whiteflame

Got it. Instead of just claiming popular town if I were popular scum. I would have wasted a partners fake claim to claim somrthing that stuck out like a sore thumb at the start of the game.

...unless, of course, you could call two players as town early on, give yourself a mess of towncred before you claimed (with two players who have since been killed off in the night), then use the fake claim with the express aim of making it count the following DP while avoiding having your partner claim at all costs (or just waiting for all the claims to be out so that your partner could fake claim without any chance of being CC'd). Or you could have just winged it and claimed Caroler without a fake claim to base it off of. It's a little riskier, but the difference is not dramatic.

My goal here is not to say that you are proof positive scum. I'm explicitly not going down this rabbit hole to explain that you must be scum because you could have done all this. I'm pointing to reasons why you should not be dismissed you as obvious town. If you've got some basis for confirming yourself as town that I'm unaware of, be my guest and present it.

so you think I openly claimed this when they were given a fake a claim?

I think it’s entirely plausible, particularly if you received a fake claim of Dreamer. Easy enough to intuit that there’s no Caroler, that the latter is easier to fake claim (you wouldn’t have to know if you were visited and failures have several explanations) and go ahead with it. It’s not my working assumption atm, but I can’t dismiss it, either.

On a claim that was never likely to get directly CC’d unless there is a Dreamer in the game or another BP? If you’re scum, you absolutely would have taken that risk. It’s not a massive one.

Back-tracking? I’ve said repeatedly, multiple times over the course of this DP, that I have trouble buying that we’re both in this game. It makes sense why you behaved the way you did given your claim. That’s true whether it’s real or fake. And I’ve been saying, over and over again, that your result is valid if that’s actually your role, which is an assumption that comes with absolutely no validation at this point. Yes, you boldly claimed early. Yes, beyond the slight variation of your Caroler role (which dramatically shifts how it balances itself), you’ve been consistent with that claim. What evidence do we have that you are actually the Caroler or BP? Is consistency evidence?

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Mikal is not townlocked. If his result is correct, then he’s strongly implicated Awesome. That is not and should not be treated as a given. He’s demonstrated his Popular role. That’s it. He’s claimed a type of Caroler that is distinct from any I’ve seen before - part of the balance of that role is potentially being able to send results to scum, but now it auto-validates someone must be scum if they didn’t get a result. It’s possible. It’s confusing as hell from a balance perspective, particularly on a player who can’t be NK’d.

Just because he claimed early and pointed out mod confirmations for two players who are conspicuously dead now does not mean he’s town locked, and I don’t know why anyone aside from him would treat Mikal as obvious town at this point. It’s particularly baffling coming from REF. If he disbelieves the role balance in this game, as he said he does, both of us should be questionable to him but he’s all in on my being scum.

example: literally every question Mikal just gave me, I covered already.

I'm done talking to these two until the rest of you get in here to expand the conversation. Tag/sus me all you want at this point, I'll focus on the rest of the group.

You may as well appeal to max and pie. No idea why you are tagging your scum partner.

Think you're slick, huh?

I love how both Mikal and REF are justifying the decision for the latter not to claim on the basis that this lynch is absolutely assured to be scum. I understand the basis for Mikal thinking that since he has solid evidence to that effect. REF should at least be a little unsure. Both of them keep talking about all the WIFOM reasons why scum would fake well or use their fake claim in a way that nets them an obvious lynch (as if there's no obvious lynch on the table that requires absolutely none of that).

Do any of the three of you agree that the priority should be to avoid further claims, even among players everyone has acknowledged are in POE, in MYLO/LYLO on the basis that we might get a night action that isn't meddled with? Seriously, polling the room on this.

I'm leaving this conversation here because this is going nowhere and I'd like to hear from one of the other four people left in this game. If there is widespread agreement that REF's claim doesn't matter because he might fake claim or just clam up if he's scum, or because he might be interfered with in the night if he's town, then I'll go with the group, but it makes 0 sense to me.

Please explain to me both scenarios.

as town I concede. If he has something that altered last night. He should speak up

as scum. Please explain in which case he would ever derail a mislynch and what him fake claiming does to contribute to finding out I’m wrong. Any scenario you can imagine.

I'm not playing this vague game. The only value you've claimed to his silence is that we potentially get some unknown night action from him that isn't interfered with NP2. We lynch correctly this DP or we lose. Figuring out potential scum pairings should be part of basic town strategy this DP. If we're just going to lynch Awesome and hope for the best, we better at least have some idea who is likely scum partner is before we do it, and I don't see any reason why we wouldn't inform that as fully as possible.

Again, dude, I do not get your priorities at all. You've spoken repeatedly, over and over again from the start of this DP, of being able to solve this game and pursuing that. Yet, here you are, arguing that we shouldn't solve because there's anti-claim on the table and roles could get fucked with in the night... just after saying that you want Pie to role claim. Seriously, at least be somewhat consistent. I'll ask again: why, specifically, do you not want REF to claim? What hints has he given you about his role that make you trust him going into this DP? If you have none, what if any is the actual fucking point of waiting on his claim while you are actively seeking Pie's role?

2) you explain how anything he says affects what happened. I invite him to say something that affected it. If I’m wrong. As a scum hes just going to shut up and let it ride. The only person who would say something is town. So sure if he has info that changes my analysis. I invite him to claim or speak up

3) you tell me how him claiming helps get the lynch right? If he had relevant info he would say it. As scum if the lynch is wrong he doesn’t speak anyway.

So now the onus is on me to explain how an unknown claim from REF could affect the game. I don't know. Neither do you. He's a black box, he could have any role, so I can't say what his completely unknown role could do to affect the outcome of this DP or the next. The absence of that role claim certainly isn't helping remove him from POE or lock him into any expectation of what he'll do next NP. I have no idea how that helps us.

And if he's not going to speak at all, for the next 2 full days, then that should implicate him too. I'll ask again: why is this a reason not to seek his claim?

1) do you think he is going to claim something as scum that doesn’t line up with what’s been claimed. You either think he’s retarted or just not paying attention if so. Literally every night action has been said

By that logic, why bother having him claim at all? He's always going to be able to fake a claim because he has all other claims on the table. That's as true this DP as it is next. At least if he claims this DP, he gets held to what he's claimed next DP.

2) there could be a small margin of error in what I did. Max being anti claimed and me being role blocked. But at that rate. 3 people dying and my role past that being useless. Not much I can do.

...so you acknowledge a margin of error in the very way you think you solved the game, but aren't interested in getting as much information as possible about the only player in your POE who hasn't claimed?

3) why do you think locking him into something now is better when we can lock him into it tomorrow and awesome is today’s lycnh regardless? He won’t have tomorrows night actions and has to claim or validate what someone did. We have him claim first and if anything is inconsistent we caught him. On the chance he is town. It’s telling mafia how to fuck with his role and exposing him to anti claimed shit when we already have today’s target.

Why are you so concerned about what scum will do with his night actions over ensuring that we get this lynch right? Losing the utility of a night action has to play second fiddle to that, right? You just acknowledged that there's a non-zero chance that your strategy may not have yielded an accurate result.

4) if pie claims anything but innocent child I’m prob outright killing him. He literally said his role is used on dp3 and he’s affil lock. Not worried about by pie. He will die tomorrow or not

I'm setting Pie aside for now. He's at least heavily implied his role. What does REF have in his favor here?

I'd like others to chime in on this. Can anyone think of a single reason why REF shouldn't claim this DP? Has anyone even seen him soft his role?

So, basically, because you have what you view as absolute proof that Awesome is scum, the rest of us should just buy into it and not even consider a completely unclaimed player who is still in even your POE? I really don't get this, dude. If he's going to fabricate a claim as scum, then why aren't you interested in taking the time to interrogate that claim this DP? We have plenty of time to discuss it, and we have Pie's claim still in the wings. Why wait? Hell, even your final argument that "there will be shit he can't account for" doesn't make sense to me. Why not push him to claim and then hold him to what he tells us he can do next DP?

Realized I miswrote that. If we're at 4-2, we're at MYLO, if we're at 3-1-2, we're at LYLO. Since we must lynch, they're functionally the same anyway.

I'm just going to point out that I don't care for this type of IRL analysis. Mike and I talk regularly, so he knows my schedule etc, and I'm not going to disagree with the validity of this, nor will I push back against it (there are details that aren't exactly accurate, but the conclusion is accurate enough), since it is a case arguing I'm town, which I am, but I still don't care for it since its outside of the game directly - just like the mod psych/error analysis which I also don't like... Anyways, just wanted to point that out.

I don't much appreciate this type of analysis, either. Mikal really leans into it just about every game. I'll have a rule against that in my game when it comes up.

The part of this that is still bothering me most is that you said, proof positive, we'd be down to two people at this point. You've been saying that almost the entire DP. Now, though, you've started hedging. You acknowledge that REF remains in POE, so it's down to three: Awesome, REF and me. Assuming that's all accurate, I have to ask again: why aren't you interested in getting REF's claim this DP? I get that what happened with your role implicates Awesome, but again, regardless of whether it's 4-2 or 3-1-2, we're at MYLO. I've full claimed, so has Awesome. Why are you treating REF as an outlier that doesn't matter until next DP?

Now I'm really off for the night. Going to want ppl's thoughts on this analysis from Mikal because it changes a few things and explains some of what he's done this DP.

I couldn't help myself, had to hop back on and check.

Honestly, the case you're making looks pretty solid against Awesome. I understand why you were keeping the details secret (though I'll note I was calling out how the Caroler didn't work on targets that visit at night back when you claimed initially, the "this doesn't work on scum" twist is distinct).

At this point, it's mainly a matter of whether I buy that this is your actual role and this is what actually happened last NP. Frankly, I agree with what many people have already said about this: I don't think there are this many protective and investigative roles, and each of us has one of each. Either the balance is way off or someone's lying, and given we have a flip for each, our claims in particular stand out.

So if you're telling the truth, and you've certainly been hinting at something this important all DP long, then your case is stronger than mine regarding Awesome. My Cop could have been manipulated in more ways than your Caroler.

As for the conclusions you've drawn from that, they largely make sense. Where I'm struggling most, though, is with the absence of REF in any of these posts. You've got strong reasons for townreading Max. Fine. I'll set aside any uncertainty regarding Pie's claim for now and assume it will confirm him. Why does REF uniquely escape your notice?

It's late and I'm tired. I'll give Mikal the time he needs to write up everything he's got and I can address it in the morning. Tomorrow, everyone should be in on that discussion at some point.

i can 100 percent promise you he is confirmed scum unless David bastard modded

Then give me the evidence. I'm fine mistrusting my Cop result if you've got something significant, but so far, I haven't seen anything.

Okay. I’ll post in a bit. Wf and him are scum

So, your thinking here is that I bussed my partner at the end of the last DP saying he was my choice for the lynch with very little time left, allowed myself to be derailed from that lynch by you, and then claimed to visit and Cop him innocent because... I guess I was done bussing him?

Again, really interested to get that essay.

doesnt anti claim by definition mean you have to claim to have it impact you. Did I miss it and did either of those 2 claim?

Thats been how I’ve seen it used in games on here and on DART, yes. Not the only way I’ve seen it described for games on other sites, but I’ll grant you that would not be usual for here.

For what it’s worth. I don’t think you’re scum. I think your town or tp

Well, at least you’re closer to being correct. I’ll take the 50-50.

Guess we’re of two very different minds on this. While we’re at it, let’s ignore the repetition in the OP of “extremely nasty” and the synonymous “very nasty” next to the anti-claim mechanic. I’m not expecting this form of anti-claim to be the same as ones we’ve seen because I’ve never seen a mod emphasize the impact of it so severely. Why should we assume anti-claim is functionally the same as it has in previous games? Why couldn’t the result harm unclaimed town members?

I will give an early insight. I think it’s 3-2-1 

which is why I asked wf if he thought it was mylo. If someone assuming that death is from anti claim it’s way to much tmi. Logical thought is there is a tp sk in game

That seems like such a logical leap to me. We know there was a second NK. We don’t know what the source for that was. I’ve mentioned that the anti-claim mechanic could have affected that. It’s the logical conclusion to derive from the four claims we had in DP1 when we know anti-claim was in play and no one aside from Max has claimed to be interfered with. A TP SK is an assumption based on nothing from the OP or anything mod confirmed, just a means to fill in the blank of why a second NK could have happened.

Youve done crazier things aka shoot a claimed PGO. You know this is WIFOM.

I need to reread DP1

Shooting you when you claimed is one thing, since that was betting on whether you were telling the truth. Going into a DP with two flips that CC each of the roles I’m planning to claim and two existing claims on the table that do the same and going ahead with the dual fake claim anyway would be beyond anything I’ve ever tried before, particularly in a game like this where I, as scum, would only need one mislynch to end this and attention on me detracts from that.

It’s WIFOM, yes, but damn, this would be the worst informed fake claim choice I’ve ever decided to go ahead with.

What is your justification?

As I said before, the justification is that there’s almost nothing I can’t create or solve. I largely just assume the doc is because Dexter wears a lab coat. Can’t explain the cop at all.

So a Doctor as well? Definitely don’t like this claim at all. At this point it’s a direct CC to Vader, Thoth, Mikal, and Unsaid

Yes, so obviously I'd make the very smart choice as scum to fake my claim in such a way that I would partially CC two flipped players and two other claims on the table. Certainly doesn't make me stand out as obvious. I understand not liking the CC, but come on man. Do you seriously think I'd give a fake claim as scum that CCs this many people and then decide to use it in full after that flip?

Why target awesome again?

From DP1:

"As for Awesome, I don't love that he came back on, took his time claiming, posted that there was something up with the wording of his claim, and then just kind of dipped after dropping a pretty unique role. No doubt it fits with the rules of this game, and he seems to be relying on that entirely for his survival this DP, just peacing out as soon as he could rather than explaining himself at all aside from providing some light reads and a couple of responses to other points. It's weird and it sticks out."

Based on the OP, I believed his role was real, so if he was scum, it ruled him out as the GF. His role was non-alignment indicative, so he would only ever be in POE. I wanted to either have good reason to push him or take him out of my POE.