Apocalypse Mafia - DP1

Originally Posted by Vader on 9/21/2026 at 11:03 PM (post #207)

Got caught up with football and forgot to post. I’m good with Magic for pressure if that’s the direction we want

opportunism noted

Still townreading you but I'm really not liking your disappearance when you don't really have to defend yourself.

Vader — Slight scum lean

I don't have a huge case here yet. There's just not enough from him that makes me want to put him in my town pile.

He's also one of the people Magic has already called out as a scumread, although I'm not really using that as a reason to read him either way.

More of a "I want to see more" than me wanting to push him right now

Is there something specific that bugs you about Vader? this looks like a null read more than slight scum read.

So let's say you're part of the mafia. What's the first thing you would do in the game? And beyond that, what would your plan be?

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/21/2026 at 11:18 PM (post #214)

So let's say you're part of the mafia. What's the first thing you would do in the game? And beyond that, what would your plan be?

Within the context of this particular game, that is.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 9/21/2026 at 7:21 PM (post #192)

Originally Posted by Vader on 9/21/2026 at 6:32 PM (post #182)

I don’t love Magic jumping from a vote on Pie to then coming off and looking at pressure elsewhere after like 10 posts.

What really bothers me is his progression from voting him to having him as town and then accusing him of a potential scum slip. Will do more in depth when I get home

felt off to me, and I asked about it.

You know how I feel about Pie in these games. Even when he looks town to me, I'm gonna keep my guard up. Yeah, I'm paranoid, but I respect Pie's play too much to 100% trust him even when I townread him. I'm going to press him about something if it seems wrong to me. His reply to me made sense, and so it probably wasn't a scumslip. If he had reacted any differently, I would have had a reason to be suspicious.

Originally Posted by Vader on 9/21/2026 at 7:32 PM (post #194)

Ok, I’ll give my full reads but I have an FoS against Kiggins. I want to be very light considering the circumstances, but coming back, saying you read for the last 2 hours, then the only thing saying is that “Pie could be scum, could be innocent” and then not pushing much thought is inherently scummy. If anything, it’s a vet trying to deviate the lime light from him so he doesn’t have to full claim. FYI I do believe his story and hope he’s better, but that’s just not the analysis you give after going 2 hours reading the DP

If we're really dealing with a noob here I can see it being NAI. If it's like Disc or 7th, slightly more likely to be scum. Ofc, if they're gonna troll like that, I imagine they might do it as either affiliation. Especially Disc. Just a great excuse to be lazy, pretending to be a noob. Like there could be something there but I'm not sure yet.

What specifically bugs you about Kohai?

I also don't understand why you wouldn't townread me for stuff you saw me doing in previous town games. I go through my thoughts, then I go back and reorganize. You've seen it so many times.

ebwop

Official Vote Count

Pie (2/5) - Kohai, Thoth,

magic (2/5) - lunatic, vader

Kohai (1/5) - Pie

Not voting: Banana, JenKiggans, whiteflame, magic

DP1 ends in ~14 hours, at 09/22 14:00 EST

Originally Posted by Vader on 9/21/2026 at 6:46 PM (post #190)

Right now I think I have a lot more to work with. I also have a read I want to quick fire out but don’t

Simmered down on my Pie read based on his logic that he provided later on in the DP. It is still a bit unorthodox but not ruled out for him

I like Banana so far in this game. I think they came in swinging and got a big chunk post out there with formal reads and all that ASAP so I think they fall into my town pile. I also know banana scum tries to lure quickly in as scum and not jump in right away to action and avoid interaction so I think that aligns of my presumed behavior

Thoth has fallen off my wagon a bit and my vote still reads NAI

FOS on Kohai and you, but willing to excuse Kohai due to religious circumstances but there is some things I’m not loving when on

I have a read I am going to make when I get home and shower depending if I see something in the next 30 min. It could be a reach, but something I like to see

not a single one of these is an original read lol

VTL Vader

I want Vader's claim

I think 2/2/3 in Vader/Whiteflame/Lunatic rn. Kohai and Kiggans are floating around and possible, but not my big idea. Thoth, Banana, and Pie are off the table for me atm

Alright, I'm finally caught up. I'm not going to give detailed reads because that will require me to do at least some ISO work going through everyone's posts, but I will give basic thoughts about where I see everyone currently. It's subject to change, but then what isn't?

JenKiggans2026 - Null. I hope whatever landed you in the ER is largely resolved. Can't read much into your thoughts from your few posts so far, just not a lot of reads. Stating that he's used to live in-person Mafia as pushback to his providing more insights earlier is rubbing me the wrong way, but could be true, so null for now.

Banana - Lean town. Strong opening set of posts with a serious set of reads and a lot of detailed questions. If it's a ploy, she's gotten really good at it because this looks like solid scumhunting and analysis.

Thoth - Slight town. Largely comes from the same place as many have mentioned with the apparent error in his PM, just doesn't seem like something he'd mention if he's scum. That isn't because I think he wouldn't draw attention to himself (he often does as scum), but because this doesn't match the usual pattern I expect to see from him as scum. I may elaborate later, but this seems more like townie Thoth.

Pie - Slight town/null. More of a vibe check that's leaning towards the former. A lot of NAI behaviors should put me solidly in the latter camp, but his response to pressure is tugging me towards the townread. He's rarely pushed this hard this early, but usually pushes back harder on giving his claim, something I'd expect more from him as scum. Still, that doesn't feel like a strong behavioral cue, so I'm leaving him a bit on the fence.

Kohai - Null. I was kind of sussing him earlier in the DP when he said Pie was targeting him because they were teammates as scum last game, which seemed a little strange, but it's also the kind of paranoia I've seen from Kohai before. The current read on the potential Mag1c/Pie team seems a little unlikely (I don't think Mag1c creates distance with his partner and then drops it that quickly), but I can at least understand his concern about each. I end up landing in the middle after swinging a bit.

Vader - Slight scum. Don't love the FoS On Kiggans and a little wary of him piggy-backing on Luna's reasoning to put a vote on Mag1c without much reasoning. Feels a little opportunistic on both fronts, given Kiggan's relative absence and Mag1c already becoming a major focus.

Luna - Lean town. I've often agreed with his reads, but his thoughts on Mag1c in post #168 swayed me more than usual. I can see how he derived his conclusions from a pattern of behavior and read choices that he sees from Mag1c. I want to dig more into that read and see if I come to the same conclusions independently, but the pushback from Mag1c on each of those changes to his reads hasn't looked great.

Mag1c - Null. I'd like to go through all of his reads and see if I can understand the changes he's made over the course of the DP. Setting that aside for now, I'm a little baffled by the sudden influx of posts just before he thought the DP would end and the vote on Kiggans that accompanied that sudden flurry. Possible he was just frustrated by what looked like a no lynch in progress, or it could just be an effort to get the last word in before the DP closes and look like he's the only one who cares. Haven't decided which.

Anyway, I'm going to leave it there for tonight. No services tomorrow, so I'll be on early and digging into ISOs in the morning.

No shot you guys actually think I'm scum. I've town told all game long as there's one thing that should lock me town. But ofc if I point it out, y'all are gonna ascribe it to my master plan.

Genuinely, the people who are not scumreading me are lock town. There's no shot mafia isn't being opportunistic on me.

Vader - Slight scum. Don't love the FoS On Kiggans and a little wary of him piggy-backing on Luna's reasoning to put a vote on Mag1c without much reasoning. Feels a little opportunistic on both fronts, given Kiggan's relative absence and Mag1c already becoming a major focus.

Yes. Please vote vader.

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/21/2026 at 9:16 PM (post #213)

Vader — Slight scum lean

I don't have a huge case here yet. There's just not enough from him that makes me want to put him in my town pile.

He's also one of the people Magic has already called out as a scumread, although I'm not really using that as a reason to read him either way.

More of a "I want to see more" than me wanting to push him right now

Is there something specific that bugs you about Vader? this looks like a null read more than slight scum read.

Yeah, that's fair. Looking at how I worded it, Vader is probably more null/slight scum than an actual scum lean. I don't have some specific Vader post where I'm like "this is scummy." It's more that I haven't really seen anything from him that has pushed me toward town either. So if we're being strict with the reads, I'd probably move him to null for now. I think the distinction I'm making is that I'm more interested in seeing what Vader does next than I am in actually pushing him right now. There are people I'm more concerned about at the moment. I also don't want to just slap a scum lean on someone because I haven't townread them yet. That's not really useful.

So yeah, I'd call Vader null, maybe slightly below null, rather than a genuine scum lean.

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/21/2026 at 9:07 PM (post #210)

Mag1cman — Scum lean

Still my strongest scum read.

It's not really one specific post. It's more the way his reads seem to move around. I don't care that he changes his reads — obviously town should change their reads when they get new information.

What bothers me is that I don't really understand what is causing the changes.

The Pie → town → potentially reconsidering Pie / focusing on Kohai progression is what I'm looking at the most. His response to my case also felt more like explaining why each individual point wasn't necessarily scummy than actually addressing the overall pattern I was talking about.

So yeah, he's the person I'm most interested in right now.

Looking at how you formatted this post, you clearly read my reads... so what don't you understand about my reads? I felt I explained them pretty well. And as for the bolded part, I don't know what you're expecting of me. YOu can look at my behavior and give some sort of plan behind it, or I could just be town. I can't really prove to you for certain that I'm not masterminding some secret plan where every point I make is carefully crafted to manipulate you, and every little behavior thing isn't part said mastermind plan. It's unfalsifiable.

I also don't understand why you would townread me for stuff you saw me doing in previous town games. I go through my thoughts, then I go back and reorganize. You've seen it so many times.

I'm not saying I don't understand the individual reasons behind your reads. I understand why you moved on Pie, and I understand why you're interested in Kohai. What I don't understand is the weight you're putting on those reads and how quickly you're able to move between them. Like, when I say I don't understand the progression, I don't mean "Magic has not explained himself." You have explained yourself. I'm saying the explanations aren't really resolving my concern. And I definitely don't think you're running some giant mastermind plan where every post is carefully crafted. That's not what I'm accusing you of lol.

I'm looking at the actual behavior and saying that, from my perspective, the way you're handling your reads gives you a lot of flexibility. That's not unfalsifiable. You can absolutely prove me wrong by continuing to play and showing that your reads actually have a consistent progression as we get more information.

If Pie flips town and you were right to move off him, cool. If Kohai gives you more information and your read changes because of it, also cool. That's how town is supposed to work.

What I'm watching for is whether your reads are actually being driven by new information or whether you're mostly finding reasons after the fact for whichever direction you're currently leaning. And on the meta point, I'm not saying "Magic did this as town before, therefore he's town."

I'm saying I've seen you do this kind of thought process as town before, so I'm giving that some weight when I'm trying to figure out your alignment now. If anything, that makes me less confident in the scum read, not more. But the current game still matters more than the meta.

If you think I'm misrepresenting your progression, then tell me what I'm getting wrong about it. Which part of the Pie → town → reconsidering Pie → Kohai progression do you think I'm reading incorrectly?

Because that's the actual thing I'm trying to figure out.

I don't think you're scum because "you changed your reads."

I think you're scum because I'm not convinced the reasons for those changes are as strong as you're making them out to be.

And that's something we can actually test as the game goes on.

ok catching up now, gonna try to put some reads down so i can actually keep track of where im at

thoth - town lean

i still think the role pm thing is pretty weird to fake this early. i dont think its a hard clear because obviously we dont know exactly what scum were given but i dont really see why scum would draw that much attention to themselves this early

pie - slight town lean

i think i like pie more than i did before. hes been pretty aggressive but at least hes actually pushing people and trying to get answers. i still wanna look more at the pie/kohai thing tho because idk if im fully sold on either of them

kohai - slight town lean

i think his reasoning for not wanting to claim makes sense. especially with scum having a fake claim. i also liked his answers when i was questioning him more than i expected to. still dont really wanna hard town him tho

magic - town lean

i actually think i understand the magic reads more after catching up

i dont really see the changing reads as a big problem tbh. the game is still pretty early and there were a lot of people who hadnt really posted much when some of those reads were made. if he started with a pie read and then went back and reread him and realized he had some confirmation bias i dont think thats inherently scummy

i also dont really buy the idea that having multiple possible scum worlds means hes trying to keep his options open. theres not really enough information yet to expect everyone to have a solved game. hes also already put actual scumreads on people instead of just sitting in the middle on everyone

i think the thoth read makes sense too. i dont know if id call thoth lock town from it but i understand why magic would see that as unlikely to be a scum play

lunatic - slight scum lean

this is probably the one im most unsure about but i dont love the case on magic

a lot of it feels like "your reads changed so i think youre keeping your options open" and idk if thats enough for me. magic has explained why his reads changed and i dont think lunatic is really giving enough weight to those explanations

also the way lunatic is pushing this feels kinda weird to me. theres a lot of talk about magic being "safe" but im not really seeing a specific thing magic has done thats actually scummy

i dont think lunatic is necessarily scum from this but i think id rather look at this slot more before i decide

vader - null/slight town

i actually kinda like some of what vader said about magic. the fact that hes independently questioning the pie progression makes me wanna look at him more

not enough here for me to really call him town tho

whiteflame - null

i dont really have a strong read here yet but i think theres a little more to look at than just "hasnt posted enough"

some of what whiteflame has said feels reasonable and i havent really seen anything that makes me think hes trying to force a bad narrative or anything. at the same time i dont feel like ive seen enough from him to really know where hes trying to take the game

so for now im mostly null but i wanna see more from him before i move him either way

jen - null

jen is kinda similar for me but i think im a little more interested in this slot

i feel like ive seen some thoughts from jen but i havent really figured out what the overall progression is supposed to be yet. like i can understand individual points but i dont really know what jen is actually trying to solve right now

could just be because im catching up and missing some context tho so i dont wanna force a scum read from that

overall im probably not voting magic right now. i think his explanations make sense enough that im not really seeing the scum angle there.

i think lunatic is making a pretty big case out of something that might just be normal town behavior. changing reads isnt inherently scummy and magic has actually explained why some of his reads changed

i also dont really like the way lunatic keeps framing it as magic being "safe" because im not sure what magic could realistically do differently here. theres still a bunch of people who havent really posted much so obviously reads are gonna be pretty fluid

i dont think lunatic is necessarily wrong about magic but i think hes more interested in making the magic progression look suspicious than actually figuring out why magic changed his reads

Originally Posted by Banana on 9/21/2026 at 11:35 PM (post #231)

i think lunatic is making a pretty big case out of something that might just be normal town behavior. changing reads isnt inherently scummy and magic has actually explained why some of his reads changed

i also dont really like the way lunatic keeps framing it as magic being "safe" because im not sure what magic could realistically do differently here. theres still a bunch of people who havent really posted much so obviously reads are gonna be pretty fluid

i dont think lunatic is necessarily wrong about magic but i think hes more interested in making the magic progression look suspicious than actually figuring out why magic changed his reads

I think you're slightly missing what I'm getting at here.

I don't think changing reads is inherently scummy. Obviously town can change their mind, especially this early when there are still people who haven't said much.

The issue for me is more about why Magic is changing his reads and whether the reasoning actually supports the magnitude of those changes.

With Pie, I don't care that Magic went from scum -> town. That's completely fine if he reread Pie and found something that changed his mind. What bothered me was that the explanation for such a big change was basically that he went back and didn't see anything that felt off anymore.

That's a pretty weak reason to go from voting someone and wanting a claim to calling them solid town, in my opinion.

And then once Pie gets moved out of that spot, Kohai becomes the person he's looking at. That's the progression I'm talking about when I say it feels safe. I'm not saying Magic needs to have the game solved or that every read needs to be locked in.

I also don't think I'm just trying to make the progression "look suspicious." If that was all I was doing, I probably wouldn't have spent the time actually asking Magic to explain the changes.

That's the whole point of my case. I want to know what specifically changed his mind, because if the answer is convincing, then great, I'll probably back off.

But "my reads change as I get more information" doesn't really answer the part I'm questioning.

And I don't think the fact that other people haven't posted much really changes that. Fluid reads are fine. Having relatively weak reasons for moving someone from a strong scumread to a strong townread is the part I'm stuck on.

So yeah, I could be wrong about Magic. I'm not saying I've caught him doing something only scum could do. I'm saying I've looked at his progression, I don't like it, and so far his explanation hasn't really changed my mind.

Anyways if other people think I am full of crap or barking up the wrong tree here, I am happy to look elsewhere. This isn't a smoking gun, but its my best lead, and my gut is telling me there's something to it. I've been wrong before, if I am wrong here, point it out to me and I'll try to reconsider. I am not wanting to tunnel vision, even if it seems like I am. I am just trying to explain what I am seeing here.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/22/2026 at 1:21 AM (post #230)

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/21/2026 at 9:07 PM (post #210)

Mag1cman — Scum lean

Still my strongest scum read.

It's not really one specific post. It's more the way his reads seem to move around. I don't care that he changes his reads — obviously town should change their reads when they get new information.

What bothers me is that I don't really understand what is causing the changes.

The Pie → town → potentially reconsidering Pie / focusing on Kohai progression is what I'm looking at the most. His response to my case also felt more like explaining why each individual point wasn't necessarily scummy than actually addressing the overall pattern I was talking about.

So yeah, he's the person I'm most interested in right now.

Looking at how you formatted this post, you clearly read my reads... so what don't you understand about my reads? I felt I explained them pretty well. And as for the bolded part, I don't know what you're expecting of me. YOu can look at my behavior and give some sort of plan behind it, or I could just be town. I can't really prove to you for certain that I'm not masterminding some secret plan where every point I make is carefully crafted to manipulate you, and every little behavior thing isn't part said mastermind plan. It's unfalsifiable.

I also don't understand why you would townread me for stuff you saw me doing in previous town games. I go through my thoughts, then I go back and reorganize. You've seen it so many times.

I'm not saying I don't understand the individual reasons behind your reads. I understand why you moved on Pie, and I understand why you're interested in Kohai. What I don't understand is the weight you're putting on those reads and how quickly you're able to move between them. Like, when I say I don't understand the progression, I don't mean "Magic has not explained himself." You have explained yourself. I'm saying the explanations aren't really resolving my concern. And I definitely don't think you're running some giant mastermind plan where every post is carefully crafted. That's not what I'm accusing you of lol.

Lol earlier you in your case your saying you don't understand something about my reads, now you move the goalposts. This is stupid.

I'm looking at the actual behavior and saying that, from my perspective, the way you're handling your reads gives you a lot of flexibility. That's not unfalsifiable. You can absolutely prove me wrong by continuing to play and showing that your reads actually have a consistent progression as we get more information.

tfym consistent progression? Town changes as they continue to think.

If Pie flips town and you were right to move off him, cool. If Kohai gives you more information and your read changes because of it, also cool. That's how town is supposed to work.

Except for the fact you were arguing I'm scum off this being too convenient. Now you're contradicting yourself.

What I'm watching for is whether your reads are actually being driven by new information or whether you're mostly finding reasons after the fact for whichever direction you're currently leaning. And on the meta point, I'm not saying "Magic did this as town before, therefore he's town.

I'm saying I've seen you do this kind of thought process as town before, so I'm giving that some weight when I'm trying to figure out your alignment now. If anything, that makes me less confident in the scum read, not more. But the current game still matters more than the meta.

If you think I'm misrepresenting your progression, then tell me what I'm getting wrong about it. Which part of the Pie → town → reconsidering Pie → Kohai progression do you think I'm reading incorrectly?

I'm not on Kohai. I have him null, and I've opted to move on from him. So you're wrong there.

Because that's the actual thing I'm trying to figure out.

I don't think you're scum because "you changed your reads."

I think you're scum because I'm not convinced the reasons for those changes are as strong as you're making them out to be.

And that's something we can actually test as the game goes on.

If you'd want to test, surely you'd want to move on from me then. no? CMon now,

You're whole shtick here is trying to smooth talk, show a phony control over the conversation. You don't have it. your argument is nonsense.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/22/2026 at 2:49 AM (post #233)

Anyways if other people think I am full of crap or barking up the wrong tree here, I am happy to look elsewhere. This isn't a smoking gun, but its my best lead, and my gut is telling me there's something to it. I've been wrong before, if I am wrong here, point it out to me and I'll try to reconsider. I am not wanting to tunnel vision, even if it seems like I am. I am just trying to explain what I am seeing here.

how about vader?

Readwall incoming

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/22/2026 at 2:46 AM (post #232)

Originally Posted by Banana on 9/21/2026 at 11:35 PM (post #231)

i think lunatic is making a pretty big case out of something that might just be normal town behavior. changing reads isnt inherently scummy and magic has actually explained why some of his reads changed

i also dont really like the way lunatic keeps framing it as magic being "safe" because im not sure what magic could realistically do differently here. theres still a bunch of people who havent really posted much so obviously reads are gonna be pretty fluid

i dont think lunatic is necessarily wrong about magic but i think hes more interested in making the magic progression look suspicious than actually figuring out why magic changed his reads

I think you're slightly missing what I'm getting at here.

I don't think changing reads is inherently scummy. Obviously town can change their mind, especially this early when there are still people who haven't said much.

The issue for me is more about why Magic is changing his reads and whether the reasoning actually supports the magnitude of those changes.

Go ahead and refute my reasoning then. Tell my why my read is a bad flip. Go ahead.

With Pie, I don't care that Magic went from scum -> town. That's completely fine if he reread Pie and found something that changed his mind. What bothered me was that the explanation for such a big change was basically that he went back and didn't see anything that felt off anymore.

That's a massive strawman. I said I was basing a lot of things off his pressure on Kohai. My error was basing it too much in the last game basically starting with the assumption Pie is scum. Once I got over that, yeah I can see Pie doing a reaction test, or trying to pressure kohai into a slip, or driving activity... whatever you want to call it, it achieved all three of those things.

That's a pretty weak reason to go from voting someone and wanting a claim to calling them solid town, in my opinion.

And then once Pie gets moved out of that spot, Kohai becomes the person he's looking at. That's the progression I'm talking about when I say it feels safe. I'm not saying Magic needs to have the game solved or that every read needs to be locked in.

First off I said it felt m/m or m/t. Obviously, I'm going to look at the other person after I find the other to be town. That is a natural progression. And I looked at Kohai and he's really a tossup for me. And then I read other people and found a few people I scumread.

I also don't think I'm just trying to make the progression "look suspicious." If that was all I was doing, I probably wouldn't have spent the time actually asking Magic to explain the changes.

You asked those questions in such a disingenuous way, I answered them and now you're saying it "doesn't ease you"... yeah I'm sure it doesn't lol

highkey ur lucky i scumread Vader just a bit more.

Claims:

Thoth- 

“At least one statement in the OP is false” + “I am not an Informed Townie.” - Post 5

“My role PM contradicts a statement in the OP.” - Post 30

 Says he is saying #30 mainly to breadcrumb. - Post 31

Says he suspects Whiteflame's apocalypse range based on his expectations of the game + what he can see from his role PM. - Post 42

“Mine kinda make sense. It's not what I would have picked for this 'character' (type of apocalypse), but I get Bullish's thinking.” - Post 52

Says he reread his PM and realized the PM itself is factually incorrect. - Post 87

Reiterates that the PM is factually incorrect according to his understanding/search. - Post 91

Whiteflame- 

Says he got “one of my all-time favorite apocalypses.” - Post 8

Says his apocalypse gives him “clear grounding” on what the game encompasses; suggests the range goes from events killing many people/fundamentally changing the world to the end of humanity. - Post 10

His apocalypse is from a book. - Post 37

Vader- 

“My apocalypse is boring.” - Post 34

“it's scientific.” - Post 94

Lunatic-

“Mine's a pretty common fear, though im unsure how realistic it is. Maybe more realistic if you buy into paranoia from recent events.” - Post 65

Mag1cMan-

“too many people are afraid of mine.” Says there are a couple different ways it could happen and knows a couple in his town who prepare for it. - Post 68

Kohai-

“my character, along with the justification and role, make absolutely zero sense whatsoever.” - Post 51

Unclaimed:

Pie, JenKiggans, Banana

dude where are you. I"m starting to lose confidence in my townread on you.Like the second I townread you and the pressure disappears, you just disappear.