Periodic Table of Elements Mafia - DP2

So it's been mentioned a few times, mainly in defense of both Bullish at this point, that he would have reason to pursue a lynch on Casey this DP if he was scum. I believe someone mentioned before that Luna looked better for not pursuing the lynch on Casey when he had the chance. I partially agree with the latter. I disagree with the former.

In the latter case, Luna wouldn't have known Casey's role, but as scum, he would have had incentive to pursue an easy mislynch and Casey looked like a prime opportunity in that respect. I don't think he necessarily would have taken that over the Magoroth mislynch, but at the very least, he didn't take advantage of an opportunity when it presented itself.

In the former case, I think the way Bullish is painting this doesn't make sense. Lynching Casey as scum would mean knowing that the flip would implicate him, or at least put him in a three-person POE pool, and his talk about Casey being dead next DP don't track with scum incentive to keep town guessing about whether Casey's results are real or not. I've played as scum with claimed Dreamers before. You don't have to kill them to prevent them from using their role, visits will do and scum clearly have lots of options on that front. So this notion that somehow Bullish looks clean for not joining the Casey wagon (which has never had more than 3 people on it anyway) is just beyond me.

Yeah one post after I have harping on your thought process non stop. My point is there is no consideration of the utility of a casey lynch and what it provides. Its just a prima facie read

Helz wrote:

Kohai should not be dead. I figured I am basically the town protective on crack. Every role to include killing roles should have been neutralized that visited Kohai last night. My best guess is that I was redirected or they were swapped before my action hit. We do not have a formal OoO to work with which makes it more difficult to figure out but host did confirm to me that I stop normal killing roles. Figured Mags function would have been an exception but unless Mafia has some strongman or equal role to what Mag did its simply a redirect that happened.

Maybe, but you're not an investigative, which is what the mafia team is always after. You're a prime target for a redirector, for example. I've seen the comparisons to the CoD Mafia setup already. If we run with that, mafia has a redirector. If not, redirector is still fairly common around here.

Casey_Risk wrote:

Does anyone here have any reason to TR Shining?

The answer is obviously not. He hasn't really given any reason for me to townread him with a combination of too few posts and not enough insight into his thinking in those posts. It's not unusual for him to be like this as either side, so I don't have a solid read on him yet.

You make no sense. So I as scum, instead of taking a mislynch and a 1v2 tomorrow, I take a 1v1 today and have a 50% chance of confirming 3 other players? tf?

Mikal wrote:

Yeah one post after I have harping on your thought process non stop. My point is there is no consideration of the utility of a casey lynch and what it provides. Its just a prima facie read

All you do is lie lie lie bro. There's no prima facie read. I explained In my first post on casey the reasons why I make that read.

It is worth noting, that rolestopper is a somewhat common as a role on the mafia team.

It can be town. But it's more often mafia.

guess what's more common on the mafia team, a redirector, which is what mikal claimed.

Bullish wrote:

guess what's more common on the mafia team, a redirector, which is what mikal claimed.

interesting

Bullish wrote:

You make no sense. So I as scum, instead of taking a mislynch and a 1v2 tomorrow, I take a 1v1 today and have a 50% chance of confirming 3 other players? tf?

If you're scum, you have incentive to make sure we aren't sure whether Casey's role claim is real. If Casey flips town Dreamer, that confirms that at least one of the three players in their Dream is town, and, let's face it, it will likely put you in a 1v1 situation as people solidify their reads around the three of you. That's not going to remain a 1v2. If you're able to get a lynch on one of the other two players in the Dream and they flip town, that makes Casey's claim more questionable and sets up a 1v2 situation with Casey included. I don't get what's hard to understand here.

Bullish wrote:

guess what's more common on the mafia team, a redirector, which is what mikal claimed.

So, out of curiosity, do you think I'm scum along with him?

whiteflame wrote:

Bullish wrote:

You make no sense. So I as scum, instead of taking a mislynch and a 1v2 tomorrow, I take a 1v1 today and have a 50% chance of confirming 3 other players? tf?

If you're scum, you have incentive to make sure we aren't sure whether Casey's role claim is real.

Wrong. As scum I have incentive to lynch town. Super straight forward. If casey's claim turns out real, this gives no advantage, because tomorrow will have 9 players, the pool of dreamer results will have 1/3 scum, and the rest will be 2/6 scum. Town gains no probabilistic advantage. If mikal dies and flips town, it's literally the same -- we know there's at least once scum in the pool of 3 -- casey, me, lunatic. I've been over this 50 times but you refuse to even address it. The only difference between these scenarios is that I put myself on the chopping block in one of them. Banana agrees with me.

If Casey flips town Dreamer, that confirms that at least one of the three players in their Dream is town,

I'm assuming you mean scum

and, let's face it, it will likely put you in a 1v1 situation as people solidify their reads around the three of you.

you can't just make up numbers to make your side look better. I'm making it 1v1 RIGHT NOW, without the benefit of a casey mislynch.

That's not going to remain a 1v2. If you're able to get a lynch on one of the other two players in the Dream and they flip town, that makes Casey's claim more questionable and sets up a 1v2 situation with Casey included. I don't get what's hard to understand here.

I don't get whats so hard to understand for YOU.

VTL: Lunatic

I'm really struggling to see your point on Lunatic. Its just odd you immediately accuse me of lying, it is almost hostile. And I am ISOing Lunatic, but he doesn't seem to care about Rex or to a lesser degree, you. Lunatic is just a sus guy this game.

Alright here's another way to think about why mikal's "solve" is actually 100% pointless.

There are 4 players, casey, lunatic, mikal, bullish.

casey claims dreamer, 1 or more scum among lunatic, mikal, bullish.

casey dies and flips town -- we know the dreamer results are true, 1+ scum among the remaining 3 players.

casey dies and flips scum -- we know the dreamer results are not true, 0+ scum among the remaining 3 players.

Any one of lunatic, mikal, bullish dies and flips town -- either casey is lying and scum, in which case there is 1+ scum among the remaining 3 players (casey included); or casey is town and telling the truth, in which case there is ALSO 1+ scum among the remaining 3 players.

Any one of lunatic, mikal, bullish dies and flips scum -- we know the dreamer results are likely true, the remaining 3 players get soft confirmed, unless casey is hard bussing.

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Bullish wrote:

You make no sense. So I as scum, instead of taking a mislynch and a 1v2 tomorrow, I take a 1v1 today and have a 50% chance of confirming 3 other players? tf?

If you're scum, you have incentive to make sure we aren't sure whether Casey's role claim is real.

Wrong. As scum I have incentive to lynch town. Super straight forward. If casey's claim turns out real, this gives no advantage, because tomorrow will have 9 players, the pool of dreamer results will have 1/3 scum, and the rest will be 2/6 scum. Town gains no probabilistic advantage. If mikal dies and flips town, it's literally the same -- we know there's at least once scum in the pool of 3 -- casey, me, lunatic. I've been over this 50 times but you refuse to even address it. The only difference between these scenarios is that I put myself on the chopping block in one of them. Banana agrees with me.

Let's not overstate how many times you've brought up the numerical case here, but my point was and remains that you know you would be one of the people who gets the most attention if the Dream is verified. You can say it's a 1/3 chance, but by next DP, you three will be by far the most scrutinized players. It's not just a numbers game. And yeah, I'll be happy to disagree with Banana here too.

If Casey flips town Dreamer, that confirms that at least one of the three players in their Dream is town,

I'm assuming you mean scum

Yes, that's what I meant.

and, let's face it, it will likely put you in a 1v1 situation as people solidify their reads around the three of you.

you can't just make up numbers to make your side look better. I'm making it 1v1 RIGHT NOW, without the benefit of a casey mislynch.

I'm not making up numbers. You know very well that you've been the focus of a lot of attention. That's not changing next DP. As for you making it a 1v1 right now, looking at the votes that have been posted, that's just not accurate. You may be putting attention on one person, but it's not currently a 1v1 just because you're invested in the read.

That's not going to remain a 1v2. If you're able to get a lynch on one of the other two players in the Dream and they flip town, that makes Casey's claim more questionable and sets up a 1v2 situation with Casey included. I don't get what's hard to understand here.

I don't get whats so hard to understand for YOU.

Well, guess we're not getting anywhere then.

Mag1cman wrote:

It is worth noting, that rolestopper is a somewhat common as a role on the mafia team.

Yeah, I find that to be the case globally as well. I just generally dislike fake claiming as town unless it’s a gambit RT kinda deal I have set up prior to resolve.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE CLAIMED NIGHT ACTIONS ALREADY

could you remind me?

whiteflame wrote:

Let's not overstate how many times you've brought up the numerical case here, but my point was and remains that you know you would be one of the people who gets the most attention if the Dream is verified. You can say it's a 1/3 chance, but by next DP, you three will be by far the most scrutinized players. It's not just a numbers game. And yeah, I'll be happy to disagree with Banana here too.

Yeah I see your point, and it supports me dude. Why can't you see that. As scum, I'm taking the 1/2 today, then IF I survive I'm taking a 1/3 tomorrow (probably worse since I just drove a mislynch). Or, I'm taking the free mislynch today, and then a 1/3 (1/2 at best in your imaginary scenario) tomorrow.

remind me who you targeted and with what

for everyone who has claimed their last night action

Hi, on now

I had no night action that I know of, other than Pie pinging me, but it is possible that I did something without knowing it.

Catching up and not going to be home for a bit but I think independent of alignment Bullish should chill a bit.

While I do believe some of the numbers they are pushing are wrong it’s not a factor I consider AI at a glance. Obviously a 4p mech PoE in an 11 player game has lower odds, (not better) of a pool.

I will try to take some time to explain more but I wouldn’t mind seeing the emotional temperature lowered and greater focus on analysis and reasoning as we near the end of the day.

The mech info I still want is knowing who created the chat. Big value with like minimal cost there imo

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Let's not overstate how many times you've brought up the numerical case here, but my point was and remains that you know you would be one of the people who gets the most attention if the Dream is verified. You can say it's a 1/3 chance, but by next DP, you three will be by far the most scrutinized players. It's not just a numbers game. And yeah, I'll be happy to disagree with Banana here too.

Yeah I see your point, and it supports me dude. Why can't you see that. As scum, I'm taking the 1/2 today, then IF I survive I'm taking a 1/3 tomorrow (probably worse since I just drove a mislynch). Or, I'm taking the free mislynch today, and then a 1/3 (1/2 at best in your imaginary scenario) tomorrow.

Just seems like we don't agree on how this breaks down at all, so I'll stop here. Others can choose who they agree with, but continuing to discuss the numbers between the two of us clearly isn't getting us anywhere.

I will say this: Pie puts little traps for town in his setups to keep us all on our toes. He does it to the mafia team as well. For example, in that CoD game, he gave the mafia team a strongman even though there was no doctor.

It was very mean :(

Mag1cman wrote:

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE CLAIMED NIGHT ACTIONS ALREADY

could you remind me?

See #369. I broke down how my night action played out there, how Mikal's did, and two unknown night actions that affected at least mine. To clarify since it might initially be unclear, my intended target was Luna.

I feel we need to focus less on the hard mech of what exactly happened and such and more at the potential motives and analysis.

Do the actions take. By people match their reads? What alignment intention would it line up.

And that thing few have really focused on yet today- the individual motives as the Casey train shifted. Great farm for indicators

whiteflame wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE CLAIMED NIGHT ACTIONS ALREADY

could you remind me?

See #369. I broke down how my night action played out there, how Mikal's did, and two unknown night actions that affected at least mine. To clarify since it might initially be unclear, my intended target was Luna.

I have a very hard time believing Shining would be a target for a vanillizer.

Mag1cman wrote:

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE CLAIMED NIGHT ACTIONS ALREADY

could you remind me?

Figured you knew given you were just quoting me. I’m suppose to rope block everyone and I was on the Innocent Child