A-Gerard wrote:
This is ironic coming from you when you scumread me because I didn’t fight. Selective memory.
What game are you referencing lol. I never thought that about you. You always fight tooth and nail, town or scum. When was the last time you were ever even lynched?
Lol you were the one who lynched me in Madoka
A-Gerard wrote:
So Flora is claiming Vanilla, after shoving mech analysis all day phase that we should lynch within vanillas, but somehow thinks he should be exempt from that same logic. He should be happy we are testing his hypothesis by lynching him. Why is throwing a tantrum at the prospect of getting lynched? He gets his way.
Im saying lynch Martin. I am doing exactly what I said I would do. Let the people duke it out. I am duking it out. Either get 3 more people or stfu and stop cluttering the DP cause both Deidre and Oberon and Random agree with my plan and the one person who doesn’t, you scumread.
A-Gerard wrote:
I’m the architect of the plan that puts me on the chopping block, yes. Ofc that makes me scum right lol
You are utterly unwilling to consider the prospect of multiple vanillas when the open set up thread tells us there are multiple vanillas. You are basing your math on the assumption that all 6 town roles are in the game, when the mod directly told us they aren't neccesarily there, giving option for more vanillas. You were a vanilla this whole time who didn't consider for a second that there could be 3 vanillas or more lol
You have got to be on crack. I have never said that all 6 people have to have the town roles. If anything it was the opposite. I said in a 12 player game, let’s ASSUME 6 townies are truly Vanillas. Out of 9 townies, 6 are Vanilla. And THEN you have a 33% chance lmfao
A-Gerard wrote:
BTW looked how turned up Flora is getting. This reminds me heavily of the game when I called out his bus on casey. Trying to remember the name of the game.
This is ironic coming from you when you scumread me because I didn’t fight. Selective memory.
A-Gerard wrote:
I’ll take your word for it that you’ll put me at L-2. I’m Vanilla as well. So now let’s see Luna tangle with *checks notes* voting a Vanilla and following the exact same strategy I said.
You shouldn't have a problem with it since it's your plan right?
I’m the architect of the plan that puts me on the chopping block, yes. Ofc that makes me scum right lol
A-Random wrote:
Half of cains posts are
Test
Test
Test
Test
Test
Test
Test
Test
Test
Does by bot work
Test
Test
Shit I won't do it any anymore
Test
He's to focused on that to be in a active scum chat I think
Thats the OGI read I had on him
Gonna say anything to Random lol. I bet you won’t cause you didn’t saying anything to Oberon or Deidre
This is just hilarious lmaoooo
A-Random wrote:
Poe. Dont buy the 3 vanilla claims.
Something I’ve been saying THE ENTIRE FUCKING GAME
What’s your basis of scumread on me?
A-Random wrote:
Who all has claimed vanilla?
Me, Martin, Caine
VTL: A-Brand
A-Deirdre wrote:
Gotta stop in at work, I’ll be back online in a little bit. My inclination right now is towards getting what info we can, and that’s from Flora right now, even if he isn’t my preference.
I’ll take your word for it that you’ll put me at L-2. I’m Vanilla as well. So now let’s see Luna tangle with *checks notes* voting a Vanilla and following the exact same strategy I said.
Who do yall want to lynch and why. We’re running out of time. I’m willing to vote Brand, Martin, and Llewella. Gerard is being a moron and thinks he’s the scum king slayer, when he’s voting to the lynch the town king
A-Gerard wrote:
What behavioral reasons are you talking about? I’ve already explained why you cannot directly compare my behavior to previous game. You yourself said you can’t compare your own behavior to the previous game, so it’s ironic that you’re using that here.
You are death tunneling a mech lynch and pretending like its some end all be all analysis, while not pursuing any behavior like at all.
Thats just false - I had a sound plan in mind which a lot of people agreed to. I’ve spent this entire DP rejecting your claims. You yourself admitted that you’re playing differently this game compared to last game because you knew you were mod confirmed town. I’ve spent this entire DP rejecting your arguments and posted my reads. You have abolished any semblance of even pursuing anyone. If anyone has been death tunneling, it’s you. I’ve refuted your argument multiple times. Even Deidre sees where I’m coming from.
Your reads in 358 were extremely lack luster, and scum reads are extremely weak.
That’s your opinion lol.
I think you haven't spent your time this day phase optimally. Being town confirmed and different sure. Barely asking any questions though? That's not like town pie.
Have you even isoed me? I’ve asked questions of certain people. But I’ve spent most of time arguing back and forth with you because of your shitty death tunneling. I’ve been open all game to getting the third claim. You’re just like boo hoo, I’m voting Flora cause I behaviorally scum read them with no objective. You stated with a few hours left that you want my claim.
And even when your questions were answered it never changed or effected your stance on people. Martin responded to your read on her, you said nothing.
That’s just false lol, I responded to her and I explained to Brand replacement why she’s scum. The MO is the exact same. Poke at a few places, follow the same wagons, etc. She manufactured her “reads” last game and yall townread her for it lol
You questioned and doubled down on lynching her at every point. It's not a secret that you have the biggest ego on the site, and having the top ELO you can back it up a bit, but as scum I think we both know you think you are immune from early lynches, especially when people like Rex and Wylted constantly repeat how pursuing you in early day phases is a waste of time.
It’s cause im the only one willing to put the time in to defend myself. Everyone else doesn’t give a shit. I’m probably one of the only people who give a shit about playing this game in an optimal game to win, which is why I have one of the best ELOs. You and Llewella who you coincidentally scumread are the only people who think this play is not suboptimal
And while I would love to interact with a town version with you here, I don't get the vibe that this is you.
Your vibe is just wrong lol.
I am open to being wrong, and if your claim changes that read drastically then I will take that into account when dealing with you for the remainder of the game. I don't think a vanilla claim is going to change that for me though.
So how are you going to deal with it the remainder of the game if *checks notes* you want to lynch me.
As for the Vanilla tactic. There are people like Oberon who agree with me and there are crickets coming from you on that.
I alone make up more than a 1/4 of the total posts in this game so far, I have responded to every single most you made. Yeah nothing but crickets over here lol
Crickets on criticism of Oberon agreeing with me lmfao. You just seem to have a hard on when I do it, but not when Oberon stated he agrees 100% and Deidre is basically on board. At some point you have to realize you’re being retarded and people that are also good agree with someone who is also good. And the one person who doesn’t, you scumread lol
And yes, I can read Martin pretty well. I got her last game in DP1, and I’ve gotten her in other games as well early on. The fact she just claimed Vanilla with zero pressure (very low risk for scum to do that since I hadn’t even said my tactic at that point).
You got her last game on false jailkeep results, she said this in the endgame thread. You were right for the wrong reasons, and got lucky lol. And every game Martin has ever played in she claims early. Last game was the one exception, and look at that, she was scum.
Literally go read my response to when she posted her “reads” on DP1. I said there was something fishy. And literally why would I jailkeep her if I was not sus of her lol. Lucky my ass lmfao. You got fooled by her the entire game. Last game it wasn’t safe to claim Vanilla, this game it’s the safest, plus she claimed with zero pressure.
I’ll full claim at L-2. But your read is asinine.
Day phase is fast coming to an end, so wait at your own peril.
If town wants to lynch a person who has shown they’re willing to respond to people, where multiple people agree with him on the strategy, then they’re retarded lol.
A-Deirdre wrote:
Would your priority for a third claim still be Brand at this point?
Yes, and it’s annoying the bickering has moved us away from this goal, but at this stage we have to lynch and Martin is that person for me
A-Gerard wrote:
Why do you townread Martin?
It's more of a light town read, but they definitely aren't a lynch priority. I liked their reads and answers to my questions though.
You liked it last game too lol. I was the only one who was like I didn’t like it. It’s clearly NAI.
Why do you townread Martin?
You were already on me lol
A-Gerard wrote:
You’re literally following the strat I’m following lmaoo but okay. I specifically said that you can pick the third person. I also have posted my reads. I prefer Brands slot to claim and then lynch Brands or Martin for behavioral reasons. Also would be fine replacing Brands with Llewella
Except I want to lynch you for behavioral reasons and the behavioral reason you want to lynch martin for is... perceived passive aggressiveness? Really? But we are 3 hours away form EOD so if your letting me choose the third person, lets let it be you, because at this point I am ready to lynch you, or default an inactive if you are confirmed.
What behavioral reasons are you talking about? I’ve already explained why you cannot directly compare my behavior to previous game. You yourself said you can’t compare your own behavior to the previous game, so it’s ironic that you’re using that here.
As for the Vanilla tactic. There are people like Oberon who agree with me and there are crickets coming from you on that.
And yes, I can read Martin pretty well. I got her last game in DP1, and I’ve gotten her in other games as well early on. The fact she just claimed Vanilla with zero pressure (very low risk for scum to do that since I hadn’t even said my tactic at that point).
Read her reasoning. She said: why would I claim Vanilla if I knew that Flora was going to target it. She didn’t know I was going to do that because I revealed it AFTER.
And the passive aggressiveness doesn’t just extend to Llewella, it extends to me. I scumread Flora but won’t do anything about because there’s no support. Previous game, she was fine sussing me on the notion that Thoth/Alyssa would’ve claimed while I was inactive. It’s weak to begin with
I literally said in my first post that I’m assuming that there are 6 vanillas. If there are even less then that, then odds are even better than 33% lol. It’s literally math. And you also realize that if I claim Vanilla, I know that I’m 100% a vanilla and that makes it less likely that other people are. So from my POV if 3 other people claim Vanilla, 3/8 are likely to be scum aka 37.5%.
Are you claiming vanilla or is this all wifom?
I’ll full claim at L-2. But your read is asinine.
A-Gerard wrote:
Lmfao. So you’re fine lynching Vanillas too?
Why wouldn't I be? I haven't been anti-lynching vanilla, its anti-lynching someone JUST for being vanilla lol.
You’re literally following the strat I’m following lmaoo but okay. I specifically said that you can pick the third person. I also have posted my reads. I prefer Brands slot to claim and then lynch Brands or Martin for behavioral reasons. Also would be fine replacing Brands with Llewella
Say I claim Vanilla. Have you considered that it means that Caine and Martin are less likely to be town from my POV?
Like I said, bare minimum there is 2-3 vanillas, and potentially more. 6 towns roles potentially exist, but according to mago some of them may not exist. If that's the case there are likely even more vanillas. And yes I think its scummy for you not to have realized that and pushed someone simply for being vanilla.
I literally said in my first post that I’m assuming that there are 6 vanillas. If there are even less then that, then odds are even better than 33% lol. It’s literally math. And you also realize that if I claim Vanilla, I know that I’m 100% a vanilla and that makes it less likely that other people are. So from my POV if 3 other people claim Vanilla, 3/8 are likely to be scum aka 37.5%.
A-Gerard wrote:
Flora is either confirmable as one of the 6 town roles in the set up, or he's vanilla, which makes him a good lynch target for wanting to lynch other vanillas after being one himself. If he's confirmable I say we lynch between bleys and fiona, I have a stronger preference for Fiona because I think Bleys will be more active but tends to not like dp1, and I have just actually nothing for fiona.
Lmfao. So you’re fine lynching Vanillas too? Say I claim Vanilla. Have you considered that it means that Caine and Martin are less likely to be town from my POV?
A-Gerard wrote:
Idk how you make this assumption with Mago, but okay lol
That part never really factored much into my analysis much either way, I have have said a few times that if anyone claims a role on that list other than vanilla townie, they will be basically confirmed in my eyes.
Early on, obviously. Later in the game, not so much.
A-Gerard wrote:
This is what you said. This statement is objectively false.
In hindsight maybe I viewed that incorrectly from his statement, but his response also doesn't conflict with this. He doesn't specifically say in that response that there aren't other roles beyond the list. If he told Dierdre it was exhaustive maybe that indicated that to him, but I didn't get that response. I assumed logically that if some of those roles could not be in the game, then there can also be roles not on the list in the game.
Idk how you make this assumption with Mago, but okay lol
A-Gerard wrote:
I asked him this already in private, apparently there can be roles not on that list in the game
This is what you said. This statement is objectively false.
A-Gerard wrote:
Also just to clear up the confusion I can't post a screenshot of my convo with mago, but he said I could ask him the same question about the set up list that I did when the game started, and he would answer it the same way.
This was the exact question I asked verbatim: "So is this a completely open set up meaning all these roles actually exist in the game?" And I linked the set up thread.
Mago what is your answer?
I verbatim asked him if a role outside of the posted roles can exist in the game and he said No.
A-Llewella wrote:
Your wagon seems like where it should be. You presented a plan arguing a mech crunch where there was none and have constantly shoved people for role reveals in a game I over and over ask how reveals help solve. I question your intentions and am only on Bleys to keep them in the situation for EoD
Ive already explained why you’re wrong, and you haven’t said anything. It’s objectively true that scum are likely to claim Vanilla this early in the game. If you disagree, explain to me how.
What are your thoughts on the 2 wagons. That’s what you wanted right?
A-Brand wrote:
Lean Town:
Gerard - I think the PM stuff was NAI. I could see him doing this as scum as a WIFOM thing to try to garner town cred because it brings unnecessary attention. The town side though is the interaction with Brand. Probably the bane of Brand’s existence.
Caine - Feels town just based on vibes and the sheer wagoning that he’s doing. The MO fits the previous game as well.
Can you elaborate on the Caine read? He feels pretty null to me so far. His wagoning in the last game felt much more detailed from what I saw. Tho I am basing that largely on late game stuff, so maybe that's a little unfair. But I haven't seen anything yet that immediately makes me lean one way or the other from him.
He’s very trigger happy when he’s town is what I’ve noticed. Shifting from wagon to wagon. In his scum game, he’s more focused on himself and responding to that if I remember correctly. There’s also a sorta OGI thing as well
Tilt Scum:
Llewella - I think these pseudo-vanilla games make it easier to lurk as scum and avoid posting. The posts this person has made just seem snarky for a bit until fading into no existence because other shit pops up
Martin - I think the passive aggressiveness is what I picked up on last game. It was a tiny push, yet an obvious push. Sort of like seeing what sticks. It didn’t stick on me obviously, but with someone like Llewella, odds are greater if sticks.
Re: Martin - I tend to always townread them which is a problem, but something about their behavior this game pings me as different somehow. I'm a little tired and trying to get caught up in time so I'm having a hard time assembling my thoughts well, but when I realized who they were I was like, "Wait, really? That's them?" Plus, you seem to be the one person who always sees through them. You are to Martin as a certain other player (I'll try to avoid breaking the rules even though the one about not claiming who you are is basically already dead) is to me. Somehow he can always immediately tell when I'm scum; I don't get it.
Thats what my impression was as well. I thought they were someone completely different initially. But the passive aggressiveness is what really got my attention. It was a jab at me in the previous game. Here they’re poking Llewella.
A-Gerard wrote:
I am mostly going to respond to this out of boredom, as I don't think this conversation actually progresses the game. You will double down into oblivion and never admit you are wrong, and then even if you are lynched and innocent will just blame people for lynching you for being stupid or whatever, so it feels a bit pointless. But challenge accepted.
Im going to respond one last time and then ignore cause we’ve done this before and cluttered the entire DP and we both ended up town I’m pretty sure.
I thought of this after they had claimed. And no, it can’t only be used on people who claim Vanilla. Idrc who operates account. I see that the odds are if scum are forced this early to claim ie if Caine or Martin are scum, they’re likely to claim Vanilla.
You are only talking about this in regards to a vanilla role, meaning if someone claimed otherwise, you wouldn't have the same incentive to lynch them. From my POV I don't really see town having any other reason to claim any role besides vanilla. If I was forced to claim and I was a PR I would just claim vanilla. It doesn't make any sense to claim any thing else.
And that would be stupid because down the line when you’re about to be lynched, you’re going to say oh no no, I lied about my role. And I sure as hell will not believe that down the line. In this game, town should be honest and not force fellow townies to read into the WIFOM and force a decision.
We should treat this game as an all vanilla game unless someone has results or actions that implicate another person.
But it’s fundamentally not. There aren’t only Vanillas and goons. My strategy would not work in an all vanilla game because fundamentally everyone would be vanilla to begin with.
Which is why I haven't been going for claims very hard. I supported you in getting Caines only because I knew you wouldn't let it go like a pitbuill until otherwise and I didn't want to waste a considerable amount of the game on that shit.
That’s your perogative. Lynches via Behavioral analysis, especially during DP1 is more often than not wrong statistically. Last game was an exception, otherwise it’s usually a mislynch. Here there’s statistics to back it up + no one is saying avoid behavioral analysis. I’m promoting it. And in our quarrel here, Martin hasn’t said much.
What are you even talking about? If 3 people know they’re the targets, they have 2 options:
1) Explain why one of the other people should be lynched
2) Explain why someone outside of the two should be lynched.
It generates activity on their end, plus forces the rest of town to choose sides.
You are expecting them to be on board with logic that is already baseline unreasonable. Especially in DP1. In a LYLO situation where you are working through POE, maybe you do this, but not in DP1 lol
Expecting who? The rest of town? Or the 3 people? Regardless, it forces them to choose a side. That in itself is a gold mine. The Shining wagon last game was exonerating evidence for him.
You saying it’s “bad” doesn’t mean it’s objectively bad. It’s objectively and statistically sound. The arguments you and Deidre have made, I’ve repudiated. You have failed to explain why the probability doesn’t make sense.
This logic doesn't make sense if you are town.
The logic makes perfect sense. You just fail to see it because you’re refusing to acknowledge the probability aspect of it and are thinking I’m just saying totally ignore behavioral analysis. Even Deidre sees it now with my explanations. I’ve already told you that you can pick the third person, but you haven’t. You have a vote on me, but you haven’t said what your end goal is? Do you want a claim from me?
You are suggesting lynching someone for something completely NAI, a Vanilla claim, which we have reason to believe multiple exist based on the set up and number of roles.
A Vanilla claim this early isn’t NAI if we are considering that out of 3 people that claim Vanilla, one is likely to be scum. Why? Because scum are with 97% accuracy going to claim Vanilla this early vs a PR. That’s AI information
Scum have incentive to seek mislynches that "sound reasonable on paper" that can be justified. We lynch any of these people and they turn town, I guarantee the next day phase you just double down on your logic and say something like "Okay I was wrong, but the logic was sound so pursuing the lynch wasn't scummy".
Yes, because a 33% chance this early in the game is desirable. And you have yet to provide an alternative. Let’s say you force me to claim, and I claim Vanilla. Are you just going to get another claim from someone else, or lynch within the 3 people who have claimed lol. Cause at that point, you’re doing EXACTLY what I’ve been saying.
If we mislynch here we really accomplish nothing, except for going further down the rabbit hole and saying "Oh well, Caine was innocent, that means Martin is the next lynch, the logic still is valid" and if we mislynch again, you continuously escape blame for lynches that really have nothing to do with behavior, and were fundamentally wrong to begin with.
You have not read my previous posts. This is only for today. Tomorrow we reevaluate with the knowledge of the flip. This isn’t a Dreamer scenario where I’m just saying lynch 3 people back to back. It’s a forcible mechanism to produce reads from people both in the pool and outside.
You can always out argue your way out of mislynch responsibility, but you specifically have an uncanny ability to get away with it as scum more than others because you feel you can bully and intimidate people with a million back and forth responses that seem "logical" to the point where people just accept it out of exhaustion. Sorry buddy, I am not playing that game.
You don’t have to. If you don’t want to understand math, I can’t help you. A couple of people already outright agree with me or see where I’m coming from.
You have 2 options at this stage. Get a third claim and lynch out of the 3, with the third person most likely claiming Vanilla anyways, or get a fourth claim. Pick your poison.
Option 3: Ignore option one and two because they are fundamentally retarded and lynch people for actual behavioral related analysis.
Lol I’ve asked you this again. Why tf can we not do both? We’re not getting more than 3 claims anyways. And when that third person claims Vanilla you’re still just going to lynch them for “behavior” which is exactly what I’m saying we should do
