A-Gerard

This feels like a genuine town slip from Gerard. It reminds me of Wylted getting his character wrong in Ace Attorney Mafia. Lowkey it's kind of crazy that Luna still sussed him and even tried to push him after that. (Sorry Luna, you're a good player and I respect you, but that was a wild read imo.)

The idea is that the game wasn't up yet, and only a few people had received their accounts early as indicated by the pfp change. Mafia usually get role pm's earlier than town does, in my experience. I got the timestamps wrong though, so it was NAI, but it made sense. Also it was a mix of RVS to get activity going along side being an actual read. I don't think I would have outright lynched them over that logic if their behavior made sense, because there is a realm of possibility that the mod just randomly gave some town role pm's early. But it was a good way to kick off getting people to post.

I am mostly going to respond to this out of boredom, as I don't think this conversation actually progresses the game. You will double down into oblivion and never admit you are wrong, and then even if you are lynched and innocent will just blame people for lynching you for being stupid or whatever, so it feels a bit pointless. But challenge accepted.

I thought of this after they had claimed. And no, it can’t only be used on people who claim Vanilla. Idrc who operates account. I see that the odds are if scum are forced this early to claim ie if Caine or Martin are scum, they’re likely to claim Vanilla.

You are only talking about this in regards to a vanilla role, meaning if someone claimed otherwise, you wouldn't have the same incentive to lynch them. From my POV I don't really see town having any other reason to claim any role besides vanilla. If I was forced to claim and I was a PR I would just claim vanilla. It doesn't make any sense to claim any thing else. We should treat this game as an all vanilla game unless someone has results or actions that implicate another person. Which is why I haven't been going for claims very hard. I supported you in getting Caines only because I knew you wouldn't let it go like a pitbuill until otherwise and I didn't want to waste a considerable amount of the game on that shit.

What are you even talking about? If 3 people know they’re the targets, they have 2 options:

1) Explain why one of the other people should be lynched

2) Explain why someone outside of the two should be lynched.

It generates activity on their end, plus forces the rest of town to choose sides.

You are expecting them to be on board with logic that is already baseline unreasonable. Especially in DP1. In a LYLO situation where you are working through POE, maybe you do this, but not in DP1 lol

You saying it’s “bad” doesn’t mean it’s objectively bad. It’s objectively and statistically sound. The arguments you and Deidre have made, I’ve repudiated. You have failed to explain why the probability doesn’t make sense.

This logic doesn't make sense if you are town. You are suggesting lynching someone for something completely NAI, a Vanilla claim, which we have reason to believe multiple exist based on the set up and number of roles. Scum have incentive to seek mislynches that "sound reasonable on paper" that can be justified. We lynch any of these people and they turn town, I guarantee the next day phase you just double down on your logic and say something like "Okay I was wrong, but the logic was sound so pursuing the lynch wasn't scummy". If we mislynch here we really accomplish nothing, except for going further down the rabbit hole and saying "Oh well, Caine was innocent, that means Martin is the next lynch, the logic still is valid" and if we mislynch again, you continuously escape blame for lynches that really have nothing to do with behavior, and were fundamentally wrong to begin with. You can always out argue your way out of mislynch responsibility, but you specifically have an uncanny ability to get away with it as scum more than others because you feel you can bully and intimidate people with a million back and forth responses that seem "logical" to the point where people just accept it out of exhaustion. Sorry buddy, I am not playing that game.

You have 2 options at this stage. Get a third claim and lynch out of the 3, with the third person most likely claiming Vanilla anyways, or get a fourth claim. Pick your poison.

Option 3: Ignore option one and two because they are fundamentally retarded and lynch people for actual behavioral related analysis.

A-Deirdre wrote:

Calling it an earlier night tonight, but better to just clarify this. I believe Oberon is asking you to explain why you thought there were roles that weren't announced in the Setup thread, believe it was post #49.

The first thing I asked Magoroth was if this was an open set up, to which he replied "semi open". I asked him to elaborate, and his answer was this: "The roles there are the possible ones. Some or all may appear in the game. Basically, it is possible that one or more roles are not in the game"

Waiting for my co worker to leave in an hour so I can catch up and respond to people.

A-Oberon wrote:

A-Deirdre wrote:

I have it confirmed by Magoroth that the list of roles provided in the Setup thread is exhaustive, so yes, that pool of 7 roles specific to town is the extent of it. Fair enough, I appreciate the correction. That does make it harder for scum to fake claim actual roles in the game.

Well then Gerard needs to explain himself

Explain what I’m confused?

Hey

A-Flora wrote:

A-Gerard wrote:

I’m not saying I know the vanilla claims are legit, I’m saying if we lynch them and they are town we learn basically nothing. Doesn’t even make sense as a default lynch. It’s an extremely lazy lynch and I’d rather lynch someone for a behavioral reason

I never said we just lynch the outright in a span of 5 minutes. Go back and read what I said. Make the three of them duke it out. That inherently generates reads. And I also said you can use behavior strategically in combination with my strategy. Your behaviorally strategy alone can’t be quantified. Mine there’s direct probability. It’s not “lazy.” It’s only lazy if they refuse to argue why they’re town and point us in a different direction.

Sounds like this strategy could be employed on anyone regardless of whether they are vanilla or not. Are you really picking them for vanilla? Or is it because of who operates the account lol?

Also how do you force some one to FOS someone else for logic they don’t fundamentally already agree with? This whole plan is so bad that I struggle to believe you were capable of coming up with something this stupid and are town.

Kohai wrote:

Test

ey chill

I am not feeling well and have asked to sub out

Ooh let’s get wryly

Why say this and then outline who people are a few pages later?

Changed my mind. Because I figure people are being so obvious about it that we should assume mafia already know who people are anyway, so make the information public to level the playing field.

Here’s your counter wagon

VTL: A-Flora

I’m not saying I know the vanilla claims are legit, I’m saying if we lynch them and they are town we learn basically nothing. Doesn’t even make sense as a default lynch. It’s an extremely lazy lynch and I’d rather lynch someone for a behavioral reason

I wouldn’t even worry about the Yakuza/TP cause just based on posting style, we should be able to figure it out

I think I could but I’m not sure about other players. You and dierdre probably could, but if your scum that is irrelevant. I think you are also skilled enough to pull off an accurate impersonation. Either way it’s failsafe against it and would only be revealed on suspecting someone anyway, so it can’t hurt.

Wills can be manipulated though

If the role is indeed in the game. Either way this part doesn’t matter as much for the cryptography strat to be effective

I don’t understand your math on the vanilla thing. If there are three vanilla claims and they are actually vanilla and we just go through mislynching them to no avail, we help the mafia win con more than the town wincon. The very discussion of lynching vanillas makes it less likely it will be fake claimed as well.

I know it's been mentioned a few times and I'm a bit lost on the aim of these "disguiser codes" and how they'll function. If we're doing something like that, we need everyone onboard and clear on their purpose, so if someone could clarify, that would be great.

So there is two different roles on the set up list that can physically take over a persons account and post as them. A scum role called the "disguiser" which is like a yakuza. They flip as Disguiser, but then basically possess the person they killed's account. Then there is a third party role called Rogue Ty'iga that takes over a persons account.

So basically with all these "Identity theft roles" and the mod allowing cryptography to be used, the idea is you make an encrypted message using something like AES that only unlocks this with a code word. You put that code word in your will. If we suspect someone of being disguised, we can force them later to out this code word. If they cannot provide the code word, if proves they are not the original owner of that account and therefor scum.

Dead

None

Claims List

Caine- Vanilla Town

Martin- Vanilla Town- Reads: Post 559, dp1

Unclaimed

Deidre- Reads: Post 540, dp1

Flora- Reads: Post 358, dp1

Gerard- Reads: Post 276, 478 dp1

Julian- Reads: Post 626, dp1

Llewella

Oberon

Random

Fiona

Bleys

Brand

A-Flora wrote:

A-Gerard wrote:

What are your thoughts on Llewella? Both general thoughts and specifically about 398

I have my reads in #358 and nothing has changed from that. I don’t see any attempt to genuinely scum hunt. My personal belief is to treat this individual objectively and ignore all the WIFOM. Just cause he said he was going to be like this, doesn’t mean he’s town. He’s obviously smarter than that. If he wants to take the back seat and not do anything while being active, it’s just blatant manipulation and objectively likely to come from scum.

Somehow I missed that post. Thankyou.

Oberon & Flora - FoS. They are legit posting almost alike to this point. The same manner and in the same way. I really don’t understand the difference and I inherently FoS read that considering who these people could potentially be

If you want to start a wagon on Flora to see where it goes, I would join you. This might be one of the extremely rare occasions where we could do something with it. I think they have had a stark behavioral shift this game from the last game, and am getting Ruyi Zhuan vibes. I think the only big negative here would be risking one of the active players, but the later the game goes, the harder this person will be to get lynched if they are scum. Players like you me and Dierdre will slowly be picked off until it's just easy to manipulate people left.

A-Deirdre wrote:

Thanks for the response, that helps a ton.

A-Llewella wrote:

I am seeing 31 hours btw

29 actually yeah bad math

A-Llewella wrote:

Not sure yet. Finally had time to dig into the mech implications of the game.

smh

If my math is correct we have roughly 17 hours left. We have a wagon on Brand. Where should we put the counter wagon?

Can third party roles like executioner target scum?

Any day cycle ever where there is not a train and counter train town is absolutely failing. No exception ever.

Not true.

They do not need to suspect etch-other. They only need to exist.

Set one up then. Be the change you want in the world.

Can third parties joint win or does them winning usurp the win for themselves?

Executioner- Hard anti town function (maybe rolled mafia?) Evolves into jester

What do you mean maybe rolled mafia?

A-Llewella wrote:

Town needs a train and counter train.

Concise focused posts.

This is something you consistently stated in the last game. While I see what you’re going for here, I wonder how realistic it is to pull this off in every game. It’s kind of rare when you get a 1v1 that completely splits the town up like that. If counter train means that the two people accusing each other both have wagons. If counter train means literally any other wagon then feel free to take the initiative in starting that. You still haven’t listed any reads.

Smh you’re gonna stall the whole day phase. You were just on and you chose to do nothing with that time. You’ve got four votes on you.

Wait. What I said before was incorrect. Lord of Chaos is indeed the only Mafia role that can factional kill. Disregard previous answer

Okay so Lord of Chaos get's jailed there is basically no night kill correct?

Traitor is Mafia aligned and wins with them.

So in other words Traitor is just a lone wolf? The Traitor doesn't work against their team correct?