Mestari

Did Mikal ever say when the DP ends?

Valid point. I do bias scumreading players that I don't think provide value to the town.

If I was right about pie after so many people told me to drop my push on him I might retire from debatecraft mafia.

Can you explain why?

What are your opinions on Helz, Banana, Wryly, and Awesome?

That's the point of my comment. You weren't predicating the town cred on Alyssa flipping scum. You spoke as if she will flip scum.

Moreover, I don't really think it counts as a bus when the lynch was inevitable the moment Thoth flipped.

I'm pretty happy with Thoth/Alyssa/Awesome/Shining mafia and Helz 3P.

I think what he wants, and I know what I want, is for you to have opinions about other players in the game and to contribute to solving the game.

Also,

I guess my reaction to Alyssa should get me some town reads.

This sounds like you know Alyssa is flipping scum and you are trying to claim town cred as if she already flipped.

I know exactly who you are referring to. I actually figured this player would be town because they are in opposition to Jin Woo who I thought was likely third party. lol

There's one character who is opposed to Jinwoo but doesn't take part in the raid. Then there's the characters who are involved in the raid and those are not just opposed to Jinwoo, but Korean hunters as a whole.

Sure, but if we're implying Jinwoo is third party, wouldn't Japanese hunter's who actively try to get the Korean hunters killed during the raid make more sense as third party?

Nice call. Seems like a weird thing for scum to say if they already know there's a poisoner.

Fuck it, I'll divulge anyway. Mafia and 3P being given fake claims makes any real character claim inherently suspect. Moreover, we started with 4 mafia and 12-13 town. 2 town were confirmed as main characters. That leaves 10-11 town. For the guild mechanic to make sense, quite a few players would have to need to be recruited to use their abilities. I wager that at least 8 of those 10-11 players are player characters. That still leaves less than half the game as properly benefitting from the recruitment mechanic. I think there's only 2-3 townies outside of Lunatic and Wylted that have story characters.

Eh, Helz being the one to claim him makes it a bit less worthwhile to divulge what I was going to. I thought it was someone else + Helz claiming a real character.

I haven't figured out why Mikal posted the mid day flavor yet, but I also don't care to read into it too much. Jinwoo did explicitly refuse to join the raid. The viewers, us, knew he would be needed for the raid to succeed. I don't see anything big here. I'm not readily going to believe that the mod just decided that he was going to out 3P in the same game that he confirmed 2 town. The game design can only get so town-sided.

On that note, where is the most recent claims list? I have had an understanding of the game's structure that I have been holding back because I didn't think there was enough info to explain it yet. I forgot someone claimed the rich kid. At this point there might be enough openly available information to elucidate.

If the poison is mafia, I think 3P is a Japanese hunter or the leader of the Japanese hunter's guild and I don't know what their power is.

If the poison is 3P, the snake boss is the 3P and they are bulletproof.

In either case, they don't win with the town.

Remember that somebody claimed the character that starts his own guild, which Jinwoo eventually joins. That's a second character that doesn't fuck with the two guilds highlighted in the game. In fact, his recruiting of Jinwoo actively derails the plans of both those guilds. If Jinwoo is 3P, so is that kid. I just don't buy it.

I really don't agree that the OP implies Jinwoo is 3P.

Fixed a word.

I really don't agree that the OP unless Jinwoo is 3P. It's just narrating what happened in the show. At the end of the day he saved the day, and was able to because even though the perspective was that he abandoned the hunters, the reality is from the very beginning he hid his soldiers in their shadows so that he could help if needed. He never really abandoned them, he was only perceived to.

For people who don't know the theme, the main character has an army of shadows that serve as his soldiers. The hunters wanted him to come to the island to help him kill the ants since he's so powerful. His only goal up to this point in the show was to bring his mother out of a coma. He accomplished that so he refused to go to the island and risk harm to himself. However, he did hide his soldiers in the shadows of the hunters who went to the island. He has the power to switch places with his soldiers, so this allowed him to instantly teleport to the island if needed. The raid on the island was televised, and the moment it became clear that the hunters would lose, he teleported to the island and fought the ant king himself.

If the factional kill is poison, then a N1 kill was not denied, just delayed. But even then, telling the town that there would not be a N1 kill helps the town. What's the missing puzzle piece?

My theory has been that the snake boss is the poisoner and they are 3p because the snake has nothing to do with Jeju Island. In that scenario, there's no way the snake wins with the town.

That being said, I'm starting to entertain the idea that mafia either got a 1x poison or their factional night kill was replaced with a poison. I think thematically it's silly for the factional nk to be poison, because only a few ants have it, but that might be splitting hairs. There has to be a balance offset for both confirming two town and denying the mafia a N1 kill.

Part of what goes into airmax/awesome + either Vader or shining is atmosphere. The game doesn't feel influenced by the mafia. It's akin to some solo mafia games I've played in and hosted, like Dexter and World's Fair. It also matches the vibe of early game Salem Witch Trials that had no mafia. We know there's 3 remaining mafia yet the game doesn't feel like there's any mafia beyond Alyssa to me. That tells me they are not actively driving the game.

Vader and shining are the remainder of PoE, sorry I should have clarified more before waisting your time. Everyone not mention I have as town if Alyssa flips mafia.

I reckon it's more important to kill 3P than mafia if 3P has additional kills, but I still prioritize Alyssa over 3P this DP because the flip does significant work for the PoE.

That's exactly what I mean. She never said recruitment was mentioned in her role pm. That's really the last I have to say on it at the moment. We both think Alyssa is scum, independent of how either one of us values the new D2 analysis.

I'm more interested in hearing your thoughts on my position WRT airmax/awesome, Helz, and shining/vader

Wryly

Now let me hear a "fair enough", bitch.

Fair enough, bitch. 😘

Magic, D1 551

more coming. I slightly scumread Helz and Pie, feel conflicted on Alyssa and Kohai. null on everyone else- although Casey's posted more and I need to re-evaluate her

Also worth noting that in D1 167 Magic subtly made it known that they were actively aware TP could be lurking while it wasn't actively being talked about in the game. Good reason for TP to target them.

Magic D1 787

Helz, I agree Mestari is town but his case for it was bad, felt forced. It's weird to me that he wouldn't consider Mestari joking, and instead echoes Kohai's misinterpretation. He's also claimed having a role which I think is mad if he actually has one. Wa also quick to give his character. The lack of concern in both cases is scummy to me. Had some 3p theory which has merit but combined with said lack of concern makes me wonder about projecting 3p. Could be 3p blending in on scumhunting or scum looking for 3p, I can see either.

Still supporting my believe that 3p!Helz targets Magic. The bolded text got me thinking, it would indeed be mad for 3p to claim a pr independent of recruitment because it makes them a NK target and if they die they lose. Then I remember that I believe the 3p is the snake boss, Blue Venom-Fanged Kasaka, and I remembered that its scales were nearly impenetrable and I now believe the poisoner is bulletproof.

Dropping this here.

There was very slight suspicion towards Shining at the end, and a decent amount at Pie and Kohai throughout, but most in-depth commentary was on Helz.

For the record, I'm /out atm. Can't do 2 games at once.

#344 Wryly, could you point out where that was? Thank you.

#354 Helz, I agree with a lot of what you are looking at here. I do question if Mikal would make the poisoning aspect of a TP poisoner a "factional" kill so that being in a guild doesn't screw them. If it does have to be waived for the guild to recruit then it makes sense for a poisoner to decline a guild invite, don't you think?

I'll look back at Magic's reads once I finish catching up.

#356 Wylted, I probably would, but I wonder at this point if I should just play as vanilla so that you and Lunatic can have your wincon fun and Mikal doesn't have to feel like his wincon thing was ignored.

#360 Yeah, the nature of the role is silly, especially if it disables at Mylo/Lylo as Ref's recent post says. If anything, popular is something that makes sense for the character. On the other hand, the reset makes sense for the ant king.

#379 It's been a while, but not horrible. Keep in mind that mafia received fake claims. That in itself makes character claims from the show inherently scummy, but it's too soon to tell what the ratio of player characters vs main characters should be.

Cool, all caught up. I still can't get around Alyssa waiving. I still think the airmax/awesome slot is mafia. I think Helz is TP. Last mafia is probably between shining and vader.

Good morning. After sleeping on things, I'm still good on an Alyssa lynch. I need to finish reading the last of this DP and think about the poisoner a bit.

#153 Only player characters are activated upon recruitment. That being said, lynchproof is not incredibly powerful for mafia the way popular would be.

#178 When did she say she had to be recruited for popular to work?

I'm honestly confused as to how people don't read the mechanics of the game. The idea that Alyssa being and to use powers without being recruited is a scum slip would feel super scum motivated as a push if it weren't for the fact that it's two confirmed townie pushing it. @Lunatic, @wylted, do better.

#181 Forced trains are anti town. Stretching past the point of certainty just demands town start speculating in ways that mafia can exploit. Again, this isn't scummy, it's just theory preaching suboptimal play. I think I might be ego bias against Helz with my reads, kinda like a parent would be disappointed in a child. Going into the game, with the way Helz talked about studying mafia, I expected more from that slot. It just feels like the slot puts forth a lot of effort and doesn't accomplish anything. Like, why are you trying so hard to put a square peg in a triangular hole? You are trying so hard to display higher level strategy that you go beyond being practical in an effort to self validate superiority. I don't know. Maybe I'm getting third party vibes, but not necessarily mafia. Could be town too. I guess I just wish that from all that thought came more results.

#195 Fuck me for having a life to attend to while we spam 3-500 posts a day.

#243 When did Alyssa say that she needed to be recruited to use powers?

#247 What in the stupid? It's much not likely for town!Alyssa to not claim lynchproof than mafia!Alyssa.

#248 It's actually frustrating watching how much effort you put into doing nothing.

#261 I don't like the self vote analysis. Scum should fight tooth and nail as much as town. Self voting as scum is just as game throwing as self voting as town. Also of course Alyssa knew she would be pressured. It was obvious last DP that regardless of the flip she was a target. I'm glad you are confirmed town, TUF.

#328 So this confirms that Alyssa was 1x popular lynchproof. There's a case to be made that that's quite strong as a mafia role. For example, at 2v1 Town can't lynch her. It changes the mathematics of the game. That being said, it's also a 17 person game and requires her to be one of the final 3 for it to matter.

#329 #331 This is exactly what she claimed.

#334 She explained why she voted herself, so help speed up the process of confirming that part of her role.

#342 Rip brother.

There's a snake boss that has poisonous fangs in an earlier dungeon. It has nothing to do with the ants, and thus is probably third party. The ant king can poison too, but it's powerful enough to kill instantly and it would be weird to flavor the factional nk as poison when it's a particular character in the mafia that links to poison. I also reckon that a poisoner third party confirms my theory that SJW is town. Maybe mafia has 1x poison.

I'm trying to think of wincons. Town wants to defeat the ants. Ants want to kill humans. The snake just wants to survive and not have their gate (dungeon) closed? Checks out imo.

I'm going to actually call it here because I don't want my thoughts on the implications of a poisoner to be clouded by fatigue.

Ugh I'm still awake.

#114 A couple. Beru was the strongest Ant and after he died he was turned into a shadow Soldier by Jinwoo. If the theme is human vs not human instead of hunters vs ants then Igris and others work as well. There's an argument that this represents an alignment shift, but if the theme is humans vs not humans then they would still be not human even as SJW's soldiers.

If Wryly could not add 7 spam posts to every page, however, that would make me happy.