Based on demographic projections by the
Pew Research Center, Muslims are projected to outnumber Christians globally around the year 2070, if current demographic trends continue.
Key Projections and Driving Factors
- Near Parity by 2050: By the middle of the 21st century (around 2050), the number of Muslims worldwide is projected to nearly equal the number of Christians (approximately 2.8 billion Muslims and 2.9 billion Christians).
- Faster Growth Rate: Islam is the world's fastest-growing major religion. Between 2010 and 2050, the global Muslim population is projected to grow by 73%, compared to 35% for Christians.
- Highest Fertility Rate: The primary driver of this growth is the high fertility rate among Muslims (an average of 3.1 children per woman), which is well above the replacement level (2.1) and higher than the Christian rate (2.7 children per woman).
- Younger Population: Muslims have a younger age distribution than other religious groups. In 2010, one-third of the Muslim population was under the age of 15, meaning a large share of adherents are entering their prime childbearing years.
- Births vs. Deaths: Muslim births are expected to outnumber Christian births by around 2035. While Christianity is growing in some regions like sub-Saharan Africa, Christians in other areas, particularly Europe, are older and dying at a faster rate than Muslims.
Important Considerations
The Pew Research Center studies emphasize that these are projections based on existing data and trends, and various unpredictable factors could alter these trajectories:
- War, famine, disease, economic shifts, or political changes are all factors that could impact population dynamics.
- Rates of religious conversion (which currently have a minimal net impact on the global Muslim population but result in a net loss for Christianity) could change.
- The large population of religiously unaffiliated people in China could significantly affect global numbers if a large share were to formally adopt a religion.
Overall, while Christians remain the world's largest religious group for now, demographic trends strongly indicate a future shift in the global religious landscape.
Muslim-majority countries hold a significant portion of the world's oil reserves and production, especially in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, UAE, Kuwait), giving them substantial influence, but
they don't exclusively "control" it, as major producers like the U.S., Russia, and China are non-Muslim, and oil is a global resource found everywhere. The concentration of oil in the Muslim world has significantly shaped global economics and politics, creating powerful oil-exporting states, but production and ownership are diverse, with non-Muslim nations also being major players.