Amber Mafia

A-Bleys wrote:

A-Gerard wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

yeah what even is this

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/57/amber-mafia?comment_number=121

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/57/amber-mafia?comment_number=122

bleys dude lets buddy

Yeah Gerard and Brand both seem scummy to me. Brand for the mass claim float, Gerard for the role PM OGI and weird reactions - just seems like scum trying to scumhunt knowing it's safe and will produce nothing.

I don't think my analysis has been completely OGI. Again, lurking isn't OGI. Suspecting someone of a slip made on context that should happen in a mafia PM rather than a DP is not OGI.

That said, is it really that out of character for me to have OGI be a factor in my reads? I townread Rex HARD in the last game specifically because they were added to the game late, and turns out they were actually fuckin town, imagine that!

I don't know who any of you are and tbh I'm not going to waste time trying to figure it out.

You shouldn't need to know people's identities to be able to form solid reads either way.

A-Gerard wrote:

Reads:

A-Gerard- Towniest town mofo to exist in this god damn game

A-Bleys- Null- Typical behavior from Bleys so far, nothing out of the ordinary. This person should be easier to identify as town as the game progresses. I know this persons town and scum tells, pretty well I feel like, so I am on the lookout for something to hint me in either direction, however I don't expect to see a ton of that this early.

A-Brand- Slgiht Scum- Normalish behavior from this individual so far, mostly fluff as usua in the beginning. Here's where I think there was a scum slip: He is straight up lying about the timeline of the decrypt thing, and the context of it, because he used Rot-13 to say "I hate cryptography" literally right after Mago made the message about cryptogrophy. What does this mean? I think this individual scum slipped lol. Here's my theory about what happened:

Brand asks the mod in the mafia PM if cryptography is allowed. The mod answers yes. Then either because he felt the need to clarify of his own volition, or because Brand asked him to, Mago posts that cryptography is allowed. Not even a full two minutes go by before Brand makes the the cryptography message in Rot-13. While yes, I am considering the possibility that the way he explained it post 236 actually happened and this was a conversation that happened in the DM's and there was some very awkward timing after that with them both posting at the same time. But post 236 seems a bit overtly defensive as well. Considering the massive scum slip this person made in the previous game, I can see this person being extremely on edge about doing it again. I can see them straight up asking the mod to cover for them to set up something like this to make them look town. Either way, the whole thing feels odd, and the reaction to Random pointing out the timeline inconsistency felt immediately defensive. Also the excuse in 224 kind of lowkey makes no sense to me. If you ISO brand, there doesn't appear to be a "mistyped" post that could possibly be looked at as being a cypher. At least I don't see it, so if this person would like to clarify what post it was, be my guest. In the mean time, it looks like it happened in another PM and if it did, it makes no sense why this happened in a town DM if you are randomly asking about rules regarding cryptography. It seems like there was some discussion around whether this should be used in some regard in the game for manipulation purposes, because this whole conversation just feels faked as fuck.

A-Caine- Null- So far most of their posts have been about the new bot and features they have added which are genuinely really cool, would like to see some more game related content from this individual. The constant repeating that they are against mass claiming is weird, no one is suggesting a mass claim. A claim was pushed from two players exactly, one with a history of having bad fake claims, the other with a history of burst of inactivity. Nothing that wierd about any of that so far. Lots of posts calling out OGI, which I just hate in general when people do this. Let the mod fucking decide whats OGI, whats bannable, and what should and shouldn't be done. Also this logic comes across as extremely dismissive of the point the "OGI" posts are trying to accomplish. I disagree that the timestamp thing was OGI because it was the equivalent of calling out people for lurking behavior, which is a common scum tell. And the stuff about cryptography and DM's with Brand could indicate messages that show communication in another thread. Why didn't you call it OGI when we lynched thoth/alyssa for the mafia discord communication in Mikals game, but when we do the same thing here, all of a sudden its OGI? I am hesitant to call any of this scum behavior just for being inconsistent however. Being kind of silly =/= Being scum. I will need more overall behavior to analyze this individual though so I encourage you to post more game stuff than just self glaze about your features. We love the features. I'll glaze the shit out of you in a private unrelated game DM about it if you want. But lets lock in fam.

A-Deidre- Null/scum- This person is scum. I have repeatedly stated I am not good at reading this player. I tend to townread them every time and it fucks me every time, so I am going to reset how I view this player, and just assume they are scum and everything they say is scummy until they do something significant to prove otherwise. I am partially memeing, but I am being for reals as well. I think this person is a great target for investigations, and I will probably hold them as a high value pressure focus unless they do something significant like in the last game with their pressure and theme focus to tell me otherwise. Also in general would like to see more from this person, but I know they tend to do big bulkier style posts during periods when they are made available, so it's not a huge rush. But yeah, for now, scum read by default.

A-Flora- Slight Scum- The Caine pressure for a claim made sense for this person. The Martin pressure, slightly extra. Maybe because they caught them as scum recently, but this person complied immediately, and now they are just straight up voting them for their claim.

I thought Martin was someone else. That someone else is probably Llewella

It feels lazy, but it also feels like something scum Fiona probably thinks they can get away with because "I always do this". While slightly true, not all the way true. It's not like we haven't seen multiple vanilla claims multiple times before, and I have reason to believe there is probably more than one VT in this game considering the host comes from MU where multiple vanillas is very common in games. Anyways it is a kind of early vote for Fiona so we will see if their reads develop in time and they try to push something stronger, but I can see this person also thinking he has two easy mislynches on the table that he can easily explain his way out of by saying "I would have done this as town too". Which I don't know if that is entirely true since we've seen this person town read millers many many times despite claiming they want to policy lynch them. Overall this player is making a bad starting impression on me, but I'll let them cook.

Statistically the odds of scum claiming Vanilla are high. I’m going to stick to my strategy. You agreed with Caine. I just asked Martin to claim cause I thought they were someone else. But even assuming that half of town (let’s say 6) is VT and all 3 scum claiming Vanilla, you’re looking at a 33% chance of outright catching scum

A-Flora- Null- 0 posts so far, probably unaware the game exists, indicating its unlikely they received a mafia PM. However there is a certain player who I know for a fact would be busy and purposefully lurk the first day phase, so if that's this person, could be something to look into. But considering there's others who haven't posted, I'll just leave it null and move on.

A-Julian- Null- 0 posts so far, so logic applies from flora.

A-Llewella- Null/Scum- Made a whopping three posts, one was a random vote, one says they aren't going to do anything, and the third Caine for wagoning, which is kind of exactly what he just did. I think I know who this is though, and this feels like a weak entry for a comeback game if they are town. Not that this person has ever really had a strong town game, but I want more.

A-Martin- Null/ Slight town- This person claimed immediately when asked, this is a town tell for this person to claim early. Also after just being lynched in another game, I feel like as scum they would be more reticent to claim immediately something like VT, especially after it's already been claimed just a few posts before. And like I said above, I think there is a high likelihood this host included multiple vanillas given the site they hail from.

A-Oberon- Null- This person actually has some decent opening posts to read into. However I know this person is capable of deep manipulation tactics. While I want to town read that they are immediately coming after me, I also literally just had a conversation with this person about them following attacking strong players in their bingo card where they admitted this is something they do, so I can see them trying to play into that for consistency. This is a player I will have to keep eyes on as the game progresses, and I will have a hard time reading them in general, after seeing how well they play as scum. That said, they are completely null for me. I do feel this persons town behavior in the past has been pretty easy to identify so I am looking for certain tells.

A-Random- Slight town- I like this persons posts so far, they feel very town to me so far. Its what I would expect from their town game at least. This person I think has gotten way better at scum over the years, so it's something I will have to be open to changing my mind about as the game progresses, but in the meantime, I like the fact that they had trouble identifying certain people but seemed to figure it out shortly after, seems in character for them assuming they are town. I don't think they set it up to look that way now, though initially I had the thought. But I am mostly town reading this individual because they caught onto the same thing with random as I did. They aren't aggressively pushing the read but you can tell it pinged them as scummy. If I am town and came to that conclusion as well, it makes me think they came to this conlusion from a place of genuine nature as well.

Anyways, I think that is everyone. I have every person nailed down so far I think minus the two who haven't posted, and POE kind of makes them one of the two other people who haven't posted, which should be easy enough to identify based on their posting styles soon after they make their entrance to the game. Then we can go from their with regards to reading them and their behavior as it applies to their metas, and context of the game.

I don’t like #285 from Martin

There is a certain player in this game who I know for a fact would delay posting on purpose if they were scum as a combination of being busy and for strategical purposes, as they have done it with me before in past scum games. So I am not willing to give inactives a pass this time around.

VTL: A-Fiona

A-Gerard wrote:

u seem a bit obsessed with gerard this game, it comes off as a bit defensive from ur interactions

I mentioned you as a town read and now it feels like your buddying me lol. Hmm....

im not buddying you just pointing out that his only contbrbution so far has been to kind of tunnel u and he was defensive earlier too

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (3/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Llewella (p#222), A-Bleys (p#232)

A-Llewella (2/7): A-Brand (p#6), A-Oberon (p#273)

A-Martin (1/7): A-Flora (p#199)

A-Flora (1/7): A-Caine (p#290)

A-Fiona (1/7): A-Gerard (p#334)

Not Voting (4): A-Deirdre, A-Fiona, A-Julian, A-Martin (p#171)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 2 days, 17 hours.

A-Gerard wrote:

Gotta say, not a fan of your entry to the game so far. It’s early so I’ll let you cook. But the type of posts you’ve made so far almost make me wanna buy the theory mentioned that people in the scum PM are roleplaying as each other.

How so?

That or you are going for a heavy RVS style of play which is also out of character.

I don’t think it’s RVS. First player we both know why. Second player, I was mistaken on who it was.

Would like a thought and reads post from you at some point.

Yes

A-Flora wrote:

A-Martin wrote:

fine lol. u love lynching me.

Why do you take this to mean only you?

u placed ur vote on me lol

A-Flora wrote:

A-Martin wrote:

i always do...

I thought u were someone else lol oops

oh ok

A-Caine wrote:

A-Gerard wrote:

Gotta say, not a fan of your entry to the game so far. It’s early so I’ll let you cook. But the type of posts you’ve made so far almost make me wanna buy the theory mentioned that people in the scum PM are roleplaying as each other. That or you are going for a heavy RVS style of play which is also out of character.

Would like a thought and reads post from you at some point.

Agree. I hate how they were so enthusiastic about lynching me on post #125 and completely dropped it after I claimed and you moved on.

Yes. Gotta continue the game

A-Flora wrote:

I don’t like #285 from Martin

why

A-Gerard wrote:

There is a certain player in this game who I know for a fact would delay posting on purpose if they were scum as a combination of being busy and for strategical purposes, as they have done it with me before in past scum games. So I am not willing to give inactives a pass this time around.

VTL: A-Fiona

Interesting observation. I’ll keep an eye on them.

A-Gerard wrote:

A-Flora wrote:

A-Gerard wrote:

Gotta say, not a fan of your entry to the game so far. It’s early so I’ll let you cook. But the type of posts you’ve made so far almost make me wanna buy the theory mentioned that people in the scum PM are roleplaying as each other. That or you are going for a heavy RVS style of play which is also out of character.

Would like a thought and reads post from you at some point.

RVS style is what generates activity, and I would disagree that it is out of character. I’ll reread and post my reads. The vote count spam is pissing me off tho

That's kind of my point though, is that it is in character enough for you to use it as an excuse for a mislynch "I would do this as town" even though I don't think that's neccesarily true. I have seen you drop RVS or policy style lynches shortly after adopting them after changing your read before. So it comes down to whether I am just jumping the gun instead of letting you cook here, or you are actually wanting to just straight up lynch one of the VT's.

I think you should let me cook. You pick the third person you want a claim from. Would bet good money they claim VT, and then have the 3 duke it out. Force everyone on the sidelines to a take a position. Max reads, little role risk, 33% chance of getting scum.

A-Caine wrote:

A-Flora wrote:

A-Random wrote:

One of the two who claimed could likely be scum. I think the latter. Not sure what vt is but im assuming that's the vanilla in this game and scum will be forced to claim that.

Thats the thing though, if enough people claim VT, it increases the odds that there’s scum in there. 13 player game so probably 10-3 of 9-3-1. Probably 4-5 vanillas max is what I would guess. You’re already half way there

1. This game may have far more VTs than normal games on here.

We’re talking 6 townies as VT. That’s more than half of the town. Add 3 scum who would claim Vanilla, so 3/9 is 33%.

2. The more VTs claim the more it helps mafia narrow down the Pr hunt.

Assuming the 3 we force are all town, yes. But we’re going to force people to claim anyways. With 3 VT claims, 33% is a good risk to reward ratio

3. There’s no reason to think mafia can’t gambit by claiming a PR.

I mean, they can, but they’re gonna have to prove it later in the game and can be CCed, especially this early in the game.

I thought Martin was someone else. That someone else is probably Llewella

I dont want to take the bull by the horns here, but I think I know who Llewella is too. XD

Statistically the odds of scum claiming Vanilla are high. I’m going to stick to my strategy. You agreed with Caine. I just asked Martin to claim cause I thought they were someone else. But even assuming that half of town (let’s say 6) is VT and all 3 scum claiming Vanilla, you’re looking at a 33% chance of outright catching scum

The hard thing with you is I know you as scum would say the same thing here and just post justify and debate the reason you were right here. It's not the logic that pings me, its the motive and behavior around it. Coming off a game where I observed you as confirmed town, I got to see you play in a way that was much more conservative and open minded, maybe with the exception of helz. You were asking questions and trying to make it look like you were giving everyone the benefit of the doubt, even opting to lynch shining over banana when you had a jailkeep on her and a stopped night kill. So now your telling me your vote isn't RVS but are still defending the logic behind the vote, so that's kind of indicative of scum Flora here to me. Again I'll let you cook, but if you stick to your guns here it might just look scummier to me ngl.

Anyways you didn't comment on any of my analysis regarding the potential scum slip from Brand on the timeline of his mentioning the cryptogrophy. I would like to hear your opinion on that.

A-Martin wrote:

A-Flora wrote:

I don’t like #285 from Martin

why

Its passive aggressive, which I got the vibe from you previously

I think you should let me cook. You pick the third person you want a claim from. Would bet good money they claim VT, and then have the 3 duke it out. Force everyone on the sidelines to a take a position. Max reads, little role risk, 33% chance of getting scum.

I don't really want to pressure someone for a "claim" first. I have a couple of leads I want to pursue based on behavioral things I've noticed, a potential slip with Brand, and I want the inactives to post before we start demanding claims, but if their answers aren't satisfactory to me I am more than happy with that road leading to a claim.

Its passive aggressive, which I got the vibe from you previously

i dont see that post as passive aggressive, just pointing out something hypocritical they said. bcuz it litrly is. makes me wonder why they are calling someone else out for it if they are doing it too ya know

A-Gerard wrote:

I thought Martin was someone else. That someone else is probably Llewella

I dont want to take the bull by the horns here, but I think I know who Llewella is too. XD

Yep annoying.

Statistically the odds of scum claiming Vanilla are high. I’m going to stick to my strategy. You agreed with Caine. I just asked Martin to claim cause I thought they were someone else. But even assuming that half of town (let’s say 6) is VT and all 3 scum claiming Vanilla, you’re looking at a 33% chance of outright catching scum

The hard thing with you is I know you as scum would say the same thing here and just post justify and debate the reason you were right here. It's not the logic that pings me, its the motive and behavior around it. Coming off a game where I observed you as confirmed town, I got to see you play in a way that was much more conservative and open minded, maybe with the exception of helz.

I don’t think I was conservative by any means. I was very liberal with the way I played because I knew I had a trump cars in my pocket of revealing myself. It was all to generate more reads. I could play differently as town because I knew I could prove myself as town at any given point. It’s an apples to oranges situation here. I knew I had the authority to do what I want and had the credibility, which I don’t have here.

You were asking questions and trying to make it look like you were giving everyone the benefit of the doubt, even opting to lynch shining over banana when you had a jailkeep on her and a stopped night kill. So now your telling me your vote isn't RVS but are still defending the logic behind the vote, so that's kind of indicative of scum Flora here to me. Again I'll let you cook, but if you stick to your guns here it might just look scummier to me ngl.

If you’re asking why I specifically targeted Caine and Martin, then yes, it wasn’t really RVS albeit I assumed Martin was someone else, but if you’re going to assume that I wouldn’t do this as both scum and town, it should be NAI to you, not scummy.

Anyways you didn't comment on any of my analysis regarding the potential scum slip from Brand on the timeline of his mentioning the cryptogrophy. I would like to hear your opinion on that.

I did. I think it’s very WIFOMy considering the slip in the previous game. Remember that he started similarly about soft claims I think. I’m fine getting a claim from him and then having everyone duke it out, but Llewella is also another option cause uk him too.

I don’t think I was conservative by any means. I was very liberal with the way I played because I knew I had a trump cars in my pocket of revealing myself. It was all to generate more reads. I could play differently as town because I knew I could prove myself as town at any given point. It’s an apples to oranges situation here. I knew I had the authority to do what I want and had the credibility, which I don’t have here.

Doesn't change the fact that you still had enough room for doubt about Banana to lynch shining over her, which again shows some level of being more conservative.

If you’re asking why I specifically targeted Caine and Martin, then yes, it wasn’t really RVS albeit I assumed Martin was someone else, but if you’re going to assume that I wouldn’t do this as both scum and town, it should be NAI to you, not scummy.

No I know its NAI. This is one of those reads that will develop based on further actions with this, IE if you end the day phase just being okay with a VT lynch without much other factors coming into play, because you can easily just dismiss this argument by saying "It was NAI" and bam you got yourself a potential easy mislynch, assuming shes not scum.

I did. I think it’s very WIFOMy considering the slip in the previous game. Remember that he started similarly about soft claims I think. I’m fine getting a claim from him and then having everyone duke it out, but Llewella is also another option cause uk him too.

Llewella is one of those players that thinks they are much stronger than they actually are, so maybe they think this whole "resistance to comply" thing will look good for them or help their case at all. I don't think it will. I am not sold they are scum by any means, but they definitely need to give up the "Im hard act" or they can fuck around and find out the same way everyone else does before getting lynched for obstinance.

I am going to go out on a limb here and assume people aren't RPing as each other. I think it would be pretty obvious if someone was trying to mimick you if you are town and you would probably end up calling that out. And for scum, it just seems like more work than it's worth. I don't really see the payoff either. Someone like Flora having to tell someone like Deidre for example how exactly to respond to every post they would normally respond to seems like a lot of effort to accomplish virtually nothing, if the person is scum read its not like doing that would change their affiliation. Kind of makes no sense to RP as someone else here unless your just trying to troll.

Can you send an activity ping to Llewella, Fiona, Julian and Oberon please?

im not buddying you just pointing out that his only contbrbution so far has been to kind of tunnel u and he was defensive earlier too

Fair.

Do you have a question for me?

Do you have a question for me?

Sure.

Do you have any thoughts on occurrences in the game so far?

I see your vote is on Brand. Why?

Any reads, general activity or contributions would be helpful.

There is a total of seven town roles listed in the set ups thread. With 12 players, 3-4 being scum max, that leaves a total of 8-9 Town roles total factoring in a potential third party. I think it's safe to say that this is confirmation that there is at the very least, more than one Vanilla Townie. Though if there ends up being more than 3 claims of VT, I think it would be safe to say there is a scum among them.

I highly anticipate the fit about claim pushing from Flora that we will inevitably receive from one of Fiona or Julian lol

Town:

Flora - Obviously

Lean Town:

Gerard - I think the PM stuff was NAI. I could see him doing this as scum as a WIFOM thing to try to garner town cred because it brings unnecessary attention. The town side though is the interaction with Brand. Probably the bane of Brand’s existence.

Caine - Feels town just based on vibes and the sheer wagoning that he’s doing. The MO fits the previous game as well.

Null:

Bleys - I feel like there aren’t that many AI posts from him. I can see the scumread in Gerard even though I think it’s NAI. The focus on team members faking each other’s styles is a bit weird though. It’s pretty easy to see based on writing style, who is who.

Deirdre - Not much from them. Hoping to hear some more original thought. Right now feels a little redundant with what everyone has said.

Fiona - Hasn’t posted I think

Julian - Hasn’t posted I think

Oberon - Not much to go off. The buddying of Bleys feels like they’re likely not a pair though

FOS:

Random - Not much to go off of. I don’t like their first post. Shoot Brand just cause he asked to discuss the topic of mass claim or not. If he has said we should mass claim, I would agree with Random’s post, but the reaction seems disproportionate to the statement from Brand.

Tilt Scum:

Llewella - I think these pseudo-vanilla games make it easier to lurk as scum and avoid posting. The posts this person has made just seem snarky for a bit until fading into no existence because other shit pops up

Martin - I think the passive aggressiveness is what I picked up on last game. It was a tiny push, yet an obvious push. Sort of like seeing what sticks. It didn’t stick on me obviously, but with someone like Llewella, odds are greater if sticks.

Lean Scum:

Brand - I think he is trying a little too hard in the game with the crypto gate. The MO feels very similar with the previous game, and I absolutely see him doing something similar like that game and then saying “I would never do that.”

There is 5 fucking third party roles listed in the setup list. If there are no third parties in this game, that would be such a huge troll from the host lol.

A-Gerard wrote:

I don’t think I was conservative by any means. I was very liberal with the way I played because I knew I had a trump cars in my pocket of revealing myself. It was all to generate more reads. I could play differently as town because I knew I could prove myself as town at any given point. It’s an apples to oranges situation here. I knew I had the authority to do what I want and had the credibility, which I don’t have here.

Doesn't change the fact that you still had enough room for doubt about Banana to lynch shining over her, which again shows some level of being more conservative.

I don’t think that was conservative. It was calculated based on reads of dead townie ie Vader and Helz + the general idea that Banana would be more active than Shining. Plus we had the lynches to spare. I was sus of Banana when everyone was townreading her, and it won us the game

If you’re asking why I specifically targeted Caine and Martin, then yes, it wasn’t really RVS albeit I assumed Martin was someone else, but if you’re going to assume that I wouldn’t do this as both scum and town, it should be NAI to you, not scummy.

No I know its NAI. This is one of those reads that will develop based on further actions with this, IE if you end the day phase just being okay with a VT lynch without much other factors coming into play, because you can easily just dismiss this argument by saying "It was NAI" and bam you got yourself a potential easy mislynch, assuming shes not scum.

I’ve already stated my plan, and you havent said whether you want to do it or not.

I did. I think it’s very WIFOMy considering the slip in the previous game. Remember that he started similarly about soft claims I think. I’m fine getting a claim from him and then having everyone duke it out, but Llewella is also another option cause uk him too.

Llewella is one of those players that thinks they are much stronger than they actually are, so maybe they think this whole "resistance to comply" thing will look good for them or help their case at all. I don't think it will. I am not sold they are scum by any means, but they definitely need to give up the "Im hard act" or they can fuck around and find out the same way everyone else does before getting lynched for obstinance.

Lol, Brands is also a target. See my reads tho. FOS and under is who I’m fine with pursuing atm