo seems to be in order. I think Brands is just doubling down right now. Happy to lynch him here
A-Brand wrote:
I'm thinking the best massclaim may be to have everyone say whether or not they are vanilla and leave the specific power roles unstated.
This is just 🤦♂️
A-Gerard wrote:
Statistically a 33% chance is better than we’ll get. The alternative is pushing Brand, but he’s basically AWOL. I’m fine getting the 3rd claim from him
This strategy gives a pass to everyone else not psoting and participating and kind of banks on a hail mary prayer, I don't see where this 33% bs is coming for either, are we pulling this out of our ass? We have time left, lets force people to post!
I talked about the math earlier. Let’s assume at most there are 6 real Vanillas and 3 scum. So any group of 3 players, 33% are likely to be scum fundamentally.
VTL: A-Brand
A-Gerard wrote:
A-Oberon wrote:
It’s hard with this player, but I think the strategy is to avoid more than 3 people claim and POE the Vanillas. It makes it harder and harder for scum to claim Vanilla
This is a good balanced strategy.
Really? If they are just town, its just free mislynches. Kind of dumb. Let's engage our brains and lynch with at least the barest minimum of behavioral analysis please.
Statistically a 33% chance is better than we’ll get. The alternative is pushing Brand, but he’s basically AWOL. I’m fine getting the 3rd claim from him
A-Julian wrote:
Some of the frustration is true. I also think the mix of new features + testing is kind of dragging the game down
Iso me and read my idea and tell me what u think
A-Julian wrote:
I thought that Oberon was a nice sweet cherry Pie but them being a wizard makes sense. Everything else makes sense
Im offended that you couldn’t tell cherry Pie from Harry Potter
When u wake up?
A-Gerard wrote:
Small chance that Fiona is the T-rex and Random the bull
So the Russian has already posted? Man I’m really bad at this
A-Julian wrote:
The problem with that is that someone could very easily fake it til they make it. Plus how do you know they’re telling the truth
Just put it behind a cipher
A-Gerard wrote:
Prince of Chaos (Disguiser)
Description: You are a Chaosite from the royal family, with shapeshifting abilities and the ability to walk the black road the straddles the multiverse.
Ability: Attack a player at night, killing them. You will disguise yourself as them, taking over their account. They will flip with your account’s name, their own role, and your last will. One charge.
Slot: Killing
Check out this role in the set up thread. This is a potential scum role. Holy shit this role is actually OP. And I got hate for including a Yakuza or a Tailor lmao. This role is way more bastard and chaotic. That said, if this role exists it needs to be executed with precision the likes I think only a small few people are capable of pulling off, so in dp2 and onward I will by hyper analyzing people's posting styles for consistency. You should do the same with me.
It should be obvious based on how people talk. But just in case, everyone should say a word or a phrase that means something only to them and then tomorrow reveal what it means