I don't think we can assume much of anything about the split at this point. Thoth was asking earlier about whether we're all real people and, from the looks of things, everyone falls into that category. We know that scum were given 4 questions, which suggests they needed both fake character and role claims and therefore couldn't just straight up claim their characters (I doubt Pie gives them that many questions if they could), so whoever scum is, they're not straight up MAGA figures. As has been suggested by several people, though, that leaves a lot of options. Could be Democrats are scum, could be former MAGA members or at least complicated figures in the space, could be RINOs or Republicans who are outright antagonistic to Trump. Thoth pointed back to where Pie said that the game encompasses "various players in the MAGA Movement," but that might just apply to town members and not to scum.
i think we will learn more about the theme as we progress in the game, but yeah the soft claim list is def a good start