Bullish

whiteflame wrote:

Bullish wrote:

My actions:

NP1 - targeted NP1 whiteflame, affirmative on motion

NP2 - targeted NP1 magic, affirmative on motion

NP3 - targeted NP2 whiteflame, negative on motion

Much bigger help than you've been this whole game

Yes, because double tapping me with your role was such a big help. If you're here to just be a dick about it, then all you're doing is making this actively harder.

It semi clears you dumbass, it means you didn't use lightning rod (thus likely actually vanillarized), didn't do the NK, and didn't visit casey.

Anyone even considering lynching me over mikal today deserves to lose. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. I've laid out basic motivation analysis, claims analysis, utility analysis, NK analysis, mikal has been scum clear as day since DP2.

casey had it coming. She was committing willful suicide by favoring to lynch me before mikal.

You and me against the world

VTL: Mikal

whiteflame wrote:

Bullish wrote:

Yall are a bunch of actual tards

Big help.

Much bigger help than you've been this whole game

My actions:

NP1 - targeted NP1 whiteflame, affirmative on motion

NP2 - targeted NP1 magic, affirmative on motion

NP3 - targeted NP2 whiteflame, negative on motion

Yall are a bunch of actual tards

casey gets lynched today and flips town, there's mechanically at least 1 scum between me and mikal.

I gets lynched today and flip town, there's mechanically at least 1 scum between casey and mikal.

Mikal gets lynched today and flip town, there's mechanically at least 1 scum between me and casey.

There is no distinct utility to lynching anyone of the POE in particular. I can say the words, I can't make yall understand them. Just lynch the scummiest person, which is mikal. He's the only 1 of the 3 who did not soft claim. The only 1 of the 3 with an inherently scummy role, that has appeared as scum in past Pie games. The person who's setting up the mislynch train with the no-utility lynch casey plan. The only person to be soft CC'd - it's kind of ridiculous some of yall have trouble believing 3 investigatives exist in game, yet have no problem believing that a redirector, lighting rod, and bus driver all exist in the game; multiple redirecting roles is a resolution nightmare, there's a reason there's usually no more than 1 per game.

I have nothing else to say, except that my results are useless and may be actively detrimental to out before lylo. My vote is on mikal.

I mean I know mikal's the scum, but if I get lynched today, part of me wants to see casey get lynched tomorrow for betraying the only person risking their own neck against her lynch.

Thoth wrote:

I am leaning slightly towards Casey if only because we get a good result either way: if scum, we caught scum; if town, we confirm their Dreamer PoE. I won’t object to a Bullish lynch based on current information, though.

Oh my gourd not you too

Casey_Risk wrote:

Do you have any results from last night? I just realized that you never said

I do have results but they are useless, possibly detrimental if I out them. They do not incriminate anyone nor do they clear me.

This is the only coalition today to lynch mikal. The other people are scum or lost causes.

The only reason to lynch casey was to set up the mislynch train. No one ever gave any behavioural reasons to lynch casey other than "was inactive DP1".

White flame is scum for believing mikal's logic in any part. He's not dumb enough for that.

VTL: Mikal

Explain to me, mechanically, now that lunatic has flipped town, how many scum are there between me, casey, and mikal??????????????

And then explain to me how many scum would there be between me, lunatic, and mikal, if we lynched casey?????????????????

wow look at that, the 2 people voting with me are dead

I thought I would calm down after 24 hours, but no, I am ANGRIER

Well I would rather lynch casey than myself, however it's not me vs casey right now, it's me vs mikal. I don't want to lynch casey because I town read her. Higher chance of hitting scum if I offer myself up to 50/50 with mikal.

Dude lynching casey to confirm the poe is literally useless. Casey flips town we know there's at least 1 scum between me lunatic mikal.

We lynch one of us, say me, and I flip town, WE STILL KNOW there's at least 1 scum between casey lunatic and mikal.

I can't believe I'm put into this situation where I have to convince mikal that lynching me is actually the correct move from his perspective. And then getting scumread for it.

Dude can you get it through mikal's thick head that no matter if we lynch casey or not, there's at least 1 scum between the 4 of us, casey + her dreamer results. Confirmation of casey does literally nothing math wise. Utility my ass.

whiteflame wrote:

Just seems like we don't agree on how this breaks down at all, so I'll stop here. Others can choose who they agree with, but continuing to discuss the numbers between the two of us clearly isn't getting us anywhere.

You've presented no numbers that contradict mine. If you read #465 then #469 and still can't see the plain math, then you are scum.

whiteflame wrote:

Let's not overstate how many times you've brought up the numerical case here, but my point was and remains that you know you would be one of the people who gets the most attention if the Dream is verified. You can say it's a 1/3 chance, but by next DP, you three will be by far the most scrutinized players. It's not just a numbers game. And yeah, I'll be happy to disagree with Banana here too.

Yeah I see your point, and it supports me dude. Why can't you see that. As scum, I'm taking the 1/2 today, then IF I survive I'm taking a 1/3 tomorrow (probably worse since I just drove a mislynch). Or, I'm taking the free mislynch today, and then a 1/3 (1/2 at best in your imaginary scenario) tomorrow.

Alright here's another way to think about why mikal's "solve" is actually 100% pointless.

There are 4 players, casey, lunatic, mikal, bullish.

casey claims dreamer, 1 or more scum among lunatic, mikal, bullish.

casey dies and flips town -- we know the dreamer results are true, 1+ scum among the remaining 3 players.

casey dies and flips scum -- we know the dreamer results are not true, 0+ scum among the remaining 3 players.

Any one of lunatic, mikal, bullish dies and flips town -- either casey is lying and scum, in which case there is 1+ scum among the remaining 3 players (casey included); or casey is town and telling the truth, in which case there is ALSO 1+ scum among the remaining 3 players.

Any one of lunatic, mikal, bullish dies and flips scum -- we know the dreamer results are likely true, the remaining 3 players get soft confirmed, unless casey is hard bussing.

whiteflame wrote:

Bullish wrote:

You make no sense. So I as scum, instead of taking a mislynch and a 1v2 tomorrow, I take a 1v1 today and have a 50% chance of confirming 3 other players? tf?

If you're scum, you have incentive to make sure we aren't sure whether Casey's role claim is real.

Wrong. As scum I have incentive to lynch town. Super straight forward. If casey's claim turns out real, this gives no advantage, because tomorrow will have 9 players, the pool of dreamer results will have 1/3 scum, and the rest will be 2/6 scum. Town gains no probabilistic advantage. If mikal dies and flips town, it's literally the same -- we know there's at least once scum in the pool of 3 -- casey, me, lunatic. I've been over this 50 times but you refuse to even address it. The only difference between these scenarios is that I put myself on the chopping block in one of them. Banana agrees with me.

If Casey flips town Dreamer, that confirms that at least one of the three players in their Dream is town,

I'm assuming you mean scum

and, let's face it, it will likely put you in a 1v1 situation as people solidify their reads around the three of you.

you can't just make up numbers to make your side look better. I'm making it 1v1 RIGHT NOW, without the benefit of a casey mislynch.

That's not going to remain a 1v2. If you're able to get a lynch on one of the other two players in the Dream and they flip town, that makes Casey's claim more questionable and sets up a 1v2 situation with Casey included. I don't get what's hard to understand here.

I don't get whats so hard to understand for YOU.

guess what's more common on the mafia team, a redirector, which is what mikal claimed.

Mikal wrote:

Yeah one post after I have harping on your thought process non stop. My point is there is no consideration of the utility of a casey lynch and what it provides. Its just a prima facie read

All you do is lie lie lie bro. There's no prima facie read. I explained In my first post on casey the reasons why I make that read.

You make no sense. So I as scum, instead of taking a mislynch and a 1v2 tomorrow, I take a 1v1 today and have a 50% chance of confirming 3 other players? tf?

You lying again, I did not "town lock" casey. I said in #377 "If mikal flips town I would not know how to proceed." If I was town locking casey I would say proceed with lynching lunatic.

I didn't say it was confirmed bro, I used my head to think about it, laid out the reasons why I buy the claim, and then acted on that reasoning, it's not arcane linguistics

Mikal is a massive hypocrite. Look at the "certainty" he speaks with whtieflame's claim.

"We both have redirection style roles"

"White targeted luna and can move all actions to himself"

"Wf also got hit with a vanillaizer"

Oh no! tMI TMi Tmi tMi tmi tmI Tmi TMI!!!