Lunatic

Originally Posted by ILikePie5 on 9/22/2026 at 11:15 AM (post #346)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/22/2026 at 12:10 PM (post #343)

Before we end the phase I really think you should give some sort of soft. You are absolutely the only person besides kiggans who hasn't given any sort of soft, which defeats the purpose of a mass soft. Are you afraid to lock yourself into something?

We shouldn’t have mass softed in the first place. And Kiggans definitely should go first

Why not? You seem pretty pro "getting claims". A soft just locks people in into something they can't back out of without giving away real information.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 9/22/2026 at 11:11 AM (post #344)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/22/2026 at 1:02 PM (post #329)

We've got an hour left. Is everyone comfortable with where their are votes out? Two similarly sized wagons is interesting, probably a good thing overall, but I want to get some clarification from people about their votes and if this is where they are comfortable staying.

Good timing, I just caught back up.

I think both wagons have decent logic to them and, frankly, neither Vader nor Kohai is that likely to have any form of confirmation, but at least Vader has a role that could theoretically be "confirmed," particularly with the possibility of stopping an NK. I can't say anything from Kohai has swung me on my decision to VTL him, and much as I get his frustration, he should know that he'd be a target this game given he was just scum last game. So the decision not to full claim reads a more scummy to me.

And while I've kind of been giving JenKiggans the benefit of the doubt, their continued absence is making me question it. I don't want to disincentivize them from playing in future games, but I can only take that justification so far.

As far as Jen goes, I think we focus on them dp2 pretty heavily. Don't think we have time to really steer a wagon there, but I agree Jen is 100% a problem based on the activity.

Before we end the phase I really think you should give some sort of soft. You are absolutely the only person besides kiggans who hasn't given any sort of soft, which defeats the purpose of a mass soft. Are you afraid to lock yourself into something?

Originally Posted by Kohai on 9/22/2026 at 11:06 AM (post #337)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/22/2026 at 1:04 PM (post #335)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 9/22/2026 at 11:02 AM (post #328)

VTL Vader

thought he was at L1

Any thoughts to lead us into the end of the day? I gotta say the lack of engagement from you hear at the end is not super warming me to the idea that you are town.

My main thoughts:

I dislike pie still.

I still don’t think we should be claiming characters.

Regardless of what happens I will give more thoughts tomorrow

Only pie has pushed for claims heavily. Outside of that we have all been just soft claiming. Can you give us something more? Only thing I have from you is that your character and role make no sense, which is basically nothing.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 9/22/2026 at 11:02 AM (post #328)

VTL Vader

thought he was at L1

Any thoughts to lead us into the end of the day? I gotta say the lack of engagement from you hear at the end is not super warming me to the idea that you are town.

We've got an hour left. Is everyone comfortable with where their are votes out? Two similarly sized wagons is interesting, probably a good thing overall, but I want to get some clarification from people about their votes and if this is where they are comfortable staying.

I did not realize kohai was at l-2. Hmm.

Originally Posted by Vader on 9/22/2026 at 10:52 AM (post #315)

There has also been 0 substance from Kiggins this DP despite them saying they’ve read everything front and back. I get that they were in the ER, but even then with that amount of time passed with nothing truly of substance to note feels like lurking rather than true mafia

Kiggans is definitely an issue. Consensus seems to be "let them cook" but they can't continue inactivity like this going forward. We've been burned by inactives too many times in the past.

Thanks for the reads that is helpful

Originally Posted by Vader on 9/22/2026 at 10:41 AM (post #309)

Tbh I honestly don’t really care. My flip just means Magic is no doubt and my role is a neg utility if targeting an investigative or an acrisp protective and such. I’m also in a new role which means I genuinely don’t have time to consistently come out and curse about why Magic is being a moron like I did when I had free time when I was younger

So magic is your top scum read? If you are town who is his scum partner? Try to help us as much as possible going into future day phases if you are town, any information you can post is helpful.

If kohai goes afk that will be a bit sus. He did the same thing as scum in the last game at EOD when I was pressuring him into a decision about pie.

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/22/2026 at 10:36 AM (post #305)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/22/2026 at 12:34 PM (post #303)

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/22/2026 at 10:28 AM (post #295)

unvote VTL Kohai

Full claim. Tree stump isn’t all that valuable tbh

Also bro we have an hour and a half left. Yesterday you made a big show out of pretending town was idiotic for letting the day phase end in a no lynch, and now you are going to deter the lynch with an hour and a half left? Not that surprised, but I am hoping others can see the writing on the wall here.

Trying to get info from Kohai =/= trying to deter a Vader lynch.

Im also seeing more activity rn, so we have time to do it I think

Alright. Doesn't look like kohai is wanting to help out though, and I dont think we have the time and people to add pressure to him.

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/22/2026 at 10:34 AM (post #301)

Q: Do yall think Vader defends himself harder than this if he’s scum?

If he was town he would be cursing everyone out and saying "fuck you guys", not conceding with excuses about activity and his IRL being busy. Thats always true of vader, dude is always a lower poster over the last few years. But he usually has some choice words for the people on his wagon if hes town. That's like his known town tell.

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/22/2026 at 10:28 AM (post #295)

unvote VTL Kohai

Full claim. Tree stump isn’t all that valuable tbh

Also bro we have an hour and a half left. Yesterday you made a big show out of pretending town was idiotic for letting the day phase end in a no lynch, and now you are going to deter the lynch with an hour and a half left? Not that surprised, but I am hoping others can see the writing on the wall here.

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/22/2026 at 10:28 AM (post #295)

unvote VTL Kohai

Full claim. Tree stump isn’t all that valuable tbh

Lol disregard pretty much everything I said about giving you town credit if vader flips scum LMAO

I think I'm coming around to Vader as the most reasonable vote today. I'm still not convinced he's an obvious slam dunk, but I don't love how reactive his progression has been, and I don't feel like we've gotten much independent solving from him. His claim also factors in for me. I don't think the claim itself clears him, especially in a setup where we know scum can have a fake role/character claim. So I'm not really comfortable giving him town equity just because of that.

At this point, Vader is probably where I'd want my vote. I think we have enough here that I'd rather try to get a lynch today than let the phase end with no lynch.

We should take a harder look at magic tomorrow. If Vader flips scum I’ll be much more willing to re evaluate my read on magic however. There’s bussing, and then there’s needless bussing. He kind of got this going against Vader. I don’t see him doing that this blatantly if Vader is his actual partner.

VTL Vader

unvote, magic isn’t happening in the next two hours.

Originally Posted by Banana on 9/22/2026 at 1:40 AM (post #245)

i think both of you are kinda talking past each other at this point lol

magic, i dont think lunatic is saying that changing reads is scummy. i think his issue is just that some of the changes feel bigger than the reasons he was given for them. i dont think thats an unreasonable thing to question

lunatic, i also think youre maybe giving magic less credit than he deserves here. he wasnt just like "i reread pie and decided hes town." he said he was putting too much weight on the previous game and once he got past that he thought pies pressure on kohai could actually make sense as a reaction test

i think the bigger thing for me is that both of you are starting to argue about how the other one is arguing instead of the actual reads lol

lunatic keeps saying magic isnt explaining it enough and magic keeps saying lunatic is being disingenuous or trying to control the conversation. neither of those things really gets us anywhere

from where im sitting, i actually think both of you look more town because of this

right now id probably leave both of you as town and look somewhere else for scum because i dont think this fight is getting us anywhere anymore

That's a fair take. I'll consider this.

Originally Posted by Thoth on 9/22/2026 at 1:42 AM (post #246)

This is a pure gutread, but Lunatic's laser-pointing on Mag1c in #168 feels so scummy to me. I feel like scum!Lunatic doesn't usually pinpoint specific people for day 1 reads as intensely as he did here, but I get that he didn't have that much to go off of since his previous post.

I would argue that this is completely not true of my meta. When I am town I am usually way more aggressive in reads, especially early reads. I was laser focused on pie dp1 last game. Notice I didn't start playing conservatively, until after I was recruited to the mafia in that game. I think aggressive pushes are more consistent with my town meta than scum meta. I can link you to any number of recent games of mine if you wish to verify this.

That said I don't want to be tunnel vision here, my gut has been screaming at me that its magic, but if I can tell that's not a popular consensus I can be talked out of this read. I would like a bit of actual logic and reasoning to prove my points are wrong, rather than just "not liking it" however before I could be convinced I think.

Go ahead and refute my reasoning then. Tell my why my read is a bad flip. Go ahead.

I think we're getting stuck on the same distinction again. I don't think I need to prove that Pie is town in order to question your reasoning for the flip.

My point isn't "your Pie read is objectively wrong." It's that the evidence you're giving me doesn't seem strong enough to justify how confident the resulting read was.

If your position was originally "Pie + Kohai are my two main suspects," then you vote Pie, want his claim, and later get to "Pie - solid town," I'm going to want to know what specifically changed your confidence that much. That's a completely reasonable thing to question even if Pie actually is town.

That's a massive strawman. I said I was basing a lot of things off his pressure on Kohai. My error was basing it too much in the last game basically starting with the assumption Pie is scum. Once I got over that, yeah I can see Pie doing a reaction test, or trying to pressure kohai into a slip, or driving activity... whatever you want to call it, it achieved all three of those things.

Okay, this is actually more of the explanation I was looking for. I understand the distinction you're making now. You weren't just saying "I reread Pie and didn't see anything wrong." You're saying you initially interpreted his pressure on Kohai through the lens of the previous game, and once you removed that assumption, you thought the exact same behavior made more sense as a reaction test / pressure / activity push. That's a much better explanation of the actual change.

Where I still disagree is with how confidently you went from that to "solid town." I can understand why that moved Pie from scum to town. I'm less convinced it should have moved him all the way to solid town. And that's basically my entire issue with the progression.

First off I said it felt m/m or m/t. Obviously, I'm going to look at the other person after I find the other to be town.

That's fair, and I'm not saying looking at Kohai after moving Pie out is suspicious by itself. The reason I brought it up is because the sequence matters when I'm evaluating your overall progression. You started with Pie/Kohai as the main possibilities, moved Pie strongly toward town, then examined Kohai, then moved away from Kohai and onto other scumreads. Again, none of those individual moves are inherently bad. I'm looking at how easily the focal point keeps shifting and asking whether the reasoning behind each shift is strong enough. If your answer is basically "I thought Pie was scum because I was carrying over my read from the last game, then realized his behavior made sense as pressure on Kohai, then looked at Kohai and found him to be a tossup, then found other people I scumread," that's a coherent progression. I just don't necessarily agree with all of your conclusions.

You asked those questions in such a disingenuous way, I answered them and now you're saying it "doesn't ease you"... yeah I'm sure it doesn't lol

I don't really know what you want me to do with that. If you think my questions were disingenuous, tell me which part was disingenuous. I was very explicit about what I was questioning. And yes, you can answer a question and still not convince me. That's not me pretending you didn't answer it.

I actually think your explanation here is better than the one I originally understood you to be giving. It makes me less suspicious of the specific Pie flip than I was before. It just doesn't erase my broader concern with your game. So I think the productive thing here is probably to stop arguing over whether I "understand" your explanation. I do. I understand why you think Pie's behavior was towny. I understand why you looked at Kohai afterward. I understand why you moved on from Kohai once he became a tossup. I just don't have the same level of confidence you do in those reads, and that's why I'm still voting you.

Lol earlier you in your case your saying you don't understand something about my reads, now you move the goalposts. This is stupid.

I don't think this is moving the goalposts. I said I don't understand your reads, and then I clarified that I mean I don't understand the weight and reasoning behind some of your read changes. Those are the same point.

If you explained something and I think the explanation is weak, that doesn't mean I suddenly understand and agree with it.

tfym consistent progression? Town changes as they continue to think.

Yes, town changes as they continue to think. I have said that multiple times now.

“Consistent progression” doesn't mean your reads have to stay the same. It means I should be able to look at the progression and understand what new information caused the changes.

If you go from A -> B -> C, I want to understand why you went A -> B and then B -> C. That's it.

Except for the fact you were arguing I'm scum off this being too convenient. Now you're contradicting yourself.

No, I'm not. Something can be normal town behavior and still be suspicious in the way someone is doing it. I'm not saying “Magic changed his reads, therefore Magic is scum.” I'm saying the way you've justified some of those changes hasn't been convincing to me, and the overall progression looks convenient from my perspective.

That's the difference.

I'm not on Kohai. I have him null, and I've opted to move on from him. So you're wrong there.

Okay. That's fair, and I already said I'm willing to account for that. But this doesn't really address my actual point. The reason I brought up Kohai was because you were previously interested in him after moving away from Pie. If you've now moved on from Kohai, that's another read change I can look at and ask what caused it.

I'm not saying you're obligated to stay on him.

If you'd want to test, surely you'd want to move on from me then. no? CMon now,

No? Why would I move on from my strongest scumread just because I'm willing to reevaluate it? Those things aren't mutually exclusive. I can think you're scum while still watching your future play to see if I'm wrong. That's how reads work. If you actually think I'm supposed to stop pushing my strongest scumread simply because I admit I could be wrong, then I don't know what you want me to do here.

You're whole shtick here is trying to smooth talk, show a phony control over the conversation. You don't have it. your argument is nonsense.

This is the part I don't really understand. You're spending a lot of time telling me that my argument is nonsense, but you're not actually answering the central question I've been asking. What specifically caused the Pie read to change as dramatically as it did? Not “town changes reads.” Not “I've explained my reads.”

Not “you've seen me do this as town.” What was the actual new information that made you go from wanting Pie's claim and treating him as a significant scum suspect to calling him solid town? Because that's still the part I don't find convincing. And if you think I've completely misrepresented your progression, then show me where. I'm happy to be wrong here. But calling the argument “stupid,” “nonsense,” or a “phony control” doesn't actually address it.

Regardless of what people want to do here, one thing that needs to happen is we NEED softs from pie, Jen, and Banana. Probably something a bit more from kohai as well. A mass soft doesn't work if half the player base are choosing not to participate.

Claims:

Thoth- 

“At least one statement in the OP is false” + “I am not an Informed Townie.” - Post 5

“My role PM contradicts a statement in the OP.” - Post 30

 Says he is saying #30 mainly to breadcrumb. - Post 31

Says he suspects Whiteflame's apocalypse range based on his expectations of the game + what he can see from his role PM. - Post 42

“Mine kinda make sense. It's not what I would have picked for this 'character' (type of apocalypse), but I get Bullish's thinking.” - Post 52

Says he reread his PM and realized the PM itself is factually incorrect. - Post 87

Reiterates that the PM is factually incorrect according to his understanding/search. - Post 91

Whiteflame- 

Says he got “one of my all-time favorite apocalypses.” - Post 8

Says his apocalypse gives him “clear grounding” on what the game encompasses; suggests the range goes from events killing many people/fundamentally changing the world to the end of humanity. - Post 10

His apocalypse is from a book. - Post 37

Vader- 

“My apocalypse is boring.” - Post 34

“it's scientific.” - Post 94

Lunatic-

“Mine's a pretty common fear, though im unsure how realistic it is. Maybe more realistic if you buy into paranoia from recent events.” - Post 65

Mag1cMan-

“too many people are afraid of mine.” Says there are a couple different ways it could happen and knows a couple in his town who prepare for it. - Post 68

Kohai-

“my character, along with the justification and role, make absolutely zero sense whatsoever.” - Post 51

Unclaimed:

Pie, JenKiggans, Banana

Anyways if other people think I am full of crap or barking up the wrong tree here, I am happy to look elsewhere. This isn't a smoking gun, but its my best lead, and my gut is telling me there's something to it. I've been wrong before, if I am wrong here, point it out to me and I'll try to reconsider. I am not wanting to tunnel vision, even if it seems like I am. I am just trying to explain what I am seeing here.

Originally Posted by Banana on 9/21/2026 at 11:35 PM (post #231)

i think lunatic is making a pretty big case out of something that might just be normal town behavior. changing reads isnt inherently scummy and magic has actually explained why some of his reads changed

i also dont really like the way lunatic keeps framing it as magic being "safe" because im not sure what magic could realistically do differently here. theres still a bunch of people who havent really posted much so obviously reads are gonna be pretty fluid

i dont think lunatic is necessarily wrong about magic but i think hes more interested in making the magic progression look suspicious than actually figuring out why magic changed his reads

I think you're slightly missing what I'm getting at here.

I don't think changing reads is inherently scummy. Obviously town can change their mind, especially this early when there are still people who haven't said much.

The issue for me is more about why Magic is changing his reads and whether the reasoning actually supports the magnitude of those changes.

With Pie, I don't care that Magic went from scum -> town. That's completely fine if he reread Pie and found something that changed his mind. What bothered me was that the explanation for such a big change was basically that he went back and didn't see anything that felt off anymore.

That's a pretty weak reason to go from voting someone and wanting a claim to calling them solid town, in my opinion.

And then once Pie gets moved out of that spot, Kohai becomes the person he's looking at. That's the progression I'm talking about when I say it feels safe. I'm not saying Magic needs to have the game solved or that every read needs to be locked in.

I also don't think I'm just trying to make the progression "look suspicious." If that was all I was doing, I probably wouldn't have spent the time actually asking Magic to explain the changes.

That's the whole point of my case. I want to know what specifically changed his mind, because if the answer is convincing, then great, I'll probably back off.

But "my reads change as I get more information" doesn't really answer the part I'm questioning.

And I don't think the fact that other people haven't posted much really changes that. Fluid reads are fine. Having relatively weak reasons for moving someone from a strong scumread to a strong townread is the part I'm stuck on.

So yeah, I could be wrong about Magic. I'm not saying I've caught him doing something only scum could do. I'm saying I've looked at his progression, I don't like it, and so far his explanation hasn't really changed my mind.

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/21/2026 at 9:07 PM (post #210)

Mag1cman — Scum lean

Still my strongest scum read.

It's not really one specific post. It's more the way his reads seem to move around. I don't care that he changes his reads — obviously town should change their reads when they get new information.

What bothers me is that I don't really understand what is causing the changes.

The Pie → town → potentially reconsidering Pie / focusing on Kohai progression is what I'm looking at the most. His response to my case also felt more like explaining why each individual point wasn't necessarily scummy than actually addressing the overall pattern I was talking about.

So yeah, he's the person I'm most interested in right now.

Looking at how you formatted this post, you clearly read my reads... so what don't you understand about my reads? I felt I explained them pretty well. And as for the bolded part, I don't know what you're expecting of me. YOu can look at my behavior and give some sort of plan behind it, or I could just be town. I can't really prove to you for certain that I'm not masterminding some secret plan where every point I make is carefully crafted to manipulate you, and every little behavior thing isn't part said mastermind plan. It's unfalsifiable.

I also don't understand why you would townread me for stuff you saw me doing in previous town games. I go through my thoughts, then I go back and reorganize. You've seen it so many times.

I'm not saying I don't understand the individual reasons behind your reads. I understand why you moved on Pie, and I understand why you're interested in Kohai. What I don't understand is the weight you're putting on those reads and how quickly you're able to move between them. Like, when I say I don't understand the progression, I don't mean "Magic has not explained himself." You have explained yourself. I'm saying the explanations aren't really resolving my concern. And I definitely don't think you're running some giant mastermind plan where every post is carefully crafted. That's not what I'm accusing you of lol.

I'm looking at the actual behavior and saying that, from my perspective, the way you're handling your reads gives you a lot of flexibility. That's not unfalsifiable. You can absolutely prove me wrong by continuing to play and showing that your reads actually have a consistent progression as we get more information.

If Pie flips town and you were right to move off him, cool. If Kohai gives you more information and your read changes because of it, also cool. That's how town is supposed to work.

What I'm watching for is whether your reads are actually being driven by new information or whether you're mostly finding reasons after the fact for whichever direction you're currently leaning. And on the meta point, I'm not saying "Magic did this as town before, therefore he's town."

I'm saying I've seen you do this kind of thought process as town before, so I'm giving that some weight when I'm trying to figure out your alignment now. If anything, that makes me less confident in the scum read, not more. But the current game still matters more than the meta.

If you think I'm misrepresenting your progression, then tell me what I'm getting wrong about it. Which part of the Pie → town → reconsidering Pie → Kohai progression do you think I'm reading incorrectly?

Because that's the actual thing I'm trying to figure out.

I don't think you're scum because "you changed your reads."

I think you're scum because I'm not convinced the reasons for those changes are as strong as you're making them out to be.

And that's something we can actually test as the game goes on.

Originally Posted by Mag1cman on 9/21/2026 at 9:16 PM (post #213)

Vader — Slight scum lean

I don't have a huge case here yet. There's just not enough from him that makes me want to put him in my town pile.

He's also one of the people Magic has already called out as a scumread, although I'm not really using that as a reason to read him either way.

More of a "I want to see more" than me wanting to push him right now

Is there something specific that bugs you about Vader? this looks like a null read more than slight scum read.

Yeah, that's fair. Looking at how I worded it, Vader is probably more null/slight scum than an actual scum lean. I don't have some specific Vader post where I'm like "this is scummy." It's more that I haven't really seen anything from him that has pushed me toward town either. So if we're being strict with the reads, I'd probably move him to null for now. I think the distinction I'm making is that I'm more interested in seeing what Vader does next than I am in actually pushing him right now. There are people I'm more concerned about at the moment. I also don't want to just slap a scum lean on someone because I haven't townread them yet. That's not really useful.

So yeah, I'd call Vader null, maybe slightly below null, rather than a genuine scum lean.

Thoth null I mean

Alright, here's where I'm at on everyone right now. These aren't hard reads by any means, especially with how little some people have posted.

Thoth — Null

The role PM stuff is still the biggest thing for me here. It’s the main thing people seem to be clearing him but I’d like a bit more before clearing him myself. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for him to have said what he did as scum. I’m not focused on him though as if there is an inconsistency it will reveal itself in time.

Pie — Slight town lean

I actually like Pie a little more after going back through everything. He's been pretty aggressive and isn't really afraid to just go after people, which is his meta. And the bull headedness is something he would do as town. But I figure he’d deflate a bit after all the backlash after the last game didn’t go well for him. I’ll revisit this but for now I’ll give him a town lean

Kohai — Slight town lean

I'm probably a little more town on Kohai than I was earlier. His reasoning around not wanting to claim makes sense to me, especially with scum having the ability to fake a claim.

I still don't love everything about his game, and I think the Pie/Kohai interaction is something we need to figure out. But for now I'm leaning town.

Mag1cman — Scum lean

Still my strongest scum read.

It's not really one specific post. It's more the way his reads seem to move around. I don't care that he changes his reads — obviously town should change their reads when they get new information.

What bothers me is that I don't really understand what is causing the changes.

The Pie → town → potentially reconsidering Pie / focusing on Kohai progression is what I'm looking at the most. His response to my case also felt more like explaining why each individual point wasn't necessarily scummy than actually addressing the overall pattern I was talking about.

So yeah, he's the person I'm most interested in right now.

Vader — Slight scum lean

I don't have a huge case here yet. There's just not enough from him that makes me want to put him in my town pile.

He's also one of the people Magic has already called out as a scumread, although I'm not really using that as a reason to read him either way.

More of a "I want to see more" than me wanting to push him right now.

Whiteflame — Slight scum lean

Pretty similar to Vader. I don't have enough here to really townread him, and some of his stuff hasn't sat great with me.

Again, not someone I'd be looking to hard push right now. I just don't have enough reason to move him toward town.

Jen — Null

Honestly just don't have enough here yet.

I'd rather get more from Jen before trying to force an alignment read.

So basically:

Town: Thoth

Slight town: Pie, Kohai

Slight scum: Vader, Whiteflame

Scum: Magic

Null: Jen

And obviously I'm not married to any of this. Magic is the one I'm most interested in right now, but I'm not trying to make the entire game "Magic is scum therefore everyone else is town." There's still a lot here that needs sorting out.

Originally Posted by Bullish on 9/21/2026 at 4:45 PM (post #189)

Official Vote Count

Pie (2/5) - Kohai, Thoth,

Kohai (1/5) - Pie

JenKiggans (1/5) - magic

magic (1/5) - magic, lunatic

Not voting: Banana, JenKiggans, Vader, whiteflame

DP1 ends in ~19 hours, at 09/22 14:00 EST

You have magic self voting, and voting kiggans. Is this an error or intended?