Casey_Risk

So, right now it's between Bullish and Mikal for me. I feel pretty good about Luna being town tbh, and if I'm right about that, one of those two has to be scum. I guess both technically could be scum but I kinda doubt it. Anyway, I'm leaning towards Bullish and after an ISO of him, this post (DP1#382) stands out to me:

This is classic mafia theory, I've typed this out before but it looks like google did not index it.

mass char claim makes sense if 2 of the 3 are true:

chars are not closely linked to roles

char pool is limited, so CCs are possible

there is a clear theme split

In our case 1 is true, 2 and 3 are half true. So I'm not opposed to a mass char claim, but I won't advocate for it very hard either.

I hate this post. 2 is not "half-true"; there are well over a hundred named elements on the periodic table that could potentially be claimed! It's weird to claim that 3 is half-true as well, given that we don't know the theme split and we certainly don't know if it's clear. Plus, theme splits in Pie's games are often very subtle and non-obvious. I see no reason to assume this game would be different.

And saying "not opposed to a mass claim, not necessarily for it" feels very scummy to me after the last game, where Thoth was advocating for one and got sussed and almost lynched over it. This post is just very bad and I hate it.

Thoth wrote:

Lunatic wrote:

I have a book of justification, but the gist of it is what I said. Want me to copy past it in AI and translate it or something?

The day 1 OP says not to do this

Yeah this will probably get you modkilled, don't do it

I'm really struggling to see your point on Lunatic.

If he's scum, then it's really odd that he derailed the wagon against me. What's so hard to understand about that?

Its just odd you immediately accuse me of lying, it is almost hostile

You said this:

I honestly find it hard to believe we went from Lunatic Koolaid maning into the thread hours before DP1 ending saying Magoroth is totally scum and strong arming us into lynching him to Lunatic saying Casey is a little sus

Then I pointed out that Luna thinks I'm the least sus person in the group of four (me + my dream) other than himself, and you then say:

Now, DP2 Lunatic points out how its odd there is three investigatives and then drops it after. You are investigative. Thats why I pointed to you, you fall in that group.

But he never said I was sus! That's what I'm calling a lie.

Mikal wrote:

If there are 4 scum we are cooked lol

I don't buy that there's 4 scum at all tbh

Shining wrote:

How do you read Lunatic's post 144 then?

Missed that one when doing a quick ISO. But did he ever say that he town reads either Rex or Bullish?

Bullish wrote:

caseyyyyyy why are you doing this to yourself. What version of scum me puts myself on the chopping block when I can just go along with mikal's plan and lynch you? I'm gonna be making the exact same arguments next DP except with a dead dreamer.

What the hell is this whining? I don't think I've ever seen you act like this before, and it's not helping your case.

What are your thoughts on Shining? Surely I can't be the only one who sees that he's blatantly lying, right?

Mikal wrote:

Your role works exactly as you said correct. If you come back and say something diff. It fucks this up horribly.

As I said earlier, my role does have a very minor variation. I don't want to say exactly what it is yet, but it may, in fact, make your mechanical solve not quite work

Shining wrote:

Luna voted Rex DP1 but then immediately pivoted to Mago and forced a Mago lynch. Now, DP2 Lunatic points out how its odd there is three investigatives and then drops it after. You are investigative. Thats why I pointed to you, you fall in that group. Hes sus as shit

Incorrect on multiple counts. Luna did not make a point about three investigatives being strange, and he's been consistent about sussing both Bullish and Mikal, but Mikal more. And you specifically said that Luna said that I am sus, which is really inaccurate. Out of me, Bullish, and Mikal, Luna has been consistent about sussing me the least. Why are you lying?

Mikal wrote:

I agree. Its weird as fuck

Just more like. Shinning does dumb shit in every game. Him and kohai are bitches to read

The behavior in general is scummy

Coming from him its nai

Its like when kohai says retarded shit that's stupid. He does it as town and scum

Not saying hes not. Just that there are some people that post very little and are just mislynch prone lol

I agree that Shining often does stuff that can be read as scummy in general coming from other people, but that doesn't make him unreadable.

People that dont post coast. Down to a few hours so need to land on something. I wish people could see the utility in you but dont think its happening so staying bullish. Id shot bullish over luna anytime. I think there is a world wher3 luna is scum but just dont see his claim being something a scum luna does

I can get on board with a Bullish lynch. Still hate Shining's recent posts tho

Above post was very weird but its nai.

What makes you so sure? To me, it feels like an opportunistic scum move, trying to get momentum on a wagon after Rex started it.

Does anyone here have any reason to TR Shining?

Whats yours like? Mine at least draws from the chemistry.

#122

Also, I get that hes not sussing you directly, but I am just having problems with his mindset this game. I'll ISO his DP1.

I'm only responding to what you actually said, and what you said didn't make much sense. Now you point to vague "mindset" stuff without specifics and say you're going to ISO him. Okay...

Shining wrote:

Okay, so still not liking Lunatic. I honestly find it hard to believe we went from Lunatic Koolaid maning into the thread hours before DP1 ending saying Magoroth is totally scum and strong arming us into lynching him to Lunatic saying Casey is a little sus. His claim seems off to me as well. My PM is more justified than "lol Krypton means hidden".

This feels weak to me. He hasn't written off the possibility that I'm scum, as he shouldn't if he's town, but I'm definitely not the focus of his posts here, so it's weird to describe him as saying that "Casey is a little sus." Where did that framing come from?

Also, there's almost always one or two weaker justifications in any game. They can't all be perfect. I've definitely seen weaker justifications, even from Pie.

Seriously though I am so stuck on this. I really want to townread Casey, but she's so good as scum and she's fooled me before.

I appreciate the compliment, but I am NOT good as scum 💀

More to the point, I've been thinking this game over, and the more I think about it, the harder I find it to scumread Luna here. He derailed my lynch which would make little sense if he was scum, and nothing in particular about his behavior this DP stands out to me as scummy. I like the way he's been analyzing results.

That leaves me with Bullish/Mikal by PoE, and honestly? I'm leaning Bullish here. His strong defensiveness and argumentative behavior feels very different from what I expect from him. I normally expect Bullish to just respond to an argument and then be like, "whatever. I said my peace, if you want to disagree with me you're allowed to be dumb." I do have a kind of conspiracy theory of my own here involving Shining and/or Magic as his partner. Magic was also in CoD Black Ops Mafia and was the Mind Controller. NP1 he mind controlled Shining and learned he was the Time Traveler. I can definitely see him of all people remembering that role and suggesting it to Bullish here. Magic is very attentive like that. (BTW Magic, if I am right about this, I'm sorry you rolled scum three times in a row. That sucks).

Idk, I might be wrong here, but my gut is telling me the solution is among (Bullish, Banana, Shining, Magic). Of course, this theory is all contingent on Bullish actually being scum, and I'm not 100% on that. But I do feel like he might be the most likely to be scum in my dream, which makes me want to vote for him here.

Helz wrote:

Casey_Risk wrote:

Honestly, I was pretty surprised that I got a dream. I was expecting that someone would likely investigate me.

This is an odd assumption. As an invest you assumed you would be investigated... Is there something in your role that declares you being investigated changes things? What made you think there would be multiple investigators?

It would be like if I assumed as a protective I would get protected. That strikes me as a strange conclusion thats out of place from an uninformed town mindset.

To be honest, I didn't actually consider the possibility of me being the only informational role. I was expecting this game to be more like the one's I'm used to in this community's meta (which has been true so far), and a thirteen player Pie game with the only informational role being my own would be surprising to me, especially considering the somewhat luck-based nature of my role. I realize that I haven't explained it since I think everyone else is already familiar with it, but I'm a Dreamer. If no one visits me at night, I receive a dream containing three randomly chosen players, at least one of whom is mafia. But if anyone visits me, regardless of what their action is, I don't dream.

You've been quiet this DP. Do you have anything thoughts that don't involve you being sus of Mikal?

Thoth wrote:

Again, I would like to ask everyone: Imagine that any of the three people in the Dreamer PoE were lynched. Imagine that they flip town or scum. That's six possibilities. How would each of those affect your view of the game?

Interesting question. I did see your earlier version of it, though I believe that one asked how it would affect my view of my Dreamer claim, which I obviously didn't see value in responding to. While I don't think any teams of two players in my dream impossible necessarily, I think it's likely that there's only one scum in my dream, so anyone flipping scum means the other two are probably clear.

Regarding Bullish specifically, if he flipped scum, I would have to wonder about what gave him the idea for that claim. He could be lying about just not remembering it, of course, but other than me apparently, I think the person most likely to remember that role would be the one who actually had it - Earth himself (Shining). So I think Bullish flipping scum would implicate Shining, and Banana as well for how she's agreed with Bullish this DP.

About to drive home, will share more thoughts later.

Bullish wrote:

Vote mikal, if I flip town he's going to be tunneling you tomorrow, you got no reason to vote me

We're not in a rush here, are we? We still have plenty of time before the day ends and no one is at L-2 yet from what I can see. I want to do some close reading of the game so far before EoD if possible. Truth be told, I never fully caught up on DP1

Btw I'm trying to keep up with this game while at work but my mobile data is being very wonky today for some reason. Doing my best to keep up regardless

I would like them to stay as an option. Out of everything Im really stuck on Casey/Bullish. 3 Invests looks like too much to me

I'm not completely sold on Bullish being town or anything, but I don't know why so many people here think this is so unlikely. CoD Black Ops Mafia, one of Pie's previous games, had three town investigatives, and one of them was a time traveler. It's very conceivable to me that all three are in the game

Pretty sure casey is a they/them or a female btw

It's the first of these

Also casey taking the risk of claiming dreamer right off the bat when she was the number one other major wagon is another thing to factor in. Me risking it was still risky in Russia mafia just because I am an active player and a likely visit, but her claiming it as scum would be basically throwing, she should have assumed as scum someone would have visited her. Extreme amounts of risk for for extreme amounts of reward, but that reward isn't paying off since shes still being talked about being lynched.

Honestly, I was pretty surprised that I got a dream. I was expecting that someone would likely investigate me.

Thoth wrote:

Casey_Risk wrote:

See, this is the sort of super specific, highly technical stuff I see in my own role and the flips we have already. Gives me good vibes.

I'm guessing that scum have similarly technical stuff in their role cards and that scum will design their fake-claims accordingly.

Of course. The problem is being able to come up with a good fake justification in the first place. That's not easy in a game like this one. That's my point

Bullish wrote:

Casey_Risk wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

As for the three investigatives, it's possible to have three because we in a 13 player game.

That being said, the time traveling motion detector and the tracker could clash a little. Possibly, will need to check some past games bc I swear I remember someone made a setup with both.

Again, it was Black Ops Mafia

https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12646-call-of-duty-black-ops-mafia-endgame

bro I don't even remember playing that game, and you remember there's a time traveller in it?

Also wow look at that, 3 investigative roles in that game, even though it only has 9 players.

The funny bit is that I actually dropped out of that game super early, yet somehow I still remembered the time traveler thing. I guess it just stuck out to me. Unusual roles usually do.

whiteflame wrote:

Worthwhile to add my name to the justification tracker.

Long story short, it focuses on the electron configuration and magnetic dipoles, though the key sentences focus on how its unquenchable magnetism leads to anisotropy. In plain language, that means it channels things along specific paths, focusing their direction. So yeah, surprise surprise, it's property for me.

See, this is the sort of super specific, highly technical stuff I see in my own role and the flips we have already. Gives me good vibes. Though it is still very strange that Rex saw you visit Shining.

Mikal wrote:

Luna looks weird to u that is. I cant see a scum luna claiming that

I mean, I kind of get what you're saying, it's not the sort of fakeclaim I'd expect from scum Luna. On the other hand, it doesn't strike me as a particularly towny claim either, and this seems like the sort of game where it'd be difficult to come up with a good fakeclaim, at least if you don't know chemistry on a deep level like Pie does. I know I'd be struggling if I was scum rn. Something a bit more superficial like a name-based role is what I'd expect from scum this game.

The behavior-based arguments in favor of Luna are the stronger ones imo. I don't know why he'd try to derail my lynch as scum.

Mikal wrote:

Guaranteed at least one, possibly more than one. Obviously it's highly unlikely that I happened to get three scum in my dream, but two is a possibility. Right now, I'm leaning towards either Luna or Bullish, slight possibility of both

This is what i was referring to. Thid is basically a scum read or I read it as such.

Okay. I never singled out Bullish in particular tho

Mag1cman wrote:

As for the three investigatives, it's possible to have three because we in a 13 player game.

That being said, the time traveling motion detector and the tracker could clash a little. Possibly, will need to check some past games bc I swear I remember someone made a setup with both.

Again, it was Black Ops Mafia

https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12646-call-of-duty-black-ops-mafia-endgame

Also, I never said that I scumread Bullish? I just said that I was leaning towards the solution to my dream being either him or Luna, possibly both

Mag1cman wrote:

Lunatic is definitely the odd man out. Keep in mind that scum Lunatic haslittle reason to shift the wagon away from town Casey. Yes some WIFOM is possible, but just not as likely.

Yeah, that's the part that doesn't make sense to me in a s!Luna world