Well, looks like it was a TvT situation last DP, so I guess it didn’t matter how the coin flip went.
Any explanation for the dual NK? Should we assume that the TP in this game has a killing role atp, or is someone going to out that they’re the Guard Captain?
And yeah, 7-3 isn’t a great place to be, not a lot of room for error.
on dart i was the early lynch in like 3 games. ive gotten kind of lucky on this site to have town confirm roles in most of the games ive been in on this one tho
Yeah, you were a new player there and I’d say you’ve come into your own on this site, hence the lack of early lynches. It’s not just roles.
It’s basically a given that Flora’s going to be the lynch unless there’s a big shake-up, so we’ll see what happens. Again, it’s plurality lynch.
I get Gerard, he’s been arguing against this for a while and is clearly exhausted. I’m just baffled anyone would give up because they became a potential lynch with a larger wagon in play.
if u got lynched as much as me i think u would understand
I really don’t get it because, to my recollection, you are rarely an early lynch. You’re not even the likely lynch here, so no, I don’t get it.
im not giving up. did i self vote? have i left the thread? have i stopped interactin? i just saw 2 votes back to back switch to me so im a lil taken off guard bcuz of it.
You’ve said now multiple times that you believe Pie will outmaneuver you, and outright said you’re expecting to be the lynch. You don’t have to vote yourself to be defeatist, that’s pretty defeatist.
Seriously, someone explain to me why the winning wagon is acting so defeatist. Yes, there have been votes against Martin. That wagon is still two votes behind, but it’s suddenly a lost cause? wtf?
everytime ive ever been mislynched, pies led the wagon on me. he always out argues and out maniplates ppl to win in the end
You are currently out-maneuvering him. There’s less than 30 minutes left in this DP. Why are you giving up?
A-Martin wrote:
well good luck guys. i think this is gonna be my last one for a while. im a bit tired of getting lynched and always losing this battle with him lol
Why do you think you’re losing exactly? You’ve got a couple more votes on you and he’s still in the majority.
There are only 3 votes on Martin to Flora’s 5. Why is everyone suddenly resigned to this lynch?
well if it takes me dying to punish flora for this, so be it. kind of boring to constntly be lynched by the same person over and over again, as either affil. would be cool if u guys took my side even once lol. starting to question why i bother signing up for these.
You survived quite a while last game mainly on behavior. Sorry if I’m a little hesitant to read good behavior in a similar light this game, but that’s the way it is. It’s not like you’re always an early lynch.
Oh bull fucking shit man lol. Scum Pie wants all the smoke. Dude has the biggest ego in all of mafia. He probably didn't think there was a margin of possibility of him being a day phase one lynch. When is the last time you remember pie even getting lynched, let alone day phase one? You think that cocky SOB didn't think he would get an out for this?
If that’s what he thinks he’s doing, then he’s wrong. It’s not giving him an out, at least not beyond this DP. It just makes him a priority lynch the longer the game goes on, and from my perspective, a priority the moment Martin flips town.
Quite the opposite actually. This is self admitted. He wanted to only employ the lynch vanilla strat one time, and if it was a mislynch just full stop. Which gives him a perfect pass for when he inevitably claims vanilla later lol
If that’s what he believes should happen, fine. It’ll backfire on him. I’ll push for his lynch and it looks like I wouldn’t be alone.
So what would pie have to do to come off as scummy because even pie self admits he would double down as either affiliation. Your giving him a pass for something he thinks is NAI lol
I’m saying the move doesn’t make sense to start as scum. He’d have to double down on it either way because he’s too invested, but I don’t think scum Pie puts this kind of attention on himself and literally inserts himself into POE for the rest of the game as a starting strategy.
Riskier than you'd expect from him as town or as scum?
As scum. I think he’s pushing this hard because he believes in the strategy and that he’ll be NK’d soon enough, so he’s going all-in. As scum, I don’t think he resigns himself to always being in POE.
Anyway, I’m putting my vote on Martin knowing I will probably be outvoted. It’s plurality lynch, so failing to meet the seven votes will still result in a lynch. I don’t see a world in which Pie gets away from the lynch next DP if Martin flips town unless he’s hiding a PR, so from my perspective, this is the better play.
VTL: A-Martin
A-Brand wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
A-Brand wrote:
Gonna do some speed reading of past pages, but can either of you tell me real quick why there's a Flora wagon?
Mainly has to do with his strategy of lynching among VT claims. Lot of disagreement as to whether that’s good or will lead to a slew of mislynches, wagon formed in part because the view that this was aiming for the latter.
Mm, I see. I feel like that's pretty NAI for Flora, tho? I'll read through the past few pages but that doesn't convince me immediately
I think it’s riskier play on his part than I’d expect, particularly this early with a VT claim locked and loaded.
A-Fiona wrote:
I want to see how the new A-brand handles things before voting there
A-Fiona wrote:
VTL: A-Flora
Really don’t love that you just hopped on now and posted like this. If there are points you feel Luna is making well that convinced you, maybe spell them out instead of just jumping in.
The same thing I said to random I'll say to you. From what I gather you don't town read flora, you just vaguely agree with his analysis that we should lynch within vanillas. You can accomplish that by following floras plan and lynching him. There's no reason he should be exempt from his own mech policy.
If we are just as likely to mislynch either one of them why not Flora? You know the longer this game goes on, the more strong town players get picked off, the more likely Flora gets to manipulate the weaker or less active players. In this case he doesn't have anything going for him role wise. If he was offering a significant amount of behavioral analysis and ideas, that would be another thing. But look at his read list in 358. You think that read list is coming from a town pie? You and I both put heaps more effort into our reads than he did. He's barely budged or moved at all in almost 72 hours from what his initial lynch goal was. He's never attempted to consider different options or offer a different direction. He has doubled down at every turn, and anyone who disagrees with him is an idiot. What value is he bringing to the game? If we mislynch him yeah that sucks, but every one gets mislynched, pie way less than others. I don't think he deserves more sympathy for a mislynch than anyone else does. I got offlined mislynched in Andor and you don't see him crying a river for me lol.
The long and short of it is that I think Pie doesn’t draw this kind of heat on himself if he’s scum. He knows his strategy applies to him as well, knows that another VT claim flipping town puts him in even hotter water. I don’t think he should be exempt from his own policy, but I don’t think scum Pie does all this and that’s more than I have to say in Banana’s favor at this point. Sure, he’s tunneled a little more than usual, but that tracks with someone who believes their strategy is the correct one, as does half-assing his reads list. I’ll see all that in a different light should Banana flip scum, but for now, it’s consistent with what I’d expect from him. It just doesn’t come off as scummy.
A-Brand wrote:
Gonna do some speed reading of past pages, but can either of you tell me real quick why there's a Flora wagon?
Mainly has to do with his strategy of lynching among VT claims. Lot of disagreement as to whether that’s good or will lead to a slew of mislynches, wagon formed in part because the view that this was aiming for the latter.
A-Gerard wrote:
I mean… yes? The goal would be to draw attention to the other, and if they somehow thread that needle or draw attention elsewhere, that would indeed be a problem.
If they are both town, then this entire logic just fucked town into two mislynches, and thats gonna hurt. And that's also gonna be on Flora.
Agreed, but here we are. I’m not happy that this is where we’re ending the DP and it could end up with two mislynches, just saying how I see it.
A-Martin wrote:
u dont have to town read me, but ive done my best to comply with every req. i claimed when flora asked me to, and then was accused of being passive aggressive. im being pursued bcuz of the role i claimed, and a weird accusation that im being passive aggressive. if im gonna be lynched i would at least like a little more than that. i gave reads when asked, i answered questions when asked, what have i done that makes me scum lol
I don’t agree you’ve been passive aggressive. The pursuit of VT players I get generally, as I’ve already stated. The rest is NAI. Didn’t say you’ve done anything scummy.
Flora is a dude lol. Martin is the XX chromosome
Yeah, I’m typing this up quickly, I recognize I’m not always getting this right.
If you mislynch Martin and Flora somehow doesn't get lynched afterwards, and ends up being scum this is going to be so painful. Or your his scum partner. I hope its not the latter.
I mean… yes? The goal would be to draw attention to the other, and if they somehow thread that needle or draw attention elsewhere, that would indeed be a problem.
Alright, I'm back and I'll give some basic thoughts.
I think that, in general, drawing attention to the Vanilla players makes sense. We all agree that claiming one of the roles in the Town Pool from the Setup thread is a strong indicator that someone is town, particularly this early. That will change as the game goes on and the odds of CCing go down with more role claims, but for now, I agree with Flora that scum are likely to go for a Vanilla claim if pushed to do so.
And that's where things get tricky because we only know that we have 3 Vanilla claims on the table, not whether any of them are fake. I think we all agree there are bound to be a lot of VTs in this game, so just lynching among the Vanilla claims at random doesn't make a whole lot of sense. There has to be more of a basis for targeting a given player behaviorally, even if we're preferring lynches in the VT claim pool.
So the choices are pretty straightforward:
Either lynch one of the claimed VTs based on who the majority of us are sussing, or
Lynch outside of that pool, presumably getting a claim in the process (maybe not given the time we have remaining)
I'm a little hesitant to do the latter since we could just end up lynching someone who would otherwise claim a role that would effectively confirm them as town. I'm concerned about just eliminating VTs with the hope of finding scum in the mix, but I do think targeting a VT claim this DP makes the most sense. If nothing else, it would give us insight into either Martin or Flora, who I'm pretty certain are not paired, based on their flips. Much as I don't see her as scummy, Martin is the only player out of the three claimed VTs that I don't have any particular reason to townread, so that's where I'm leaning with attention to be paid to Flora should she flip town.
Gotta stop in at work, I’ll be back online in a little bit. My inclination right now is towards getting what info we can, and that’s from Flora right now, even if he isn’t my preference.
A-Gerard wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
Btw, I've asked Magoroth about this. I know we've talked about doing the crytography plus this secret key. From what he's told me, the key has to be guessable, so we can't just put this into an encryption site, generate a result, and generate a key. It would have to all be breakable by hand.
I literally asked him if we could and he said yes, so we are getting conflicting info
Just saying what he told me, best to clarify.
Btw, I've asked Magoroth about this. I know we've talked about doing the crytography plus this secret key. From what he's told me, the key has to be guessable, so we can't just put this into an encryption site, generate a result, and generate a key. It would have to all be breakable by hand.
Yes, and it’s annoying the bickering has moved us away from this goal, but at this stage we have to lynch and Martin is that person for me
Is the Brand read based on what he did before he was replaced or has anything moved the needle since?
We have no indication that Brand will even be online in the next 2 and a half hours when the day phase closes. If you buy flora is town that is fine, but since he is holding up the wagon on his claim, would you help put him at l-2? If he has a role other than vanilla, we can at least move on from this and use our remaining time to decide what we will do.
I'm considering it, just want to get Flora's answer first.
Would your priority for a third claim still be Brand at this point?
Didn't finish that thought:
He (Bleys) pinged me a few times earlier in the DP while Fiona just hasn't posted enough for me to get a read.
