I WAS FUCKING RIGHT
I WAS FUCKING RIGHT
My gut tells me I am wrong for some reason. Oh well. Due to happen at some point
I think my biggest oversight if I am wrong would be Thoth and not reading him properly,
I just can't see a world where, as scum, you take a huge gambit and claim an SOP role so early on to immiedately draw attention onto yourself
Now let's see if there is a quick vote to end the game from scum. If it doesn't happen relatively soon, I feel decently confident
Alright. I have read both cases up to this point and to be quite honest, it is still a 50/50 choice for me up to this point. I can see either side being scum. Both defenses have been solid to this point. If I am wrong, well I guess my streak of guessing scum correct comes to an end, but I just think that Wryly had some suspicions of Pie in DP2 a lot more and once Rex reminded of the message, they backed off of this. I think looking at Wryly's behavior, they were one of the main aggressors of Pie so far. I also think Pie's argument on Ceru and others are much weaker than I think what Rex has pointed out so far. Pie's damning vote is concering and I understand that he denies it a lot and says we need to get a lynch, but there was no real context and he hated voting Kohai, but had no trouble doing so.
I also just think his logic is wrong about Ceru and can be applied to him. He literally could have asked the same thing about Hider as well in this game and finding that out assumed a Tracker was in. He wanted to push Ceru so hard to use him as a filler in order to get him to the MYLO, but with the Tracker being targetted and the quick claim, he shifts his focus and goes OMGUS because Rex targetted him, setting up a 1v1 situation.
At the end of the day, I just don't think I fully trust Pie to this point. I think he is constantly scum reading, then pivoting on a bandwagon the last minute of the game. It just doesn't feel genuine. He hard pushed Ceru then pivoted to Kohai, and then did the same thing to Shining as well. I also do tend to think that Rex has a strategy of hard town reading someone as his scum mate, but I don't see that here. Also, Rex softed this in DP2 in this. I don't think he takes a risk like that unless scum are given a role like that, and looking at balance, I think his makes a bit more sense
VTL PIE
If we lose the game, I will take some blame for being the L-1, but I think Wryly's interactions with Pie and I think Rex's hard push to defend make me just think this is lazy town. I also do know he hard pushed Kohai early as well. I thought about this for the whole day today.
I'm going to go case by case with each point here for each of Rex and Pie and probably make my decision, if I am wrong, I am wrong. I am starting with Pie and then diving into Rex
I'll start with the end of DP1.#211. Pie 211 initially jumps to Ceru and says "he would rather not vote for Kohai" and even claims he always sees Kohai as suspicious. Not even 15 posts later, Pie goes directly to starting the Kohai train without any rhyme or reason. In fact, the only person was Luna, and his vote was useless and filler. Pie sees that the opportunity could be taken and leads the charge.
The damning thing with Rex is now that he sort of buddies off Pie to get the easy mislynch despite being AWOL for 3/4 of the DP as well. We know that Shining's vote was town. Pie was very vocal about not wanting to lynch, but I think he sees the opportunity to get a mislynch with Luna's vote and sees if he can take advantage by getting 2 town on it because they want to force a lynch.
The second thing is claims.
Rex's claim is arguably the most interesting. Because taking out Luna would take away essentially all of our theme analysis for this show, so he can claim a character like NoHo Hank and get away with it, despite the character going against my character, which is a town character. I also find it weird that Wryly did not mention anything of being in a chat during Dp2. This definetly does not confirm them, but at least we know they had that role.
Pie's role is even more damning because this claim comes IMMEDIATELY after the Tracker is dead. We already know Shining was a JK, which acts as protective / RB from what I know.
I just really am at a rock and a hardplace
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Kohai
So I think it is as this point that we know Pie and Rex are probably 1 of 1 scum. We also know there is a combination of one of those on a team, because if they were both fighting, I don't think the DP would still be alive. The question now is, who is the most believable and viable?
Catching up on pings and then going to reread
There also is not really a claimed role which I would call “confirmable” or a wild card. Rex’s role fits that wild card motto that I set
I want to make sure I’m at 100% with my read and there’s no doubts so I don’t think I’m voting. I frankily don’t love the Neighborizer and Wryly still never put Rex in a town pile in DP2 even with Neighborizer. I get it, this doesn’t lock Rex as town but imo I still think there’s some bias of town reading someone because you are in a message with them
I don’t think it’s Ceru, and I don’t think it’s Rex/Pie
It’s literally Thoth, Rex, or Pie in the POE at this point. Whoever of Rex and Pie is scum is likely the locking the other.
Thoth is also convienantly forgetting about No Ho Hank’s betrayal and trying to align that with a team as well which makes me believe he’s kinda at bat for Pie. I also don’t think he’s considering Pie enough considering that he’s just NOW claiming Hider
I think it’s Thoth / Pie. If I am wrong I am wrong but that’s what my gut is and after Thoth’s response I’m leaning that way
Hard to process this at the moment with a fresh DP and a relatively busy day. I will be out tonight celebrating another birthday. Will be online most Saturday until I watch the Bears game.
I have to think about this slightly more than average because I am a pass here
This is a tough game to decide
In DP1 I did not start the lynch and wasn't even on it.
I started the wagon in DP2 and was the charge of it, you hopped on quite literally at the last second despite pushing Ceru hard. Now IMO he's town lock (almost)
I made this game fairly recently after the Chicago Bears went 0-2. My life as a Bears fan has been ass. The Bears are an NFL team that, despite being one of the most historic and oldest franchises, has only won 1 superbowl Bowl and has never had a QB throw for more than 4,000 yards.
This game is designed for 9, but can be tweaked for 8, but it would be preferable not.
The game would start after Christmas, role PMs and Discord getting set up 24-48 hours in advance, depending on sign-ups and whatnot. Join up if you are interested.
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Also just saying, I know this is like the second Whiteflame game ever so this sample size is so small, but he had literally a game where he had only 1 vanilla in a 9 person setup as well in this
Hider is just such a weak claim at this point in time consider NOW we know that a Watcher was in the game. Cerulean claimed the Gravedigger right away.
Strengthener with a town JK is feasible, maybe Thoth plays on the claim by claiming his actual mafia role at that point, but it makes a lot of sense.
I feel like Rex's flip does make sense, considering my affiliation and such. It is hard to see. I just find it hard to buy Pie's claim considering his lazy last-second lynch on Kohai
Hmm.
Rex’s claim make sense from my characters perspective and what not. I do like his claim. I guess the action is a bit convenient but we will see. Feels like he was trying to scum hunt. But he also betrayed someone by getting info so this could be a scum role.
I’m also gonna claim right away. I am Cristobal Sifuentes and I am the vanilla. I slowly fade from relevance from the plot before dying at the end after being captured and going through brainwashing and was betrayed by Hank after being saved
Essentially locks Cerulean by the way
Its essentially a POE of Rex, Pie, Thoth
Yes
If the most recent season is season 4
But they also die in the most recent season
From looking at the wiki and such, he seems to be in every season.
Also don’t love that justification either
Strengthener is usually a scum claim most times, but him quick claiming makes up based on that transparency
Thoth’s claim kind of locks Shining as my pick. I need to read that more but after his claim I think I’m set on Shining.
Again, did you not see my big GAP when I posted my top 3
Don't think I'm pivoting off Shining IMO. I have a birthday dinner tonight so probably not going to hop on tonight but I think I'm set where I'm at. I'll check before bed but if the vote shifts to Rex, I don't have a problem with that lynch either because I think his reasoning for voting is pretty narrow minded considering all the other people who share the sentiment with more activity.
I think a lot of people would've had a lot of suspicion on Kohai after claiming confirmable and then having an unconfirmable role. If he did that I would actually think it's more townie but the fact he pivoted off his top read to Kohai in Dp1 doesn't sit right at all with me. I also just don't think Pie apologies in the scenario no matter what if he's scum or town