Madoka Magica - Episode 3

Right now I’d probably say my top scumread is Vader. The Redirector doesn’t make much sense here from a town

Hm. I don’t fully agree with the setup analysis here. Like I can see where Pie’s coming from here: Roles helpful to mafia are gained upon recruitment, Mag1cman’s flip proves that. But is that a usually, or an always?

Consider this: If Vader were given a normal town power role, you have the Kyubey/Walpergisnact (see my DP1 speculation) plus a magical girl versus four other magical girls. There’s still a lot of town power to counter.

But, if you give townies roles like redirector, or ascetic, you create a bit of chaos and weaken town power. And if those townies do get recruited, they’re even stronger as mafia, which can counterbalance the fact that said chaos is removed from town.

This ain’t to say anything for sure, but it is to say that I think setup analysis is undesirable here.

It just seems like negative utility that should be waived every night. 

I absolutely hate the fact that Supa didn’t use his ability last night.

You can’t have both of these. Pick one.

He could’ve redirected who he thought was scum onto someone he also thought could be scum. He could’ve verified WF’s role as well. Doesn’t make sense to waive here.

I do think it is correct to assume that his role will be more useful NP3 (when he’ll have more info) so I can’t hate on his decision, especially when he could’ve caused so much chaos tonight, at a time where we’re looking for all the night info we can get, since no lynches have happened.

Redirectong scum onto scum depends on him nailing two scumreads. The point about verifying Whiteflame’s role is something to consider, however; I think it’s the only way you can critique his choice. At any rate, I still don’t hate the choice he made.

The Contract Cop and Inspector make sense together. Doctor is flipped. Wryly is behaviorally very town.

I don’t see of any synergy between contact cop and inspector. Two investigative abilities that investigate two different things.

And yeah no one’s scumreading Wryly at this point.

NP1: At least one player visited Pie.

NP2: No one visited Pie.

Remember that Vader says he redirected Mikal to Mag1cman DP1.

I don’t see of any synergy between contact cop and inspector. Two investigative abilities that investigate two different things.

Two very weak investigative roles is my point. I buy REF’s role because I’m relatively confident Thoth used custom roles especially if he use hidden mechanics. I also remember him asking if Luna was the only one that used custom roles and he said he was gonna change that.

Thoughts on post 90?

Was going to respond to Ref's post directly, but I'll address it in part in response to Mag1c's response tagging me.

@Rex

I'm Junko Kaname, I'm the mom of Madoka and Tatsuya.

So the only claimed adult so far.

I'm the contract cop. I can target a player and learn whether they accepted a witch contract.

It's fitting for this game at least. Assuming there isn't another investigative role beyond Casey/Mikal/Mag2c's, then I can buy there being something else in play. Hard to say why Thoth would design a role to check something that the scum recruit could have just told the truth about, though I guess Kyuubey at least would necessarily have to lie.

@Mag1c

Both results are public knowledge at the time of this claim.

Yeah, and I imagine virtually everyone told the truth about their response to the contract, with the obvious exception of Kyuubey. Giving results that just say what they said only tells us who they aren't. Can't say I understand the choice to target you given your character was revealed already.

@Whiteflame, was Junko offered a contract, or may have been offered one in the past, in the show/movie? I don’t see anything about it in the wiki. At least for Hitomi, there was a writer’s comment on what her wish would’ve been. I can understand some lore stretching for the game mechanics, but I want to know how far of a stretch this would be.

Nope. Both Junko and Hitomi are outliers in this respect, since they canonically have not received any contract over the course of the series. Like you said, the writer has discussed Hitomi directly as a possible candidate. For Junko, it's more of a strong theory, as Junko has seemed to know on some level what her daughter Madoka was going through during the series. There are some pretty strong theories suggesting that she may have been approached when she was Madoka's age, but that's about it.

I’m Kyoko

Her father kills his family and himself, except for her. She’s made an orphan and forced to develop street smarts, making her more observant of the world around her. Hence inspector.

That tracks pretty well. We learned a good bit about Kyoko's past and it's pretty brutal. She does seem to have some pretty strong insight into other people as well.

I think there is a confirmed OG scum in Vader/Whiteflame. The headache a mod would have to deal with if Vader redirected Doctor or Inspector to Ascetic just doesn’t make sense from a game design perspective especially if Thoth is counting a Redirector as having two visits

I think this is manageable. You just make a decision on this while making the setup, or during the game if you get caught with your pants down.

You’d have to discard your previous theory of Rex/Whiteflame OG scum, and defeat your past arguments for that and for Vader not being OG scum.

This whole setup and the moving parts involved seems like a headache to me; i don't think Thoth is afraid of complexity, including managing doctors, inspectors, and redirectors.

Mami Tomoe

Any particular reason you're holding back from role claiming at this point? The character makes sense - last of the 5 magical girls in this series - but you're the only one in that bunch who hasn't role claimed.

Right now I’d probably say my top scumread is Vader. The Redirector doesn’t make much sense here from a town perspective. It just seems like negative utility that should be waived every night.

The redirector role does stand out. No one else has an X-Shot role and it's an odd pairing with Sayaka.

I absolutely hate the fact that Supa didn’t use his ability last night. He could’ve redirected who he thought was scum onto someone he also thought could be scum. He could’ve verified WF’s role as well. Doesn’t make sense to waive here. The Contract Cop and Inspector make sense together. Doctor is flipped. Wryly is behaviorally very town.

I get at least part of this as well. Not sure how he plans to use it later if at all, but if he saw it as negative utility or wasn't sure how it would pan out, he should have tested it on me.

I think there is a confirmed OG scum in Vader/Whiteflame. The headache a mod would have to deal with if Vader redirected Doctor or Inspector to Ascetic just doesn’t make sense from a game design perspective especially if Thoth is counting a Redirector as having two visits

I agree that it doesn't make much sense for both of our roles to be present, a lot of potential for role stoppage in there. Thoth would have to be balancing quite a bit of utility to make that work.

I think this is manageable. You just make a decision on this while making the setup, or during the game if you get caught with your pants down.

You’d have to discard your previous theory of Rex/Whiteflame OG scum, and defeat your past arguments for that and for Vader not being OG scum.

I think I already did REF is either converted scum or town after that claim. That leaves Whiteflame. Supa and you are the only ones that are wishy washy at that point cause behaviorally I don’t like Supa, but his action does match your result. The problem here is that we don’t know how the stupid recruiting mechanic works, and there’s no way for us to work around that.

I've already stayed up later going over this than I'd like. I'll chime back into this discussion in the morning, likely after torah study (yes, I do go to those every now and then).

Any particular reason you're holding back from role claiming at this point? The character makes sense - last of the 5 magical girls in this series - but you're the only one in that bunch who hasn't role claimed.

I’d prefer to claim tomorrow.

The redirector role does stand out. No one else has an X-Shot role and it's an odd pairing with Sayaka.

Also true. Didn’t think of that one.

I agree that it doesn't make much sense for both of our roles to be present, a lot of potential for role stoppage in there. Thoth would have to be balancing quite a bit of utility to make that work.

Exactly

If Rex is telling the truth, it seems like he's now a leading scum target, and our doctor is dead. If he's lying, contract cop seems like a great fake claim, allowing you to guide suspicion away from the real recruit. Either way, I'm not happy.

It’s a vanilla game at this point. All behavior

I have an x-shot. He wouldn't be the only one.

Claiming Sayaka 2x Redirector DP2 seems like a risky claim for scum. Even if scum were given Sayaka as a fake claim, claiming Redirector seems ballsy since it could potentially be disproven. Unless he was fake claiming Sayaka but straight claiming Redirector. But that wouldn't address your skepticism with Redirector even being in the game.

My head's pounding. I'm signing off for today.

Very interesting

I think I already did REF is either converted scum or town after that claim. That leaves Whiteflame. Supa and you are the only ones that are wishy washy at that point cause behaviorally I don’t like Supa, but his action does match your result. The problem here is that we don’t know how the stupid recruiting mechanic works, and there’s no way for us to work around that.

This doesn’t defeat your previous point on Vader, and I think I have good reasoning of my own in my read of him from yesterday.

I’m thinking Rex’s claim is more likely than not, completely fake.

As for the recruitment; I spitballed this DP1, but I’m thinking scum is Walpergisnacht/recruited magical girl.

In the series, Kyubey orchestrates the conflict between magical girls and witches for his own goals, kinda like how Thoth is running this game. So Thoth = Kyubey for extra flavor.

And the recruitment is mod-run, I think. Could be random, but it’s possible scum has some input for balance (like choosing from the candidates who accepted the contract), but I don’t think scum pressed a big red “recruit people” button.

Honestly, the announcement of a mechanic where scum has to get a specific person lynched, combined with the push on Vader, makes me feel more confident in my reads on both Vader and Pie.

Pie’s behavior has become more sus to me this DP. I don’t like Rex’s claim. And I can’t forget about Kohai.

I’m 99% sure we win this game just by lynching Kohai/Pie/Rex, any order.

I want a bit more assurance on Whiteflame; I think that’s about it.

Oh right. I tagged you because i was gonna float the idea of you and I both using our roles to test Whiteflame.

I actually don’t like it. Confirming Whiteflame’s role does nothing to prove his affiliation.

My town read on Wryly got even stronger. Didn’t think that was possible.

unvote

Be back later

Yeah, and I imagine virtually everyone told the truth about their response to the contract, with the obvious exception of Kyuubey. Giving results that just say what they said only tells us who they aren't. Can't say I understand the choice to target you given your character was revealed already.

Why would that matter? You can accept or reject the contract whether or not your character is revealed.

It's fitting for this game at least. Assuming there isn't another investigative role beyond Casey/Mikal/Mag2c's, then I can buy there being something else in play. Hard to say why Thoth would design a role to check something that the scum recruit could have just told the truth about, though I guess Kyuubey at least would necessarily have to lie.

I'm not sure what happens if I target Kyuubey.

Still down to lynch Kohai.

VTL Kohai

Since you know I was honest about accepting the contract this proves that I’m not original scum and that I have been fully honest and transparent

serious question for you: If the contract went through and my alignment actually changed why would I admit it on the very first post of day 2? This makes zero sense from a scum player. If I was scum here never in a million years would I have made that post

VTL Vader

I agree with pie that there’s confirmed scum in Vader and whiteflame. Whiteflame is basically conf ascetic and so town redirect or makes no sense

I agree with pie that there’s confirmed scum in Vader and whiteflame. Whiteflame is basically conf ascetic and so town redirect or makes no sense

How is he a confirmed Ascetic

Whiteflame is basically conf ascetic

TMI, I don't recall his role being confirmed?

That fact that one of these people has to be town…

Read the precious day phase where I asked the mod a few questions about ascetics. He basically confirmed an ascetic was in the game.