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ILikePie5

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ILikePie5
Yeah sorry been occupied

My thoughts are that once you lynch me you're gonna go to MYLO tomorrow, scum will NK wylted and that means the 3P Caroler will be in MYLO with you. You'll probably lynch within Rex or Mago or Luna and if you hit the 3P that's GG. So while I get the logic on lynching me it leaves you with a thin fucking margin for error next DP and I ONLY JUST LIFTED MYSELF FROM LAST PLACE IN ELO 😭


Do you understand why we have to lynch you today? Our alternative is lynching scum with 100% accuracy. If we mislynch a townie today, your role ends the game on the spot based on the math that I calculated.


I have no idea how much I can trust Pie that he would never claim Roleblocker as scum, could be wifom.


I gave the disclaimer early


Luna I remain skeptical about because scum are given investigatives frequently and he could've known about the IC from that.


It would’ve had to have been a scum Rolecop, which is a possibility. Oracle does function differently here based on MU and MS, but we also have custom roles claimed as well.


If either of those 2 is scum and makes it to MYLO we're probably fucked, I'm pretty sure they could control the narrative effectively enough to mislynch (it's a compliment take it brochachos). Rex could too but only if he showed up enough lol

I've said before I buy Shining's claim

Mago and Rex are just unconfirmed nulls. One or both could be scum trying to farm towncred by defending me since they know I'm gonna flip town and my lynch is inevitable atp anyway

I'll be on later tonight


If you flip town, Mago is almost certainly a scum/TP Caroler as I explained earlier. Just depends on which one, and he’ll likely just our at that point and town loses if the TP can joint win, which is just bad game balance

ILikePie5
Even as tp caroler given it's free town cred and most likely 1x do he wouldn't be targeted by scum


If he claims that, scum kill him and he loses because TP win con per OP is survivor.


Watch Wryly be the TP tho. I would laugh if that happened

ILikePie5

Pie - Mikal - Odd Night Roleblocker

Lunatic - Vader - Oracle

REF - Ultra - Ascetic

Shining - ILikePie5 - Hated/Popular

Wylted - Mharman - Innocent Child

Wryly - Wylted - 1x Dirty Bomb

Magoroth - Kohai - Reroller (NP1=Deflector)



Banana - Lunatic - Inventor (Doctor, Tracker, Neighborizer)

Kohai - Whiteflame - Lie Detector


ILikePie5

I honestly think Wryly is town here and it’s Rex/Mago or Shining/Mago


Realistically though, I think that implies that there is a TP Caroler, and its probably Mago, which means it’s it’s Rex/Luna or Shining/Luna because of the Carol

ILikePie5

Unless anyone has anything to say, we probably are forced to lynch Wryly here even though she’s town imo. We can’t afford to risk a mislynch on someone else


VTL Wryly

ILikePie5
Regardless of wryly's flip it looks like a pretty good scum pool there. The game is pretty winnable from that position 


What are your reads if Wryly flips town? You’re prob the NK



ILikePie5

Assuming Wryly flips town. Wylted is certainly the NK. That leaves:


Pie

Luna

Mago

REF

Shining


Theoretically there should be another Carol, so that helps. Luna will get a role revealed, so that gives more info. Mago will have another role.

ILikePie5

The way Wryly described her role, procedurally, we are forced to lynch her. Only way we get out of it is if we lynch scum. Otherwise, a mislynch on a townie is an autoloss

ILikePie5
Dunno if I agree with that list. Pie could be a scum Roleblocker and Lunatic could be a scum Role Cop or something. Agree on Mago and Rex. Shining I townread, unless Pie is also scum and lying for him about the message. The main thing for me with Pie is that if town does not have a Roleblocker then town had only a 1x Doctor for protection. It's not outside the realm of possibility though.


This is WIFOM, but I’m not claiming Roleblocker as scum. Ever

ILikePie5

Alright so let’s see who CANNOT be the Caroler:


  1. Wylted - Confirmed Innocent Child
  2. Pie - Roleblocker confirmed
  3. Lunatic - Knew about Inno Child
  4. Shining - Visited me + Passive
  5. Wryly - Given the Carol


That leaves exactly REF and Mago who could be the Caroler. Alternatively, Wryly is scum.