Madoka Magica - Episode 3

Rumi and Zoey were town because of a protag/antag theme split.

I think there are better reasons; let me assemble a list of points that really stick out.

The thing that bothers me the most is that if both pie and wryly are town and we lynch both then we lose the game.

Vote Count

ILikePie5 (2/4) Mag1cman, Wryly

Wryly (2/4) | ILikePie5, Vader

Kohai (1/4) | RexFavilla

Not voting: whiteflame, Kohai

The thing that bothers me the most is that if both pie and wryly are town and we lynch both then we lose the game. 

If we’re both town, I am blacklisting Thoth. I just told him that. It’s a bastard game if there are two people with the same role

The thing that bothers me the most is that if both pie and wryly are town and we lynch both then we lose the game. 

If we’re both town, I am blacklisting Thoth. I just told him that. It’s a bastard game if there are two people with the same role

It's a bastard game anyway with alignment changing roles.

Make up your minds. WE have 90 minutes left in the day phase

It's a bastard game anyway with alignment changing roles. 

I don’t think that’s bastard but you’re entitled to your opinion

Y'all have 150 minutes left, actually

I don’t think that’s bastard but you’re entitled to your opinion

Everyone has their own definitions of bastard. Where I have done most of my hosting and playing (and also staffing) any alignment changing role was bastard and games had to be labeled as such.

TBT if I knew there was an alignment changing role I'd never have signed up for this game.

Make up your minds. WE have 90 minutes left in the day phase 

It ends at 12am CST, so we have 2.5 hours or 150 minutes

Cause he’s your target :)

Nah if he was I wouldn't have gone all in on him, would've at least listed Kohai or Vader as a second and third preference

It ends at 12am CST, so we have 2.5 hours or 150 minutes

Thanks for the correction. I thought it was EST. I will not be here at EOD so I'll be casting my vote within the next half hr. I hate the fact that whiteflame and rex are AWOL at the moment

I should probably use EST in future games since people seem to assume that is what I meant anyway.

Alright, so here's my takeaways from each of the DPs skimming back through the posts Wryly and Pie made:

Wryly

Spent some of DP1 discussing game mechanics, particularly the hidden role and the possibility of pursuing the softclaim of magic/non-magic. Clear she was struggling with reads, but it's DP1. Largely gave into the VTNL.

Started off DP2 claiming she was unrecruitable by virtue of being a boy, did some back-and-forth with Kohai over a lot of those early uncertainties about the contract, hidden claims and what Kohai had actually done. Spent some time focused on getting a claim from Rex at the end of the DP before reluctantly accepting the VTNL.

Began DP3 with the character claim. I'd say this is a ballsy move as scum, though we know they have fake claims available. Good response to the Madoka witch reveal and to Rex's claim (particularly with the follow-up questions), called out that she had an X-shot in response to my sussing Vader over his role on that basis, gave a set of pretty detailed reads and pushed back on Pie's argument town leaning Rex on the basis of the custom role. We eventually get to the 1X BP claim, and then we get into sheer bafflement. Honestly, this all comes off as pretty genuine. Only way I can see Wryly being scum here is if she was literally given 1X BP as a fake claim by Thoth and chose it thinking it would be safe.

If Wryly's OG scum, she's been town-telling exceptionally well almost all game long. If she's the recruit, then she's risking an awful lot by not claiming her actual role. If there's a strategy here that isn't just bastard modding that fucked her over, then I'm not seeing it.

your choice. i think town is capable of doing the math, but there's something to be said about avoiding confusion

I'm working on it as fast as I can.

Intent to vote pie

I'm getting ready to go to focus on a debate argument and then go to bed. It's pretty much a given that if pie or castin flips town then the other is lynched tomorrow. Gun to my head I still think both are town, but I'm more confident on wryly being town than pie.

If Wryly's OG scum, she's been town-telling exceptionally well almost all game long. If she's the recruit, then she's risking an awful lot by not claiming her actual role. If there's a strategy here that isn't just bastard modding that fucked her over, then I'm not seeing it.

We don’t know that scum got fake claims and/or roles. It’s possible they could have just received information to fake claims.

Also she’s played one game as scum and she blew it up herself. We don’t know what her scum behavior is.

We've been dismissing her because of her behavior, which now you need to reevaluate in light of the CC. Countless times someone reeks town but ends up scum (ie me ironically).

If castin is scum is she likely og or recruited?

Intent to vote pie

I'm getting ready to go to focus on a debate argument and then go to bed. It's pretty much a given that if pie or castin flips town then the other is lynched tomorrow. Gun to my head I still think both are town, but I'm more confident on wryly being town than pie.

Are you autistic dude? Did you even read my argument? What’s my future after I get Wryly mislynched as scum?

Explain to me what the point of me CCing here is lmfao. Like use your brain dude. You know you’re fucking town. If I was scum I had an easy lynch on you.

This is literally the exact same shit as the other game where you hard threw. Holy shit. Use your fuckin brain.

Not to state the obvious, but you're asking counsel from the dude who is gonna get you mislynched right after me

The case against Pie:

1. The situation: As it stands, the choice for this DP was between Rex and Kohai. The case against Vader had been refuted, and any pressure against Whiteflame went nowhere. Wryly and I were firmly no-gos. The POE was Rex, Vader, and Kohai, with two scum. The problem is that town has three lynches and can win the game by lynching all three. This means that mafia needs to steal a DP. A successful sac CC works in scum's favor, since a DP spent lynching Wryly means town has to choose between Kohai and Rex in the final 3.
2. The sudden push on Vader. At the start of the game, it was announced that scum has a target. Almost immediately, Pie was on Vader. Last DP, he concluded the OG scum was between Whiteflame and Rex, but this DP, he decided it was between Whiteflame and Vader, disregarding his original points on Vader.
3. The unlikelihood of an organic CC. The recruited scum can just straight claim their character. And the original scum has fake claim help of some kind. Scum needs to have help that isn't a fake role, and needs to have wasted, and needs to have happened to choose a role that is in this game. It's unlikely.
4. The disappearance. After Wryly claimed bulletproof, Pie asked "did you just claim bulletproof?" and then disappeared for a sec, and reappeared shortly to CC. Why not CC on the spot? I think this was Pie looking for a justification for his character being bulletproof, to CC Wryly with. Pie's defense was that he was just seeking clarification. The problem? Wryly claimed bulletproof explicitly. He has no need to seek any clarification.
5. The x-shot discrepancy. Earlier, Pie had sussed Vader over having a 1x. But here, he says he has a 1x bulletproof. His defense was a pedantic difference between passive and active, which I am not buying. If he had 1x of any kind, it is bonkers that he wouldn't at least consider that Vader really is 2x. There's absolutely no reason to sus Vader over being 2x, unless the reasoning is motivated (see point 2).

If castin is scum is she likely og or recruited?

It doesn’t really matter to me tbh because I’ve CCed her. But because of the CC, she is probably OG scum because recruited scum would’ve claimed what they originally had. She probably got information from Thoth towards a fake character claim, but not a role claim.

Are you autistic dude? Did you even read my argument? What’s my future after I get Wryly mislynched as scum?

(1) actually yes

(2) Also yes,

(3) Perhaps castin is the target the mod mentioned earlier

That said, I think and standby my thinking that there's a strong non-zero chance you're both town.

1. The disappearance. After Wryly claimed bulletproof, Pie asked "did you just claim bulletproof?" and then disappeared for a sec, and reappeared shortly to CC. Why not CC on the spot? I think this was Pie looking for a justification for his character being bulletproof, to CC Wryly with. Pie's defense was that he was just seeking clarification. The problem? Wryly claimed bulletproof explicitly. He has no need to seek any clarification.

I don't think this is a strong point. I think pie was wanting to have 100% confirmation before the CC

I have a 1x Bulletproof because my character was saved from a cruel fate by a magic girl's wish.

Wryly, 230

So you’re claiming 1x Bulletproof?

pie, 232

Fuck it, we don’t have time. I am CCing Wryly. I am the 1x Bulletproof. My justification is that I was the only one to survive a car crash and fated to be an orphan

Pie, 238, about ten minutes after "asking for clarification"

It explicit. He doesn't need to ask for clarification. He asked as a placeholder, then he went away and spent time looking for a reason for Mami to be bulletproof.

The situation: As it stands, the choice for this DP was between Rex and Kohai. The case against Vader had been refuted, and any pressure against Whiteflame went nowhere. Wryly and I were firmly no-gos. The POE was Rex, Vader, and Kohai, with two scum. The problem is that town has three lynches and can win the game by lynching all three. This means that mafia needs to steal a DP. A successful sac CC works in scum's favor, since a DP spent lynching Wryly means town has to choose between Kohai and Rex in the final 3.

A) It wasn’t revealed at the beginning of the DP

B) We only have 2 lynches not 3

C) There wasn’t consensus in Pie/Kohai/REF

D) I always take a free Mislynch here, kill Mharman2, and the fight it out tomorrow.

The sudden push on Vader. At the start of the game, it was announced that scum has a target. Almost immediately, Pie was on Vader. Last DP, he concluded the OG scum was between Whiteflame and Rex, but this DP, he decided it was between Whiteflame and Vader, disregarding his original points on Vader.

A) It was revealed middle of DP

B) I explained why I disregarded and removed REF from my pile

C) I was questioning Vader BEFORE the witch thing was revealed. Go back and look

The unlikelihood of an organic CC. The recruited scum can just straight claim their character. And the original scum has fake claim help of some kind. Scum needs to have help that isn't a fake role, and needs to have wasted, and needs to have happened to choose a role that is in this game. It's unlikely.

There’s no guarantee scum got a fake role or any help toward a fake role. It’s just the same as any normal game

The disappearance. After Wryly claimed bulletproof, Pie asked "did you just claim bulletproof?" and then disappeared for a sec, and reappeared shortly to CC. Why not CC on the spot? I think this was Pie looking for a justification for his character being bulletproof, to CC Wryly with. Pie's defense was that he was just seeking clarification. The problem? Wryly claimed bulletproof explicitly. He has no need to seek any clarification.

I wanted to confirm. And if you recall, in the game I was Barbarossa, I waited to CC as well.

The x-shot discrepancy. Earlier, Pie had sussed Vader over having a 1x. But here, he says he has a 1x bulletproof. His defense was a pedantic difference between passive and active, which I am not buying. If he had 1x of any kind, it is bonkers that he wouldn't at least consider that Vader really is 2x. There's absolutely no reason to sus Vader over being 2x, unless the reasoning is motivated (see point 2).

BP is a passive role, not an active role. X-shot BP is not the same thing as X shot Watcher and Redirector

Town case for pie:

If pie is scum then scum pie has several easy mislynch targets: Myself, vader, and possibly rex. Scum pie knows that castin is a nearly impossible mislynch. The only way I can see pie being scum and attempting a YOLO mislynch on wryly is the target mentioned in post # 62. I can only see him pulling off such a massive YOLO if they desperately need the 1x Permanent Roleblock or the 1x Rolecop to win the game. I don't see scum pie being able to pull this off unless he has a very strong partner (possibly whiteflame) that can carry the game to the end.

Town case for castin

Overall their play has been extremely consistent and townie. Her claims do check out both mechanically and canonically.

There's a very strong non-zero chance they're both town. That is what I'm struggling with

The whole “delayed CC” is a nothingburger

A) I had soft claimed I wanted to wait till DP3 to claim cause I wanted to bait the NK

B) When I was Barbarossa in REF’s game, I delayed CCed there too.

Overall their play has been extremely consistent and townie.

…compared to what? You only have her town play to compare against. That’s a false equivalency. I’ve capitalized on it a million times.

Her claims do check out both mechanically and canonically. 

Wym mechanically? And mine checks out canonically too