I also say it’s super easy to fake a guilty on your partner but faking guilty on a town is way too risky
I also say it’s super easy to fake a guilty on your partner but faking guilty on a town is way too risky
Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 12:42 AM (post #113)
My results are 3 for 3, and the only way they’re fake is if I threw away three separate guaranteed wins to set up a coin flip.
Which is quiet easy if you are scum.
Question when was the last time we had a game with a cop that didn’t include either godfather, milller, lawyer, framer or other way to clearly mess with the cop’s accuracy?
I'm about to go to sleep. Gonna make my final points
Regarding Luna's case:
1) Why would I "slip" the existence of a vanillaizer?
2) I've shown in multiple previous games that roles like this is what I'm always thinking about especially when I have a role that is confirmable.
3) Blackmail chain: I had thought that there was scum between helz / mag1c for reasons I stated earlier in the game. In the end we were forced to lynch mag1c
My case:
1) I encourage you to review again the interacitons between luan / thoth. Both sussed each other but never voted or hard pushed each other. Luna had multiple opporunities to vote thoth / wagon him day 1. He chose to keep his vote on shining.
2) Mech:
I'll say more later but I'm getting really tired
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:05 PM (post #105)
Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 10:10 PM (post #97)
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 10:10 PM (post #96)
Anyway, taking a break for now. I'm not planning to make the decision tonight, and I'll continue to do the back and forth for a while before I call it. I want to sleep on this and make sure I'm not just overfocusing on a couple of elements that stand out to me.
What questions do you want me to answer specifically
You know, I don't think I have any specific ones yet. I'm more trying to develop what I see as a pattern of behavior that's giving me some insight into how you were thinking at various times. Might change as I dig deeper, but for now, I'm at least getting some clarity from just reading through the ISO.
Sounds good. I’m gonna take a break for a bit.
After this game I seriously need a long mental health break
Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 10:27 PM (post #102)
Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 8:26 PM (post #101)
I just realised there is an interesting mirror between night kills / actions between this game and last game when luna and pie were scum.
N1: They killed banana and they had pie as one of their strongest scum reads
N2: They killed Mag1c and mag1c was voting luna
Not really a mirror at all, I don't see how n1 has any correlation and magic never voted me here.
But mag1c did mention you as a top scum read. Funny how 2 players who sussed you were all targeted. Mag1c was blackmailed and Noah was night killed. Those kills and actions have your finger prints all over them
I just realised there is an interesting mirror between night kills / actions between this game and last game when luna and pie were scum.
N1: They killed banana and they had pie as one of their strongest scum reads
N2: They killed Mag1c and mag1c was voting luna
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 10:10 PM (post #96)
Anyway, taking a break for now. I'm not planning to make the decision tonight, and I'll continue to do the back and forth for a while before I call it. I want to sleep on this and make sure I'm not just overfocusing on a couple of elements that stand out to me.
What questions do you want me to answer specifically
Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 10:06 PM (post #93)
Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 8:01 PM (post #88)
Scum don’t kill their best mis lynch candidate. They keep him around.
Exactly. And you know very well I'm the easiest mislynch around. If I was scum why would I put myself in a 2 v 1 situation with two of the top players on the site that are typically very difficult to lynch?
Noah would have been the perfect person for me to keep around if I was scum. He was sussing Luna and was following my footsteps nearly the entire game. Keep that in mind as I always keep Noah alive.
Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 10:00 PM (post #86)
Kohai, if you want to follow the trail, follow all of it. Mag1c’s top sus wasn’t me, it was Helz, “solid scum.” I was a “much lighter” second. After he got blackmailed, the only thing he could do was vote Helz. And the very first person to jump on that vote was you, DP2 #13. WF flagged that himself in DP2: “I didn’t like the early jumping on the same vote with Mag1c.” The Blackmailer silenced Mag1c, his vote landed on Helz, you piled on, and that Helz vs Mag1c fight is what got town Mag1c lynched. The trail of blood points at Thoth just as much. Mago died voting him, and Thoth was scum. And Noah’s own N1 plan was a redirect between you and me, with a “strong scum read on one” of us. His sus wasn’t only on me.
In what world do I kill Noah n2 over someone like you? Noah had me as solid town read. If I was scum I'd easily have been abe to manipulate him given that he was following my footsteps nearly the entire game.
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:59 PM (post #85)
Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 9:43 PM (post #77)
WF, fair read, and I appreciate you giving the towntells their due. On being hands off with Thoth in DP2: I’d point out you did the exact same thing. In your #280 you called Thoth “the most probable person to be his scum partner,” then voted Mag1c in #288, because DP2 was the WF vs Mag1c question and we all treated that as the lynch. I was in the same spot. I did put Thoth on the spot in #254 and told him he was still a top problem we had to deal with, but I wasn’t going to split votes away from the main question on an activity read. When I had a result, I voted him.
There's a difference between stating that I think I know the likely team and specifically putting attention on one of them (in this case, Mag1c) with the aim of getting to the other (Thoth) based on the flip. I don't see that kind of reasoning from you in your posts, and while you put some attention and Mag1c and me, there wasn't a clear decision that I could see. I do see you putting Thoth on the spot, but never stating a clear intent to vote or actually voting. I agree that changed in DP3.
Also keep in mind we were almost forced to lynch mag1c that day. If he was towna nd we lynched outside him we could still have lost on the spot if he failed his blackmail challenge and got killed as a result. Plus there was no further contribution from him
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:54 PM (post #82)
Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:38 PM (post #76)
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:36 PM (post #75)
Luna -
Going to get this out of the way first, Luna's had a couple of towntells over the course of the DP that I'm considering. They're peppered into the DP at various points, e.g. asking Savant to ping Thoth, the "derp" moment with the uncertainty about the lack of an NP, and the confusion over Noah's NK. I'm still considering them and whether they were purposely included, but I am giving him a bit of credit for them (particularly the derp since Thoth briefly called him out for his lack of familiarity with the DP structure).
Luna has been playing mafia long enough to know how to find the answers to these questions. It is very easy to fake derp yourself (I know because I've done it myself).
With regards to their d1 interactions - Luna had plenty of opportunity to push for a thoth lynch but does not. He stays on shinning. He asks Shining who he wants to lynch. When shining says Thoth he stays on Thoth.
Yeah, like I said, it's plausible he just did this to sprinkle in town tells purposefully. It's plausible.
I think you mean when Shining says Thoth, he stayed on Shining. I don't see any votes on Thoth from Luna before DP3.
Yeah that's what I meant.
Both Luna and Thoth sussed each other but neither voted each other until day 3
Ask yourself: Why is Noah the n2 kill and why is Mag1c the person blackmailed?
Pay attention to this
Magoroth just voted Thoth, they voted Shining and stated they would be willing to switch to Thoth or Noah.
https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8f/epsteins-island-mafia-dp1?comment_number=320
Also pay attention to the night kills and actions:
1) Magoroth was killed N1 voting Thoth
2) Mag1c was blackmailed n1 and had Luna as his second sus
https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8f/epsteins-island-mafia-dp1?comment_number=285
3) Noah died n1 sussing Luna
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:36 PM (post #75)
Luna -
Going to get this out of the way first, Luna's had a couple of towntells over the course of the DP that I'm considering. They're peppered into the DP at various points, e.g. asking Savant to ping Thoth, the "derp" moment with the uncertainty about the lack of an NP, and the confusion over Noah's NK. I'm still considering them and whether they were purposely included, but I am giving him a bit of credit for them (particularly the derp since Thoth briefly called him out for his lack of familiarity with the DP structure).
Luna has been playing mafia long enough to know how to find the answers to these questions. It is very easy to fake derp yourself (I know because I've done it myself).
With regards to their d1 interactions - Luna had plenty of opportunity to push for a thoth lynch but does not. He stays on shinning. He asks Shining who he wants to lynch. When shining says Thoth he stays on Thoth.
Think about it this way
Which flavor is more likely to be in tbe game: Bill Clinton or Stephen Hawking?
If I were popular scum then I’d need to have been able to claim my role + immediately figure out a possible character / justification that fits. From scum POV Clinton is highly likely to he in the game (Luna himself admitted it). So I would have very little time to concut a fake claim and reverse engineer justification
Read Thoth’s ISO. There’s very little mention of Luna in their posts and almost no interactions.
Same with Luna.
They avoid talking to each other or snout each other
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 1:50 PM (post #60)
I’d look at it as each counter matching what it’s countering. Town’s one-shot roles got one-shot counters, Strongman for the doc/BP and Ninja for the one-shot tracker/watcher. The one role that keeps going every night got the one counter that’s permanent. The Vanillizer is the only ability in this game that shuts a role off for good, and the cop is the only role that really cares about that.
Strongman was one shot, but countered three different shots (my BP and the 2X Doc). Ninja countered two separate uses of different one shot roles with one shot of its own. So, no, I don't buy that it's one shot roles getting one shot counters. I also just don't agree that the Cop would be the only role that cares about the Vanillaizer. I cared about it and I just lost a single-use BP. Anyone losing any roles "cares" about it.
With the clock, this game was always max 4 days with forced lynches, so 3 nights. “Unlimited” works out to 3 checks, which is basically the same as the Inventor’s 3 one-shot items. It fits the setup more than you’d think.
The Inventor probably bears the least resemblance to your role out of the available active roles beyond mine, but let's go with it. The Inventor could give out a maximum of two shots of investigative roles, all to other people whom the user may or may not trust, yet yours allows you personally to investigate 3 other people and that's equivalent? I don't see it.
You said yourself DP1 that scum may have had prep time and we shouldn’t trust fast claims at face value. Asking about Clinton is low risk for scum. He’s near guaranteed to be in an Epstein game, and it confirms he isn’t taken. DJT would be the obvious one, but you already had him.
Yeah, and that's always been a consideration, but it's an extra factor that I can't ever be certain of. Weird that you'd say asking about Clinton is low risk when you just said he was the most obvious pick to be in this game.
This. Do you really think Hawking is in the game but Clinton isn’t?
Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:31 PM (post #51)
Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:25 AM (post #47)
The Noah kill only makes sense because of their Luna sus.
Kohai, the Noah kill makes way more sense mechanically than as a read thing. Noah claimed a 2x redirector usable on odd nights, which meant N3 was the first night he could act. A redirector can push the NK onto scum or shift it away from its target. That’s the last thing any scum wants live going into the endgame, so he was the obvious kill no matter who scum were. His sus on me was “you explained too fast,” and nobody picked it up. WF had already set Noah aside DP2. Scum don’t need to kill someone no one is listening to. And killing the guy sussing you is the most obvious finger-point there is, which is exactly why it makes a good frame. Same thing I said about Mag1c’s blackmail being used to frame Helz in DP2. “Follow the trail of blood” doesn’t hold up either. Mago died N1 voting Thoth, and Thoth was scum. If scum avoided kills that point at themselves, that one never happens. The kills in this game went to threatening roles, not to whoever was sussing who.
Please explain how redirector is threatening compared to the other claims
Follow the trail of blood.
The Noah kill only makes sense because of their Luna sus.
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 1:19 PM (post #43)
Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 1:16 PM (post #41)
Ask yourself: Why does w!me kill Noah if all people? Especially since he was strong sussing Luna
Maybe. Uncertainty surrounding how he'd use his Redirector would have been a concern for anyone, and I know I wasn't buying into the every odd night use of the role. It is interesting that he died, though, given that he was sussing Luna. You'd think his choice of target would have been Luna himself, though I guess Thoth could've carried out the kill.
In what world does the mafia team have
Popular blackmailer
JOAT: 1x vanilla, strongman, and ninja
Have you ever seen a popular that has any additional powers other than that?
Ask yourself: Why does w!me kill Noah if all people? Especially since he was strong sussing Luna
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 1:13 PM (post #39)
Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:09 PM (post #36)
Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:04 AM (post #33)
mafia has counter to doctor and tracker but not to cop!?
Vanillizer counters cop.
I'm hesitant to buy into that. Vanillaizer counters PRs, not Cop specifically, and scum clearly had a response to the 1X Tracker and Watcher roles that Mag1c could've given out. Why not have a response to the other investigative role that has 3X or more shots?
^^ This. 100% this.
mafia has counter to doctor and tracker but not to cop!?
Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:54 PM (post #26)
Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 10:34 AM (post #6)
Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 12:33 PM (post #5)
And there's the confirmation of the Vanillaizer.
Which makes me paranoid of Luna.
I have seen Luna hard bus like this before
The biggest argument against a bus here is that whiteflame was a prime suspect all game. I have 0 reason to town confirm him by opting for thoth. Helz was wanting to kill outside of thoth all of last day phase, we managed to convince him to vote thoth. For me to have bussed I would have purposely had to choose the path of most resistance, and have opted into confirming whiteflame by killing the vanillizer. Makes no sense. Scum could have won yesterday.
1. I’ve seen you pull shit like this before
2. I can’t even count how many times in LyLo that I’ve seen scum hard bus
I’ll be on later after work
the game is jn your hands.
Well here we go.