Bullish

VTL: Helz

I'm not gonna respond to a bunch of non-sequiturs. My man is literally doing the chewbacca defense.

Just the fact that Helz did not report your claim to the thread is evidence that he did not take it seriously.

I'm just gonna say this one more time. If you said to me in a neighbor chat that you joint win with scum, and then asked me to NK you, I would treat that as no different than if someone straight up asked me if I was scum. You are not going deep enough with the WIFOM.

Go ahead and bus Helz bro, if you do this we're more likely to consider lynching Thoth tomorrow.

I'm ready to end this.

Thoth, you said "Yes" to "Did Helz full claim to you?", but later you said "Helz did not claim Nitrogen in our chat."

Full claim means character AND role claim. What exactly did Helz claim to you?

Thoth wrote:

Not sure what the thinking is here, but I'll cover Thoth when he specifies what's informing his read.

I told Helz that I could winshare with scum if they killed me before DP4 and was willing to cooperate. He declined.

You might as well have just asked him if he was scum lol.

Did banana really pull 2 town-scum pairs into chats, and both times town got duped?

I just took a nap btw and it was revealed to me in a dream that whiteflame is scum.

Did helz claim nitrogen to you in your neighbor chat?

You shoulda let Shining keep his bus vote on Helz, now that Thoth has revealed his hand.

Thoth wrote:

I will add more later tonight (although I admit to not having delivered every time I've said that), but for now I'm just going to say that, if Helz flips scum here, he is the most devious and mind-reading motherfucker to ever mafiate. He is completely off the table from my perspective.

Mikal and Magic have flipped. Thoth was sheeping Helz (poor decision). That leaves Helz and Shining.

From T!Bullish's perspective, "Thoth sheeping Helz" could be a cover for a Thoth/Helz scum team. Writing me out of PoE for being a lemming comes off to me as not bothering to try to mislynch me since he knows Helz won't support it.

lol.

No justification either.

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/iso?userids=69b1ae93328d2bc7aa95c600&postids=6a20427cbbfe74cbd727f612&postids=6a1dbfde931e917602469f6d&postids=6a192e7e04170764e9dddab2&postids=6a13e09b37cbfcb7588592e4&postids=6a0f0e6c1279788e7bb1747e&sort=desc

That's the multi-DP iso. No mention of "nitrogen" or any common misspellings thereof.

This is the claim post: https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/63/periodic-table-of-elements-mafia---dp1?commentId=6a1275634a7eac10f4ef3808

yeah helz is scum

Shining made no attempt to bait an NK with his role. But that may be just shining's play.

I wrote a few paragraphs about roles, but I'm not going to post it because it's mostly inconclusive. The only confirmation is that 1) a redirector flipped, 2) there as been at least 1 vanillarization, and 3) scum may or may not have a strongman, but if they did it ran out.

whiteflame wrote:

Much as I'm looking at them as a plausible scum pair at the moment, I have to ask: does the lack of movement from Shining last NP make you question that scumread at all, especially given that we know they didn't have a Redirector in play at that point? I guess a Ninja could explain it or simply that Shining did nothing and his partner carried out the kill, but I'm surprised not to see anything about that in this post.

I almost waived my action because I thought I was dead. But then I considered it. I thought if we assumed a shing/helz scum team, it would have been 50/50 if scum used shining or helz to do the NK, and another maybe 25/75 for the other scum to use their remaining active role. So 3/8 chance shining doesn't move even if he is scum. These are not outlandish odds but it did give me pause.

Just go off the top of your head. I don't want to read more than 5 sentences. I'm interested in his full plan to "solve" regarding casey, your response to it, and his private reads. I'm not interested in his claim, his professed claim behaviour is consistent with gambit mikal.

Can you summarize what mikal said to you in your neighbor's chat, and what your responses were?

I mentioned yesterday from my POV, whiteflame and Thoth are town, which leaves only Helz and Shining in the PoE. Whiteflame is soft cleared, because he did not move on NP2, which means he could not have done any redirection, visit the dreamer, or perform the NK. Thoth SOP claimed early, and his reluctance to claim soldier is also town motivated. He is also thematically town, because he has claimed an element from the noble gasses column, and both other noble gasses flipped town.

======

The casey wagon DP3 is the single most important point of analysis in my opinion.

Casey_Risk (5/5): Helz (p#188), Thoth (p#192), Shining (p#200), Mikal (p#209), Mag1cman (p#218)

Mikal and Magic have flipped. Thoth was sheeping Helz (poor decision). That leaves Helz and Shining.

======

All remaining 4 players other than myself at some point agreed with or pushed Mikal's absurd and anti-town plan to lynch casey. Helz was the strongest of these. Shing also agreed. Thoth flip flopped. Whiteflame is ambiguous because I only recall mikal claiming that whiteflame "agreed" with him their neighbor chat.

All signs point to Helz and Shining scum team.

whiteflame wrote:

You're welcome to come in here and gloat about Mikal, but I'm mainly interested in your reads at this point (do you still think it's Shining and Helz?), as well as any info we can glean from your role.

Yeah don't mind if I do. Yall couldn't even lynch him, he had to modkill himself.

whiteflame wrote:

I encourage anyone to try to find where Helz character claimed because I am lost.

Don't bother, he did not. He's doing the explicitly anti-town thing where he refuses to participate in a certain aspect.

Helz, I don't recall seeing you lynch scum very often. You need all the help you can get.

whiteflame wrote:

Bullish wrote:

No movement on Shining last NP.

Last NP? So you checked whether he moved NP4?

Correct.

My D2 target was you. I do not believe I even revealed that outside of my chat with Thoth.

Recall that I targeted NP2 whiteflame on NP3, and received negative on motion. Helz can't walk this claim back if he's already revealed it to Thoth.

It is possible however, being the only claimed protective at the time, Helz was redirected away.

No movement on Shining last NP.

There's nothing else for me to post. Whiteflame and Thoth have to climb out of the rut on their own. Peace.

We know based on claims and actions, scum has 1) a vanillarizer, 2) a strongman, and 3) some kind of redirection role (the only way to explain whiteflame's apparent visit to Shining)

Based on my personal PoE, the remaining scum are Shining and Helz. This is not certain, less certain than my read on casey/lunatic/mikal on DP2.

All the reasons to scum read mikal, and all the reasons to town read me have already been said. I'm going to summarize this one more time in memory of lunatic banana and ref. Then if you lynch me it's over; if you lynch mikal I'm dead in the night.

Mikal:

only one to not soft claim

only one to claim a inherently scummy role

primary pusher of the competing plan to drive 3 mislynches, starting with the casey mislynch, that he keeps lying about having "utility"

both NKs were mikal voters

Me:

softclaimed

can only be town motivated to defend casey (even clearer now that she flipped town)

can only be town motivated to offer myself up for a 1v1 vs mikal on DP2

town me is the only conceivable reason banana was NKd

The only reason I'm still trying this game is because technically, the majority of town used their brain to try to win the game. Myself, lunatic, banana, ref, and magic probably all would have voted mikal on DP2. That's 5 out of 8 town at the time.