Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:44 PM (post #204)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:40 PM (post #200)

I’m gonna be going to bed within the next 15ish minutes. Last call to ask me any final questions.

I’m kinda tired of repeating the same points ad nauseum

He's doing his due dilligence here, and I think he's exploring both sides pretty thoroughly, which is more than most players would do in his choose, myself included.m

Agreed with that. I always commend wf for being thorough.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on

Every result has been checked against reality.

Wnich again is quite easy for scum.

I’m gonna be going to bed within the next 15ish minutes. Last call to ask me any final questions.

I’m kinda tired of repeating the same points ad nauseum

Around 10 hours or so remaining. I’m going to sleep soon. Feel free to ask me any final questions though I feel like I’ve said everything already.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 9:15 PM (post #188)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:40 PM (post #183)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 6:37 PM (post #182)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:28 PM (post #179)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 5:47 PM (post #174)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

Yes. It's clear that scum was planning to bus Thoth. What motive do I have to tell Thoth to fake that he was blackmailed?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Faking red checks on town is a very risky move for scum. For one, there is still the unknown of whether or not yourself or another town member could clear you. Second, if you are going ot fake claim cop you're gonna have go give us something. It's very easy for scum to fake cop results.

You’re going to need to get into this more. In the context of DP3 where we all largely bought his Cop claim, what was the risk of claiming a red check? You seemed poised to VTL me for a while without a red check, so did Helz. Why not take advantage of that?

I hade made it abundanelty clear in the day phase that I was paranoid of luna. If there ended up being a 1v1 between you and Luna there's a very strong risk that I'd come around and end up voting luna.

and look, post # 5

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=5

"My main worry is a Helz / Luna team or a Luna / Thoth team."

Called it.

So faking a guilty on you was very risky. Especially since I was already questioning my read on you originally

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=3

the Big WIfOM question; Would wf claim vanillaized?

So from luna's POV a 1v1 between the two of you would have been too risky

So your argument is that the lynch choice wasn't a given, and that Luna's decision to give a red check on Thoth instead of you or me was driven by the belief that he needed to establish distance between the two of them because, at least at the time, it looked like the focus would be on Thoth and Luna. Am I summarizing that correctly?

Exactly. The lynch choice wasn’t a given and there were far too many risks for Luna to try and pull that off.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 6:59 PM (post #184)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:35 PM (post #181)

I still feel like I'm repeating myself ad nauseum and don't feel like you're actually listening to me. Luna's behavior doesn't match what we'd expect from a cop. That right there is the entire solve.

I’ve acknowledged those issues, dude. I’m focusing in on the areas that don’t match what I’d expect from Luna as scum, not those issues I feel have been discussed. I appreciate the repetition, but I’m not in the business of rehashing what I think we’ve already covered.

Anyway, concert. I’ll check in afterwards.

Alright. Enjoy the concert

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 6:37 PM (post #182)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:28 PM (post #179)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 5:47 PM (post #174)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

Yes. It's clear that scum was planning to bus Thoth. What motive do I have to tell Thoth to fake that he was blackmailed?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Faking red checks on town is a very risky move for scum. For one, there is still the unknown of whether or not yourself or another town member could clear you. Second, if you are going ot fake claim cop you're gonna have go give us something. It's very easy for scum to fake cop results.

You’re going to need to get into this more. In the context of DP3 where we all largely bought his Cop claim, what was the risk of claiming a red check? You seemed poised to VTL me for a while without a red check, so did Helz. Why not take advantage of that?

I hade made it abundanelty clear in the day phase that I was paranoid of luna. If there ended up being a 1v1 between you and Luna there's a very strong risk that I'd come around and end up voting luna.

and look, post # 5

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=5

"My main worry is a Helz / Luna team or a Luna / Thoth team."

Called it.

So faking a guilty on you was very risky. Especially since I was already questioning my read on you originally

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=3

the Big WIfOM question; Would wf claim vanillaized?

So from luna's POV a 1v1 between the two of you would have been too risky

I still feel like I'm repeating myself ad nauseum and don't feel like you're actually listening to me. Luna's behavior doesn't match what we'd expect from a cop. That right there is the entire solve.

"Could you point me to the posts where you saw him trying to solve?"

Yes

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8f/epsteins-island-mafia-dp1?comment_number=393

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8f/epsteins-island-mafia-dp1?comment_number=267

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8f/epsteins-island-mafia-dp1?comment_number=290

"Could you give me examples of similar behavior from previous games, particularly DP1 and early DP2?"

His ISO felt simiilar to his iso in from mafia

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 5:47 PM (post #174)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

Yes. It's clear that scum was planning to bus Thoth. What motive do I have to tell Thoth to fake that he was blackmailed?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Faking red checks on town is a very risky move for scum. For one, there is still the unknown of whether or not yourself or another town member could clear you. Second, if you are going ot fake claim cop you're gonna have go give us something. It's very easy for scum to fake cop results.

Barely over 12 hours left

I'm here. I've really feel like I said all I could at this point. Just ask yourself the following questions:

1) Does Luna's D2 behavior match that of a cop with a n1 inno on Helz?

2) Does his behavior match up with his day 1 bandwagoning the hypos?

3) Does the mech and flavor add up?

Luna's claim does not match either the flavor, mechanics, nor his behavior.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

At this point I feel like I"m just repeating myself ad nauseum and just screaming into a void with no one even bothering to listen to me

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 1:39 PM (post #166)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 1:35 PM (post #164)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 1:33 PM (post #163)

I'm going to let you guys cook with responses for a while. I know Luna will be longer, but I'll plan to pick this back up towards the end of the workday and see if Kohai has posted any more details. More is better in this case, these short responses aren't really telling me much.

Fair points.

If you were forced to vote right this second who would you vote for and why?

I'm not going to engage with that, sorry. I get the sentiment, but I feel I need to get a more in-depth conversation going between the two of us before I can make a clear call. I have a stronger basis for how I'm seeing Luna right now than I do for you, so that means the decision would be colored by that lack of clarity.

Fair. I get off work at 330 then have Hebrew school till 5. I’ll be on aound 515 and we can hash things out

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 1:33 PM (post #163)

I'm going to let you guys cook with responses for a while. I know Luna will be longer, but I'll plan to pick this back up towards the end of the workday and see if Kohai has posted any more details. More is better in this case, these short responses aren't really telling me much.

Fair points.

If you were forced to vote right this second who would you vote for and why?

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 1:23 PM (post #161)

A bit better. He's definitely indicating that, if he was the Cop, he'd drop some hints in the DP. He hasn't indicated that he did, and aside from some light read changes, I didn't see anything. Maybe that means he hadn't established it as his fake claim.

This is the only explanation that makes sense.

Maybe that's a misdirect aimed at giving scum less of an indication that he's the Cop.

But that makes no sense. If he himself admitted hypo targets were a good idea how would we possibly have figured out he got an N1 inno on Helz jr he actually was the cop?

mobike posting will respond to other stuff later

You’ve got some ‘splainin to do.

The behavior slip gets even worse. During day 1 when Helz was asking for Hypos his reaction

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8f/epsteins-island-mafia-dp1?comment_number=314

This part actually makes a lot of sense to me. How many times do we lose cops who got innocents on someone and no one knew who the innocent was? While we don't have np0 on this site often, its definitely something that can be useful in the future. I don't think this exposes a cop if every person has to do it, and it doesn't tell them who they are going to cop, only who they would have if they did already. I just disagree with this as a FOS point. The rest is kind of meh in regards to helz. Open to him being scum but I don't know if he's the dp1 lynch based on anything I've seen so far. Shining has done nothing since posting he was here.m

His behavior doesn’t match. Ask yourself: If he’s the cop why doesn’t he drop hyupos or hints? Especially after accepting that mechanic day 1

Why didn’t you drop any hints day 2 that you had an inno on Helz? After seeing Helz drop hypo requests you’d think that you’d hypo your results.

Hold up. I caught a huge slip from Luna.

He claimed n1 that he had an inno on Helz N1. Go through Luna’s day 2 ISO carefully. At no point did he try and hint to his result, which is something any cop should do. But it gets even worse. He stared

What I find interesting about this analysis is how you are removing certain teams based on loosely explained town reads like Noah and thoth, which feel more like vibe reads, and you lumping me in with helz. You are ignoring a helz/magic bus for some reason, but you also think someone like me who is notorious for bussing as scum (I seriously do it every game, even last game I was scum with Pie I bussed him), yet you think I am paired with helz despite never pushing him once and even defending that I wouldn't lynch him dp1. So your proposing that I randomly switched into a meta where I pro buddying my team mate? The whole POE analysis feels far too early to be put

That bold is where the main slip is. A cop with an inno on Helz wouldn’t say that.

Just realized something. This js now the third game where he fake claimed cop. In each of those games he was the last person to claim.

Majoras Mask - Fake claimed cop with inno on Mag1c. He was caught partially because Mag1c flipped wolf

Apocalypse mafia - Claimed cop as well

This game - Claimed cop

It’s very easy to fake claim cop when you are the last to claim. Notice in none of those games was there a direct counter to cop either.

Make of that what you wish

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 10:47 AM (post #144)

You said you were going to ISO him later in that DP. Why didn't that happen?

This past weekend was extraordinarily busy for me. I had shnagogue and Hebrew school + a whole bunch of extra work to get done. I simply didn’t get around to it.

I'd also like to understand the transition to sussing him better, since much of it happened over the course of DP2. You saw that Magoroth sussed him in the previous DP, and even went so far as to ask Thoth whether he had a Vanillaizing role. What led you to ask Luna and Thoth if they had Vanillaizing roles? Walk me through that thought process.

1. Mag died voting Thoth. If a player was night killed by scum then there is probably a strong reason for it. I stated that explicitly in post 87

2. There was some discussion whether or not this role could have been a town silencer or something of that nature. He was one of ten only people who didn’t claim anything yet

On lunch break catching up some

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 10:47 AM (post #144)

I don't want this to be solely between me and Luna, and I do think some points have been brought up that require your attention.

Why did you townread Thoth early in DP2? That did seem off given a lack of contribution by Thoth at the time, and a shift in perspective from recognizing that lack in DP1. You said it was because he was behaviorally consistent with last game. What gave you that impression?

Fair questions. Mainly

1) I felt there was some genuine effort to game solve

2) I felt his ISO was similar to his previous town games

3) Granted he did have two valid excuses (hurricane and sick) so I was giving him more leeway

Will respond to rest later.

Why didn’t you consider the possibility of wf being a godfather?

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 1:00 AM (post #124)

THERE IS A COUNTER, just because you refuse to accept that a vanillizer is a counter, doesn't make it not true. And again, you assume TMI that there isn't a lawyer or godfather in the remaining scum role, which is pretty telling.

This is such an obvious slip. You came in this DP claiming inno on wf and instantly voting me without any of us having breathing space to discuss. Obviously that means you weren’t consider wf as a godfather.

If we ended up lynching Thoth in F5 and you didn’t hard bus / push him then you would have been blatantly obvious in F3

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 12:53 AM (post #119)

Very different scenarios, because in that game there was a reason to bus, in this one there is absolutely no reason to bus.

Thoth was on everyone’s radar. Even if you thought you could get one of us to misvote if we had lynched him you’d be strongly paired with him. Easier to hard bus in F5.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 12:51 AM (post #118)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 10:46 PM (post #114)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 12:42 AM (post #113)

My results are 3 for 3, and the only way they’re fake is if I threw away three separate guaranteed wins to set up a coin flip.

Which is quiet easy if you are scum.

Question when was the last time we had a game with a cop that didn’t include either godfather, milller, lawyer, framer or other way to clearly mess with the cop’s accuracy?

This question is set up on false premises, we don't know the entire game balance yet, we don't know what the remaining scum role has.

WTf are you talking about? We know from Mag1c it’s blackmailer. You really think scum is a popular blackmailer?

That said I've already explained in great depth why a vanillizer also works as a counter to cop here.

No. It. Is. Not. Scum have a direct counter to tracker (ninja) doctor and Bp (strongman) but we are supposed to believe the only counter to cop is vanilla?

There's probably also games where lawyers and godfathers exist, but I am not going to do that research for you, when the cross also applies to your popular since there is plenty of games where scum have popular and outside roles.

The point is pie helped balance this game and I doubt he would give us a cop without a direct counter.