A-Random wrote:
I didnt look at fiona cus I was tunneling magic. I ignored everyone by that logic
I had permission. So yes at least I was the only player who asked to do it and was told yes. Shove that integrity shit up your ass
Why did you choose to tunnel over interacting with a CC situation?
I have plans tonight, so I have roughly 2-3 hours to make my decision.
A-Random wrote:
Im aware but mafia knows this
Just asked mag but my assumption is they weren't told the role of Julian which has them debating if they fake claim it or if they get cced.
Which is why he's probing. Hes wanting brand to claim jailor
I already said earlier in the day that Mag confirmed they did not receive the sanitized role information.
It gets another confirmed town. In a 6 player pool with 2 scum 4 town having two confirmed town suffocated the mafia out of a win. In this case mafia have only two unconfirmed people to try and ML. This is why Random is keeping you in his poe.
In addition if the jailer claims and their target confirms them then that person is almost always a lock town.
Sure, but you already thought Random was jailor. Why did you need him to say it to everyone else?
At this point everyone claimed VT. If anyone at this point claimed any form of PR then I would seriously doubt it.
At this point, yes. That's the thing about day phases. They are temporal. They develop over time. At the beginning of the DP, a jailor claim would not have been absurd. Just because it looks so now, doesn't mean there wasn't a valid strategy to set up for it before.
It gets another confirmed town. In a 6 player pool with 2 scum 4 town having two confirmed town suffocated the mafia out of a win. In this case mafia have only two unconfirmed people to try and ML. This is why Random is keeping you in his poe.
In addition if the jailer claims and their target confirms them then that person is almost always a lock town.
Sure, but you already thought Random was jailor. Why did you need him to say it to everyone else?
At this point everyone claimed VT. If anyone at this point claimed any form of PR then I would seriously doubt it.
At this point, yes. That's the thing about day phases. They are temporal. They develop over time. At the beginning of the DP, a jailor claim would not have been absurd. Just because it looks so now, doesn't mean there wasn't a valid strategy to set up for it before.
A-Random wrote:
Still could be a jailor claiming vt which in retrospect is smart given how scummy caine is. Him probing on this is scummy as fuck
That's the quiet part we don't say out loud. Still, enough people have claimed not to have been jailed that mafia might be deterred from fake claiming.
A-Llewella wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
I'm not sure why Gerard was so ready to townread Random beyond just knowing who this player is and how they generally act behaviorally. I don't mind that they went on a tangent so much (if anything, I kind of townread them for going after a mislynch that was never going to happen, doesn't line up with scum tactics I've seen before), but there was scant little focus on Fiona and it was just an acknowledgement of the CC as the target of the lynch last DP. I can't tell if that's just him trying to steer clear of saying much about it or being resigned to not being able to convince us on Oberon.
The narrative I am chewing on is a world where a s!Random as a wolf sees a team mate going down. They are uncomfortable interacting with other wolves (as many wolves are) so they just avoid it but need something to focus on. They end up landing on a weird push that makes little sense as they miscalculate the level of certainty to convey (which wolves do) as they avoid addressing their team mate going down. Then last moment they slap on a vote so they will look correct when people just look at raw wagon votes.
I could be very off base. But its what was in my head reading through D2 while focusing on what their mindset could be which is why I want to hear from you and Caine about it.
The thing that the Oberon push has me thinking about is. if mafia was going for a mislynch, they would be better off with any other target because it would end the game. But the fact that they get the kill back if Oberon is lynched is a big point. If we lynch Oberon DP2 then it's 4v3 today, and even if we lynch Fiona next DP, if they can get a blackmail kill + NK, game over.
A-Caine wrote:
Yeah This is why I think the jailor should out themselves.
I have a very strong jailor read on a particular player but don’t want to say who or why yet
I still can't wrap my head around this coming from t!Caine. If you feel you know who the jailor is, why do you think they should out themselves? What's the town logic? Scum logic is more apparent. You try to get a real jailor to out if they are alive, but if they aren't, you are already setting yourself up to give credibility to the jailor fake claim. If we mislynch we lose, so mafia can go all in working together to verify a jailor fake claim this DP.
I would love reads from Brand.
That part. Caine is trying very hard to confuse the order of events between D2 and D3 to retroactively apply their D3 stances to D2.
A-Deirdre wrote:
I'd say it's obvious by now, yes.
Yes, but there's more nuance. I think by the beginning of D3 in particular they had enough reason to believe that the jailor was dead to consider setting up for a jailor fake claim.
Right now Llewella is my strongest independent town read and weakest pairing. Random is my strongest independent scum read. I need to look back over some of the wagons to decide whether Brand or Random makes more since as a partner, but right now I'm thinking it's Random.
I'm having a hard time not reading Caine as Mafia at this point. The question is, who do we think is the best pairing?
I've been assuming that scum either didn't know they'd killed the Jailor or believed there was another PR in the game. I know I'd be paranoid about people hiding PRs behind VT claims if I was in their shoes.
I've been working with the belief that they didn't originally know if they killed the jailor, but by DP3 they realized they probably have.
I obviously wouldn’t have outright claimed that D2. But look at my attitude and behavior around him. I was following him as I thought he was a TPR.
Where. Show me where you did this.
Anyway the entirety of the transition on random D2 from Caine is 33 to 248.
Random went from null to town and the justification was the that Mafia wouldn't push a blackmail target. That is the same push Caine says this DP that mafia would make to protect a teammate.
Keep in mind that over the same period Gerard became a scum read for Caine. It seems to me they began to read Gerard as jailor and that's why Gerard died. The question becomes, do they hint that Random is jailor DP3 because they believe it (indicating that Random is town), or because at this point they think the Jailor is dead. Caine was really big on trying to get the Jailor to out early in the DP, which is very weird if they already think they know who the jailor is. It looks to me like they were trying to test the waters for a fake claim, and then I came in and ruined it by pointing out the jailor is probably already dead.
Interesting.
Can you remind me where in D2 you had Random as Jailor?
A-Deirdre wrote:
This doesn't make sense. First off, you could've just been lying about your read on Random as a plausible Jailor. Second, since it's basically been proven at this point that Julian was the Jailor, saying that you as scum would have continued to read Random that way is meaningless since you had information on his flip by the point that Gerard was NK'd. Even if scum weren't given that information, Gerard might have looked like a plausible Jailor before he was NK'd, hence why he was killed before me.
I actually believe that Mafia was considering that jailor could be alive. I do believe that's why you didn't die. That doesn't vindicate Caine however, as the Random = Jailor could be a pivot driven by either (1) Gerard being VT, or (2) Mafia deciding jailor is dead and considering a fake claim setup. I do think mafia would be interested in identifying the jailor more than town would.
A-Caine wrote:
A-Bleys wrote:
You don't get to decide who you are paired with, in my eyes, unfortunately. I see you being paired with both as real possibilities. Gerard even called out you being paired with Fiona in his will.
If I was mafia I’d always kill random over Gerard via my jailor read on them.
So the thing is, I think it's clear enough mafia was PR hunting with the Julian kill. Mafia doesn't know the sanitized role, but they certainly made the kill hoping it was a PR. Flora's will also indicates to me, at least, that Julian could be jailor. So while you could be hedging bets that Random is jailor, you could also be SvS setting up for scum to claim jailor, and then you two got cold feet later.
You don't get to decide who you are paired with, in my eyes, unfortunately. I see you being paired with both as real possibilities. Gerard even called out you being paired with Fiona in his will.
I'm still convinced it's Caine + Random. Caine + Llewella are completely disconnected imo. I think to a degree Random + Llewella are as well. To a smaller degree I think Brand + Llewella are unlikely, but that's the only realistic partner I see for Llewella. Between genuinely town reading them, and not seeing a viable partner, I'm fine openly discussing strategy with Llewella as if they are townlock.
229 is very sus from Caine.
VTL: A-Oberon
If this is town and they really are blackmailed then Ramon is 100% clear. There is a 0% chance scum tries and lynches the person they blame mailed.
Gerard is major sus for protecting them
Emphasis on them saying that there's 0% chance Random tries to lynch their blackmail target while then saying this DP what they did in #212. Either there is no reason for scum to lynch the blackmail target, or there is. You can't flip flop when it's convenient.
273 and 276 from Brand are a good look. There is no reason to go out of their way to dismiss pressure off an easy mislynch slot in order to refocus on Fiona.
295 And this post from Random makes me think the Oberon push could be theater.
Actually thats wrong. Mafia would be motivated not to lynch Oberon.
Caine is prob a town lock and stupid
299 There is something about the casual assumption from Brand that Fiona is the lynch that strikes me as town. It's far too comfortable an energy to be coming from mafia. There's not even an effort to to build a case towards someone else to save Fiona. Nor is there an effort to build a case against Fiona to gain towncred when they flip scum.
497 I don't like this from Caine. It's a vague feeling, but it strikes me as digging for info for setting up gamestate via the NK after Fiona dies. Then in 502 and 504 he's already setting up the mislynch for next DP.
To conclude the DP, I don't like 550 and 552. If Fiona's jester, mafia wins after the NK. Caine already assumes the game continues, implying they know Fiona is scum and not jester.
A-Deirdre wrote:
Honestly, I'm thinking I'll sleep on it. Been a long enough day already. I don't think Caine vs. Random is a TvT situation. For reasons I won't say, I don't think it's mutual bussing, either, so it's likely only one of them is scum. We've got a little over 24 hours left to figure this out, and I'd rather have everyone chime in at this point.
Given that we already have two votes up, one for each of them, I ask that everyone else please recognize that an additional vote puts either of them at L-2, affording scum an opportunity to get a quick lynch if the vote is on town. Please don't place a vote on either of them, even if you feel confident, before we get a chance to hash this out.
I'm in the middle of finishing my DP2 read and I've got my comments in the works on another tab. I'm looking at Random/Caine being SvS as a real possibility. I think it's important to discuss why you don't believe it is a mutual bussing.
A-Llewella wrote:
I can expand on that if you would like. I am of sober mind now : )
I'm more focused on the necessity of jailor/regent both being in the game to balance the setup than why they shouldn't claim.
May you respond to #208 when you get the chance?
I'm awake.
Clocking into work now. I'm off tomorrow and can finish then.
In the 220s my question is, if Random blackmailed Oberon, he would know the condition tied to the blackmail and he would know if it was broken already. Why would he push to lynch someone who he knows will die?
