A-Gerard

Can you message wryly to see if they will replace Fiona?

Flora is either confirmable as one of the 6 town roles in the set up, or he's vanilla, which makes him a good lynch target for wanting to lynch other vanillas after being one himself. If he's confirmable I say we lynch between bleys and fiona, I have a stronger preference for Fiona because I think Bleys will be more active but tends to not like dp1, and I have just actually nothing for fiona.

7 hours remaining yall. Bout time to start deciding on a lynch when you wake up. I say Flora over brand personally.

A-Llewella wrote:

I will re-state my goal

Saying in very few words as much as I can and not wall posting.

I have said a lot more than you give me credit for as you demand more.

I did give you credit for recent posts. I mean you told me you lied to me about this challenge your doing actually being about available time and activity as opposed to being a real challenge, so don't expect people to town read you. Have fun doing whatever your doing I guess, hope it works out for you.

Well I am not going for town cred. I am putting as much effort into this game as I did the last one. Just this one you do not get the inside understanding of why.

Me town reading you last game was majorly for theDm's, but I think I would have town read you for the posts in general in the day phase. I am not telling you to strive for being town read, but to provide your thoughts and let people know where your head is at like you did in the last game, IE the only ever game any of us have seen your town play in. No one here knows how you play as scum, outside of what you told the mason chat about your abilities. So naturally if we see you behaving differently in the very next game, again, it's going to raise eyebrows if you aren't giving any sort of heads up about why you are doing it, and then later confess to lying about why you did it.

I was confirmed town last game, so I did kind of what you are doing here, and kept most of my reads in the discord chat with you guys. Being confirmed, I had the luxury of being able to do that. Notice I didn't provide a single read other than my lynch target, because there was no reason to. I can't do that in every game, because I am not town confirmed in every game, so it's my obligation to share where I am at with the rest of you so you can decide for yourselves whether or not my reads are genuine or not.

If I was just to not post reasons for anything, you would be right to suspect me. But also imagine what it would be like to play with 11 other people all doing the same thing. How would you accomplish anything?

I suspect Flora as well. I have given pools of players I do not want touched today and pools I am willing to eliminate. I have not shoved either but my vote is a call for attention on one. What do you want from me?

Honesty would be a start. Most of this could have been avoided if you just came right out and said "My life is hectic right now, don't expect me to be able to invest as much effort as I did in the last game". I would have understood. Others would have understood. You told us you had court in the sign ups of the last game, and we gave you plenty of grace for that. Now I have to sit here and wonder if you lied about doing some self challenge play for nefarious reasons, when we've seen you be honest about your activity and posting schedule in the past. The whole brain fuck was for nothing.

Also the other thing that doesn't make sense to me is how you were doing it. Like you were still online last night and typing to me, but were specifically avoiding giving any sort of read or game direction. I would have accepted "I don't know yet" as an answer. Most people have null reads in their read lists. It's day phase one, not knowing how to read everyone is fine. But the benefit to asking for reads and direction isn't just to prod you for activity, it's to start making behavioral links between you and the people on your reads. Say we lynch Flora, and they are scum. Now that I know your stance on them I can say you reading them as scum early could earn you town cred. Having this information last night would prove more helpful in that scenario, before the wagon on him began. Now if he flips scum and you don't add your voice to him until later, it looks more like mafia would be willing to bus because Flora seems more like a lost cause. Just an example. I don't have to explain associative tells to you, you clearly understand them because you pressed thoth for them after we lynched him in the last game so you know what I mean here.

Well let me put this in more real terms.

Tomorrow I have a day where I have 5 meetings. By tomorrow I mean the first one starts in about 7 hours.

Can I go super try hard in a game all out? Yes. Some games I recognize I have life obligations and say "I will voice what I can in few words given a community does not bother reading walls"

Is that Selfish or is that just giving what I can given irl obligations to the game and what the community can handle reading?

Okay so you lied about trying to challenge yourself then. Why?

If it's an activity thing we can work around it, we are doing that all the time with other players, like Fiona and Bleys. The difference was that you were online and posting, going back and forth with me but not giving up anything. And this community does read walls, players like Diedre post exclusively in walls, and most of us have tons of respect for that player and their abilities.

You want to see me absolutely power town unhinged mode. I get that.

Well that's how you presented yourself in the last game. You wrote a guide on how to play mafia effectively, and were lecturing people for ending phases too fast after successful scum lynches. You go from that to not providing any sort of direction for the day phase, you have to realize that people are going to raise their eyebrows.

This is a game I expected to start like a month and a half ago and have real life obligations. Its not gona happen. Take what I give you and stop pushing me for what you want or just kill me for not giving it to you and I will shrug about it post game like I did last time.

Again, I already did. I happen to suspect flora a bit more than you atm so you get a temproary pass for it. Plus your behavior is slightly better, though you still haven't really given a firm stance or push towards a player other than Bleys for inactivity and echoing dismay about Floras VT policy lynch

I think you keep demanding a specific thing you want from me that I am not giving you, and you are ignoring the things of solid value that I am giving you.

A specific thing? Give me anything lol.

I am not trying to be hostile, but I generally make up my mind before a game starts the play style I will use. Sorry if you dislike my choice.

Do you think it's a reasonable excuse for a soccer player to play a match with his legs tied together so he can challenge himself? Is it reasonable for his team mates to dislike that decision since it effects them as well? It's a team game. Maybe you can still score a goal with your feet tied together but its going to be harder for your team to play around you and interact with you.

You don't seem to care about inhibiting your team though, so I don't see much to discuss about it, and really just have to focus on analyzing if this is behavior someone who is a part of my soccer team would do, or if they are a double agent working for the other team.

My new encryption with Rot.

V nz Yhangvp. V nz Inavyyn Gbja. Vs fbzrbar pynvzf gurl ner zr gurl fubhyq fnl gur jbeq phagahttrg ng gur fgneg bs qnl cunfr 2.

Idk how you make this assumption with Mago, but okay lol

That part never really factored much into my analysis much either way, I have have said a few times that if anyone claims a role on that list other than vanilla townie, they will be basically confirmed in my eyes.

I can't decrypt my earlier AES thing. I think I fucked it up. I'll re do it.

This is what you said. This statement is objectively false.

In hindsight maybe I viewed that incorrectly from his statement, but his response also doesn't conflict with this. He doesn't specifically say in that response that there aren't other roles beyond the list. If he told Dierdre it was exhaustive maybe that indicated that to him, but I didn't get that response. I assumed logically that if some of those roles could not be in the game, then there can also be roles not on the list in the game.

If we are gona be real my hard in depth wall posts were barely worth talking about before. I may as well try small tik tok attention span posts this time around.

I read them all. You said a lot of stuff I didn't agree with, but you also come from a different community and your whole mafia experience is different then mine, so debating a lot of your beliefs around mafia kind of seems pointless. It wasn't that they aren't worth talking about, it's that they don't impact how I and other view the game a drastic amount. It did however help me get an understanding of how you think and post as town. And not every post was about meta, much of your posts were delving into people, analyzing their interactions and past thoughts. You grilled thoth for a page and a half after he had been lynched looking for associative tells. Where is that Llewella?

I verbatim asked him if a role outside of the posted roles can exist in the game and he said No.

Where is the issue then, that's the same thing he told me. Maybe I am misunderstanding what Dierdre means by 'exhaustive". Thought he was saying that those roles have to exist in the game.

Also if we get to EOD and can't decide on a lynch I think we should default lynch either Fiona or Bleys for refusal to participate. Random said they would post tomorrow so I'll give them a temporary pass.

Also just to clear up the confusion I can't post a screenshot of my convo with mago, but he said I could ask him the same question about the set up list that I did when the game started, and he would answer it the same way.

This was the exact question I asked verbatim: "So is this a completely open set up meaning all these roles actually exist in the game?" And I linked the set up thread.

Mago what is your answer?

And that would be stupid because down the line when you’re about to be lynched, you’re going to say oh no no, I lied about my role. And I sure as hell will not believe that down the line. In this game, town should be honest and not force fellow townies to read into the WIFOM and force a decision.

There are a total of 6 roles on the set up list for town, not including VT, so anyone claiming something other than VT is basically confirmed town and a free night kill. There are no "protection roles" on the town list, only roleblocking roles that have to be used correctly to even prevent a night kill. So claiming anything other than VT is basically town confirmation with 0 to protect against it. I was the first lynch in the last game after being town confirmed and had to watch the game from the sidelines for the better part of a month, so you can bet your jolly ass I would fake claim if I was one of those roles.

But it’s fundamentally not. There aren’t only Vanillas and goons. My strategy would not work in an all vanilla game because fundamentally everyone would be vanilla to begin with.

You can't call going down a line and lynching role claims that are guaranteed to exist in the game a "strategy". What if they are both town? We have every reason to believe at a minimum there are 2-3 vanillas in this game with 12 players and only 6 town roles on the list.

That’s your perogative. Lynches via Behavioral analysis, especially during DP1 is more often than not wrong statistically. Last game was an exception, otherwise it’s usually a mislynch. Here there’s statistics to back it up + no one is saying avoid behavioral analysis. I’m promoting it. And in our quarrel here, Martin hasn’t said much.

I've always been of the stance that behavior goes hand and hand with mech analysis. I am not saying we do one or the other. I am just not okay lynching JUST for a vanilla claim and you are. If someone has bad behavior and they are vanilla that is another thing. Your whole stance on martins behavior was loose justification that they were passive aggressive lol.

Expecting who? The rest of town? Or the 3 people? Regardless, it forces them to choose a side. That in itself is a gold mine. The Shining wagon last game was exonerating evidence for him.

Yes the three people. And shining couldn't be exonerated if he was mislynched lol

The logic makes perfect sense. You just fail to see it because you’re refusing to acknowledge the probability aspect of it and are thinking I’m just saying totally ignore behavioral analysis. Even Deidre sees it now with my explanations. I’ve already told you that you can pick the third person, but you haven’t. You have a vote on me, but you haven’t said what your end goal is? Do you want a claim from me?

Again I am treating this as an all vanilla game. If you are a confirmable PR, that will resolve itself. I am pressuring you to not only see how you react, but how others react to your wagon, and to see if your behavior shifts in any direction the closer you get to being lynched. I don't think 4 votes on you is enough to shake your confidence that you won't be lynched, so you don't have significant reason to fear actually being lynched. We'll see if that changes the closer you are to L1.

A Vanilla claim this early isn’t NAI if we are considering that out of 3 people that claim Vanilla, one is likely to be scum. Why? Because scum are with 97% accuracy going to claim Vanilla this early vs a PR. That’s AI information

Okay pie, humor me. You are scum, and someone in the day phase keeps repeating that they want to lynch through all vanilla claims. Are you still claiming vanilla? Mago specifically said that roles can exist outside that list, and that not every role on the list necessarily in the game. I asked him this in DM's when the game started, and I will happily post the screenshot if he allows me, or I encourage you to ask him the same thing if you don't believe me. Logical scum here is going to avoid claiming vanilla like the plague now, and happily wagon your logic to lynch through the actual vanillas with the way you framed this.

Yes, because a 33% chance this early in the game is desirable. And you have yet to provide an alternative. Let’s say you force me to claim, and I claim Vanilla. Are you just going to get another claim from someone else, or lynch within the 3 people who have claimed lol. Cause at that point, you’re doing EXACTLY what I’ve been saying.

The 33% statistic is literally pulled out of your asshole, and has no basis in logic or math, but you keep repeating it like it means anything. And the difference in me pressuring you is that I am pressuring you on behavior. You claiming vanilla in this scenario wouldn't help your case. If anything it would probably make it look pretty hyprocritical of you to suggest lynching vanillas when you yourself were one the whole time. Another reason I suspect you aren't one. If you aren't one your basically either confirmed town or scum though, so you claiming prior to a lynch essentially solves the situation. I guess that will just depend on how much of the day phase you want to waste being resistant to it before we are out of time to focus someone else in the chance you actually end up being town.

You have not read my previous posts. This is only for today. Tomorrow we reevaluate with the knowledge of the flip. This isn’t a Dreamer scenario where I’m just saying lynch 3 people back to back. It’s a forcible mechanism to produce reads from people both in the pool and outside.

I mean I could at least KIND of understand this if you were saying "If we can't find a better target, let's lynch one of the vanillas" and I would even be on board with that. But you've focused the majority of your time this day phase pushing and defending the logic that we should lynch only between the VT's instead of doing literally anything else, which is what makes it scummy.

You don’t have to. If you don’t want to understand math, I can’t help you. A couple of people already outright agree with me or see where I’m coming from.

Ad populum doesn't work in mafia. You have four people voting you, so even if a few people agree with you, doesn't mean everyone does. And you of all people should know having the ability to manipulate people into agreeing with you doesn't mean you are town.

Lol I’ve asked you this again. Why tf can we not do both? We’re not getting more than 3 claims anyways. And when that third person claims Vanilla you’re still just going to lynch them for “behavior” which is exactly what I’m saying we should do

You aren't doing both. You've made up your mind about lynching a vanilla, and you are post justifying reasons (shitty ones if im being honest) that they are scum. You would lynch someone because you interpreted something they said as being slightly passive aggressive lol?

It's not an on or off thing. They might argue less. Argue with lower conviction. Argue about safer things.

I don't see that difference, are you able to reference specific town and scum games where you identified this, or are you just spit balling?

I get that you know I could go full power town and want that. Im not doing it.

I am kind of beyond caring at this point. If you want to be hostile just don't be surprised that I am hostile back at you, after giving you the benefit of the doubt. I have accepted that you are going to meta game this, now I just have to decide if I want to lynch you for it. I know it won't prove a point with you, but you actively aren't helping town either, and if you are scum I am going to be extra annoyed for giving you a pass for it.

Town on flora. Being argumentative DP1 is usually a town sign. Also, if they are who I think they are, their proposed play is standard both to his play history and old school mafia theory.

In the first sentence, you say being argumentative is a town sign. So do you think they wouldn't do it as scum? This person even admits that is how they would play as scum lol. Look at any game flora is scum with me and prove that he wasn't argumentative in it lol. If flora flips scum though this will be an interesting read to look at from you in hindsight, but we can cross that bridge if we come to it.

I have never been able to read Deirdre. If they are who I think they are. I'm actually not getting as much as a scum vibe from them as I usually do, which raises suspicions.

Fair, my first instinct was to town read their response to me earlier before realizing that this is the same shit I always get baited into believing is town from them.

And people act like they do not understand what I mean when I say you are shading. This is some bullshit.

You don't understand how what you are doing is frustrating? I literally just played with a game with you where you were town. I had to watch you get mislynched from the sidelines and was unable to defend your behavior from hundreds of mason interactions that screamed to me you were town. And now we are in a game where I don't have the privilege of a mason PM to get an exclusive read on you, and I ask you over and over again to give me anything to help me and the rest of town read you, or find a direction to move forward with, and your solution is to basically say, "No, fuck you", ignore the questions, and talk strictly about mech analysis, that you were previously complaining about us relying on too much in our community?

Like I know I can be a douchebag sometimes, but I think I am being heavily reserved in how much I am being one to how much I want to be even more of one. The fact that I haven't tried to just outright lynch you already when I know I could easily get the support for it, is evidence that I am trying to work with you and your wierd challenge stipulations. I even built you a counter wagon- Your Welcome. Are you going to do anything with it, or are you just going to pretend I don't exist the entire game, and dismiss me like you've been doing the whole time?

The most frustrating part about this is the image I built myself in my head about how strong a player you are and how good you would be for our community, and felt if you played similarly to how you did last game we could actually fucking cook and crack skulls here. I was lowkey excited to play with that Llewella, not dodgy, self induced challenge mode Llewella who refuses to take the lead and be a side character the whole game.

Whats your read on Flora and Diedre?

That's not true, if I have also indicated that VTs are scummy and I would do so whether I was VT or not which I MAY OR MAY NOT BE 🧐🤔🧐🤔🧐🤔🧐🤔🧐🤔

How much is going to change if when he eventually claims, he just claims VT lol. I was scum reading Brand too for crypto-gate, but random inactivity around being sick isn't exactly unusual for him. He got mislynched in Ruyi Zhuan for the same thing, and in hindsight I wish he was replaced in that one before that happened.

The only thing is that I don't think anonymous games work well on really small communities like this. Everyone knows everyone else too well.

Yeah I had this same idea years ago, to have everyone on alts. I wanted to do it for a while but I couldn't get past this just not being executed well based on the way our player base reads behavior and tendencies from past games so much, so in the end I nixed it. But I think the way Mago is running this, it actually still has potential to be a bit wild, since there are direct role mechanics that interact with taking over peoples accounts, which you couldn't do in a normal styled game.

Has Llewella been this unhelpful the whole DP?

They are doing some weird self challenge where they only post half as much as they want to. They have also gone out of their way to ignore any questions asked about their reads, or their ideas for progressing the day phase. So I guess the answer is yes.

I absolutely do not understand the point of this. Can someone explain it to me?

You can't make a cipher that's unsolvable by anyone else. I asked Mago if we could encrypt and decrypt using ROT-13 and other online languages that are public access though, and he said yes, so our solution is to use some sort of cipher for claiming like AES that unlocks the cipher with a pass phrase or word code.

VT is always going to be a little bit sus except maybe in a game with like, two or three PRs, because it can't be CC'ed. It's only a relatively weak point against his favor tho

VT is more sus in a normal game, and by normal I mean a heavy mech style game like what you and me are used to. But Magoroth comes from MU where VT's are way more common. Also the set up thread basically tells us that there is multiple VT's if you analyze it closely, so in this situation, I am almost going to treat VT's as the standard.

^ see how this guy replies to gerard, but does not reply to me and at least 1 other person asking him to claim multiple times, including in huge letters

Let him cook. This person already indicated they aren't VT, since they said that Caine's VT claim is scummy. Meaning there is a solid chance this person is confirmed town.

If I like Brands responses, I am lynching Flora today I think. Llewella won't be as challenging of a lynch in later phases if they are scum as flora will be. And I objectively just do not like Flora's behavior and insistence to double down on faulty logic while trying to appear as if behavioral analysis has any impact on their reads when the extent of one of those reads thinking someone being slightly "passive aggressive", if even true, is the extent of their scum behavior lol.

Town Flora would try a bit harder than that. Scum Flora probably is cocky enough as a player to think they can get away with it, because in most cases they can. Look at Ruyi Zhuan, did this person ever seem like they thought they were actually going to be lynched? The only thing that can demoralize Flora as scum is mech he feels is unbalanced or unfair, he thinks he can talk his way out of anything, and that's mostly because we just keep letting him.

A-Brand wrote:

A-Caine wrote:

Ok fine. I’m VT. Happy now?

Slightly sus, but okay

Why is claiming VT sus? There are 12 players, and a maximum of 6 town roles listed in the set up thread. Meaning at bare minimum there should be 2-3 Vanillas, potentially more.