ILikePie5

Town:

Pie - Obvious

Ragnar - Behaviorally I see him as town. As scum he tends to lurk a lot more.

Casey - I actually like the analysis of the Janitor. In a Mason game I don’t see how scum would risk using a Janitor on Lunatic. I don’t remember if RT confirmed he was in the PM with him DP1, but there were so many others. Giving scum a pure janitor in this set up just seems insanely weak.

Mharman - I think the analysis with the Janitor is accurate even though the assumption itself may not be accurate. I also stand by my read of him in DP1. On the reread, I don’t see anything.

REF - After talking to him in my PM, his behavior is very townie to me.

Tilt Town:

Whiteflame - I can never read him, my read will prob depend on his claims. At the same time, he’s less likely to be scum based on my theory. Ofc as a lot of people pointed out, if they figured out the idea beforehand, it’s a WIFOM argument.

Null:

Vader - There’s not much to go off with Vader. Theres no SupaSlip yet, but that’s cause he avoided a PM. And I think that’s telling tbh. It’s a way to avoid my theory and makes it less likely he slips in PM. But I don’t have evidence to gonna put him as null for now.

Scum:

Earth - I dislike the position of list idea still. It’s so hard with Earth cause he’s always just scummy so idk if he’s actually scum. Theres not much to analyze tbh except that. Theres also the POE component to this.

Theist - Everything about him just sounds scummy to me. Whether it be ending the DP early based on Lunatic (he still hasn’t explained why he townread Lunatic). The claim and role don’t make much sense together especially when Super Mario Bros is in contention. The sense of urgency isn’t there either. With the talk of a potential TP Survivor, Beloved Princess is a perfect claim.

What’s also bothering me is the fact that RT hasn’t answered why he townread Luna that early in the game. Cause that’s the only reason he would listen to him and hammer. It seems like a convenient excuse to hammer and prevent further discussion.

I just don’t want Pie to do it and I’ll say why after it’s done

So why not?

The logic in the above is that, if RT really was scum, he was planning to pass the fake claim to a teammate… not for himself.

But then again, Vader claimed 70s and I know what Whiteflame is… it’s a 90s game as he said.

So both teammate theories are a bust there. Bolsters RT towncase.

Your analysis is correct but you’re forgetting the TP though. If he’s a TP Survivor, Beloved Princess is a perfect claim for him.

To keep you honest: what is the justification for you role?

See my response to Casey on page 7

I would be careful about this. I spotted that this was your idea sometime during the night phase. Mafia, who is already thinking about who they’re going to select, may have spotted it as well. If I can figure it out from my pov, they definitely can.

thus the counterplay would be to waive a mason and then claim they are masoned with your teammate. Only one of them needs to do this; the other can use their mason on someone else

That’s fair. Although I would argue the reason you were even thinking about it is because I discussed there being a tactic. Probably should’ve been more subtle about it.

Why does being Tetris make you Popular?

Regardless, I'm fine testing this out, no reason not to.

VTL Pie

Tetris is one of the most popular games. PM talks about it having the most copies sold

I don't make anything of Rex reading RT's typo literally, but this does actually raise a good point that I was actually thinking about even before you posted this: even if RT was a bog-standard Beloved Princess, why would that mean immediately lynching him? It doesn't make sense. It's like using the logic of "this player is either scum or town, that's two options, so we have a 50/50 shot of hitting scum if we lynch them" but completely unironically. Not to mention that if there's a doctor in the game, protecting the Princess only makes sense, and there probably is some kind of protective role in the game. So I don't think it's a given that RT dies tonight if he's town.

Im having a hard time following the logic on this? We’ve lynched Beloved Princesses before. That2 comes to mind in Russian Mafia. We were right that she wasn’t BP, but she was sadly town.

I will say, however, that the way Rex has been hard pushing RT tells me that they're most likely unpaired. I can't 100% rule out a bus but I don't think it's likely at this early point in the game. I feel like one of those two should probably be the lynch today.

After my conversations with REF in PM, I’m reasonably sure he’s Town. I’m 100% more confident in RT being scum

But also in a game like this, I really don't think that it would've been optimal to kill Luna. The FoS is obviously on RT for the quickhammer on Icon with a day left. You would likely want to leave Luna alive as even he would likely agree that's a bad mechanic and I don't think he would've done that even as scum. So the obvious choice as scum to frame him a bit so it's a sub optimal play. Plus is RT killing the only person that can potentially give town cred???

Idk I think that hammer is sus af but at the same time I just don't think RT would kill their mason like that

Issue is that this is WIFOM, plus if Luna had some sort of PR, it makes sense to kill him. Characterwise, Rolewise, and Behaviorwise, RT is scum.

Whoever did this, you have no life. Literally it took me an hour to get like 30K.

Catching up now

So, to move things along, I'm just going to say that I know that Vader didn't get a chance to use his Mason. It took a while before we could get a sustained conversation going because he spent much of the first DP busy IRL. It's a bit of a towntell to me, since I don't think his scum partner(s) would have stayed quiet if he hadn't used it. I haven't asked him for much information so far on his role.

I actually think it’s null. He could’ve purposely not selected an individual as a strat to hopefully void my plan. But I also think the inactivity itself is null.

Since I've gotten a good deal more insight into characters than most, I'll just say that I thought the theme split was very basic, but my townreads tell me otherwise. I strongly townread Mharman, and I have good reason to believe that Ragnar is also town. There is a world in which I see them as a scum team, but that seems unlikely. From the limited conversation we have had thusfar, I'd say both Shining (Earth) and Vader are townleans. 

I’m curious as to your reason for these reads? Is it behavioral or mechanical?

That leaves Casey, Pie, RT and REF. Behaviorally, I have some reason to buy Pie as town, though it's mainly because I think he's been pretty consistent in his efforts at keeping the game organized and scumhunting. Seen him do both as scum, so it's not a strong read. So I think there's at least one scum between Casey, RT and Rex. 

I’m fine claiming right now as my role is confirmable. I probably should’ve claimed DP1, but I wanted to keep it hidden for a possible scum NK and cause I always die first.

I’m Tetris, and I require one additional vote to be lynched, so basically the Popular Townie. Mikal clarified that I deactivate at MYLO/LYLO.

RT's claim definitely sets me on edge, seems like it's there chiefly to dissuade a lynch and explain why he'd survive NPs. He didn't say he was the Beloved Princess, he just says that he travels through time, which makes some sense with Chrono Trigger. Just because the train makes sense, though, doesn't mean I'm townreading him for it. Don't like that he claimed that quickly when all the value in his role disappears the moment it's claimed.

I don’t buy it either. Super Mario Pros or something about Princess Peach seems like a better candidate. His play has been erratic at best too

Rex's response to RT's claim confused me, since he seemed to be presenting lynching RT as a win-win regardless of whether he's telling the truth, which is not accurate. His contributions so far just haven't been enough for me to form an opinion on him otherwise.

Ya I’m still null on REF as well.

I'm pretty null on Casey. Questioning of people's reads is all fine and dandy, but the lack of reads from them make it difficult to see what Casey's perspective actually is. They've shared thoughts on RT and I can understand targeting Ragnar, so that's a start and I'll let Casey cook with the other reads since they've been more forthcoming.

I townread Casey still. The play just seems more townie to me than scum Casey

Of these three, I need more from Rex. A set of reads would be a good start, especially since he got a piece of Pie.

VTL Rex

Anyway, Whiteflame is town. I couldn't really get a good read on him on our mason DM and we haven't really been talking, but we did share our characters. I think if Whiteflame outed what Lu atics character is, then hes town. Although, he could still be scum.

This makes no sense. What are you trying to say?

Ok so the POE idea I have is as follows:

Scum are already in a PM with their faction. So they chose a townie or a possible TP with their Mason ability to work out more info/help their play. That means we can eliminate all the current combos of 2 as scum pairings:

Mharman/WF

Casey/Ragnar

Theist/Luna

Whiteflame/Vader

REF/Pie

Earth/Whiteflame

Ragnar/Whiteflame

Pie/Casey

Also, because WF is with 4 people right now, he’s far less likely to be scum because he could only be scum with Pie/Casey/REF/Theist.

As we get closer and closer to MYLO/LYLO, the solve becomes easier. Mikal and scum probably never even thought of this strategy and I don’t blame them.

1. Vader - None
2. Mag1c - Whiteflame 
3. Casey - Ragnar
4. RT - Lunatic
5. Whiteflame - Vader
6. REF - Pie
7. Shining - Whiteflame
8. Ragnar - Whiteflame
9. Pie - Casey

Lunatic - Whiteflame

Icon - None

—————————————

1. Vader - ??? - ???
2. Mag1c - ??? - ???
3. Casey - ??? - ???
4. RT - Chrono Trigger - Beloved Princess
5. Whiteflame - Kirby - ???
6. REF - ??? - ???
7. Shining - ??? - ???
8. Ragnar - ??? - ???
9. Pie - ??? - ???

Lunatic - Super Mario Bros - ???

Icon - Frogger - Compulsive Hider

Has everyone said who they selected for the Mason?

1. Vader 
2. Mag1c - Whiteflame 
3. Casey - Ragnar
4. RT - Lunatic
5. Whiteflame - Vader
6. REF - Pie
7. Shining - Whiteflame
8. Ragnar 
9. Pie - Casey

Lunatic - Whiteflame

Icon - None

—————————————

1. Vader - ??? - ???
2. Mag1c - ??? - ???
3. Casey - ??? - ???
4. RT - Chrono Trigger - Beloved Princess
5. Whiteflame - Kirby - ???
6. REF - ??? - ???
7. Shining - ??? - ???
8. Ragnar - ??? - ???
9. Pie - ??? - ???

Lunatic - Super Mario Bros - ???

Icon - Frogger - Compulsive Hider

Can’t say I like the role claim from Theist. Beloved Princess is a very common fake claim that scum use. Also, why Chrono Trigger over something like Super Mario. Like the entire goal of the game is to save Princess Peach right?

This plus the quick hammer and the pot shot he took at me is just scummy imo. Curious what everyone thinks.

I’m headed off for the night. Before I head off, while I won’t name specific people (they can clarify themselves), I can confirm that there were four people who recruited me yesterday. I was surprised too, didn’t realize I was that popular.

The irony is real cause I thought everyone liked Pie

For full claim:

If I'm lynched during the day phase the next day phase is skipped. If mafia kills me in the night the next day phase is skipped. Basically it is in everyone's best interest in keeping me alive. 

character and justification?

VTL Theist

for full claim

Who did yall select to Mason

I was talking to Lunatic in our PM. He said to go ahead and hammer. 

So you townread Lunatic I presume with your choice. Why did you townread Luna?

1. Vader 
2. Mag1c - Whiteflame 
3. Casey - Ragnar
4. RT - Lunatic
5. Whiteflame 
6. REF - Pie
7. Shining 
8. Ragnar 
9. Pie - Casey

Lunatic - Whiteflame

Icon - None

—————————————

1. Vader - ??? - ???
2. Mag1c - ??? - ???
3. Casey - ??? - ???
4. RT - ??? - ???
5. Whiteflame - Kirby - ???
6. REF - ??? - ???
7. Shining - ??? - ???
8. Ragnar - ??? - ???
9. Pie - ??? - ???

Lunatic - Super Mario Bros - ???

Icon - Frogger - Compulsive Hider

1. Vader 
2. Mag1c - Whiteflame 
3. Casey - Ragnar
4. RT - Lunatic
5. Whiteflame - Vader
6. REF - Pie
7. Shining 
8. Ragnar 
9. Pie - Casey

Lunatic - Whiteflame

Who did you select for the Mason

1. Vader 
2. Mag1c - Whiteflame
3. Casey - Ragnar
4. RT - Lunatic
5. Whiteflame 
6. REF - Pie
7. Shining 
8. Ragnar 
9. Pie - Casey

Lunatic - Whiteflame

I think this is everything. REF chose me and Casey told me that she selected Ragnar

Why’d you end the DP yesterday?

Okay, so it’s 11. Everyone needs to reveal who they chose to create a Mason with. After that, I’ll reveal how it helps with scum hunting.

I chose Casey

What are your reads?