A-Bleys

Being back on mobile there will be less direct quotes and a bit more brevity.

In the 150s Llewella does a lot of mech analysis. Mech analysis is NAI for the most part, with a few caveats I'm holding onto until I think over it a bit more.

In the 160s they begin to look at the wagons in the same way I did. I wish there was more consideration of the Brand wagon that proceeded the EoD wagons, but I see why Llewella mentioned the mind meld today and I'm feeling it too.

205 from Random continues to reinforce a feeling I've been having. There's so much effort into making a big deal out of maybe frustrated with anonymity and now there's the attempt to turn that into scumhunting. It feels strongly to me that the frustration is fake and this is all an angle to avoid engaging in behavioral analysis.

Question to everyone, I know the game changed from when signups were originally posted to when it went live. How much notice did you have that it would be an anonymous game?

Llewella, may you elaborate more on the game balance point you made here?

I will say for a second time Jailor should never reveal. Take that shit to your death if Regent is alive. I think its highly likely they exist because game balance may not be possible without Regent/Jailor both existing.

Random.

PC is set up but running very slowly. Might need to make sure everything is wired properly. I'll deal with that later. For now I'm going to be present in the thread if anyone has questions while I continue my read of DP2

For what it's worth, I asked Mago some time ago and the Mafia would not be informed of the contents of the redacted role pm. When I was questioning why we we assume the jailor was alive it became important to know if the Mafia would have been told if the jailor was dead. I also confirmed that the jailor could execute in the same night they were killed.

I am also VT. I've been out and about getting a new monitor and desk. I'm just about home and I should have time to work on catching up more before work. Especially as I can use a keyboard now that's not in Cyrillic

Absolutely there is. We need to lynch scum not 3p.

All you are saying is the we need to lynch scum. The consideration of 3p is an added, superfluous step. I'm still waiting for you to explain to me why town would think about the game not ending when Mafia has a majority.

Further, did you feel a Martin wagon would become viable that close to the end of the DP, or was your vote a statement

I do not understand this point. I hadn't joined a wagon up to that point, yeah, but (1) I was still playing catch up, and (2) the only real wagon at that point other than myself was Flora, whom I hadn't scumread. Plus, I had already stated my reasons to sus Martin earlier, so it wasnt mere "sheeping" like you suggest. This framing feels dishonest.

Why did you feel the need to wait for Deidre to comment on Martin to vote there if you already scumread Martin?

Counter point: If we lynch 3p and the NK isn’t stopped then town loses.

6 players alive

assuming 3p

2 scum v 1 tp v 3 town

If we lynch a 3p we still lose.

This works towards my point. There's no reason for town to be considering 3p right now.

A-Caine wrote:

Anyone notice the inconsistency here

1) Caine scummy for not considering 3p in his calculation

2) Cain scummy for considering 3p in MyLo.

Let’s play a game.

One of these things is not like the other. One of these things doesn’t belong

can you guess which thing is not like the other

before I finish my song

Right, let's go more in depth.

1) Mafia doesn't, on a general level, care about 3p when calculating numbers.

2) The particularity of the game not ending when Mafia has a majority is such an extreme consideration that it breaks the mold.

I posit that (1) occurred naturally in the mafia chat, and (2) arose when questioned about (1)

3p have their own win conditions which may not end the game when mafia has a majority. For example there could still be an executioner with a target left. The game will continue

other 3p has to be the last person standing.

And this is exactly the kind of scenario I don't expect a townie to think about.

The problem with this thinking is that mafia don’t know if there’s a 3p or not. The balance of power could have easily have been 6 v 1 v 3. And honestly there’s still a strong possibility there’s a third party left.

That's simply not a flaw in my logic. Mafia only needs to get a majority. When they run internal calculations they don't need to consider third party. It's only mafia v the field.

A-Caine wrote:

I've already responded to the alleged "scum slip." The calculation was based on the worst case scenario for town. I was not considering third parties in my calculation.

I don't think that answer is responsible to my concerns. The slip isn't that you know there aren't third parties, it's that you simultaneously acknowledged 9 players remaining and a 7v3 scenario. For one, mafia more readily dismisses third parties than town in internal calculations (the opposite is true externally). Second, there is dissonance from premeditatation which is a scum tell.

A-Llewella wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

Why not Caine?

I am not sure I understand the question.

As far as todays elimination I just generally felt they were towny digging through the Fiona situation. I looked at how each player interacted with Fiona and how Fiona interacted with them between you, Brand, Random and Caine. Cain was the one who looked good to me hard shoving Fiona D2 that looked far past bussing to me.

The question is irt when you told me after I replaced in that you saw 2 scum between me, Brand, and Random.

I haven't finished catching up yet, but I'm eager to read the interactions on the Fiona lynch.

Why not Caine?

Just got back from the barber. I will likely be heading out soon to watch the game, but I'm going to get started on DP2.

I want to have thoughts on Flora's will, but given the nature of the player I feel that it could be filled with deliberate misinformation about at least 1 player that will be able to be revealed later.

I am curious as to why Julian was killed. They weren't threatening and their reads were minimal. Honestly, and take this very loosely, it slightly makes me suspicious of Llewella. I say that because it's the type of NK I would do. I like to kill off weaker or less active players because I want a challenge interacting with the more engaged and accurate players. I feel like Llewella would view things the same way. There's nuances such as Llwella not having final say over who to kill, etc, etc, but I don't want to delve too deep into them because this is more of a note of interest than an actual read.

Out the gate I really don't like 18 from Caine. There is an immediate minimizing of their presence on the Flora wagon the entire DP and a shifting of responsibility for the Martin mislynch from themself. I really don't like 17 either, tbh. It reads as trying-to-be-subtle-WIFOM.

There may be something to be said about Caine opening on Fiona. With that said, it feels to me like the Fiona lynch was inevitable. But my valuation of Caine's vote is necessarily filtered through hindsight. The biggest issue I'm having with Caine as I reach 33 is that they are using the replacement of the Brand slot to not actually make meaningful reads on Brand. 34 just reads more of "none of this is my fault."

103 Here comes the backtrack from Random that I have been waiting for. I'm eager to get to the part of the DP where they put into writing their new thoughts on Brand.

104

I lowkey wana read kohai as saying 7-3 as a scum slip but I think he's just dumb and seems like he can't count

Hold on. This actually might be gold from Random. This references 10 from Caine,

9 alive

we we 7 v 3

we have very little room for error

This very much reads as someone who has talked about and internalized that the game would be 7v3 going into the DP. They were so engaged with their plan and how to transition the game from 7v3 to 5v3 to winning, or 7v3 to 6v2 to 4v2 to winning that once the DP went up, they didn't adjust their alignment count for the town-sided NK that they weren't expecting.

I'm going to head out to watch the game now. I will be back later tonight and active tomorrow morning / early afternoon. I might post a bit on my phone while I'm out.

Right now I'm looking at Random, Caine, Brand, Llewella in that order. I'm pretty comfortable reading Llewella as town in that group, but that's the PoE.

DP1 561 is the first big question mark for me. Flora is town. I'm town. Martin is town. If t!Brand, how did the day end up in a 50/50 not even involving him?

DP1 637 is a very odd post to me. Random says,

I did not like brands idea of a mass claim

I disliked the wagon that formed off it even more.

In 213, 214, and 215, Random starts the Brand wagon. This is in direct response to Brand contemplating whether or not we should mass claim. I believe there's worlds where Brand is town, and worlds where Brand is scum. I think that there are more worlds where Brand is scum, but we will be exploring the implications of both worlds. I do not think there are many worlds where a townie starts a wagon and then proceeds to simultaneously (1) re-justify the wagon and (2) criticize the existence of the wagon. This reeks of a mafia slip. In the s!Brand worlds, Random wants to derail the wagon on his teammate. In the t!Brand worlds, Random knows that the wagon is a mislynch and is preemptively shading the 3 town on the wagon. At this point in my reading I'm heavy scum on Random, moderate scum on Brand.

It's worth also considering the positioning of the other 2 possible scum at this point in time, Caine and Llewella. Caine opened a wagon on Flora back in 290 saying,

Let’s get a real wagon going.

At this time there was a wagon going on Brand, at 3/7. Putting them on 4/7 would indicate real pressure, and the wagon was very much not RVS at that point. Starting a fresh wagon without reason other than,

flora and Llewella are the two I want to pressure and hear from

does not strike me as, "starting a real wagon". I could see it as attempting to distract from a s!Brand wagon, but I also see a very real world where s!Random and s!Caine had communicated in scum chat that with town driven momentum on a t!Brand wagon, it's an ideal time to start a t!counterwagon.

Llewella was second on the Brand wagon in 222. In a s!Random world, I think it's a less than ideal plan for Llewella to take the #2 slot on a town wagon started by scum. I also think that Llewella is experienced enough to not do that. This leads me to tentatively disconnect Random and Llewella as a pairing. In continuation, Llewella reiterates in 362 that Brand looks bad, then 2 minutes later starts picking a fight with Gerard who has no real pressure against him. This lack of focus reads as town to me. As scum you are making plans, conscious or unconscious. As town you are much more likely to express thoughts as stream of consciousness. Not only is it very dissonant to say one player looks really bad and immediately jump off them, but it's also not the most obvious strategic decision to pick a fight with the hyper poster in the process. Dissonance is town for me. The more I lean t!Llewella, the more I lean s!Random. Keep in mind that this analysis started questioning how a t!Brand leads to a 50/50 without him involved. We're looking at 2 confirmed townies on the wagon, myself, who I at least know is town, and potentially t!Llewella in the world that s!Random=true. That's 3 town on the wagon and 1 more positionally supporting it. At most we have 1 scum on the wagon in 637, so I'm getting heavier on s!Brand=true.

Time to continue reading...

In 698 Oberon objects to the Brand wagon. However, they strongly change their position in 712 and 717 after the sub out. At this point there are 3 town on the wagon and 1-2 more who have positionally supported the wagon. It takes 7 to lynch, and we're looking at 4-5 town already supporting the lynch. In a t!Random world, t!Brand there's actively 4 town on the wagon, 0 mafia, and 1 town (Oberon, with Llewella necessarily being scum in this world), positionally supporting the wagon. There's no way I believe that t!Brand converts to a 50/50 lynch. Keep in mind that the other part of the 50/50 wasn't Brand. You also have to keep in mind that Caine has been constantly active around this time. I think as I read on and get to how the counterwagons form it will say a lot about Caine's alignment. At this point I am growing suspicion towards s!Brand=true, which just makes me think the remaining scum at Brand and Random.

722 is another ping post for me. Remember earlier when Random simultaneously shaded Brand and also criticized the wagon? The entire time they stayed on the wagon letting it gain settle in as a legitimate EOD option? Now they are claiming,

Already was wanting to kill them and now want to kill them more tbh

If you were so confident about wanting to kill them, why shade the wagon, if not to shade the players on the wagon? Again, there are reasons for s!Random to take this line with both t!Brand and s!Brand. The t!Brand reasons remain the same as before. An added reason to strengthen their stance against s!Brand is that Fiona is MIA and therefore s!Random could feel without help trying to save s!Brand. I still don't know how I can readon Random's line this DP as town. To explain further, look at my town read on Llewella. I read dissonance and inconsistency as town. Town doesn't know things early on. It is necessary for them to be more free form and to continue turning over rocks and engage in side investigations even if they have more developed reads elsewhere. Mafia is structured. They have plans and they don't want to appear flippant. Random seems very hesitant to move their vote while swingy back and forth on how they feel about the wagon itself. It doesn't feel town to me.

On a side note 750,

If I like Brands responses, I am lynching Flora today I think. Llewella won't be as challenging of a lynch in later phases if they are scum as flora will be.

says so much about what is wrong about the approach to mafia on this site.

Okay, now we get to Martin flipping from Brand to Flora in 774, leaving the vote count at,

Automated Vote Count

This vote count was generated by the mafia vote bot.

A-Brand (4/7): A-Random (p#215), A-Flora (p#533), A-Bleys (p#232), A-Oberon (p#729)

A-Flora (4/7): A-Caine (p#290), A-Gerard (p#649), A-Julian (p#646), A-Martin (p#774)

A-Llewella (2/7): A-Brand (p#6), A-Deirdre (p#628)

A-Bleys (1/7): A-Llewella (p#670)

Not Voting (1): A-Fiona

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day phase ends in 15 hours.

Their reasoning was God awful, but here we are. Depending on how the next few posts develop, I may be willing to disconnect Brand and Random. The explanation of how t!Brand survives has very clearly become, players on this site are more willing to lynch people they fear than people who they scumread. This is with the fact in mind that Fiona is inactive, so there are at most 2 scum on the wagons. None of this changes my reads on Random, but if he doesn't do anything to edge the Flora wagon past the Brand wagon, I will find it hard to read Brand and Random as SvS. I also have a very hard time seeing s!Llewella sitting to the side while looking at a t!Brand and Flora wagon.

867 More reason to disconnect Random and Brand. With that said, why the commitment to staying on Brand if you think in 873,

Initial paring in my head is brand flora or brand Martin

Sure, %s!Brand > %s!Flora, but if you think Flora is an option as well, why would you be so obstinate to switch?

It's worth nothing that Fiona is entirely absent from Random's gaze in 874. Sure, they are inactive, but that would make them a null, not an exclusion to the list.

978 into 980 from Fiona 2 minutes later is not a good look for Brand, There was about 75 minutes left in the DP. This reeks of mafia telling Fiona to get on the Flora wagon as soon as they reappered in the game.

1013 from Brand is icky. Sheeping Deidre on what is not even a wagon at that point at the end of the DP after spending the entire day not being on a real wagon is gross behavior.

Caine in 1141 abandoning a wagon they were on all game to 50/50 what ended up being TvT is the dumbest shit ever. I can't tell if this is to appease Flora in the case that they live, or just horrible play.

Tell me right now why the scum team isn't Caine and Random. I understand now how Brand survived. Town on this site treats mafia as a fear factor game and not a scum hunting game. I could still see s!Brand, but the end of DP1 was a masterclass in how to do things for the wrong reasons, which genuinely mucks up what was a really productive DP.

I'm starting DP2 now, but I'll be leaving to get a haircut in a bit so I figured I'd post my DP1 analysis.

Yes, but I'm reading for the first time with the knowledge that certain players are certain alignments, so I want to work through my theories to completion before getting distracted talking about them with incomplete information.

I'm just past 500 posts. Took an hour and a half break for the gym.

Still present. Still working my way through DP1. All of the complaining about anonymous accounts inhibiting the ability to make behavioral reads is sad. Excising past individual incidents actually raises the bar for behavioral analysis. If anonymity were maintained, the game analysis would be more driven by behavioral reads, not less.

A-Deirdre wrote:

Jailor must out their target.

Yeah, I 100% think that before hammer Jailor should out a target.

Question: why?

We know scum have no roles to interfere with wills at this point. Why not have the Jailor leave their target in their will? Worst case scenario, they die and reveal their target. Best case, they survive and tell us.

The will point is very valid

A-Caine wrote:

One potential problem: Mafia can waive NK to incriminate the person that was jailed.

That's only a problem if we successfully lynch. There's still value in setting a jail target up in case we mislynch.

I'd rather we spend the first 24-36 hours of the day not knowing who the jailor is. Commit people to reads before confirming someone.

A-Caine wrote:

Welcome. Can you claim?

I can. I won't at this moment.

I realize now that the mod did not make an announcement and it's possible that reading between the lines is difficult, so I will make it painfully clear. I am a new replacement to the game. I am not the same player who originally used this account. That is why I need time to catch up. Thank you for your patience.

A-Caine wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

Fair enough. I am doing to delve into the past thoroughly in solitude, lest the Maiden Llewella grow more upset that my 50 minutes in this world is insufficient to have such familiarity with the stage of current events as she possesses herself.

You’re making it incredibly difficult to find you as town. If you’re town you need to actually do more than speaking in riddles. Actually do something.

I am in the process of reading through the game. There are 1700 hundred posts to get through. I've been in the game from about an hour and a half. I have to read the game before I can comment on the game. You all are very close to having me replace out and letting you deal with the inactive slot. I'm doing the game a favor joining in and committing the vast majority of my day to catching up. You all need to stop demanding more from me faster. Give me the time to read. Thank you.

Fair enough. I am doing to delve into the past thoroughly in solitude, lest the Maiden Llewella grow more upset that my 50 minutes in this world is insufficient to have such familiarity with the stage of current events as she possesses herself.

Maiden, I have 1600 posts to read through before I have behavioral reads.

I think you misunderstand my concern. I understand that a jailor exists. What I am asking is if anyone has been jailed after the Mafia used their illusionist. I want to confirm that we know the jailor is not dead before we give a jailor claim a free green check.

A-Llewella wrote:

A-Bleys wrote:

Am I correct in believing that the Lord of Chaos could not have body swapped yet as there would be a Lord of Chaos flip at night?

There is no Mafia Disguiser.

That Lord of Chaos role has a mechanic that promotes another mafia to get their role powers when they die.

I also think 3p is unlikely given how weak the town seems.

Oh, I misread the the Lord of Chaos works