A-Llewella

I would say more, but I think you are right there is one. If I explained how a detail about it I would just be handing mafia a play book on what to do at that point which is why I just need to shut up >.<

A-Deirdre wrote:

If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role

So that's assuming we have an investigative role. If there is Trump Master in play and we're talking about everyone claiming today, then we can revisit this idea after they claim.

If they existed I do not know why they would not have outed D2. I could see withholding the role result they got but flatly claiming they used their 1 shot and X player is town would be the obvious play.

I would be very suspicious of such a claim today and would demand some wild seeding to buy it.

Im fine with waiting 24 hours or going now. I do feel they should out before the end of the day.

Also will say now tommorow I have a friends birthday party and Saturday taking my mom out for Mothers Day. Expect chunks of time where I will be ignoring the game. (Saying it now so people dont view my absence as game related)

I feel like I should say less. At this point I am borderline coaching the mafia on things they may not figure out. Was about to say something else.

A-Deirdre wrote:

Jailor must out their target.

Yeah, I 100% think that before hammer Jailor should out a target.

Question: why?

We know scum have no roles to interfere with wills at this point. Why not have the Jailor leave their target in their will? Worst case scenario, they die and reveal their target. Best case, they survive and tell us.

Valid, but what is the advantage?

True but its not great in the situation.

Today 4 town 2 mafia

We hit a scum, then its 4v1 going into the night with 2 town confirmed

-If they no kill

4v1 D4 in a 3p PoE with 2 confirmed town

If they get the misslynch, then they kill 1 confirmed town that night making it 2v1 D5

Now they get a D5 with a town kingmaker in a 50/50 having to convince 2 players

-If they kill

3v1 D4 in a 3p PoE with 1 confirmed town

They get the misslynch, then they kill anyone for the win that night

The functional difference is if they want to fight 2 days or 1 given them not killing just makes it more of a fight. And if they are roleblocked they die anyways.

In either situation we always eleminate whoever the Jailor said they would role block and just thank the scum for giving town a confirmed kingmaker.

If that makes sense

Yeah, I 100% think that before hammer Jailor should out a target. As I said before if they die as we eleminate a mafia it will clear a player for the next day. Our jailor will function as an invest even if they die and Mafia will be obligated to kill them or Dierdre by default.

I suppose I explained poorly when I revealed.

Unless the scum team was exactly Caine and Random + the scum team both decided to remove any chance of counter claiming for zero reason then at best there is 1 scum between them. I town read Caine and scum read Random placing 1 of 2 scum between Belys and Brand essentially killing cover. Would also allow the Mafia to select 1 of 2 slots to pool their votes on to target down the Jailor and remove their cover.

I just figure there is zero reason in not mass claiming now though. I have 2 more thoughts I will unpack after everyone has claimed and push for a solve for one of them.

A-Bleys wrote:

I am in the process of reading through the game. There are 1700 hundred posts to get through. I've been in the game from about an hour and a half. I have to read the game before I can comment on the game. You all are very close to having me replace out and letting you deal with the inactive slot. I'm doing the game a favor joining in and committing the vast majority of my day to catching up. You all need to stop demanding more from me faster. Give me the time to read. Thank you.

I appreciate you joining and taking the time. Sorry if you feel rushed. Tons of time left in the day and I understand disliking any sort of urgency in this situation. Part of it comes from your prior slot and all that.

Also why I picked the limitation I did. My character is aloof and distantly engauged. Seemed fitting.

That and I had hoped to bait a lost wolf or PR assumption from wolves. Failed that piece right now

I am rather unhappy to say this but Jailor may as well claim now. With 2 people outing themselves randomly that means all 3 remaining have a 50/50 of who the jailor is. We pretty much killed the jailors cover.

Back to the earlier logic, a claim from them does have its value. Scum will be forced to fight another 50/50 or deal with a smaller PoE. And if they jail right they can save their own life.

There is one other piece I will wait to say until after things play out but I really see withholding the claim pretty pointless now.

I am a "Prince of Amber"

D1 post #375 is where I seeded to reference later saying

I identify as they/them. Please respect my pronoun.

The part I snickered at was that it was my role and flavor. My response to my role reveal being along the lines of "Oh, Given my character is clearly a woman but I am a prince means I gotta identify as for RP"

Fair.

We could ask. May also give scum WIFOM on how the jailor will target though which could be critical. I have some specific thoughts I am not voicing right now because they will very much potentially matter later.

I am just paranoid right now and very tired.

A-Bleys wrote:

We actually may not have a confirmable town. Do we know of anyone being jailed after the redacted flip?

A-Llewella wrote:

Rough hard mech points:

Illusionist hides the role flip and Last will (Last will is a mechanic of submitting a post to the host that will be revealed upon your death) This happened N1 so we know they exist in game

Blackmailer we know to exist because it killed Oberon D2

Lord of Evil / Godfather we know to exist because we eliminated them D2

Godfather has a mechanic where another mafia becomes their role after they die. It also has a mechanic that it gets a shot of the killing function if in Lylo. (In this case that killing function is the blackmailer)

We know the Jailor exists because they killed N1. The last will of the player made it clear they were jailed and thought the jailor was town.

Jailor does have a Mafia type which is Integrator. The game would be over right now if it was 3 town vs 3 mafia right now so jailor must be town

A-Deirdre's post #45 responding to you also explained. Getting strong vibes that your pretending to interact right now and asking questions for show.

A-Bleys wrote:

Am I correct in believing that the Lord of Chaos could not have body swapped yet as there would be a Lord of Chaos flip at night?

There is no Mafia Disguiser.

That Lord of Chaos role has a mechanic that promotes another mafia to get their role powers when they die.

I also think 3p is unlikely given how weak the town seems.

A-Bleys wrote:

Okay, I believe I understand. Illusionist and Blackmailer are mechanically confirmed, which eliminates Interrogator as a possibility. Therefore we have 1 confirmed town in the regent, 1 confirmable town in the jailer, and 2 mafia among the final 4.

Correct

Only really strong interaction I saw between one of the final 4 and the flipped scum was Caine shoving Fiona pretty strongly D2. They were even pushing the slot prior to the Claim situation.

A-Deirdre wrote:

I'm not sure why Gerard was so ready to townread Random beyond just knowing who this player is and how they generally act behaviorally. I don't mind that they went on a tangent so much (if anything, I kind of townread them for going after a mislynch that was never going to happen, doesn't line up with scum tactics I've seen before), but there was scant little focus on Fiona and it was just an acknowledgement of the CC as the target of the lynch last DP. I can't tell if that's just him trying to steer clear of saying much about it or being resigned to not being able to convince us on Oberon.

The narrative I am chewing on is a world where a s!Random as a wolf sees a team mate going down. They are uncomfortable interacting with other wolves (as many wolves are) so they just avoid it but need something to focus on. They end up landing on a weird push that makes little sense as they miscalculate the level of certainty to convey (which wolves do) as they avoid addressing their team mate going down. Then last moment they slap on a vote so they will look correct when people just look at raw wagon votes.

I could be very off base. But its what was in my head reading through D2 while focusing on what their mindset could be which is why I want to hear from you and Caine about it.

A-Bleys wrote:

If what you say is true, then the murderers are Brand and Random.

Can you further elaborate on the mechanical details of the game and current situation?

Doth thy maiden not understand how unproductive a question she asks of me? In a world in which the murderers are two of three between me and precisely two others, when is my answer ever not to be "thee"?

Interesting. I town read Cain and I know I am town. Neither of us are any sort of mech confirmed. Last page I explained my Cain read for you to understand why I am excluding them. Unless something changes I am confident enough in that read to run with it today.

Rough hard mech points:

1. Illusionist hides the role flip and Last will (Last will is a mechanic of submitting a post to the host that will be revealed upon your death) This happened N1 so we know they exist in game
2. Blackmailer we know to exist because it killed Oberon D2
3. Lord of Evil / Godfather we know to exist because we eliminated them D2
4. Godfather has a mechanic where another mafia becomes their role after they die. It also has a mechanic that it gets a shot of the killing function if in Lylo. (In this case that killing function is the blackmailer)
5. We know the Jailor exists because they killed N1. The last will of the player made it clear they were jailed and thought the jailor was town.
6. Jailor does have a Mafia type which is Integrator. The game would be over right now if it was 3 town vs 3 mafia right now so jailor must be town

Welcome-

Quick TLDR:

Deirde is confirmed town Regient. We have a town Jailor who is not outed.

The Mafia team is exactly a Blackmailer and an Illusionist. Both of which have used their functions right now. Blackmailer function may or may not come back depending on some mechanics. Later today I intend to play 50 questions with the host and really wrap my mind around it..

I would love to hear your reads. Right now from where I am sitting there is 2 scum between you, Brand, and Random.

The advantage I see is that it strongly inhibits a Jailor counter claim and tightens the PoE.

The disadvantage is it removes one of our only outs if we misslynch and limits our options.

I am also interested in hearing both of your thoughts on my reads. Particularly I would like to see what you guys think about what I said about Random. Other people can do as they want with my Caine read.

A-Caine wrote:

This is also worth noting

Description: You are a noble Amberite in charge of a wing of the castle dungeon, discreetly detaining suspects and gathering information on behalf of the Crown.

Ability: Pick a target during the DAY to jail. They will be removed from all chats for that night, be roleblocked, and become immune to all night attacks. You gain a one-night anonymous night chat with your captive.

Once per game, you may optionally execute your captive, killing them.

Jailing is a perfect roleblock, meaning that it roleblocks roles that are normally immune to roleblock.

If a mafia member is jailed then the team will know and the one who isn’t jailed can just submit the NK. Ergo town has no way of stopping the NK

I disagree. I think it simply means jailor will want to submit their jail action prior to the hammer.

Common tactic used to shelter N0 alignment cop peeks is for each player to give a fake N0 peek so post flip town knows it for certian. We could have every player roger up prior to hammer to enable this with everyone understanding who the hammer will be on.

I believe if not claimed or not Jailor should not hard declare their target. Let scum be forced to WIFOM out who is the target to allow for potential of mafia hitting a protected.

If Jailor has claimed they should reveal given they will be the kill, but the following day town will know who was role blocked that night (of value if there is only 1 mafia left)

A-Deirdre wrote:

I flagged that Lord of Chaos mechanic earlier, but I don’t understand how it’s still in play or why specifically killing the Illusionist results in the Blackmailer getting an extra charge. My reading of the role is that you have to be the Lord of Chaos and the last scum left alive to get the charge. This would satisfy neither of those requirements unless the Blackmailer somehow inherits the Lord of Chaos role. If I missed something about that, please point it out.

I’ll look through your reads later.

The way I am reading it is that the GodFather mechanic gets passed on.

'if' there are 3 mafia

GF dies D2. One of the two remaining becomes GF. No big deal

Today we have Blackmailer + Illusionist, eliminating specifically Illusionist promotes Blackmailer to GF.

The Blackmailer getting +1 charge of Blackmail/Kill is something to keep in mind. Thats the potential

I could be reading this wrong. A lot of things going on there at once. But I figured its worth putting it in everyones minds and openly talking about now for a few reasons.

For giggles my desguiser code boiled down to the previous prime numbers with 25 thrown in the middle slapped into letters. Starting from M letters moved forward. so 1 was N 2 was O, 3 was P etc. Then for every 2nd letter starting from N 1 was m, 2 was l, 3 was k.

Kinda half assed it but figured it would break the AI cheating jackasses and was stupid enough nobody would even try to break my code and disguise as me (while still staying hand solvable)

Will consider later if I want to bother making one today for 3p paranoia but I am thinking no..

So if Illusionist flips expect someone to be blackmailed tomorrow. If thats you be absurdly careful following the conditions. This is my easiest break for the blackmailed person looking at the BM role conditions-

4- You cannot disable a player’s ability to vote. You may, however, ask them not to vote for a specific player (this is disabled at MyLo/LyLo).

This means the blackmailed person must say whatever but their vote may look different. The vote can not be obligated. So if you see someone shoving a player and awkwardly voting elsewhere there is your loophole.

And if your not blackmailed be careful vetting a suspected person. Forcing them to say too much could get them killed.

Oh, Another subject I rambled about in my last will was the Godfather/Lord of Chaos role. Important thing some probably overlooked but we should talk about-

Lord of Chaos

Description: You are a senior lord of Chaos, supervising the Chaosite incursion into the Kingdom of Amber.

Ability: You have the final say on the Mafia night actions.

Special Mechanics: When you are the last Mafia left alive, you inherit the killing ability along with one charge of whatever Mafia Killing role was alive at the start of the game. This modifier will be transferred to a random living Mafia if you die.

Other: There can never be more than one Lord of Chaos at any one time.

So Blackmailer is listed as Killing. This means if we flip the Illusionist today the Blackmailer becomes GF, Gets a night kill and a Blackmail charge they can use in the same night. Huge implications for tomorrow everyone should keep in mind. If this is forgotten by the town it could cost the game.

Randoms D2 looked bad to me. Their hard focus on Oberon D2 after they claimed to be killed was very odd. The initial reaction I can understand but the way they doubled down on that position felt contrived. 3 specific issues-

1- They voiced it with hardline 3p focus in a game state it was being repeated that we specifically needed to hit mafia. This lines up with a mafia mindset

2- They voiced unreasonable certainty that does not track with their reasoning saying things like "If we leave his fucker alive. I would bet my left nut hes going to hijack an account." Could be their natural hyperbole? Could also be a scum messing up how to align his conveyed certainty with faked reasoning

3- They absolutely avoided the shit out of touching the Fiona situation. I get having focus elsewhere but never touching the major day subject while hard focusing on such a random tangent? This is the most concerning thing to me. Looks like a wolf who is frozen and does not know how to deal with a team mate going down so they say nothing then just slap on a vote when its clear they are cooked for the post flip optics.

Brand is still pretty null

I did note D1 #1024 from Fiona digging through the flipped scum

We have less than 1 hour. I do not think the lynch will be anything but Flora or Brand. just Relax

Probably the most potentially AI post out of Fiona I grabbed skimming their ISO. This was as Fiona did shift from not voting to voting Flora so potential of distancing there. They also never shoved Brand, just took a soft stance.

Something I noted people may want to glance at and get their feelings on.

I agree with holding off on votes. Digging last night Cain was actually a decent town lean for me from the Fiona train / D2

They were the first to push consideration on if we were in Mylo and such. They were shoving Fiona prior to the claim situation and then they hard shoved Fiona throughout the day. I think its unlikely they are Mafia bussing especially given Fiona was not pushing back on them as I typically see with theater. Fiona was appealing to them which comes more from a wolf trying to placate a town.

If Oberon was not self resolving I would be pushing so hard to eliminate them right now. Lol

We straight up need a mafia kill today. 3p should be ignored. It needs to be exactly and absolutely a mafia kill

A-Caine wrote:

9 players

6 town 2 scum 1 jester

we kill the jester today and blackmail dies

5 town v 2 scum

night kill goes through

4 town v 2 scum

tomorrow js LyLo

why would you assume 2 scum?